Ethio-Sudan Relations፡ Critical Probe on the Post-2018 Dynamisms

Abstract

There were no significant changes in the features, focus of national interest and foreign policy behaving in the relationship between Ethiopia and Sudan. Since the independence of Sudan in 1956, the relations of them were characterized by cooperation and conflict or friendship and hostility. Bewildering issues such as disputes over their common border, Nile water, and practices of implicit and explicit interventions are persistent. This article employed qualitative approach and narrative research design to provide analytical pictures regarding the dynamisms of Ethio-Sudan relations in Post-2018. The post-2018 relationship of Ethiopia and Sudan has three distinct phases and features. These are the period of friendship, hostility and normalization. Following Tigray People Liberation Front’s ouster in Addis Ababa; there was a warm and blooming relationship between the two countries. This was the first phase and in which Sudan’s political forces recognized Ethiopia to mediate their domestic political divergences. In the second and third phases (from 2020 onward), confrontational and normalization were the respective features their relationships. During the second phase, the internal vulnerabilities of Ethiopia encouraged Sudan to enhance its pressures on Ethiopia`s government. Sudan exacerbated row over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, border disputes, as well as engaged in proxy conflict through anti–government groups. Sudan also put international pressures over Ethiopia including the declaration of the withdrawal of Ethiopia`s forces from Abyei Mission. The all-around pressures of Sudan on Ethiopia, the proactive-defensive diplomatic manoeuvring of Ethiopia and the involvement of the third bodies are the major points of the dynamism. Finally, the Nairobi Summit of 2022 was a watershed in the relationships of the two countries. Since this summit the intensified tension declined, and the normalization (third phase) process has started.