Persistence Threshold Research Articles

Analysis of the persistent photoresponse of C8BTBT transistors in the near-bandgap spectral region

The variations in physical parameters of an organic field-effect transistor having dioctylbenzothieno[2,3-b]benzothiophene (C8BTBT) as the channel semiconductor were investigated under different light irradiation conditions at wavelengths of 350 nm, 370 nm, 400 nm and by increasing exposure doses. The progress of the electro-optical history of the transistor was evaluated by repeating I–V scan cycles both in the dark and under light exposure. The information recorded upon different exposure times was used to detect the photoactivated charge-trapping effects. The device showed a stable I–V response in the dark bias (VDS = −10 V, −10 V ≤ VGS ≤ +10 V) conditions and a persistent threshold voltage (VT) shift under illumination at all irradiation wavelengths. We suggested that the observed dose-dependent VT drifts were due to charge retention in trap sites within the organic semiconductor. The threshold voltage was recognized as the main parameter affected by charge retention. VT variations were modelled versus time through a single exponential revealing a maximum in charge relaxation times for irradiations at wavelengths of 370 nm, in proximity of the C8BTBT bandgap energy. Furthermore, bias-stress effects and persistent photoinduced VT drifts were found to depend on comparable characteristic times. Therefore, a common nature for both the bias-stress decay and relaxation from photoexcitation mechanisms is likely.

Are All Hosts Created Equal? Partitioning Host Species Contributions to Parasite Persistence in Multihost Communities.

Many parasites circulate endemically within communities of multiple host species. To understand disease persistence within these communities, it is essential to know the contribution each host species makes to parasite transmission and maintenance. However, quantifying those contributions is challenging. We present a conceptual framework for classifying multihost sharing, based on key thresholds for parasite persistence. We then develop a generalized technique to quantify each species' contribution to parasite persistence, allowing natural systems to be located within the framework. We illustrate this approach using data on gastrointestinal parasites circulating within rodent communities and show that, although many parasites infect several host species, parasite persistence is often driven by just one host species. In some cases, however, parasites require multiple host species for maintenance. Our approach provides a quantitative method for differentiating these cases using minimal reliance on system-specific parameters, enabling informed decisions about parasite management within poorly understood multihost communities.

Floodplain persistence and dynamic-equilibrium conditions in a canyon environment

Canyon river systems are laterally constrained by steep walls, strath terraces, and bedrock intrusions; however, semialluvial reaches are nested within these environments as discontinuous floodplains along the river margins. These semialluvial floodplains provide an example of dynamic-equilibrium set within high-energy fluvial systems, marking areas where the river is free to alter its boundary conditions. Most research has focused on hydraulic conditions necessary for floodplain formation and persistence in unconfined systems, whereas little is known about canyon streams. This paper focuses on (1) characterizing dynamic-equilibrium, (2) describing the controls on floodplain formation and distribution, and (3) evaluating the performance of extremal hypotheses to identify dynamic-equilibrium and floodplain persistence in high-energy, semiconfined canyon environments.These objectives were addressed with field and numerical data derived from a one-dimensional hydraulic model for bankfull and 100-year return interval flood events, supported by closely spaced cross sections for the lower 38-km canyon reach of the Deadwood River (Idaho). Under bankfull conditions, critical energy thresholds for equilibrium floodplain persistence at this study site present the upper limits of: slope=0.018, shear stress=175N/m2, and specific stream power=400W/m2. Channel and floodplains near equilibrium, quantified with a near-zero sediment transport divergence (Exner equation), were successfully identified by the minimum unit stream power extremal hypothesis and to a lesser degree by the other extremal hypotheses that minimize energy expenditure (minimum specific stream power, minimum total stream power, and minimum Froude number), provided backwater environments and major tributaries could be identified. Extremal results were compared to hydraulic geometry relations to evaluate how closely equilibrium floodplains approached values for unconfined alluvial river systems.

Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Borrelia burgdorferi promotes the establishment of Babesia microti in the northeastern United States.

Babesia microti and Borrelia burgdorferi, the respective causative agents of human babesiosis and Lyme disease, are maintained in their enzootic cycles by the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) and use the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) as primary reservoir host. The geographic range of both pathogens has expanded in the United States, but the spread of babesiosis has lagged behind that of Lyme disease. Several studies have estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0) for B. microti to be below the threshold for persistence (<1), a finding that is inconsistent with the persistence and geographic expansion of this pathogen. We tested the hypothesis that host coinfection with B. burgdorferi increases the likelihood of B. microti transmission and establishment in new areas. We fed I. scapularis larva on P. leucopus mice that had been infected in the laboratory with B. microti and/or B. burgdorferi. We observed that coinfection in mice increases the frequency of B. microti infected ticks. To identify the ecological variables that would increase the probability of B. microti establishment in the field, we integrated our laboratory data with field data on tick burden and feeding activity in an R 0 model. Our model predicts that high prevalence of B. burgdorferi infected mice lowers the ecological threshold for B. microti establishment, especially at sites where larval burden on P. leucopus is lower and where larvae feed simultaneously or soon after nymphs infect mice, when most of the transmission enhancement due to coinfection occurs. Our studies suggest that B. burgdorferi contributes to the emergence and expansion of B. microti and provides a model to predict the ecological factors that are sufficient for emergence of B. microti in the wild.

From regional pulse vaccination to global disease eradication: insights from a mathematical model of poliomyelitis.

Mass-vaccination campaigns are an important strategy in the global fight against poliomyelitis and measles. The large-scale logistics required for these mass immunisation campaigns magnifies the need for research into the effectiveness and optimal deployment of pulse vaccination. In order to better understand this control strategy, we propose a mathematical model accounting for the disease dynamics in connected regions, incorporating seasonality, environmental reservoirs and independent periodic pulse vaccination schedules in each region. The effective reproduction number, Re, is defined and proved to be a global threshold for persistence of the disease. Analytical and numerical calculations show the importance of synchronising the pulse vaccinations in connected regions and the timing of the pulses with respect to the pathogen circulation seasonality. Our results indicate that it may be crucial for mass-vaccination programs, such as national immunisation days, to be synchronised across different regions. In addition, simulations show that a migration imbalance can increase Re and alter how pulse vaccination should be optimally distributed among the patches, similar to results found with constant-rate vaccination. Furthermore, contrary to the case of constant-rate vaccination, the fraction of environmental transmission affects the value of Re when pulse vaccination is present.

Free circulating nucleic acids in plasma and serum as a novel approach to the use of internal controls in real time PCR based detection

Internal controls (ICs), are the main components of any real-time PCR based amplification methods, which are co-purified and co-amplified with the actual target. The existence of free circulating nucleic acids in plasma and serum (CNAPS) has been known for many years. The aim of this study was to verify whether CNAPS can be used as ICs in real-time PCR based detection and quantification of DNA or RNA targets in plasma and serum samples. Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) as a housekeeping gene, was chosen at random as CNAPS to serve as an intrinsic internal control in two different real-time PCR based quantification models in plasma and serum. Viral loads of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) RNA were quantified as actual targets in parallel to GAPDH as IC in a total of 519 serum or plasma samples including 21 healthy controls, 202 positive chronic hepatitis delta patients, 37 chronic hepatitis C patients, 168 chronic hepatitis B patients, 52 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, and 39 patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis/non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. GAPDH levels did not show significant variance in different patient groups and yielded positive signals in all 519 patients with persistent cycle threshold (CT) values 27.85±1.57 (mean±standard deviation (SD)). Reproducibility of the GAPDH amplification in HDV RNA and HBV DNA quantifications was shown with a SD value of CT ranging from 0.42 to 2.14 (mean SD; 1.18) and 0.24 to 1.75 (mean SD; 1.03), respectively.In conclusion, the freely circulating nucleic acids can clearly be used as internal controls for real-time PCR based detection and quantification of any RNA and mainly DNA targets (pathogens) in serum or plasma and this simply excludes the compulsory external addition of any IC molecules into the reaction.

Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar

This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC) No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV). It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy.

In Italy, during the course of the past century to the present-day, measles incidence underwent a remarkable decreasing trend that started well before the introduction of the national immunization programme. In this work, we aim at examining to what extent both the demographic transition, characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates over time, and the vaccination programme are responsible for the observed epidemiological pattern. Making use of a non-stationary, age-structured disease transmission model, we show that in the pre-vaccination era, from 1901 to 1982, the decline in birth rates has resulted in a drastic decrease in the effective transmission rate, which in turn has determined a declining trend of measles incidence (from 25.2 to 10.3 infections per 1000 individuals). However, since 1983, vaccination appears to have become the major contributing factor in the decrease of measles incidence, which otherwise would have remained stable as a consequence of the nearly constant birth rates. This led to a remarkable decrease in the effective transmission rate, to a level well below the critical threshold for disease persistence. These findings call for the adoption of epidemiological models, which deviate the age structure from stationary equilibrium solutions, to better understand the biology of infectious diseases and evaluate immunization programmes.

Modeling response of frosted flatwoods salamander populations to historic and predicted climate variables

For many amphibian species, particularly those that rely on ephemeral ponds for reproduction, population persistence can be dependent on landscape hydrology with years of suboptimal rainfall resulting in reproductive failure. Therefore, in order to accurately predict population persistence under future climate scenarios, it is necessary to incorporate pond hydrology. The frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum), a federally threatened species, has experienced dramatic population declines at Fort Stewart, Georgia. Here we used spatially explicit agent-based modeling to quantify the effects of historic climate data, with an emphasis on associated ephemeral pond depth and water retention, on salamander egg and larval survival. We then use these models to make predictions about climate thresholds for population persistence. Our models indicated wide fluctuations in Fort Stewart salamander populations from 1960 to 2010. Similar to what was documented with field collected survey data, our models showed a sharp decrease in populations during a drought in the late 1990s. Even modest reductions in annual rainfall (5–10%) would result in further population declines and more moderate reductions (20–25%) would result in population extirpation. Although climate change models predict relatively minor increases in temperature and precipitation in the Fort Stewart area, our models demonstrate the sensitivity of this salamander population to climate fluctuations and provide climate thresholds, below which, this population would likely not be able to recover.

Trophic Structure, Stability, and Parasite Persistence Threshold in Food Webs

Food web structure of free-living species is an important determinant of parasite species richness. Downwardly asymmetric predator-prey interactions (where there are more prey than predator species) have been shown, both theoretically and empirically, to harbour more trophically transmitted parasite species than expected due to chance. Here, we demonstrate that this could be due to the increase in the basic reproductive ratio that the addition of non-host prey species to a system creates. However, we note that the basic reproductive ratio is only increased by those prey that stabilise oscillations in a predator-prey system, and is decreased by those that do not.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

Summary A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage‐based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density‐dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log‐logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant‐induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density‐limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant‐induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Hearing Conservation Program for Marching Band Members: A Risk for Noise-Induced Hearing Loss?

To examine the risk for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) in university marching band members and to provide an overview of a hearing conservation program for a marching band. Sound levels during band rehearsals were recorded and audiometric hearing thresholds and transient otoacoustic emission were measured over a 3-year period. Musician's earplugs and information about hearing loss were provided to the students. The hearing thresholds of other college students were tested as a partial control. There were no significant differences in hearing thresholds between the two groups. During initial testing, more marching band members showed apparent high-frequency notches than control students. Follow-up hearing tests in a subsequent year for the marching band members showed that almost all notches disappeared. Persistent standard threshold shift (STS) across tests was not observed in the band members. Band members showed no evidence of STS or persistent notched audiograms. Because accepted procedures for measuring hearing showed a lack of precision in reliably detecting early NIHL in marching band members, it is recommended that signs of NIHL be sought in repeated measurements compared to baseline audiograms rather than in a single measure (a single notch). A hearing conservation program for this population is still recommended because of lengthy rehearsal times with high sound-level exposure during rehearsals.

Assessing Regional and Interspecific Variation in Threshold Responses of Forest Breeding Birds through Broad Scale Analyses

BackgroundIdentifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45–87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82–91.02% for extinction dynamics.Conclusions/SignificanceThrough an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that threshold values cannot simply be transferred across regions or interpreted as clear-cut targets for ecosystem management and conservation.

Elephant response to spatial heterogeneity in a savanna landscape of northern Tanzania

Landscape heterogeneity, namely the variation of a landscape property across space and time, can influence the distribution of a species and its abundance. Quantifying landscape heterogeneity is important for the management of semi‐natural areas through predicting species response to landscape changes, such as habitat fragmentation. In this paper, we tested whether the change in spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation cover due to farming expansion affected the distribution of the African elephant in the Tarangire‐Manyara ecosystem, northern Tanzania. Spatial heterogeneity (based on the normalized difference vegetation index) was characterized at multiple spatial scales using the wavelet transform and the intensity‐dominant scale method. Elephant distribution was estimated from time‐series aerial surveys using a kernel density function. The intensity, which relates to the contrast in vegetation cover, quantified the maximum variation in NDVI across multiple spatial scales, whereas the dominant scale, which represents the scale at which this maximum variation occurs, identified the dominant inter‐patches distance, i.e. the size of dominant landscape features. We related the dominant scale of spatial heterogeneity to the probability of elephant occurrence in order to identify: 1) the scale that maximizes elephant occurrence, and 2) its change between 1988 and 2001. Neither the dominant scale and intensity of spatial heterogeneity, nor the probability of the elephant occurrence changed significantly between 1988 and 2001. The spatial scale maximizing elephant occurrence remained constant at 7000 to 8000 m during each wet season. Compared to the findings of a recent, similar study in Zimbabwe, our results suggest that the change in the dominant scale was relatively small in Tarangire‐Manyara ecosystem and well within the critical threshold for elephant persistence. The method is a useful tool for monitoring ecosystems and their properties.

Maximum stream temperature and the occurrence, abundance, and behavior of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in a southern California stream

To determine individual and population responses of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to stream temperature, we sampled summer stream temperature and juvenile steelhead occurrence, abundance, and behavior in a small stream near the species' southern limit. Maximum annual stream temperature (22.3–33.1 °C) exerted a strong threshold effect on steelhead occurrence. Steelhead persisted through summer in all pools that did not exceed 30 °C, but the probability of persistence rapidly decreased to zero at warmer sites. Below the threshold for fish persistence, thermal effects on steelhead abundance were inconsistent, with temperature receiving strong support for inclusion in models of fish abundance at the beginning of summer but weak support for inclusion in models of end-of-summer abundance and summer fish loss. Thermal refugia that would allow steelhead to behaviorally thermoregulate were rare. In response to elevated stream temperatures, steelhead reduced foraging and agonistic activity, presumably to minimize energetic costs. In anticipation of the effects of global climate trends on stream temperature, management actions that limit or reduce stream heating will be critical for conservation of steelhead populations in habitats approaching thermal tolerance thresholds.

Stability and bifurcation of epidemic spreading on adaptive network

Adaptive network is characterized by feedback loop between states of nodes and topology of the network. In this paper, for adaptive epidemic spreading model, epidemic spreading dynamics is studied by using a nonlinear differential dynamic system. The local stability and bifurcation behavior of the equilibrium in this network model are investigated and all kinds of bifurcation point formula are obtained by analyzing its corresponding characteristic equation of Jacobian matrix of the nonlinear system. It is shown that, when the epidemic threshold is less than epidemic persistence threshold R00c, the disease always dies out and the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically locally stable. If R0c01, a backward bifurcation leading to bistability possibly occurs, and there are possibly three equilibria: a stable disease-free equilibrium, a larger stable endemic equilibrium, and a smaller unstable endemic equilibrium. If R01, the disease is uniformly persistent and only one endemic equilibrium is asymptotically locally stable. It is also found that the system has saddle-node bifurcation, transcritical bifurcation, and Hopf bifurcation. Numerical simulations are given to verify the results of theoretical analysis.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future.

An Epidemiological Framework for Modelling Fungicide Dynamics and Control

Defining appropriate policies for controlling the spread of fungal disease in agricultural landscapes requires appropriate theoretical models. Most existing models for the fungicidal control of plant diseases do not explicitly include the dynamics of the fungicide itself, nor do they consider the impact of infection occurring during the host growth phase. We introduce a modelling framework for fungicide application that allows us to consider how “explicit” modelling of fungicide dynamics affects the invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. Specifically, we show that “explicit” models exhibit bistability zones for values of the basic reproductive number () less than one within which the invasion and persistence threshold depends on the initial infection levels. This is in contrast to classical models where invasion and persistence thresholds are solely dependent on . In addition if initial infection occurs during the growth phase then an additional “invasion zone” can exist for even smaller values of . Within this region the system will experience an epidemic that is not able to persist. We further show that ideal fungicides with high levels of effectiveness, low rates of application and low rates of decay lead to the existence of these bistability zones. The results are robust to the inclusion of demographic stochasticity.

Persistence Probabilities for Stream Populations

Individuals in streams and rivers are constantly at risk of being washed downstream and thereby lost to their population. The possibility of diffusion-mediated persistence of populations in advective environments has been the focus of a multitude of recent modeling efforts. Most of these recent models are deterministic, and they predict the existence of a critical advection velocity, above which a population cannot persist. In this work, we present a stochastic approach to the persistence problem in streams and rivers. We use the dominant eigenvalue of the advection-diffusion operator to transition from a spatially explicit description to a spatially implicit birth-death process, in which individual washout from the domain appears as an additional death term. We find that the deterministic persistence threshold is replaced by a smooth transition from almost sure persistence to extinction as advection velocity increases. More interestingly, we explore how temporal variation in flow rate and other parameters affect the persistence probability. In line with general expectations, we find that temporal variation often decreases the persistence probability, and we focus on a few examples of how variation can increase population persistence.