Tigray People's Liberation Front Research Articles

The political economy of fiscal transfers: The case of Ethiopia

AbstractThis article examines the political economy of fiscal transfers in Ethiopia. Utilising an original data set spanning 1995–2020, as well as interviews and document analyses, the article illustrates how different factors interact to shape the distribution of grants. Statistical analysis indicates that population size is critical in determining regional grant shares. However, the analyses reveal a pattern of ethno‐regional favouritism in grant distributions during the early stages of Ethiopian federalism. During that period, opaque and centralised decision‐making processes, coupled with the dominant influence of the Tigray People's Liberation Front in the federal government, resulted in grant distribution deviating from principles of fiscal equity. Over time, this evolved into more fluid forms of negotiation influenced by intra‐party competition, dynamics of bargaining between the central and regional authorities, and regional assertiveness, collectively shaping the allocation of grants alongside the grant formula. The analysis highlights how economically and politically marginalised regions are disadvantaged, especially when their population is small. The absence of an independent grant agency means that political considerations continue to affect seemingly formula‐driven allocations. The Ethiopian case underscores how intra‐party bargaining and alignment along ethnic and regional lines undermine the effectiveness of formula‐based grant allocations in the absence of an independent and empowered grant agency.

Symptoms of posttraumatic stress, anxiety, and depression, along with their associated factors, among Eritrean refugees in Dabat town, northwest Ethiopia, 2023

BackgroundRefugee populations are forcibly displaced from their homes as a consequence of natural disasters and armed conflicts. Eritreans, initially displaced to the Maiayni camp within the Tigray region, have faced further relocation to Dabat town due to the conflict between the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian government forces. Subsequently, another conflict has arisen between the Amhara Popular Force (Fano) and Ethiopian government forces in Dabat town, disrupting its stability. These collective challenges in the new environment may contribute to the development of symptoms such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression. Currently, there is a lack of available data on these symptoms and their associated variables in Dabat Town. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of PTSD, anxiety, and depression symptoms, along with associated factors, among Eritrean refugees in Dabat town, northwest Ethiopia. This will provide significant evidence for developing and implementing mental health intervention strategies that specifically address the particular difficulties faced by refugees.MethodA community-based cross-sectional study was carried out from July 25 to September 30, 2023, in the Eritrean refugee camp in Dabat town. A systematic random sampling method was employed to select a total of 399 Eritrean refugees with 100 response rate. Data were collected using the standard validated Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS-21) questionnaire, which included socio-demographic characteristics. Summary statistics such as frequency and proportion were utilized to present the data in tables and figures. Binary logistic regression was employed to identify associated factors, and variables with a p-value (p ≤ 0.05) were considered statistically significant factors.ResultThe findings of this study indicated that 45% (95% CI: 35.6-48.23), 33.6% (95% CI: 31.66–37.45), and 37.3% (95% CI: 35.56–40.34) of the participants had symptoms of depression, anxiety, and PTSD, respectively. Sex, age, employment status, lack of food or water, experience of torture or beating, and imprisonment emerged as statistically significant predictors of depression. Employment status, murder of family or friends, rape or sexual abuse, torture or beating, and lack of housing or shelter were statistically significantly associated with anxiety. PTSD was found to be significantly associated with sex, length of stay at the refugee camp, lack of housing, shelter, food, or water, experience of rape or sexual abuse, abduction, employment status, and murder of family or friends.Conclusions and recommendationThe results of this study revealed that more than one-third of Eritreans living in the refugee camp in Dabat town had symptoms of PTSD, anxiety, and depression. This prevalence is higher than the previously reported studies. Various factors, including age, gender, monthly income, unemployment, experiences of rape or sexual abuse, witnessing the murder of family or friends, being torched or beaten, imprisonment, and deprivation of basic needs such as food, shelter, and water, were identified as contributors to the development of depression, anxiety, and PTSD. This research underscores the need for both governmental and non-governmental organizations to secure the provision of essential necessities such as food, clean water, shelter, clothing, and education. This study also suggested that Eritrean refugees be legally protected from rape, sexual abuse, arson, detention without cause, and kidnapping. Moreover, the study calls for health service providers to develop a mental health intervention plan and implement strategies to deliver mental health services at healthcare facilities for Eritrean refugees in the Dabat town Eritrean refugee camp.

Ethiopia: Difficult Way to Peace

Article for the first time analyzes in detail the complex situation in Ethiopia from 2020 when the political elite of the Tigray under the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) started the war against the Ethiopian federal government. The author characterizes the causes of the conflict and the balance of power. In 1991 the new political system – the ethnic federalism – was introduced in Ethiopia. As the consequence, for 27 years the power in the country was monopolized by the Tigray. The protests’ movements which began in 2015 resulted in the change of the political regime. In the 2018 a new premier-minister Abiyu Ahmed came to power. This meant the end of the Tigray rule. But the Tigray elite and the TPLF didn’t accepted defeat. On the 2nd of November 2020 it started the war against the federal government. The war lasted for two years. Hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers were killed, economy, medical and educational facilities in the states Tigray, Amhara and Afar were destroyed. And, what is most important, the interethnic relations enormously deteriorated. On the 2nd of November 2022 in Pretoria an Agreement was signed between the TPLF and the federal government. In the March 2023 in Tigray Interim Government was introduced. But it will take a lot of time and efforts to heal all wounds.

Civil War between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front: A Challenge to Implement the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine

Civil War between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front: A Challenge to Implement the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine

War on paper: A critical discourse analysis of war reporting in Ethiopia

This study aims to examine the construction of the war between Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the central government, as well as its actors, in the local newspaper Bekur. Both a theoretical framework and a research methodology have been developed around critical discourse analysis (CDA). Methods for data analysis include Hodge's war discourse components and Van Dijk's ideological square. The findings indicate that Bekur constructed the war between TPLF forces and the central government as a war of existence. The stories portrayed the war in Ethiopia as a conflict between “country savers” and “dismantlers.” Furthermore, the TPLF forces—the out-group—are portrayed as country destabilizers, while the central government is portrayed as the country's saviour. The newspaper also represented the PM as central to winning the battle. Lastly, the positive representation of us, the in-group, and the negative representation of them, the out-group, in the newspaper seem to blatantly support the continuation of unequal power relations among those involved in the war in Ethiopia.

Organized violence 1989–2022, and the return of conflict between states

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2022, fatalities from organized violence increased by a staggering 97%, compared to the previous year, from 120,000 in 2021 to 237,000 in 2022, making 2022 the deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The increase was driven by two, particularly deadly, state-based armed conflicts: the Russia–Ukraine war, and the war in Ethiopia against TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front). With more than 81,500 and 101,000 fatalities respectively, these are the two most deadly state-based conflict-years recorded in the post-1989 period. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years, and the first interstate armed conflict since World War II where a major power in the international system seeks both territorial gains for itself and the subjugation of another state through regime change. We have witnessed an emerging trend of increased conflict between states in the last decade, including cases where major powers support opposite sides in internationalized intrastate conflict. UCDP recorded 55 active state-based armed conflicts in 2022, an increase of one compared to the previous year. Eight of these conflicts reached the level of war. While the fatalities caused by non-state conflict decreased somewhat when compared to 2021, the number of non-state conflicts, as well as both the number of civilians killed in one-sided violence and the number of actors carrying out such violence, increased in 2022.

An Understanding of How GDP, Unemployment and Inflation Interact and Change across Time and Frequency

The main aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between the three pillars of the economy: unemployment, inflation, and GDP in Ethiopia using the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) analysis, the multivariate Student-t generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The dynamics between the three indicators were also investigated using the Toda–Yamamoto (TY) causality test. The empirical findings from the XWT method suggest a relationship between unemployment, inflation, and GDP, though the relationship varies over time and frequency. The estimation results from the multivariate Student-t GAS model show that the correlation between unemployment (overall, male, female, and youth) and inflation is highly significant, indicating that the correlation is dynamic. A dynamic relationship exists between GDP and unemployment, except for females and young people. The ARDL approach’s findings showed that unemployment significantly negatively impacted GDP. However, it was found that inflation significantly increased GDP. The general conclusion drawn from this study’s findings is that unemployment significantly affects GDP and inflation. Therefore, the government should aggressively implement policies to reduce unemployment, especially youth unemployment. Additionally, the administration must rehabilitate the country’s badly damaged economy and formalize a lasting cessation of hostilities between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

The impact of armed violence on educational institutions, students’ educational attainment and the role of actors in governance of the education process

The main purpose of this study was to explore the impact of the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) armed violence on educational institutions, students’ educational attainments, and the role of actors playing in school governance and redirecting the education process. This study was positioned to yield preliminary evidence which can serve as input for concerned bodies when designing intervention programs in the study area that aims to give a response to the spoiled education system brought by the violence. In doing so, a convergent mixed-method research design was used. The study sample was bounded to n = 398 participants. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected simultaneously, and the analysis was drawn upon both strands in search of patterns. As a result, the following findings were obtained. The TPLF armed violence instigated the destruction of school infrastructures and generated substantial impediments to the supply of schooling. As a result, students’ educational attainment and learning outcomes were significantly lowered as compared to before the violence. As well, students’ dropout rate, out-of-school students’ rate, and related educational wastage have been amplified. This, in turn, requires sound school governance and the active participation of all actors including parents and the local community at large be part of the solutions for those educational issues hampered by the TPLF violence. In the end, possible conclusions and suggestions were made.

The Pretoria Agreement: mere cessation of hostilities or heralding a new era in Ethiopia?

SUMMARY On 2 November 2022, welcome news came from Pretoria, South Africa. After 10 days of negotiations, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. This piece situates the importance of the war, and more importantly the agreement, within the longue durée of Ethiopian politics and highlights its importance as a turning point marking the end of the era of the dominance of the TPLF and the beginning of the end of ethno-nationalism's hegemonic centrality to national politics, including at the expense of the Ethiopian state.

THE EXODUS OF ETHIOPIAN REFUGEES IN SUDAN: A STUDY OF THE ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF HOST COUNTRIES

The Government of Sudan hastened to handle refugees when a mass influx of Tigrayan refugees swarmed the Ethiopian-Sudanese border in late 2020. Political rivalry between the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) and the coalition led by Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed's newly formed political coalition Prosperity Party/Paartii Badhaadhiina reached an all-time high when Federal Government decided to halt the financial aid planned for Tigray and formally reject regional election results held by Tigray earlier in September 2020; PM Abiy Ahmed condemned it as an illegal election carried out without Federal Government’s approval. In countermeasure, TPLF stormed the Ethiopian Defense Force regional base headquartered in Tigray capital, Mekelle, An action that provoked PM Abiy Ahmed's intentions to crush the TPLF once and for all. The military coalition consisted of Ethiopian Defense Force, Amhara Milita the Liyu Hayl, and Eritrean forces attacked Tigray from two consecutive fronts, forcing the civilians to flee their homes west into the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, begging for asylum from the Sudanese Government. This study aims to answer the roles and responsibilities carried out by the Sudanese Government in handling the Ethiopian refugees sheltered in the states of Kassala, Gedaref, and Blue Nile during the Tigray crisis. Using Kayongo-Male’s African Refugee Migration research model, the authors find the eagerness shown by the Sudanese Government to handle the Ethiopian refugees, the difficulties of rehabilitating the infrastructure, and the passive role of the African Union in mediating the conflict between the TPLF and Federal Ethiopian Government.

The impact of armed violence on students' educational attainment and the role of parents in resilience schooling and the education process

The main purpose of this study was to explore the impact of the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) armed violence on the attainment of students' education and the role of parents' involvement in the resiliency of schooling and the education process. In doing so, a convergent mixed-method research design was used. Accordingly, both qualitative and quantitative data were collected simultaneously, and the analysis was drawn upon both strands in search of patterns. Numbers of the study sample were n = 436 and the selection was bounded into three categories of subjects such as school principals (n = 22) for an interview, primary school teachers (n = 384) for a questionnaire and parents (n = 30) for focus group discussion selected through comprehensive, simple random and purposive sampling strategies respectively. Bothe thematic analysis and descriptive analysis (frequency and percentage) were used as data analysis strategies. As a result, the following findings were obtained: Destruction of school infrastructures generate substantial impediments to the supply of schooling. As a result, students' educational enrolment was lowered and students' dropout rate, out-of-school students' rate and related educational wastage increased. Therefore, it can be concluded that sound school administration and active participation of parents and the local community are urgently needed to continue the schooling and education process. Parents and the local community participated to reorganize school activities when the war affected areas were free from the war battle field. However, currently when this study is being investigated, they are looking back due to threats that the war will reawaken and devastate their efforts again.

Public Administration Developments in Ethiopia Under Three Different Regimes

The paper summarises and analyses the development of the public administration system in Ethiopia under three different regimes. The research mainly follows the traditional legal and administrative history approach methodology, focusing on the most significant historical, political, and legislative events (e.g. adoptions of constitutions) of the given eras, drawing attention to the main problems and reviewing them critically. Under Emperor Haile Selassie (1930–1974), Ethiopia was a centralised unitary state in the form of a feudal authoritarian monarchy. During the Derg regime (1974–1991), it remained a centralised unitary state, but with the concept of socialism, the military junta concentrated the power in their hands. The different government and administrative systems are characterized by weak and strong political, economic, and social achievements. Among these is a lack of good governance, human rights violations, weak institutional capacities, low citizen participation, and an (in)appropriate public administration system. These brought the nationality question to the forefront. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF, 1991–2019) established a decentralised federation, whereby parliamentary democracy guarantees a separation of powers with checks and balances and acknowledges the rights and self-determination of different ethnicities. In 2019 the EPRDF was dissolved and transformed into the Prosperity Party (PP). The reform forced the resignation of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party in the Tigray Region, and as a result, the EPRDF split into PP and TPLF. Meanwhile, public administration transformed from a monarchial administrative system into a weak public administration with poorly functioning state agencies; finally, the present system works under western influences. To mitigate these problems, institutional reforms, effective and efficient use of modern technologies, and inter-institutional cooperation play essential roles in improving the public administration system.

Ethiopia and the Running Sores of Ethnic Federalism: The Antithetical Forces of Statehood and Nationhood

Ethnic federalism in Ethiopia proved non-viable in practice because it came to be widely seen as a political tool used by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-dominated Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), whose ideological foundation was inspired by Soviet system of ‘democratic centralism’: a benign façade that veneered an authoritarian vanguard party operating under a token parliament. This article examines the dynamics of statehood and nationhood: antithetical forces of integration and differentiation, which play out around the commonly shared albeit highly contested polity of the nation-state. The need to dialectically resolve these antagonistic though mutualistic stakes lies at the epicentre of political debate in contemporary Ethiopia, ultimately pointing to the constitutional reform dilemmas it now faces. By drawing on literature on political theory, the article argues that the federal constitution proved antagonistic to the inherited politico-cultural orientations that posited the nation-state as the principal supranational identity. By redefining narrow forms of collective identity that were anchored precisely on ethnic sentiments that grew largely in reaction to perceived injustices, the federal constitution appeared neither to embrace, as a system of legitimation, the characteristic and authoritative dimensions of ‘Ethiopian’ identity as a supra-national universal habitus of loyalty and identification. Nor did it provide integrative cohesion to an otherwise essentially differentiated primordial ethnic and linguistic identity features that now came to be diffused and indeed accentuated at sub-national regions as rigid and hermetic sites of conflict and strife, rather than discursive, reflexive, and interactive domains of cultural and social life.

Kekerasan Seksual terhadap Perempuan dalam Konflik Bersenjata di Tigray Ethiopia dalam Kajian Hukum Internasional

Sexual violence against women is often used as a military strategy to subdue the enemy. Sexual violence against women can result in the impurity of certain ethnicities due to rape and pregnancy and the humiliation of opponents. This happened in the armed conflict in Tigray-Ethiopia in 2020. This article analyzes the international legal protection of women from sexual violence in armed conflict in Tigray. The discussion shows that the armed conflict between the Central Government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in 2020 can be categorized as a non-international armed conflict. The absence of preventive and repressive efforts by the two warring parties, especially the central government of Ethiopia, regarding the sexual violence against Tigray women, shows that there is no legal protection for women in armed conflicts. This violates Article 27 of the 4th Geneva Convention of 1949, Article 4 paragraph (2) letter e of Additional Protocol II of 1977, and violates the principles of non-reciprocity, military necessity, distinction, proportionality, and humanity. In addition, sexual violence against women during armed conflict is an international crime under the Rome Statute. Ethiopia is a party to the 1949 Geneva Conventions and the 1977 Additional Protocol and can therefore be held accountable.

Ethio-Sudan Relations፡ Critical Probe on the Post-2018 Dynamisms

There were no significant changes in the features, focus of national interest and foreign policy behaving in the relationship between Ethiopia and Sudan. Since the independence of Sudan in 1956, the relations of them were characterized by cooperation and conflict or friendship and hostility. Bewildering issues such as disputes over their common border, Nile water, and practices of implicit and explicit interventions are persistent. This article employed qualitative approach and narrative research design to provide analytical pictures regarding the dynamisms of Ethio-Sudan relations in Post-2018. The post-2018 relationship of Ethiopia and Sudan has three distinct phases and features. These are the period of friendship, hostility and normalization. Following Tigray People Liberation Front’s ouster in Addis Ababa; there was a warm and blooming relationship between the two countries. This was the first phase and in which Sudan’s political forces recognized Ethiopia to mediate their domestic political divergences. In the second and third phases (from 2020 onward), confrontational and normalization were the respective features their relationships. During the second phase, the internal vulnerabilities of Ethiopia encouraged Sudan to enhance its pressures on Ethiopia`s government. Sudan exacerbated row over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, border disputes, as well as engaged in proxy conflict through anti–government groups. Sudan also put international pressures over Ethiopia including the declaration of the withdrawal of Ethiopia`s forces from Abyei Mission. The all-around pressures of Sudan on Ethiopia, the proactive-defensive diplomatic manoeuvring of Ethiopia and the involvement of the third bodies are the major points of the dynamism. Finally, the Nairobi Summit of 2022 was a watershed in the relationships of the two countries. Since this summit the intensified tension declined, and the normalization (third phase) process has started.

Popular protests in the Amhara region and political reforms in Ethiopia, 2016–2018

ABSTRACT The Amhara Region protests originated in Gondar in 2016 and swiftly spread. The study addresses the questions of how mass mobilization occurred in Amhara, the dynamics, diffusion, and contribution of the protests to national political reforms. Using the political process model, the study identified several local and external factors that provided opportunities for mobilization. Researchers conducted in-depth interviews with activists, government officials, residents of North Gondar, and scholars. The study finds the bitter relationship between Amhara elites and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the presence of opposition political party structures in the region, divisions in the ruling coalition, the diaspora community, and protests in Oromia to be the major factors that promoted the Amhara protests. Furthermore, the research found out that social capital and social media sites played influential roles in spreading anti-government protests across the region. The study contends that Amharas contributed toward national political reforms through spreading the protests to a wide geographical area and throughout the social and political environment, which compromised the government’s ability to repress decisively.

Hegemony and Counter-Hegemony in Ethiopia: Imagining a Post-TPLF Order

This article examines the discursive strategies, the ideological dominations and interrelated material tools employed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in maintaining its rule. It also unravels the hegemonic crisis it has encountered, and the counter-hegemony it has confronted since 2015. Gramscian novelties of historical bloc, hegemony, organic crisis, counter-hegemony, and interregnum, are deployed in order to understand the continuities, ruptures and crises witnessed in Ethiopia’s politics for the past thirty years. The article interprets the crisis of the TPLF since the 2015 protests through the prism of organic crises and analyses the counter-hegemonic contestations, the interregnum and the ongoing war since 4 November 2020. The article adds to the recent resurgence of interest in Gramscian perspectives by demonstrating the relevance of Gramscian concepts to the understanding of politics in the states of the global south.

The 2020 Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) Regional Election in Ethiopia: Legitimacy and Motivations

The 2020 Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) Regional Election in Ethiopia: Legitimacy and Motivations

Inquiring the Political Strategy of Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) in Post-2018 Ethiopia

Abstract The upsurge of TPLF led regime to power installed ethnic politics and deconstruction of Ethiopian history with corporate corruption, ultra-vires and pseudo-federalism. The misappropriations of national assets added with autocratic nature of the regime procreated erratic political oppositions and protests since the party set on to power. The political marginalization at intra-party level also created split, which brought state elites in Amhara and Oromia regions to support the acute popular protest. These political scenarios have compelled TPLF to abscond into Mekelle and the coming of reformist leaders to power in 2018. This paper thus aimed to uncover TPLF’s political strategy in post 2018 Ethiopia by employing a qualitative case study with a secondary data obtained from Mass Media, commentaries and digitized outlets. The loss of key political positions and attachment of the regime’s wrong deeds to TPLF has bugging its elites after the coming of the new premiership. As counter to the reformist leaders, TPLF undertook huge militarization, destabilization and proxies, inducing popular fear, supporting like-minded regional oppositions to propagandize sensitive political issues to regain its lost prestige. This power rivalry created political absurdism, where political decisions and policies of the reformists had continued to be officially banned by TPLF in a way that disastrously impacted the survival of the state. Thus, it is important to undertake political reconciliation to freeze the prevailing political deadlocks for the continuation of the polity.

Human Rights Crisis in Tigray Region of Ethiopia: The Extent of International Intervention and PM Abiy Ahmed’s Denial of Humanitarian Access into the Region.

The human rights crisis in the Tigray region of has grown out of a disagreement between central and regional governments. Even though the immediate causes were related to the discrepancy between Abiy Ahmed's push toward election postponement and new party aka Prosperity Party formation. The root causes go beyond that. The country has been in violent political chaos since it was formed as an imperial state. The ideological difference has got deep. The Abiy’s move toward unifying the country was not appreciated by many including Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). It is “the war of vision” between pan-Ethiopians and multi-nation structured as some say. When Abiy established the prosperity party, it seems he wants to bring the old as some call it glorious Ethiopia which is aimed at by unionists. The major ethnicities, their languages, cultures, identities, economic and political representations have not been reflected in such Ethiopia. Diverse ethnicities have been forcefully marginalized, subjugated, and assimilated to accept the system that does not represent them. The problem starts there. It led to non-ending violence's in the country. The current violence and human rights crisis in Tigray and across the country are partially grown out of such problems. This paper mainly focused on violence in the Tigray region, the root causes, Abiy Ahmed's political move that causes and turned into civil war, violence, death of thousands, massacres, mass rape, IDPs, refugee crisis, and human rights violation across the country. The discussion starts with a basic historical overview of empire formation, ethnic-based struggles, challenges to federalism, and the way forward. I have forwarded the recommendations that may be considered.