Tide-surge Interaction Research Articles

Effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea

Abstract A two-dimensional coupled tide-surge model was used to investigate the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. In order to estimate the impacts of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations, Typhoon 7203 was assumed to arrive at 12 different times, with all other conditions remaining constant. This allowed simulation of tide and total water levels for 12 separate cases. Numerical simulation results for Yingkou, Huludao, Shijiusuo, and Lianyungang tidal stations were analyzed. Model results showed wide variations in storm surge elevations across the 12 cases. The largest difference between 12 extreme storm surge elevation values was of up to 58 cm and occurred at Yingkou tidal station. The results indicate that the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations are very significant. It is therefore essential that these are taken into account when predicting storm surge elevations.

Modeling the interaction between tides and storm surges for the Taiwan coast

An unstructured grid, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was established and applied to the coast of Taiwan to investigate the tide-surge interaction. Tidal elevations at the open boundaries coupled with a global ocean tidal model and the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model are used to drive the model. The model was calibrated and verified with the observed tidal levels at six tidal stations for seven typhoon events to ascertain the capability and feasibility of the model. The results show reasonable agreement between the simulated and observed tidal levels. The validated model was then applied to probe the influence of tide-surge interaction on phase, water levels, and storm surge height. We found that the tide-surge interaction influenced both the magnitude and timing of the surge, which depended on the typhoon path. The storm surge heights at different tidal stations were significantly influenced by wind stresses and directions. The water level rise due to the storm surge during high tide was greater at neap tide than at spring tide. Changing tidal ranges altered the prediction of the surge enough to induce the changes in peak water levels.

Determination of extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast

Extreme sea levels along the Atlantic Iberian coast are determined through the development and application of a numerical model for tides and surges, followed by a statistical analysis of the model results. A recent statistical method is assessed using 131 years of data from the Brest tide gauge, and the number of years of data required for an accurate statistical analysis is estimated. The statistical method is extended to consider tide–surge interactions, but they are shown to be small in the study region. The model covers a large portion of the NE Atlantic, with a 250m resolution in the Portuguese shelf. In the Iberian shelf, root mean square errors of tides are of the order of 5cm, and extreme sea levels are underestimated by about 10cm. Differences between sea level statistics obtained from model output and observations are of the order of 5cm in the study region. Simulation of tides and surges between 1980 and 2010, followed by a statistical analysis of the results, provide the extreme levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast for different return periods. Results reveal the increase of extreme sea levels from south to north and the importance of local effects.

Analyzing the physics of non-tidal barotropic sea level anomaly events using multi-scale numerical modelling in Singapore regional waters

The hydrodynamic flows in the Singapore regional waters (SRW) are the result of a complex mix of tide, seasonal and meteorological effects. The study of non-tidal effects or sea level anomalies (SLA) in this region has shown that it is possible to model some of these anomalies. The present study addresses the non-tidal barotropic water levels and currents in the Singapore region in detail. This analysis includes a multi-scale approach, and addresses amongst others hydrodynamic model grid resolution and the importance of resolving non-linear tide–surge interaction. The results show that the water level and current anomalies phenomena in a complex region like SRW can be effectively modelled using an approach combining non-tidal barotropic and multi-scale numerical modelling. A detailed investigation of the levels of non-linear tide–surge interaction is carried out by simulating SLA events in the Singapore regional waters during North-East (positive SLA) and South-West (negative SLA) monsoons based on ECMWF numerical weather forcing conditions. The results of combining both approaches suggest that the finer grid resolution improves the accuracy of water level and current anomalies simulations. Furthermore, the results also indicate that for the simulations of non-tidal barotropic flows in this area, non-linear tide–surge interaction is important and should be taken into account. Finally, the behaviour of the non-tidal barotropic flow in the region and its changes with tidal variation in the shallow region of the Singapore Strait is now much better understood. Therefore, for reliable operational forecast of sea level, the inclusion of non-linear tide–surge interaction should be required in numerical models to reproduce both tides and surges with improved accuracy in this region.

Extreme storm surge hazard estimation in lower Manhattan

The coastal destruction wreaked by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 prompted motivation to estimate the event’s return period. The Clustered Separated Peaks-over-threshold Simulation (CSPS) method for estimating return periods uses a Monte Carlo simulation of storm surge activity based on statistics derived from tidal gauge data at the Battery, New York in lower Manhattan. The data are separated into three independent components (storm surge, tidal cycle and sea level rise) because different physical processes govern different components of water level. Peak storm surge heights are fit to the generalized Pareto distribution, chosen for its ability to fit a wide tail to limited data. The algorithm incorporates the evolution of storm surge over surge duration. The CSPS suggests that the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s peak water level is 103 years (95% confidence interval 38–452 years), significantly lower than previously published return periods. The estimated 100-year water level is 5.23 m above the station datum (or 3.39 m above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, or 3.45 m above mean sea level). With 1 m of sea level rise (holding all other climatological conditions constant), this water level would become the 28-year event. Although the method’s exclusion of surge-tide interaction and its reliance on a 90-year tidal gauge time history may limit the reliability of high return period estimates, application of the CSPS method to lower Manhattan suggests that storm surge hazard in the New York Harbor has, until now, been underestimated.

조석-해일 비선형성과 관련된 태풍-해일 특성

Tide-surge interaction during typhoon periods has been analyzed. The quantitative analysis of the Chisquare test shows that the interaction is most prominent at the Southwestern coast whereas the Western and the Southeastern regions are not. Patterns of surge type were divided into two groups, that is, steep type and mild type. Then, the interaction was turned out to be more prominent for mild type data. The weak interaction at the Western region is considered due to negative surges when the south-track typhoons attack. However, the interaction is remarkable when the west-track typhoons attack. The weak interaction at the Southeastern coast is, on the other hand, considered due to abundance of the steep type typhoons. Thus, inundation risk would be so apprehensive at that region because large-scale surge might be caused even at high tide. 핵심용어: tide-surge interaction, typhoon, surge type, tide-modulated surge, typhoon track, 조석-해일 ë¹„ì„ í˜•ì„±, 태풍, 해일양상, 조석변조해일, 태풍경로

서·남해안 조석-해일 비선형성 발생양상

Hourly tide-gauge data at 10 tide stations along the West/South coasts were analysed statistically for tidesurge interaction. Interactions were found at all stations except Busan, prominently at the western tip of the South coast near Mokpo and Wando. A well-known interaction pattern which occurs at flood tide was found rarely at domestic coasts, while another pattern of the tide-modulated surge which occurs at low tide was detected frequently. In addition, a new interaction pattern which occurs at ebb tide is discovered. This pattern is found at Mokpo where the ebb dominance is prominent. Finally, the skew surge could be considered as a tool coping with such interactions. 핵심용어: tide-surge interaction, phase error, tide-modulated surge, ebb dominance, skew surge, 조석-해일 ë¹„ì„ í˜•ì„±, 위상오차, 조석변조해일, 낙조우세, 편기해일ê³

Atmospheric storm surge modeling methodology along the French (Atlantic and English Channel) coast

Storm surge modeling and forecast are the key issues for coastal risk early warning systems. As a general objective, this study aims at improving high-frequency storm surge variations modeling within the PREVIMER system (www.previmer.org), along the French Atlantic and English Channel coasts. The paper focuses on (1) sea surface drag parameterization and (2) uncertainties induced by the meteorological data quality. The modeling is based on the shallow-water version of the model for applications at regional scale (MARS), with a 2-km spatial resolution. The model computes together tide and surge, allowing properly taking into account tide-surge interactions. To select the most appropriate parameterization for the study area, a sensitivity analysis on sea surface drag parameterizations is done, based on comparisons of modeled storm surges (extracted with a tidal component analysis) with four tidal gauges, during four storm events, and over about 7.5 years, where the observed water level is processed in the same way as the modeling results. The tested drag parameterizations are a constant one, as reported by Moon et al. (J Atmos Sci 61: 2321–2333, 2007), Makin (Bound-Layer Meteorol 115: 169–176, 2005), and Charnock (J Roy Meteor Soc 81: 639–640, 1955). Charnock’s parameterization, either constant with high value (0.022) or relying on a full statistical description of the sea state, enables to improve storm surges forecast with peak errors 10 cm smaller than those computed with the other drag coefficient formulations. The impact of the meteorological forcing quality is evaluated over January 2012 from the comparison between surges modeled with different meteorological data (ARPEGE, ARPEGE High Resolution and AROME) and observations. For event time scale, storm surge computation is highly improved with ARPEGE High Resolution data. For month time scale, statistics of model accuracy are less sensitive to the choice of meteorological forcing. As a conclusion, the Charnock’s parameterization is advised to model storm surges on the French Atlantic and English Channel coasts, whereas the quality requirements regarding meteorological inputs depend on the time scale of interest. Within the PREVIMER system, aiming at forecasting events, ARPEGE High Resolution data are used.

Applying POT methods to the Revised Joint Probability Method for determining extreme sea levels

Newly exposed concepts of POT declustering (Bernardara et al., 2014) within the GPD-Poisson model are applied to the joint probability of tide and surge for determining extreme sea levels, as a variation of the Revised Joint Probability Method (RJPM, Tawn and Vassie, 1989). A mixture model is proposed for the meteorological residual (surge) component with a non-parametric (empirical) density for the bulk values and parametric models for both the lower and upper tails. In particular, a distinction is made between values observed at regular time steps, called sequential values, and the clusters of extreme values, or events, on which the statistical extrapolations are performed. The sea level distribution is obtained by convolution of the tide and surge density functions. Confidence intervals are also proposed. This model is applied to the case study of Brest, France using both hourly and high water values. Two methods for handling tide–surge interaction are presented and discussed and a comparison with a direct approach is made.

Bay of Bengal cyclone extreme water level estimate uncertainty

Accurate estimates of storm surge magnitude and frequency are essential to coastal flood risk studies. Much research has focused on tide–surge interaction and joint probability techniques to combine multiple cyclone characteristics. In the Bay of Bengal, extreme water levels are derived from numerical storm surge models based on an idealised cyclone event; however, uncertainty within such calculations for this region is poorly understood, especially when propagated through to the flood hazard. We use the IBTrACs data set to estimate natural variability in four key parameters used to describe an idealised cyclone and create a set of idealised but equally likely “1 in 50 year” recurrence interval cyclone events. Each idealised cyclone is then used to force a storm surge model to give predicted peak water levels along the northern Bay of Bengal coast. Finally, extreme water level uncertainty is propagated through an inundation model to predict flood extent and depth over inland coastal floodplains. The descriptive parameters of 18 cyclone events (between 1990 and 2008) appear to show no statistically significant variation (at the 5 % level) due to landfall location, which allows us to pool characteristics for the entire Bay of Bengal. We find that the natural variability of cyclone parameters translates into large uncertainty both for storm surge height (of the order of metres) and for coastal inundation (hundreds of km2). Using the variability estimates for a 1-in-50-year cyclone event making landfall at the 2007 Sidr location, cyclone central pressure drop uncertainty had the greatest effect upon simulated storm surge magnitude. However, uncertainty within cyclone track characteristics (track speed, landfall and genesis location) has greater influence on subsequent inundation extent. Storm surge hazard uncertainty due to cyclone parameter variability was found to be comparable to the inundation difference simulated when the peak surge coincided with either a mean spring high or low water. Our research indicates the importance of improving extreme water level estimates along the Bay of Bengal coastline for robust flood hazard management decisions in the Bay of Bengal.

Observed characteristics of tide-surge interaction along the east coast of India and the head of Bay of Bengal

Hourly tide-gauge data at Chennai, Visakhapatnam and Paradip along the east coast of India and at Hiron Point, at the head of Bay of Bengal, were analysed statistically for tide-surge interaction. Dependency of surge maxima on magnitude and phase of the tide were examined separately and interaction was quantified for each site. Along the east coast of India, interaction is found to be less, but significant. The degree of interaction is highest at Hiron Point, where surges peak more frequently about 4 h before the high tide. Application of a simple model shows the observed surge peak distribution at Hiron Point can be explained in terms of phase alteration of tide due to surge and surge modulation by tide. The degree of interaction tends to increase northward as the tidal range and surge height increases.

웨이블릿방법을 이용한 조위편차 성분 분리 및 단주기 특성 분석

The fact that tidal residuals are detected greatly at the tide-dominated region implies that tide component has still remained in the tidal residual. Auto-correlation function analysis also show that the auto-correlation coefficients are conspicuous near tidal periods at the Western Coast. A wavelet method was used to analyze characteristics of the short period or tide-relevant residuals. Considering the results that tidal period is prominent at the tide-dominated region, that seasonal variation is trivial at the short periods, and that shallow tidal period is conspicuous at Mokpo, the short period can be considered to be correlated with tide modulated surge. The result also shows short period components stem mainly from tide-forecasting error and tide-surge interaction. Thus tide modulated surge must be distinguished from meteorological surge.

Storm surge and tidal interaction in the Tjeldsund channel, northern Norway

The aim of this study is to investigate tide–surge interaction in narrow channels with complex and relatively shallow topography. A high-resolution depth-integrated tidal and storm surge model has been implemented for the Tjeldsund channel which is an important sailing lane in northern Norway. A horizontal grid resolution down to 50 m is applied in order to represent the complex bottom topography and the formation of jets and small-scale eddies. Two typically storm surge events in December 2004 have been examined in detail. The tide–surge interaction is found to influence the generation of higher harmonics and the formation of eddies in the current field. In some cases, the magnitude of storm surge currents may reach the same magnitude as the tidal currents enhancing the formation of jets and eddies.

Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction

In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.

Tide–surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters

The research presented in this paper involves the application of the joint probability method to the estimation of extreme water levels resulting from astronomical tides and surge residuals and the investigation of the effects of tide–surge interactions on extreme water levels. The distribution of tide peaks was analysed from field records (<20 years) and a 46-year dataset of monthly maximum tidal amplitudes. Large surges were extracted from both field records and a numerical model hindcast covering the 48 largest storm events in the Irish Sea over the period 1959–2005. Extreme storm surges and tides were independently modelled using the generalised extreme value statistical model, and derived probability distributions were used to compute extreme water levels. An important, and novel, aspect of this research is an analysis of tide–surge interactions and their effects on total water level; where interactions exist, they lead to lower total water levels than in the case of independency. The degree of decrease varies with interaction strength, magnitude of surge peak at a particular phase of tide and the distribution of peaks over a tidal cycle. Therefore, including interactions in the computation of extreme levels may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.

Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

Abstract. The English Channel is characterised by strong tidal currents and a wide tidal range, such that their influence on surges is expected to be non-negligible. In order to better assess storm surges in this zone, tide-surge interactions are investigated. A preliminary data analysis on hourly surges indicates some preferential times of occurrence of large storm surges at rising tide, especially in Dunkerque. To examine this further, a numerical modelling approach is chosen, based on the 2DH shallow-water model (MARS). The surges are computed both with and without tide interaction. For the two selected events (the November 2007 North Sea and March 2008 Atlantic storms), it appears that the instantaneous tide-surge interaction is seen to be non-negligible in the eastern half of the English Channel, reaching values of 74 cm (i.e. 50% of the same event maximal storm surge) in the Dover Strait for the studied cases. This interaction decreases in westerly direction. In the risk-analysis community in France, extreme water levels have been determined assuming skew surges and tide as independent. The same hydrodynamic model is used to investigate this dependence in the English Channel. Simple computations are performed with the same meteorological forcing, while varying the tidal amplitude, and the skew surge differences DSS are analysed. Skew surges appear to be tide-dependent, with negligible values of DSS (&lt;0.05 m) over a large portion of the English Channel, although reaching several tens of centimetres in some locations (e.g. the Isle of Wight and Dover Strait).

Tidal characteristics in Bass Strait, south-east Australia

We used a two-dimensional, barotropic, numerical model to examine the complex behaviour of the tides in Bass Strait. Bass Strait, located in south-east Australia between the Australian continent and Tasmania, has the appropriate dimensions to create a half-wave tidal resonance for the M2 tides. The M2 tidal wave (amplitude < 0.4 m) enters the strait from both strait openings, increasing the M2 tidal amplitude towards the central northern Tasmanian coast to a maximum of ∼1.1 m. The tidal phases and current ellipses in the strait showed the M2 tides resembled a half-wavelength resonance in a curved, open basin. The semidiurnal, S2, and diurnal, K1 and O1, tidal amplitudes were comparatively small (<0.2 m), progressive in nature and mostly constant through the strait. The model simulations revealed that when only open boundary tidal (OBT) forcing was included in the model, the model over predicted the M2 amplitudes by ∼10–15% in the strait's central region; when OBT and direct gravitational tidal (DGT) forcing were included, the model accurately reproduced the observed tidal amplitudes. DGT forcing was used to generate resonantly amplified M2 tides (amplitudes of 0.1–0.3 m) locally, with destructive interference between the OBT-forced and DGT-forced tides occurring in the centre of the strait. The model simulations also revealed that storm systems propagating west to east attenuated the M2 tidal amplitudes in the strait. The greatest decrease in the tidal amplitudes occurred along the central northern Tasmanian coast and was attributed to tide surge interaction and resonance behaviour in the strait.

Contribution of offshore islands in the prediction of water levels due to tide–surge interaction for the coastal region of Bangladesh

In this study, a doubly nested tide–surge interaction model was established for the coastal region of Bangladesh. A fine grid model, capable of incorporating all major offshore islands, was nested into a coarse grid model extending up to 15°N latitude of the Bay of Bengal. To take into account the thickly populated small and big islands between Barisal and Chittagong and the extreme bending of the coastline accurately, a very fine grid model for this region was again nested into the fine grid model. Along the northeast corner of this very fine grid model, the Meghna River discharge was taken into account. The boundaries of the coast and islands were approximated through proper stair step, and the model equations were solved by semi–implicit finite difference technique using staggered grid. Appropriate tidal regime over the model domain was generated by forcing the sea level to be oscillatory with the constituent M2 along the southern open boundary of the coarse grid model omitting wind stress. This previously generated tidal regime was introduced as the initial state of the sea for nonlinear tide–surge interaction phenomenon. The model was applied to estimate water levels along the coastal region of Bangladesh due to the interaction of tide and surge associated with the storm April 1991, and the results were found to be in a reasonable agreement with those observed. The model was used to investigate the influence of offshore islands on water levels and water levels were found to be significantly influenced by offshore islands.

Tide–surge interaction model including air bubble effects for the coast of Bangladesh

An estimate of water levels due to the interaction of tide and surge associated with a storm including air bubble effects is made along the coastal region of Bangladesh. For this purpose, a vertically integrated shallow water model in Cartesian coordinate system is developed introducing air bubbles and is solved using nested finite difference schemes. A fine grid model covering the region between 21°15′N to 23°N and 89°E to 92° E has been nested into a coarse grid model covering the region between 15°N to 23°N and 85°E to 95°E in the Bay of Bengal to incorporate all the major islands and coastal bending accurately. By applying tidal forcing through the southern open boundary of the coarse grid model appropriate tidal conditions are generated in the problem domain. Numerical experiments are performed with the help of the model to simulate water levels due to tide and surge interaction including air bubble effects associated with the tropical storm of April 1991. The model results are found to be reasonable and the model can be found to simulate higher water levels in the presence of air bubbles.

Modelling of tide and surge elevations in the Solent and surrounding waters: The importance of tide–surge interactions

A regional two-dimensional hydrodynamic model using the MIKE-21 software and data from a pre-operational forecasting system of the English Channel is described and applied to the Solent–Southampton Water estuarine system. The regional model was able to predict surge heights with a root mean squared error (RMSE) accuracy of 0.09 m during a three month hindcast in the winter of 2009, comparing closely with accuracy assessments from other independent systems. However, consistent underprediction of tidal harmonic constituent amplitudes was present throughout the region leading to errors in the prediction of the total water level elevations. Despite the complex nature of the Solent tidal regime, interpolation of tidal elevations from harmonic analysis at fixed tide gauge locations was shown to be effective in reducing this uncertainty at gauged and un-gauged sites. The degree to which tide–surge interactions were taking place was examined. Of particular interest was the quantification of the sensitivity of the predicted surge to the levels of uncertainty expected in the prediction of the tide within a complex nearshore region such as the Solent. The tide–surge interaction during three surge events was shown to be greatest in the Western Solent and Southampton Waters regions, where the tidal uncertainty was greatest. Interaction between the tide and surge resulted in a change of up to 0.3 m (11%) in the predicted total peak water level when the surge was added to the harmonic analysis-based tidal prediction. Despite the significant effect of removing the tide–surge interactions, tests indicated that the error in tidal range expected in the regional models tidal prediction altered the prediction of the surge only enough to induce changes in peak total water elevations by up to 0.03 m during an event on 10th March 2008. The findings suggest that the current tidal predictions in complex estuarine systems, such as the Solent, are of high enough quality to reproduce the majority of the tide–surge interactions taking place and that the error in the surge due to uncertainties in the predicted tide are expected to be relatively small.