Time-averaged Discharge Rate Research Articles

Lava flow daily monitoring: the case of the 19 September–5 October 2022 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise

Taking prompt and effective actions to mitigate risks associated with an effusive eruption greatly depends on the monitoring of lava flow emplacement. Here we report on the monitoring of the lava flow emplaced during the 19 September to 05 October 2022 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) that involves an unprecedentedly large data set acquired using multiple techniques and sensors. These include aerial photogrammetry to construct digital surface models and define lava flow geometry during and after emplacement. Complementary use of multiple satellite sensors (visible, infrared, and radar) allowed lava flow field contour definition and an estimation of time-averaged discharge rate with daily frequency. Evolution of the eruptive cone morphology was also monitored through aerial photogrammetry and radar multi-viewing angle imagery. This combination of data obtained from several institutes and using various techniques—from ground, air and space—allowed detailed tracking of lava flow advance and serves as an example for future eruptions at Piton de La Fournaise and at other active volcanic sites.

Remote volcano monitoring using crowd-sourced imagery and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry: A case study of Oldoinyo Lengai's active pit crater since the 2007–08 paroxysm

Active volcanic craters are highly dynamic geological features that undergo morphological changes on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Such changes have implications for the stability of the edifice, the eruptive style and the associated hazards. However, monitoring the morphological evolution of active craters at high spatial resolution and over long periods of time can be challenging, especially at remote volcanoes. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of Structure-from-Motion Multi-View Stereo photogrammetry technique based on crowd-sourced data, applied to the case study of Oldoinyo Lengai (OL) volcano in northern Tanzania. Following the 2007–08 paroxysm, OL volcano resumed its characteristic effusive activity and started to fill in with lava the newly-formed 300 m wide and 130 m deep pit crater. Monitoring capability is limited at OL due to its location in a remote non-urbanized area, therefore, the eruptive and morphological evolution is poorly constrained (e.g., lava emission rates, number of vents, location of unstable areas), with hazard implications for tourists visiting the summit area. Here we use crowd-sourced images, including Unoccupied Aircraft System (UAS) images, ground-based videos and pictures collected between October 2014 and June 2022, to reconstruct high-resolution topographic time-series of OL's summit crater. With these data, we have generated 7 Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of OL's pit crater spanning the past 8 years, and estimated the emitted volume of lava and the corresponding time averaged discharge rates (TADR). From this we characterize the geomorphological evolution of OL pit crater since the 2007–08 paroxysm and perform a preliminary hazard assessment of the crater area. InSAR COSMO-SkyMed and Sentinel-1 data covering the periods 2013–2014 and 2018–2019 were also used in this study to complement our observations. Our results indicate that the main location of lava emission within the crater floor has repeatedly shifted over the years and that the 2008 cone has experienced a subsidence over time. OL's TADR has increased over the years, reaching values one order of magnitude higher in the period 2021–2022 compared to 2014–2018. Assuming similar TADR in the coming years, the crater could be filled in by lava within the next decade, leading to new lava overflows on the flanks of the volcano.

Monitoring the Mauna Loa (Hawaii) eruption of November–December 2022 from space: Results from GOES-R, Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8/9 observations

Mauna Loa, one of the most actives volcanoes on Earth, is a shield volcano, located on the Island of Hawaii (USA). On 27 November 2022, after about 38 years of quiescence, a new eruptive activity took place at the Moku‘āweoweocaldera, continuing in the following days (i.e. until 10 December) from the fissure vents opening on the Northeast Rift Zone.In this work, we investigate the Mauna Loa November − December 2022 eruption from space, integrating the information from different satellite sensors. The analysis of short-wave infrared (SWIR) data, at 10 min temporal resolution, from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites − R series (GOES-R), performed through the Normalised Hotspot Indices (NHI), indicates that the Mauna Loa eruption started on 27 November in between 23:10–23:20 LT (28 November at 09:10–09:20 UTC). The same analysis shows the increase of thermal activity and its progressive reduction from the early morning of 28 November, in agreement with the eruption migration from the summit caldera to the Northeast Rift Zone. By analysing the second phase of eruption through SWIR data from the Multispectral Instrument (MSI) and Operational Land Imager (OLI), respectively aboard Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 satellites, we estimated a maximum lava flow length of 17 km. Moreover, we retrieved values of the volcanic radiative power (VRP) up to 65 GW, and a time-averaged discharge rate (TADR) of ∼1000 (±500) m3/s. These results show that SWIR observations, at different spatial and temporal resolution, may give an important contribution to the monitoring, mapping and characterisation of intense lava effusions.

The magmatic evolution of South-East Crater (Mt. Etna) during the February–April 2021 sequence of lava fountains from a mineral chemistry perspective

The South-East Crater (SEC) at Mt. Etna started a period of lava fountaining in December 2020, producing over 60 paroxysms until February 2022. The activity had an intense sequence from February 16 to April 1, 2021, totaling 17 paroxysmal events separated by repose times varying from 1 to 7 days. The eruptive sequence was extensively monitored, providing a unique opportunity to relate the chemistry and texture of the erupted products to eruption dynamics. We investigate the temporal evolution of the magmatic system through this eruptive sequence by quantifying variations in the composition and texture of clinopyroxene. Clinopyroxene major element transects across crystals from five representative lava fountains allow us to determine the relative proportions of deep versus shallow-stored magmas that fed these events. We use hierarchical clustering (HC), an unsupervised machine learning technique, to objectively identify clinopyroxene compositional clusters and their variations during this intense eruptive phase. Our results show that variations of monitoring parameters and eruption intensity are expressed in the mineral record both as changes in cluster proportions and the chemical complexity of single crystals. We also apply random forest thermobarometry to relate each cluster to P-T conditions of formation. We suggest that the February–April 2021 eruptive sequence was sustained by the injection of a hotter and deeper magma into a storage area at 1–3 kbar, where it mixed with a slightly more evolved magma. The February 28 episode emitted the most mafic magma, in association with the highest mean lava fountain height and highest time–averaged discharge rate, which make it the peak of the analyzed eruptive interval. Our results show that after this episode, the deep magma supply decreased and the erupted magma become gradually more chemically evolved, with a lower time–average discharge rate and fountain height. We propose this approach as a means to rapidly, objectively, and effectively link petrological and geophysical/geochemical monitoring during ongoing eruptions. We anticipate that the systematic application of this approach will serve to shed light on the magmatic processes controlling the evolution of ongoing eruptions.

Development, structure, and behavior of a perched lava channel at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, during 2007

Channelized lava flows are commonly produced during the early stages of basaltic eruptions. These channels usually maintain their morphology until the eruption ends or discharge is diverted. In some instances, narrower channels can roof over, developing into lava tubes. We report here on a channelized flow erupted at Kīlauea volcano in 2007 that evolved into a “perched lava channel” composed of a string of interconnected, elongate lava pools, forming a lava channel/lava pool hybrid. The lava channel, which had a time-averaged discharge rate of ~3–9 m3/s, initially fed a series of flow branches that exhibited cooling-limited and volume-limited controls on flow length, sometimes with each process controlling a different morphological aspect of a single flow branch. The perched lava channel grew vertically primarily by overplating of the channel levees from frequent overflows, forming a compound flow field. This vertical growth only occurred when the distal end of the channel was blocked. When levee failure at the distal end of the channel caused the lava level in the channel to drop below the levee rim, no vertical growth occurred. Seeps of spiny lava and slabby pāhoehoe were common, erupting from uplift scarps on the channel levees, apparently fed by sills from denser, relatively crystal-rich material filling the bottom of the channel. We infer that lava in the channel was stratified in vesicularity and velocity, with foamy, vesicular, faster-moving lava at the top of the lava stream and denser, relatively outgassed, slower-moving lava filling the bottom of the channel. The channel levees were unstable, failing on several occasions, perhaps triggered by the levee seeps. The appearance of seeps, therefore, is one way of assessing the collapse potential of similar perched lava structures.

Detecting multiscale periodicity from the secular effusive activity at Santiaguito lava dome complex (Guatemala)

Santiaguito, Guatemala, represents one of the best cases of active lava dome complex in the world, producing lava flow effusion, weak explosive activity, and cycles of lava dome extrusion over varying timescales. Since the inception in 1922, it has shown a remarkable constant eruptive activity, characterized by effusion of blocky domes and lava flows punctuated by moderate explosions of gas-and-ash and pyroclastic flows. In this study, we reconstruct the time evolution of discharge rates of Santiaguito across one entire century, from 1922 to 2021, combining, for the more recent activity, new satellite thermal data. By using discrete Fourier transform (DFT) and Morlet wavelet analyses, we identify three fundamental periodicities in subsets of the 1922–2021 time-series: (i) long term (ca. 10 years), (ii) intermediate term (ca. 3.5 years), and (iii) short term (from ca. 1 year to ca. 3 months), which are comparable with those observed at other lava dome eruptions at calc-alkaline volcanoes. Such inferred periodicities provide a powerful tool for the interpretation of the non-linear eruptive behaviour and represent a pivotal benchmark for numerical modelling aimed to reconstruct the dynamics of the magma feeding system based on a time-averaged discharge rate dataset.Graphical

Effusion Rates on Mt. Etna and Their Influence on Lava Flow Hazard Assessment

The rate at which lava is discharged plays a key role in controlling the distance covered by lava flows from eruptive vents. We investigate the available time-averaged discharge rates (TADRs) estimated for recent flank eruptions at Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), in order to define a possible generalized effusion rate trend which is consistent with observed real data. Our analysis indicates a rapid waxing phase in which effusion rate peaks occur for between 0.5 and 29% of the total eruption time, followed by a progressive decrease in the waning phase. Three generalized curves are built by calculating the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles values associated with the occurrence of effusion peaks, and with the slope variations of descending curves in the waning phase. The obtained curves are used as an input for the GPUFLOW model in order to perform numerical simulations of the lava flows paths on inclined planes, and are compared with those generated by using effusion rate curves with a bell-shaped time-distribution. Our tests show how these characteristic curves could impact single-vent scenarios, as well as short- and long-term hazard maps, with maximum variations of up to 40% for a specific category of eruptive events.

Lava Volume from Remote Sensing Data: Comparisons with Reverse Petrological Approaches for Two Types of Effusive Eruption

Five effusive eruptions of Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) are analyzed to investigate temporal trends of erupted mass and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. Daily SO2 emissions are acquired from three ultraviolet (UV) satellite instruments (the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), and the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)) and an array of ground-based UV spectrometers (Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC)). Time-averaged lava discharge rates (TADRs) are obtained from two automatic satellite-based hot spot detection systems: MIROVA and MODVOLC. Assuming that the lava volumes measured in the field are accurate, the MIROVA system gave the best estimation of erupted volume among the methods investigated. We use a reverse petrological method to constrain pre-eruptive magmatic sulfur contents based on observed SO2 emissions and lava volumes. We also show that a direct petrological approach using SO2 data might be a viable alternative for TADR estimation during cloudy weather that compromises hot spot detection. In several eruptions we observed a terminal increase in TADR and SO2 emissions after initial emission of evolved degassed magma. We ascribe this to input of deeper, volatile-rich magma into the plumbing system towards the end of these eruptions. Furthermore, we find no evidence of volatile excess in the five eruptions studied, which were thus mostly fed by shallow degassed magma.

Linking lava morphologies to effusion rates for the 2014–2015 Holuhraun lava flow field, Iceland

AbstractDetermining the parameters that control fissure-fed lava morphologies is critical for reconstructing the complex emplacement histories of eruptions on Earth and other planetary bodies. We used a geomorphological map of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun lava flow field, in combination with new constraints on lava emplacement chronology and two independently derived time-averaged discharge rate (TADR) data sets, to analyze correlations between lava morphology and effusion rate. Results show that lava morphologies are dominantly controlled by effusion rate at the vent during the early phases of the eruption and by lava transport processes as the system evolves. Initially, TADR and its variance, which reflect pulsation in the lava supply rate from the vent, directly affect lava emplacement styles. However, as the eruption progresses, the lava transport system exerts a stronger control with channels and ponds that can either dampen variation in local effusion rate or create surges during sudden drainage events. The Holuhraun eruption predominantly produced rubbly lava in its earlier eruption phases and transitioned into the production of spiny lava toward the end of the eruption. However, a drop of TADR during the first phase of the eruption correlates with a decrease in rubbly lava formation and an increase in spiny lava production. This suggests that a change in effusion rate caused the observed transition in lava type. Our findings show that rubbly lava is formed under relatively high local effusion rates with pulsating supply conditions, whereas spiny lava is formed under lower local effusion rates and steadier supply.

Lava effusion rate evolution and erupted volume during the 2018 Kīlauea lower East Rift Zone eruption

The 2018 eruption on the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano produced one of the largest and most destructive lava flows in Hawai’i during the past 200 years. Over the course of more than 3 months, twenty-four fissures erupted, and the rate of lava effusion varied by two orders of magnitude, with significant implications for evolving flow behavior and hazards. Syn-eruptive data were collected to quantify these changes in lava effusion rate, including video of flow through channels and digital elevation models acquired using small unoccupied aircraft systems, airborne lidar, and airborne single-pass interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Topographic data through time allowed calculation of subaerial lava flow volume and time-averaged discharge rate over the course of the eruption, which we integrated with pre- and post-eruption bathymetric surveys. Repeat videos of the near-vent channel were analyzed with particle velocimetry to extract flow velocities, and these were combined with open channel flow theory to calculate a time series of instantaneous effusion rates. Results show a general increase in dense rock equivalent (DRE) effusion rate from ~7 to ~100 m3/s from early to late May for the whole flow field and ≥ 200 m3/s by mid-June after the eruption had focused at a primary vent. By the end of the eruption in August, 0.9–1.4 km3 DRE of lava had erupted, with 0.4 km3 deposited on land and at least 0.5 km3 offshore. The trends in effusion rate through time reflect magmatic processes in the connected summit and rift zone system that controlled eruption rate, with resulting implications for lava flow dynamics and hazards.

Estimates of lava discharge rate of 2018 Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi eruption using multi-sensor satellite and laboratory measurements

ABSTRACT The 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption (LERZ) at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, was the largest event of the last 200 years at the LERZ. Here, we present a lava discharge rate estimation of this eruption by combining a joint analysis of multi-sensor infrared (IR) satellite remote sensing imagery of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) with laboratory measurements of lava properties. The time-averaged discharge rate (TADR) based estimation of the erupted lava volume resulted in circa 9.24 × 108 ± 4.62 × 108 m3 for the subaerial part of the 2018 LERZ eruption. The lava effusion at the LERZ began on 3 May 2018, with relatively low mean output rates of 2.82 ± 1.41 m3 s−1, which then almost doubled after 12 May to 4.94 ± 2.47 m3 s−1, increased after 19 May to 64.97 ± 32.48 m3 s−1 and from 28 May onwards until beginning of August 2018 up to 137.67 ± 68.83 m3 s−1.

How the variety of satellite remote sensing data over volcanoes can assist hazard monitoring efforts: The 2011 eruption of Nabro volcano

Satellite remote sensing is becoming an increasingly essential component of volcano monitoring, especially at little-known and remote volcanoes where in-situ measurements are unavailable and/or impractical. Moreover the synoptic view captured by satellite imagery over volcanoes can benefit hazard monitoring efforts. By monitoring, we mean both following the changing styles and intensities of the eruption once it has started, as well as nowcasting and eventually forecasting the areas potentially threatened by hazardous phenomena in an eruptive scenario. Here we demonstrate how the diversity of remote sensing data over volcanoes and the mutual interconnection between satellite observations and numerical simulations can improve lava flow hazard monitoring in response to effusive eruption. Time-averaged discharge rates (TADRs) obtained from low spatial/high temporal resolution satellite data (e.g. MODIS, SEVIRI) are complemented, compared and fine-tuned with detailed maps of volcanic deposits with the aim of constraining the conversion from satellite-derived radiant heat flux to TADR. Maps of volcanic deposits include the time-varying evolution of lava flow emplacement derived from multispectral satellite data (e.g. EO-ALI, Landsat, Sentinel-2, ASTER), as well as the flow thickness variations, retrieved from the topographic monitoring by using stereo or tri-stereo optical data (e.g. Pléiades, PlanetScope, ASTER). Finally, satellite-derived parameters are used as input and validation tags for the numerical modelling of lava flow scenarios. Our strategy is applied to the first historic eruption of Nabro volcano (Eritrea), occurred in June 2011. This eruptive event was characterized by the extraordinary quantity of SO2 emitted into the atmosphere and the extent of the long lava flows, which had a significant impact on the inhabitants of the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region despite the low population density. Because of its remote position, little was known about this eruption regarding the quantity of volcanic deposits and the timing and mechanisms of their emplacement. We found that the total volume of deposits, calculated from differences of digital elevation models (DEMs), is about 580 × 106 m3, of which about 336 × 106 m3 is the volume of the main lava flow that advanced eastward beyond the caldera. Multi-spectral satellite observations indicate that the main lava flow had reached its maximum extent (~16 km) within about 4 days of the eruption onset on midnight 12 June. Lava flow simulations driven by satellite-derived parameters allow building an understanding of the advance rate and maximum extent of the main lava flow showing that it is likely to have reached 10.5 km in one day with a maximum speed of ~0.44 km/h.

‘A’ā lava emplacement and the significance of rafted pyroclastic material: Marcath volcano (Nevada, USA)

Lava emplacement at monogenetic volcanoes has been seldom documented when compared to persistently active volcanoes such as Mt. Etna or Kilauea. To expand the scientific understanding of lava emplacement, and to help assess the hazards posed by monogenetic systems and of lava flows in general, we present an investigation of the lava field at Marcath volcano (~ 35 ka; Lunar Crater volcanic field, central Nevada, USA). Key data include lava surface characteristics as well as size and abundance data of rafted pyroclastic material derived from the source cone. Upon exiting the source crater, lava initially ponded in an upland saddle between Marcath and an older cone before breaking out to feed three lava lobes that spread out onto a flat valley floor below. Quantitative estimates based upon morphological parameters suggest time-averaged discharge rates of 40–100 m3 s−1, emplacement duration of 5–20 days, and bulk lava viscosities on the order of 106 to 107 Pa s in the main lobes. Sizes and distributions of 1021 mapped pyroclastic rafts suggest that the early stages of the eruption produced much of the total raft volume. The source of most of the raft material was likely the now-missing western portion of an early Marcath cone. After the initial breaching of the cone, the raft production rate likely kept pace with cone building over the eruption’s duration such that once the cone was breached on one side, it did not heal. Rafts were not always passive passengers on the lava: they had an important impact on lava morphology in specific locations, as they caused bifurcation of entire flow lobes and produced other flow features. The common occurrence of rafts in monogenetic lava fields suggests that incorporation of raft-lava interactions may be important in lava propagation models.

Monitoring the time-averaged discharge rates, volumes and emplacement style of large lava flows by using MIROVA system: the case of the 2014-2015 eruption at Holuhraun (Iceland)

The 2014-2015 eruption at Holuhraun has produced more than 1.5 km 3 of basaltic magma and can be considered one of the major effusive events of the last two centuries in the world. During this eruption the MIROVA system (a volcanic hot-spot detection system based on MODIS middle infrared – MIR - data) has been used to detect and locate the active portions of the lava flow(s), and to measure the heat radiated by the growing lava field. According to these data the eruption was characterized by a slow decay of the radiant power, accompanied by a change in the lava transport mechanism that shifted from open channels, at the beginning of the eruption, to lava tubes, during the last months of activity. Despite the evident evolution of lava transport mechanism, we found that the overall decreasing trend of the thermal flux was mainly controlled by the exponential decline of lava discharge rates, while the increasing insulation of the flow field had a strong impact in transporting efficiently the lava at the distal flow front(s). Our results suggest the apparent time averaged lava discharge rates ( TADR ), derived from satellite thermal data, may fluctuate around the real effusion rate at the vent, especially in the case of large lava flows emplacing in nearly flat conditions. The magnitude and frequency of these fluctuations are mainly controlled by the emplacement dynamic, (i.e. occurrence of distinct major flow units), while the transition from channel- to tube-fed lava transport mechanism play only a minor role (±30%) in the retrieval of TADR using MIR data . When the TADR values are integrated to calculate erupted lava volumes, the effects of pulsating emplacement dynamic become smoothed and the eruptive trend become more clear. We suggest that during the Holuhraun ’s eruption, as well as during many other effusive eruptions, the MIR-derived radiant flux essentially mimic the overall trend of lava discharge rates, with only a minor influence due to the emplacement style and evolving eruptive conditions. From a monitoring and operational perspective, MIROVA demonstrates to be a very valuable tool to follow and, possibly, forecast the evolution of on-going effusive eruption.

Satellite-driven modeling approach for monitoring lava flow hazards during the 2017 Etna eruption

The integration of satellite data and numerical modeling represents an efficient strategy to find immediate answers to the main issues raised at the onset of a new effusive eruption. Satellite thermal remote sensing can provide a variety of products suited to timing, locating, and tracking the radiant character of lava flows, including the opening times of eruptive vents. The time-series analysis of thermal satellite data can also provide estimates of the time-averaged discharge rate and volume. High-spatial resolution multispectral satellite data complement field observations for monitoring the lava emplacement in terms of flow length and area. All these satellite-derived parameters can be passed as input to physics-based numerical models in order to produce more accurate and reliable forecasts of effusive scenarios during ongoing eruptions. Here, we demonstrate the potential of the integrated application of satellite remote sensing techniques and lava flow models during the 2017 eruptive activity of Mt Etna. Remote sensing data from SEVIRI are analyzed by the HOTSAT system to output hotspot location, lava thermal flux, and effusion rate estimation. This output is used to drive, as well as to continuously update, lava flow simulations performed by the physics-based MAGFLOW model. We also show how Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite data complement the field observations to track the flow front position in time and add valuable data on lava flow advancement with which to iteratively validate the numerical simulations.

Satellite and Ground Remote Sensing Techniques to Trace the Hidden Growth of a Lava Flow Field: The 2014–2015 Effusive Eruption at Fogo Volcano (Cape Verde)

Fogo volcano erupted in 2014–2015 producing an extensive lava flow field in the summit caldera that destroyed two villages, Portela and Bangaeira. The eruption started with powerful explosive activity, lava fountains, and a substantial ash column accompanying the opening of an eruptive fissure. Lava flows spreading from the base of the eruptive fissure produced three arterial lava flows. By a week after the start of the eruption, a master lava tube had already developed within the eruptive fissure and along the arterial flow. In this paper, we analyze the emplacement processes based on observations carried out directly on the lava flow field, remote sensing measurements carried out with a thermal camera, SO2 fluxes, and satellite images, to unravel the key factors leading to the development of lava tubes. These were responsible for the rapid expansion of lava for the ~7.9 km length of the flow field, as well as the destruction of the Portela and Bangaeira villages. The key factors leading to the development of tubes were the low topography and the steady magma supply rate along the arterial lava flow. Comparing time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) obtained from satellite and Supply Rate (SR) derived from SO2 flux data, we estimate the amount and timing of the lava flow field endogenous growth, with the aim of developing a tool that could be used for hazard assessment and risk mitigation at this and other volcanoes.

The Volume of Lava Erupted During the 2014 to 2015 Eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland: A Comparison Between Satellite‐ and Ground‐Based Measurements

AbstractThe 31 August 2014 to 27 February 2015 eruption at Holuhraun created the largest lava flow field in Iceland since the 1783–1784 Laki eruption. Emplacement of a basaltic flow field of this magnitude onto an effectively flat surface (<0.1°) is a rare occurrence. Lava discharge rate, a fundamental variable that controls flow field emplacement, allows us to estimate the total volume of lava erupted when integrated over time. Thus, discharge rate data are important for volcano monitoring and lava flow modeling. Here we compare discharge rates estimated using data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the method of Harris et al. (1997a, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JB03388; 1997b, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450050174; 2007, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445‐007‐0120‐y), with estimates of discharge rates derived from comparing intermittent ground‐based measurements of flow field volume. The time‐averaged discharge rates (TADR) reveal a pulsed increase in the first few days of the eruption. Although the trends of the satellite‐ and ground‐based discharge rates are similar, the ground‐based estimates are systematically higher than the satellite‐derived estimates (about 2 to 3 times higher) in the first 30 days of the eruption, and relatively close (within 30%) for the next 20 days. Conversely, during the final 130 days, the satellite‐based estimates are systematically higher than the ground‐based estimates (about 2 times higher). This difference likely arises from the assumption of the lava flow surface temperature used in the space‐based calculation, which may not be entirely representative of this uniquely large and intense basaltic eruption. However, the satellite‐based technique yields a total erupted volume of about 1.21 km3 in good agreement with the 1.2 km3 (84 km2) derived from field observations and mapping.

Proximal Monitoring of the 2011–2015 Etna Lava Fountains Using MSG-SEVIRI Data

From 2011 to 2015, 49 lava fountains occurred at Etna volcano. In this work, the measurements carried out from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument, on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite, are processed to realize a proximal monitoring of the eruptive activity for each event. The SEVIRI measurements are managed to provide the time series of start and duration of eruption and fountains, Time Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) and Volcanic Plume Top Height (VPTH). Due to its temperature responsivity, the eruptions start and duration, fountains start and duration and TADR are realized by exploiting the SEVIRI 3.9 μm channel, while the VPTH is carried out by applying a simplified procedure based on the SEVIRI 10.8 μm brightness temperature computation. For each event, the start, duration and TADR have been compared with ground-based observations. The VPTH time series is compared with the results obtained from a procedures-based on the volcanic cloud center of mass tracking in combination with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back-trajectories. The results indicate that SEVIRI is generally able to detect the start of the lava emission few hours before the ground measurements. A good agreement is found for both the start and the duration of the fountains and the VPTH with mean differences of about 1 h, 50 min and 1 km respectively.

The emplacement of the active lava flow at Sinabung Volcano, Sumatra, Indonesia, documented by structure-from-motion photogrammetry

An effusive eruption at Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia began in December 2013. We use structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetric techniques to create digital elevation models (DEMs) of the active lava flow. We build DEMs from photographs taken during two separate time periods and from two separate low-cost handheld cameras and compare them with a pre-eruption DEM to assess the quality and accuracy of photogrammetric DEMs created using different cameras, calculate flow volume and long-term average effusion rate, and document changes in flow morphology. On September 22nd, 2014, the lava flow was 2.9km long and had a volume of 1.03±0.14×108m3, leading to an estimated time-averaged discharge rate of 4.8±0.6m3s−1. Differencing the photogrammetric DEMs shows that during the two-week field campaign, topographic changes of the flow occurred in zones along the flow front and on the upper flank, a finding supported by relatively high temperatures in corresponding thermal images. The deformation can be explained by active advance at the flow front and development of instabilities and collapse on the upper flanks. Large pyroclastic density currents associated with gravitational collapse of upper-flank instabilities in October 2014 and June 2015 were caused by lava growing over ridges that had initially confined the flow to a pre-existing channel. This work demonstrates the ability of SfM photogrammetry to measure or identify the lava flow volume, time-averaged discharge rate, flow emplacement rate and style, as well as the development of gravitational instabilities. Our results show the potential of SfM photogrammetry as a cost- and time-effective method of repeatedly measuring active volcanic features and monitoring hazards at Sinabung and during similar eruptions.

Predicting the end of lava flow-forming eruptions from space

Although the volcanological community places great emphasis on forecasting the onset of volcanic eruptions, knowing when an effusive eruption will end is just as important in terms of mitigating hazards. Wadge (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 11:139–168, 1981) postulated that the onset of an episodic, lava flow-forming basaltic eruption is characterized by a rapid increase in effusion rate to a maximum, before decaying over a longer period of time until the eruption ends. We used thermal infrared remote-sensing data acquired by NASA’s MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to derive time-averaged discharge rate (TADR) time series using the method of Harris et al. (J Geophys Res 102(B4):7985–8003, 1997) for 104 eruptions at 34 volcanoes over the last 15 years. We found that 32 eruptions followed the pattern described by Wadge (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 11:139–168, 1981). Based on the MODIS-derived maximum lava discharge rate and a decay constant that best fits the exponential waning phase (updated as each new MODIS TADR observation is added to the time series), the time at which the discharge equals zero, and thus the point at which effusion ends, can be predicted. The accuracy of the prediction improves with the number of data points so that, in the ideal case, the end of effusion can be retro-casted before half of the eruption duration has passed. This work demonstrates the possibility of predicting when an eruption will end using satellite-derived TADR time series acquired in near real time during that eruption. This prediction can be made after an eruption has reached its maximum lava discharge rate and the waning phase of the Wadge trend has begun. This approach therefore only applies to the case of eruption from a chamber undergoing an elastic release of energy during lava flow emplacement, and we provide examples of eruptions where it would not be applicable.