Threshold Price Research Articles

Cost-effectiveness of Universal Hepatitis C Screening in Pregnant Women: A Systematic Review.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology has shifted from the baby-boomer generation to young women of childbearing age. The health benefits and cost-effectiveness (CE) of screening pregnant women remain controversial. To systematically review published studies evaluating the CE of screening pregnant women for HCV in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). We conducted a systematic literature search of CE studies evaluating the costs and benefits of screening pregnant women for HCV. Pertinent information including antiviral agent, drug costs, incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER), and infant care was collected. The authors' definition of the threshold price at which screening was deemed CE was also recorded. The quality of studies was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reports Standards (CHEERS) checklist. We identified 5 studies that evaluated the ICER of screening pregnant women for HCV. Of these, 2 utilized all oral DAAs, with universal screening CE. The ICER of these 2 studies was $3000 and $41,000 per quality of life-years gained. The remaining studies were interferon-based regimens. Most studies did not include screening of infants. Universally screening pregnant women for HCV was CE in studies that utilized oral DAAs. Most pharmacoeconomic studies failed to incorporate the impact of vertical transmission on infants.

Partial liquidation under reference-dependent preferences

We propose a multiple optimal stopping model where an investor can sell a divisible asset position at times of her choosing. Investors have S-shaped reference-dependent preferences, whereby utility is defined over gains and losses relative to a reference level and is concave over gains and convex over losses. For a price process following a time-homogeneous diffusion, we employ the constructive potential-theoretic solution method developed by Dayanik and Karatzas (Stoch. Process. Appl. 107:173–212, 2003). As an example, we revisit the single optimal stopping model of Kyle et al. (J. Econ. Theory 129:273–288, 2006) to allow partial liquidation. In contrast to the extant literature, we find that the investor may partially liquidate the asset at distinct price thresholds above the reference level. Under other parameter combinations, the investor sells the asset in a block, either at or above the reference level.

The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

BackgroundWe estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market in low socioeconomic areas in South Africa before and after a tax increase. In 2018, the real excise tax increased by...

Revenue maximization of Internet of things provider using variable neighbourhood search

Internet of things (IoT) covers various aspects of collecting and exchanging data between diverse entities. From IoT provider’s perspective, one of the most significant issues is how to set the price that maximizes its revenue while meeting users’ requirements. In this paper, we focus on revenue maximization of the IoT service provider by applying pay per use pricing within the combinatorial sealed-bid auction. Pay per use pricing option implies that each user is charged per unit of consumption according to the actual usage. We assume that a user pays a threshold price for a unit of consumption, which is determined based on the auction. The auction is conducted with bidding prices set up in advance within service level agreement (SLA). We use variable neighbourhood search (VNS) in order to derive the optimal threshold price that maximizes IoT provider’s revenue, and users’ satisfaction. In addition, the optimization within the auction mechanism is conducted using different metaheuristics, which are compared with two types of VNS algorithms.

Pricing Decisions for a Sustainable Supply Chain in the Presence of Potential Strategic Customers

In service to sustainable development, consumers have begun to prefer green products for their special environmental characteristics, and many enterprises are introducing new products to improve their competitiveness, but this tactic may not work if customers are strategic, as they might choose to defer purchasing decisions while prices are high and wait for lower prices in the future. Considering the differences in purchase behavior, we divided customers into two groups—strategic customers and myopic customers. Furthermore, we distinguished three types of strategic customers according to their different preferences to analyze the optimal pricing and greenness strategies in sustainable supply chain in strategic customer scenarios. Our results led to the following conclusions. (1) Strategic customers’ individual preferences can affect optimum equilibrium and that a higher purchase price threshold can stimulate the manufacturer to improve greenness and set a higher price, while a higher greenness purchase threshold and purchase value threshold will force manufacturer to set a lower price. (2) We observed that strategic customers can increase demand and vender profit. As the number of strategic customers increases, selling price and greenness will experience downward trends in a price threshold scenario but upward trends in greenness threshold and value threshold scenarios. (3) A firm can take measures to mitigate the effects of strategic customers by adjusting price and greenness dynamically according to price and greenness sensitivity, which can play a leading role in actively influencing strategic customer behavior.

Evaluation of a standard reference material for falling number measurement

AbstractBackground and objectivesFalling number (FN), a long‐standing procedure that indirectly measures α‐amylase activity, is routinely used in official inspection operations and commerce to infer processing characteristics and end‐use quality of wheat. Because price may be moderated by FN, good precision of this procedure is essential. A study was enacted to search for a reference material that can be used to monitor FN instruments in a network. Because starch is the largest component of the wheat grain and responsible for the viscous behavior of paste meals, pure forms of starch were considered. Four native starches were selected, corn (from maize), potato, rice, and wheat. Weekly measurements were made over three months using two FN instruments in anticipation that eventual network monitoring programs in government and industry will consist of control charting at this frequency.FindingsCorn starch produced the best precision, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.4%–1.7%. The noncereal starch, potato, had the poorest precision (CV = 6.1%–6.9%). All starches were stable, showing no time effect over the evaluation period. Additional testing on corn starches from other sources (laboratory supply, wholesale, and grocery retail) produced consistent results with respect to the original corn starch.ConclusionsPure native corn starch was the most suitable of the selected four starches for use as a standard reference material for FN.Significance and noveltyBecause of increased reliance on FN as a grading criterion or pricing threshold, added pressure is placed on regulatory bodies to assure the industry of the integrity of system. This work identifies corn starch as a suitable standard reference material for FN and establishes precision limits in time monitoring programs.

Supply contracts for critical and strategic materials of high volatility and their ramifications for supply chains

For critical and strategic materials such as a rare earth element or crude oil, we study a supply chain consisting of an intermediary/producer facing a highly volatile market to its customers and a local supplier at a different region subject to a fixed term supply contract. By viewing the opportunity to sign this contract as a real option, we construct a supply contract model and analytically derive the optimal contract-signing threshold price from the intermediary/producer perspective. Based on this threshold, we show how the relationship among the threshold price, lead time, and contract duration results in a classification of the supply chain’s preferences for lead time length, and to concrete guidelines for using the lead time and contract duration as tradable negotiation tools for supply chain contracts.

Optimal Investment Strategy in Renewable Energy Technologies

This paper analyzes the energy manager's investment decision in renewable energy technologies in the presence of uncertain production volumes. In this model, we assume the energy manager to be a price taker who aims at minimizing the cost to cover the firm's electricity demand, by deciding upon the optimal level of investment in renewable self-generation facilities. We show, that the Reliability-based-planning paradigm'', where threshold on the demand coverage probability is imposed, leads to suboptimal renewable energy portfolios compared to the Balancing-cost-based-planning paradigm'', where the price of demand coverage violations is exogeneously fixed. We analyze the energy manager's optimal investment decision in renewables in the balancing-cost-based approach for two different types of the outside option, i.e. purchasing residual power (i) via pre-contracted energy at a fixed price or (ii) at the balancing market with a stochastic energy price. We find that the energy manager is reluctant to invest in renewable energy technologies, when the price of pre-contracted energy is below a critical threshold price, which itself decreases with decreasing prices of the investment goods. Moreover, the energy manager increases investment in renewables with increasing spot price volatility in order to hedge against spot price risk. In the presence of negative correlations between the power output and spot price, i.e. whenever there is a shortfall in the power supply energy prices tend to be higher, the energy manager's optimal decision is to increase (decrease) the optimal level of investment depending on weather the level of investment in the uncorrelated scenario is high (low).

Warranty parameters for extended two-dimensional warranties incorporating consumer preferences

Certain products, such as automobiles, typically have warranty policies that incorporate two dimensions, namely time since purchase of the product and usage based on mileage accumulated. If both of these parameters are less than stipulated values in the warranty policy, in case of product failure, the manufacturer replaces or repairs the product free of charge. In many consumer durable goods, while an initial warranty is offered during purchase of the product, options exist to renew the warranty in the event of no product failure during the initial warranty. In this paper we consider such extended warranties in the context of two-dimensional policies. The decision variables in the formulated model are the warranty time and usage in the initial policy, the warranty time and usage in the extended policy, the product price, and the premium to be charged by the manufacturer for extending the warranty. We assume, however, that not all customers will choose to renew the warranty even if the product did not fail during the initial warranty. Customer propensity to renew warranty could be influenced by the unit product price and the customer's threshold price level, above which the customer is motivated to purchase an extended warranty.

A GIS-based green supply chain model for assessing the effects of carbon price uncertainty on plastic recycling

Recycling plastic can abate the environmental pollution as well as CO2 emissions by saving the carbon-intensive feedstock input. The uncertain carbon price places significant effects on the establishment and operation of the whole supply chain. This study develops a green supply chain model combined with geographic information system (GIS) to account for carbon price uncertainty and evaluate its effects on the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) of plastic recycling. A two-stage stochastic programming model is constructed, in which the stochastic variable, CO2 price is modelled as a geometric Brownian motion process. Six scenarios are designed with respect to price expectation and volatility. A case study is performed with the GIS information of the plastic supply chain in Zhejiang province, China. The results illustrate that triggering the establishment of reverse logistics requires a carbon price threshold significantly beyond the current level. Lower price volatility would facilitate the decision-making of investment into the reverse logistics. Mechanisms to alleviate the market variation shall be introduced. A sound market condition is desired to obtain the optimal balance that encourages the CLSC without creating extra pressure on the firms. The proposed modelling framework can be easily applied to other sectors with similar characteristics.

Prediksi Harga Terendah Dan Harga Tertinggi Dengan Menggunakan Metode Anfis Untuk Analisa Teknikal Pada Forex Market

Forex Market Is a type of currency trading of the country that handles the world currency market within 24 hours agreed, foreign exchange trading has become an alternative for investors to save more trades in general and traders are required to support good technical analysis of good fundamentals so that able to reap huge profits. Technical analysis is an analysis used to estimate prices will fall at the lower price threshold (support) and the upper price threshold (resistance). Fibonacci Retracement is a method often used for technical analysis of rising prices or rising prices. The data used in this study was downloaded from the FBS Forex Market server which consists of open, high, low, close, and volume data. The next step is grouping data as a preprocessing method with the k-means method to normalize the data before the data is processed in the proposed method, the k-means method is a method of grouping data based on the nearest cluster object. One of the advantages of the k-means method is simple, efficient and easy to apply. In this study, artificial neural network and fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Fibonacci Retracement methods are used to predict support and resistance levels. Testing is done using training data and test data with different time intervals. This data produces the highest level of testing based on data from 3 January 2015 - December 2017 and 1 month test data for the period January 2018 100% weekly real data ,. While the value of the accuracy of the trial data period 1 to 2 years and 1 month test data for the period January 2018 daily real data, which is 40%. The average value of the experiment using training data and test data with different time intervals was 52.61%.

Cost-effectiveness and value-based prices of the 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer in China: an economic modelling analysis

ObjectivesTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 9-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer in China.DesignHealth economic modelling using the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics...

The Scottish case: minimum unit pricing for alcohol

Abstract There have been longstanding social and public health concerns about the levels of harmful alcohol consumption in Scotland. The Alcohol (Minimum Pricing) (Scotland) Act 2012 targets all alcohol sold through licensed premises in Scotland by ensuring it cannot be sold below a set minimum unit price. The pricing policy is currently set at 50p per unit of alcohol. Following a legal challenge and a vote in the Scottish Parliament, minimum unit pricing was implemented in Scotland on 1 May 2018. The aim of the Scottish alcohol policy has been to reduce the adverse public health consequences of alcohol consumption. It has also been identified as a potential measure for reducing health inequalities since alcohol-related harms are strongly socially patterned. The Scottish alcohol policy is important case to consider for a number of reasons. First, the nature of the policy differs. Rather than the introduction of a variable floor price, which may encourage switching in consumption from one product to another to maintain alcohol intake, minimum unit pricing introduces a price threshold that is uniform across all alcohol products. Second, minimum unit pricing is being introduced into a competitive commercial environment with strong vested interests, rather than a government-controlled monopoly. Third, the policy has been framed as a public health intervention, rather than primarily for revenue-raising reasons. Research on its development and evaluation will be considered to inform broader discussions on policy advocacy. Here we show a visualisation of the minimum unit pricing policy network to highlight how the public health community could work in more coordinated manner to support alcohol policy interventions.

PIH67 THE CHANGES OF COST FOR PREECLAMPSIA PREGNANCY AFTER THE ANGIOGENIC FACTORS (SFLT-1 AND PLGF) TESTS. PRELIMINARY DATA OF AN ECONOMIC MODEL BASED ON LOCAL RWD.

Angiogenic factors (sFlt-1 and PlGF) play an important role in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia and their concentrations in maternal serum are altered before in diagnosis of preeclampsia. This study aims to evaluate the changes of cost for preeclampsia pregnancy after the incorporation of this test. A review on pregnant patients hospitalizations costs was conducted through local RWD ( Paraná State ). Economic evaluations and observational studies evaluating the cost of managing preeclampsia pregnant in Germany, France, the UK were included for comparision ( to be cost-saving by reducing unnecessary hospitalization of women at low risk of developing pre-eclampsia). Total hospitalizations costs and items including direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and indirect costs were extracted. Mean costs evaluated before the introduction of Angiogenic factors (sFlt-1 and PlGF) tests were directly compared with the mean costs after for each cost item. As the results the hospitalizations costs for pre eclampsia pregnant studies were included. In economic models, cost for pre eclampsia pregnant after the introduction of Angiogenic factors (sFlt-1 and PlGF) tests were speculated. Women of childbearing age : ∼ 177.557 in Paraná State . Pre-eclampsia local RWD 8 ∼ 10% of pregnant women. Expect 17.000 pregnancies with possible pre-eclampsia. Statistical model ∼ one hospital admission: from 33.4% to 38.8% ; two hospitalizations: from 5.4% to 10.0% ; three or more hospitalizations: 4.0% to 8.4% according to local data. Hospitalizations costs range from 346.800 USD to 3.145.000 USD for one to three inpatients days. Following the PlGF / sFlt-1 test recommendation , our study showed that is clear the reducing of hospitalization for pre-eclampsia pregnancy by comparing the local RWD before and after adotion of the new technology test. Further studies are need due to price threshold value and the value of patient health.

Role of customer attributes on absolute price thresholds

Purpose This paper aims to examine how customer heterogeneity influences absolute price thresholds in a service industry. Design/methodology/approach Customer purchase behavior is studied in the context of a firm’s and competitor’s price changes. Customer purchase behavior is further examined in the context of specific customer attributes such as loyalty, motivation, online purchase channel, gender and frequency of purchase. The study uses a longitudinal data set spanning over 44 months and tracks over 13,000 of a firm’s customers, totaling over 200,000 transactions from a parking services provider. Findings Results show that absolute price thresholds affect purchasing decisions. Customers are willing to pay a range of prices for a considered purchase, and when a price is within customers’ acceptable price range, it does not induce a change in their purchase behavior. However, specific identifiable customer attributes influence the propensity to continue buying and influence the acceptable price range. Practical implications Knowledge from this study can be applied to developing a deeper understanding of customers and their price thresholds to improve customer retention and firm performance after a price change. Originality/value For a better understanding of the consumer choice process, it is essential to understand what factors affect price thresholds. Additionally, very few studies are using transaction-level data to empirically validate concepts from behavioral price research in the service industry, and none that do it at an individual customer level over three years.

Willingness to pay for QALY: perspectives and contexts in Japan

Objectives: Theoretically, willingness-to-pay (WTP) for quality-adjusted life years (QALY) can vary depending on social and personal preferences and on ex-ante and ex-post settings. However, empirical investigations into the theoretical differences are lacking. In Japan, setting the threshold has been controversial since a pilot project to implement health technology assessments (HTA) launched in 2016. The study aim is to estimate WTP values for one additional QALY from different perspectives, health statuses, and contexts to confirm the difficulty in setting a uniform price threshold using WTP.Methods: More than 1,000 respondents representing a cross-section of the Japanese population answered each of nine questionnaire decks in an online panel. WTP values were estimated on three different perspectives (personal, social, and socially inclusive) and on two contexts (ex-ante and ex-post). This study primarily used the non-parametric spike model based on double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) settings to obtain the conditional WTP values.Results: WTP per QALY was higher in the severe health status than in the moderate health status from all perspectives. Respondents from the socially inclusive perspective estimated the highest WTP value for a new drug. Respondents were also asked about life-threatening diseases in ex-post and ex-ante. The WTP value in ex-ante was higher than in ex-post, and demographic factors affecting the WTP were different in both situations. The various WTP values were obtained from these surveys.Limitations: The analysis was based on data collected from an internet panel, which could be biased. There is also a risk that respondents answered the questionnaire differently if asked in everyday situations.Conclusion: Use of a uniform price threshold may not be appropriate in policy settings, because it may not reflect diverse preferences based on different situations, such as disease type and severity. Setting a price threshold as Japan institutes an HTA system requires further research.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK

BackgroundHuman papillomavirus (HPV) is the most widespread sexually transmitted infection worldwide. It causes several health consequences, in particular accounting for the majority of cervical cancer cases in women. In the United Kingdom, a vaccination campaign targeting 12-year-old girls started in 2008; this campaign has been successful, with high uptake and reduced HPV prevalence observed in vaccinated cohorts. Recently, attention has focused on vaccinating both sexes, due to HPV-related diseases in males (particularly for high-risk men who have sex with men) and an equity argument over equalising levels of protection.MethodsWe constructed an epidemiological model for HPV transmission in the UK, accounting for nine of the most common HPV strains. We complemented this with an economic model to determine the likely health outcomes (healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years) for individuals from the epidemiological model. We then tested vaccination with the three HPV vaccines currently available, vaccinating either girls alone or both sexes. For each strategy we calculated the threshold price per vaccine dose, i.e. the maximum amount paid for the added health benefits of vaccination to be worth the cost of each vaccine dose. We calculated results at 3.5% discounting, and also 1.5%, to consider the long-term health effects of HPV infection.ResultsAt 3.5% discounting, continuing to vaccinate girls remains highly cost-effective compared to halting vaccination, with threshold dose prices of £56-£108. Vaccination of girls and boys is less cost-effective (£25-£53). Compared to vaccinating girls only, adding boys to the programme is not cost-effective, with negative threshold prices (-£6 to -£3) due to the costs of administration. All threshold prices increase when using 1.5% discounting, and adding boys becomes cost-effective (£36-£47). These results are contingent on the UK’s high vaccine uptake; for lower uptake rates, adding boys (at the same uptake rate) becomes more cost effective.ConclusionsVaccinating girls is extremely cost-effective compared with no vaccination, vaccinating both sexes is less so. Adding boys to an already successful girls-only programme has a low cost-effectiveness, as males have high protection through herd immunity. If future health effects are weighted more heavily, threshold prices increase and vaccination becomes cost-effective.

PND42 COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF ERENUMAB VERSUS TOPIRAMATE FOR PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC MIGRAINES TO IDENTIFY THE COST-EFFECTIVE PRICE THRESHOLD IN GREECE

Erenumab is a new preventive treatment for chronic migraine (CM) which has not yet been priced in Greece. This study evaluated the costs and outcomes of erenumab as a first-line preventative treatment for CM in Greece, compared to topiramate (TPM), an antiepileptic drug often used for CM, focusing on erenumab price thresholds required to attain cost-effectiveness benchmarks. A decision-tree model was used to project costs and outcomes, expressed as migraines avoided and as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), from both a payer and societal perspective. The time-horizon was one year and all costs were calculated in 2018 euros (€). Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of parameter uncertainty on model results. From an initial state of no treatment, treatment with erenumab resulted in a reduction of 12 additional migraines per year compared to the reduction for TPM. Using an erenumab price of €203/month (estimated from past pricing of analogous drugs in Greece relative to the US price of $575/month), the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €171 per migraine avoided and €186,813 per QALY gained, from a payer’s perspective. Accounting for both medical and non-medical costs (societal perspective), the ICERs were €163.7 per migraine avoided and €178,541 per QALY gained. Using a common existing cost-effectiveness threshold equal to three times local GDP per capita (€49,000 for Greece), for the erenumab ICER fall below this threshold, the erenumab price would have to be no more than €75 (payer perspective) or €83 (societal perspective). However, model results indicated that erenumab, as a second-line treatment for patients who fail TPM treatment, might be considered cost-effective at the €203/month price, with an ICER of €36,760 (payer perspective). Erenumab might be cost-effective as a first-line preventative treatment of CM in Greece, but only at a highly reduced price compared to the US price.

Oil price thresholds and stock returns

ABSTRACTIn this article, we apply the threshold autoregressive model to examine oil price thresholds and the relationship between oil prices and the returns of 25 benchmark portfolios formed on size and book-to-market. Our results show that the relationship between the change in oil prices and portfolio returns reverses depending on whether the current oil price is above or below the estimated oil price threshold. Additional results show that this threshold effect is concentrated in the small stock portfolios. Finally, our finding that there is a threshold effect of oil price changes on stock returns is consistent with the theoretical model of investor sentiment presented by Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) and is intuitively consistent with the economic dynamics and structure of the oil industry.

Cost for sickle cell disease screening using isoelectric focusing with dried blood spot samples and estimation of price thresholds for a point-of-care test in Uganda.

BackgroundEarly identification through newborn screening is the first step in active management of sickle cell disease (SCD). Uganda currently screens newborns and infants under 2 years for SCD in high HIV-burden districts using isoelectric focusing with dried blood spot samples. Our analysis sought to estimate the costs per child screened for SCD using this method in Uganda and then to use those data to estimate the price threshold for screening with a point-of-care (POC) test.MethodsWe estimated the financial and economic costs per child screened for SCD using data from health facilities and the Central Public Health Laboratory. These costs included sample collection, transportation, and laboratory processing. Price thresholds for a POC test were estimated using two scenarios.ResultsThe price threshold of an SCD POC test used for diagnosis would be $3.77 when taking into account only financial costs and $5.14 when taking into account economic costs. Thresholds for a POC test used for screening would be $3.07–$3.51 and $4.38–$5.09, respectively, depending on test specificity.ConclusionThe price threshold of a POC test for SCD will depend on the assumptions on how it will be used – either as a screening or diagnostic test. If used for screening, test specificity will have significant impact. Results from this type of costing study can allow developers to incorporate quantitatively estimated price thresholds for innovative products into target product profiles early in the product development cycle.