Globally, many estuaries are suffering from land reclamation that drastically influences estuarine hydrodynamics. It has been reported that reclamation may induce tidal regime shifts in small converging estuaries, but it is not clear whether such regime shifts can also occur in wide estuarine bays. Lingding Bay (LDB) in Pearl River Estuary, southern China has a sufficient width (ca. 60 km) and a long history of reclamation (approximately 3.99 × 10 8 km 2 over the past century), forming an ideal area to study the mechanism of tidal regime shift in wide bays. Based on a state-of-the-art modeling tool (Delft3D Flexible Mesh), tidal propagation pattern in 1917, 1964, 1989 and 2016 was reproduced accounting for reclamation-induced shoreline changes. Our results reveal a prominent shift in tidal amplitude, residual current, and tidal energy flux in the period of 1989–2016, even though the reclamation area in this period was the smallest among the three studied periods. The reason for such shift is that reclamation of key areas amplified the imbalanced tidal energy distribution between the western and eastern LDB, and such imbalance exceeded a tipping point around 1989. This regime shift may increase the relative tidal forcing in the eastern LDB, which means stronger saltwater intrusion and higher flooding risk. Our findings indicate that tidal dynamics of LDB has been greatly altered over the last century in the LDB, where the scale and location of the reclamation are of key importance. The insights obtained from this study are valuable to the future management of LDB and other estuaries that are under reclamation stress. • The continuous land reclamation triggered a different response of the tidal dynamics in the Lingding Bay (LDB) around 1989. • The increased lateral difference resulted in regime shifts in the tidal motion in the LDB. • The tidal motion in the LDB showed threshold behavior in response to reclamation. • The altered tidal motion may lead the morphology to a new pattern as a snow ball effect requiring further studies.
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