Time-limited Policy Research Articles

편성 시간을 제한하는 군집 편성 정책 분석

A vehicle platoon is a group of vehicles that can travel very close to each other safely at high speed. This paper deals with a system in which vehicles arrive at a station according to a Poisson process. Longer platoons are preferred when minimizing energy consumption, as the more vehicles in the platoon, the lower the total energy consumption. However, forming long platoons increases transport delay as vehicles have to wait longer. We consider a platoon formation policy with a time limit, time-limited policy: Platoon formation process begins with vehicles arriving when the station is empty; It lasts until an exact predetermined time limit has passed. This paper analyzes the platoon size and the energy consumption.

Intergovernmental relations as a problem of program budgeting

The article shows the possibility of solving the problem of horizontal budget equalization withinthe framework of the Russian model of program budgeting, implemented through the system of federal, sub-federal governmental programs and municipal programs. To achieve this goal, it is proposed to solve two interrelated tasks: increasing the budgetary self-sufficiency of the subjects of the Russian Federation and redistributing intergovernmental transfers in accordance with their socio-economic characteristics. To solve the first task the necessity of providing the process of management (development, implementation and monitoring) of governmental and municipal programs with the proposed measures aimed at ensuring control of the ratio of budget expenditures for the implementation of social and commercial projects is substantiated. These measures should be complemented with a time-limited policy of redistributing intergovernmental transfers, taking into account the different socio-economic situation of the subjects of the Russian Federation. For this purpose, test indicators have been calculated to determine the extent to which the annual dynamics of the actual distribution of the volumes of intergovernmental transfers between the subjects of the Russian Federation for each of the eight federal districts for the period 2000–2018 corresponds to the criterion proposed by us in previous works. Those were the negative value of the Spearman's ordinal correlation coefficient between the variables “the share of non-repayable receipts” and “the budgetary self-sufficiency potential”. An attempt is made to establish a correlation relationship between the calculated values of these indicators and the socio-economic characteristics of the federal districts. It is concluded that for a correct assessment of the impact of governmental program budgetingon regional development, it is necessary to take into account the parameters of programs at all levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation in the context of a separate territory, i.e. subject of the Russian Federation or their group.

One step forward and two steps back? The UK’s policy response to youth unemployment

ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of the UK’s post-16 education and training system in supporting the young unemployed. It maps the trajectory of a series of time-limited policy initiatives, which have attempted to install a training system for young people alongside containing fluctuating levels of youth unemployment. The impact of the expansion of post-16 full-time educational opportunities for young people, as a means of extending qualification attainment and delaying labour market entry, is also considered. The overall outcome has been the extension of the age-cohort ‘in transition’, and an increasingly fragmented policy landscape, with each of the four UK nations progressively moving in different directions. Despite forty years of government-led youth training interventions, it is suggested that the UK lacks the opportunity structures and support mechanisms needed to enable most young people, and particularly those from disadvantaged groups, to secure and sustain quality jobs and training. The paper concludes by pointing out the immediate priorities in addressing the imminent upsurge in youth unemployment.

State TANF Time Limit and Work Sanction Stringencies and Long-Term Trajectories of Welfare Use, Labor Supply, and Income.

While the 1996 welfare reform increased employment and reduced the participation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program immediately after its inception, little is known about the extent to which the reform and stringencies of time limit and work sanction policy features have impacted individuals in the long term. This study used the Survey of Income and Program Participation 1996, 2001, and 2004 panels (1996–2007) and a difference-in-difference-in-difference design to follow low-skilled single mothers’ trajectories of welfare use, labor supply, and income for 10 years after the welfare reform and compare how these trajectories differ by stringencies of state work sanction and time limit policies. The findings indicate that welfare reform had sustained impacts on reducing welfare use (TANF and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program [SNAP] program) and increasing employment. Stringent work sanction and time limit policies were associated with lower TANF participation rates in the long term, but only short time limit policies were associated with reduced SNAP participation. Neither stringent policy feature increased employment nor income. The differential effects by race were also examined and discussed.

The Effect of Specific Welfare Policies on Poverty

This paper uses monthly SIPP data from 1988 through 2002 and monthly state-level policy data to measure the effects of specific policies on the deep poverty and poverty rates of ever-single mothers and children of ever-single mothers. The 19 specific policies included in the model are grounded in a conceptual framework. More lenient eligibility requirements for welfare receipt and more generous financial incentives to work generally reduce deep poverty, as hypothesized. Welfare time limits are hypothesized to have ambiguous effects on poverty and our results suggest that some stricter time limit policies may decrease deep poverty and poverty rates.

State Welfare Rules, TANF Exits, and Geographic Context: Does Place Matter?*

Abstract This research compares the likelihood of exiting TANF with and without employment and the effects of important state TANF rules on welfare exits in more disadvantaged (large Rustbelt cities and poor southern nonmetro) and less disadvantaged (other metro and other nonmetro) areas during the 1996–2003 post‐welfare reform period. Hierarchical competing risk models using individual‐level data from the 1996–99 and 2001–03 Panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation merged with state‐level data from various sources show that female TANF participants in poor southern nonmetro areas are the least likely to exit TANF with work, and participants in large Rustbelt cities are less likely to exit TANF with work than those in other metro areas. Non‐work TANF exits are more likely to occur in other nonmetro areas than in other metro areas. Importantly, the effects of state welfare rules on TANF exits differ across places of residence. For example, stringent time limit policies promote work exits in large Rustbelt cities but promote non‐work exits in poor southern nonmetro areas. More lenient earned income disregards are significantly related to remaining on TANF in poor southern nonmetro areas but promote work exits in all other places. Findings from this paper imply that states should not take a “one‐size‐fits‐all approach” to reduce welfare caseloads.

The Social and Economic Impact of Sanctions and Time Limits on Recipients of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families

A central feature of the reforms enacted through the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (welfare reform) has been the adoption of strategies to involuntarily remove Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) recipients from the welfare rolls, including increased use of sanctions and time limits on welfare receipt. Drawing on data from a three year panel study of women who had been receiving welfare in a state which adopted stringent sanctioning and time limit policies, we investigate predictors of recipients' TANF status after implementation of welfare reform, and identify differences in post-reform material resources, hardships and quality of life based on TANF status. Almost half of all welfare case closures during the first time period after reforms were implemented through involuntary strategies. Relatively few baseline characteristics predicted different outcomes once welfare time limits and sanctions were implemented. Those who were timed off welfare had substantially lower incomes in the year following their removal. One third of all respondents, regardless of reason for leaving TANF reported having insufficient food, housing problems and lack of access to needed medical care.

Taming the beast: Categorizing state welfare policies: A typology of welfare policies affecting recipient job entry

This paper presents an overall approach, statistical techniques, and a public-use database that can be used for understanding state welfare policies and measuring their relationship with key outcomes of interest, all while learning helpful statistical techniques. We use descriptive statistics and correlations to describe state policies. We find tremendous variation in the types of job entry-related policies states adopted, and that state time limit policies tended to be consistently lenient or strict in 1999. State work requirement and financial incentive policies, however, were less consistent. We use factor analysis to create three summary variables describing state time limit, work requirement, and financial incentive to work policies. We then use cluster analysis to group states into five clusters based on the summary variables. Factor analysis proves more fruitful than cluster analysis for future analysis linking policies to outcomes. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Efficacy of end-user neural network and data mining software for predicting complex system performance

The performance of a university's dial-up modem pool under various time limit policies and customer behavior patterns was studied. Because the system is very complex, simulation offered the only method to obtain a limited set of steady-state performance measure estimates. A more generalized predictive model must be built from the simulated output. Traditional methods available to practitioners for predicting system performance across a range of environmental and decision variables have typically been limited to linear regression models. However, when the system being studied is highly complex and its performance is nonlinear in nature, the effectiveness of linear models can be limited. While more advanced nonlinear methods, such as neural networks, have been shown to perform better than traditional regression analysis in these situations, the knowledge needed to implement them “from scratch” is beyond most practitioners. Fortunately, these advanced methods are now available in ready-to-use desktop software programs, making them more attainable for practitioner use. The efficacy of these end-user programs compared to more traditional methods in practice is of interest. Multiple variable linear regression models were developed for predicting six output measures in a simulation study and were compared to nonlinear regression models developed using a data mining software package (PolyAnalyst 4.3 Evaluation Software from Megaputer Intelligence) and two commercial neural network software packages (Statistica Neural Networks from Statsoft, and Predict from NeuralWorks). Comparisons of the models’ predictive ability were made on both the data used to design the models and on a test set of data. Statistical analysis shows that predictive performance on the test data was usually best with one of the neural network models, but relative performance of the different models varied widely.