Three-dimensional Atmospheric Model Research Articles

A quasi-Hamiltonian discretization of the thermal shallow water equations

The rotating shallow water (RSW) equations are the usual testbed for the development of numerical methods for three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic models. However, an arguably more useful set of equations are the thermal shallow water equations (TSW), which introduce an additional thermodynamic scalar but retain the single layer, two-dimensional structure of the RSW. As a stepping stone towards a three-dimensional atmospheric dynamical core, this work presents a quasi-Hamiltonian discretization of the thermal shallow water equations using compatible Galerkin methods, building on previous work done for the shallow water equations. Structure-preserving or quasi-Hamiltonian discretizations methods, that discretize the Hamiltonian structure of the equations of motion rather than the equations of motion themselves, have proven to be a powerful tool for the development of models with discrete conservation properties. By combining these ideas with an energy-conserving Poisson time integrator and a careful choice of Galerkin spaces, a large set of desirable properties can be achieved. In particular, for the first time total mass, buoyancy and energy are conserved to machine precision in the fully discrete model.

Simulating global horizontal irradiance in the Arabian Peninsula: Sensitivity to explicit treatment of aerosols

Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is simulated using a three-dimensional atmospheric meteorology-chemistry model and a triple-nesting configuration over the Middle East with a focus on the hot desert climate of Qatar. The model performance was assessed with measurement data of solar radiation from a ground monitoring station in Doha (Qatar) collected over a three-month period, of representative and distinct meteorological regimes. We have examined the ability of the model to reproduce GHI values under two different shortwave downward radiation parameterizations, and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the presence of aerosols. The introduction of an advanced treatment of aerosols greatly improves the model performance in predicting GHI. Explicitly including aerosol processes and its emissions in the model significantly reduces the relative root mean square error for GHI from 25% to 13% in May and from 20% to 12% in August. A significant improvement of the systematic bias was achieved (from up to 30% to approximately 2%) when aerosols are fully considered during all three seasons. The RRTM (Rapid Radiative Transfer Model) shortwave radiation scheme performs somewhat better than the Goddard scheme both with and without aerosols. This work suggests that GHI predictions in regions that experience high aerosol loadings can benefit significantly from a detailed and explicit treatment of aerosols and their physicochemical processes. This offers a novel approach to better manage the fluctuating nature of solar radiation originating from variable weather and air pollution conditions.

Modeling the Effects of Inhomogeneous Aerosols on the Hot Jupiter Kepler-7b’s Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract Motivated by observational evidence of inhomogeneous clouds in exoplanetary atmospheres, we investigate how proposed simple cloud distributions can affect atmospheric circulations and infrared emission. We simulated temperatures and winds for the hot Jupiter Kepler-7b using a three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model that included a simplified aerosol radiative transfer model. We prescribed fixed cloud distributions and scattering properties based on results previously inferred from Kepler-7b optical phase curves, including inhomogeneous aerosols centered along the western terminator and hypothetical cases in which aerosols additionally extended across much of the planet’s nightside. In all cases, a strong jet capable of advecting aerosols from a cooler nightside to dayside was found to persist, but only at the equator. Colder temperatures at mid and polar latitudes might permit aerosol to form on the dayside without the need for advection. By altering the deposition and redistribution of heat, aerosols along the western terminator produced an asymmetric heating that effectively shifts the hottest spot further east of the substellar point than expected for a uniform distribution. The addition of opaque high clouds on the nightside can partly mitigate this enhanced shift by retaining heat that contributes to warming west of the hotspot. These expected differences in infrared phase curves could place constraints on proposed cloud distributions and their infrared opacities for brighter hot Jupiters.

Models of Warm Jupiter Atmospheres: Observable Signatures of Obliquity

Abstract We present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models of a hypothetical “warm Jupiter” planet, for a range of possible obliquities from 0° to 90°. We model a Jupiter-mass planet on a 10 day orbit around a Sun-like star, since this hypothetical planet sits at the boundary between planets for which we expect that tidal forces should have aligned their rotation axes with their orbital axes (i.e., ones with zero obliquity) and planets whose timescale for tidal alignment is longer than the typical age of an exoplanet system. In line with observational progress, which is pushing atmospheric characterization for planets on longer orbital periods, we calculate the observable signatures of obliquity for a transiting warm Jupiter: in orbital phase curves of thermal emission and in the hemispheric flux gradients that could be measured by eclipse mapping. For both of these predicted measurements, the signal that we would see depends strongly on our viewing geometry relative to the orientation of the planet’s rotation axis, and we thoroughly identify the degeneracies that result. We compare these signals to the predicted sensitivities of current and future instruments and determine that the James Webb Space Telescope should be able to constrain the obliquities of nearby warm Jupiters to be small (if ) or to directly measure them if significantly non-zero ( ) using the technique of eclipse mapping. For a bright target and assuming photon-limited precision, this could be done with a single secondary eclipse observation.

Treatment of overlapping gaseous absorption with the correlated-kmethod in hot Jupiter and brown dwarf atmosphere models

The correlated-k method is frequently used to speed up radiation calculations in both one-dimensional and three-dimensional atmosphere models. An inherent difficulty with this method is how to treat overlapping absorption, i.e. absorption by more than one gas in a given spectral region. We have evaluated the applicability of three different methods in hot Jupiter and brown dwarf atmosphere models, all of which have been previously applied within models in the literature: (i) Random overlap, both with and without resorting and rebinning, (ii) equivalent extinction and (iii) pre-mixing of opacities, where (i) and (ii) combine k-coefficients for different gases to obtain k-coefficients for a mixture of gases, while (iii) calculates k-coefficients for a given mixture from the corresponding mixed line-by-line opacities. We find that the random overlap method is the most accurate and flexible of these treatments, and is fast enough to be used in one-dimensional models with resorting and rebinning. In three-dimensional models such as GCMs it is too slow, however, and equivalent extinction can provide a speed-up of at least a factor of three with only a minor loss of accuracy while at the same time retaining the flexibility gained by combining k-coefficients computed for each gas individually. Pre-mixed opacities are significantly less flexible, and we also find that particular care must be taken when using this method in order to to adequately resolve steep variations in composition at important chemical equilibrium boundaries. We use the random overlap method with resorting and rebinning in our one-dimensional atmosphere model and equivalent extinction in our GCM, which allows us to e.g. consistently treat the feedback of non-equilibrium chemistry on the total opacity and therefore the calculated P-T profiles in our models.

Ice–Atmosphere Feedbacks Dominate the Response of the Climate System to Drake Passage Closure

AbstractThe response of the global climate system to Drake Passage (DP) closure is examined using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice model. Unlike most previous studies, a full three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model is included with a complete hydrological cycle and a freely evolving wind field, as well as a coupled dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice module. Upon DP closure the initial response is found to be consistent with previous ocean-only and intermediate-complexity climate model studies, with an expansion and invigoration of the Antarctic meridional overturning, along with a slowdown in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production. This results in a dominance of Southern Ocean poleward geostrophic flow and Antarctic sinking when DP is closed. However, within just a decade of DP closure, the increased southward heat transport has melted back a substantial fraction of Antarctic sea ice. At the same time the polar oceans warm by 4°–6°C on the zonal mean, and the maximum strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies weakens by ≃10%. These effects, not captured in models without ice and atmosphere feedbacks, combine to force Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to warm and freshen, to the point that this water mass becomes less dense than NADW. This leads to a marked contraction of the Antarctic overturning, allowing NADW to ventilate the abyssal ocean once more. Poleward heat transport settles back to very similar values as seen in the unperturbed DP open case. Yet remarkably, the equilibrium climate in the closed DP configuration retains a strong Southern Hemisphere warming, similar to past studies with no dynamic atmosphere. However, here it is ocean–atmosphere–ice feedbacks, primarily the ice-albedo feedback and partly the weakened midlatitude jet, not a vigorous southern sinking, which maintain the warm polar oceans. This demonstrates that DP closure can drive a hemisphere-scale warming with polar amplification, without the presence of any vigorous Southern Hemisphere overturning circulation. Indeed, DP closure leads to warming that is sufficient over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to inhibit ice-sheet growth. This highlights the importance of the DP gap, Antarctic sea ice, and the associated ice-albedo feedback in maintaining the present-day glacial state over Antarctica.

3.6 AND 4.5 μm SPITZER PHASE CURVES OF THE HIGHLY IRRADIATED HOT JUPITERS WASP-19b AND HAT-P-7b

ABSTRACT We analyze full-orbit phase curve observations of the transiting hot Jupiters WASP-19b and HAT-P-7b at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, obtained using the Spitzer Space Telescope. For WASP-19b, we measure secondary eclipse depths of and at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, which are consistent with a single blackbody with effective temperature 2372 ± 60 K. The measured 3.6 and 4.5 μm secondary eclipse depths for HAT-P-7b are and , which are well described by a single blackbody with effective temperature 2667 ± 57 K. Comparing the phase curves to the predictions of one-dimensional and three-dimensional atmospheric models, we find that WASP-19b’s dayside emission is consistent with a model atmosphere with no dayside thermal inversion and moderately efficient day–night circulation. We also detect an eastward-shifted hotspot, which suggests the presence of a superrotating equatorial jet. In contrast, HAT-P-7b’s dayside emission suggests a dayside thermal inversion and relatively inefficient day–night circulation; no hotspot shift is detected. For both planets, these same models do not agree with the measured nightside emission. The discrepancies in the model-data comparisons for WASP-19b might be explained by high-altitude silicate clouds on the nightside and/or high atmospheric metallicity, while the very low 3.6 μm nightside planetary brightness for HAT-P-7b may be indicative of an enhanced global C/O ratio. We compute Bond albedos of 0.38 ± 0.06 and 0 ( at ) for WASP-19b and HAT-P-7b, respectively. In the context of other planets with thermal phase curve measurements, we show that WASP-19b and HAT-P-7b fit the general trend of decreasing day–night heat recirculation with increasing irradiation.

EFFECTS OF OBLIQUITY ON THE HABITABILITY OF EXOPLANETS AROUND M DWARFS

ABSTRACT Most previous studies on how obliquity affects planetary habitability focused on planets around Sun-like stars. Their conclusions may not be applicable to habitable planets around M dwarfs due to the tidal-locking feature and associated insolation pattern of these planets. Here we use a comprehensive three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model to investigate this issue. We find that the climates of planets with higher obliquities are generally warmer, consistent with previous studies. The mechanism of warming is, however, completely different. Significant reduction of low clouds, instead of sea-ice cover, within the substeller region (which moves if the obliquity is non-zero) is the key in warming M-dwarf planets with high obliquities. For a total insolation of 1237 W m−2, the climate warms by 21 K when the obliquity increases from 0° to 90°. Correspondingly, the runaway greenhouse inner edge of the habitable zone shifts outward from 2500 to 2100 W m−2. The moist greenhouse inner edge, based on our crude estimation, shifts less, from 2180 to 2075 W m−2. Near the outer edge, in contrast, the climates of planets with higher obliquities are colder due to their reduced ability to maintain a hotspot at the surface. Therefore, the outer edge moves inward when obliquity is increased, opposite to the finding of previous studies on planets around Sun-like stars. Our results thus indicate that the habitable zone for M dwarfs narrows if the obliquity of their planets increases.

Sources of nitrogen deposition in Federal Class I areas in the US

Abstract. It is desired to control excessive reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition due to its detrimental impact on ecosystems. Using a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, Nr deposition in the contiguous US and eight selected Class I areas (Voyageurs (VY), Smoky Mountain (SM), Shenandoah (SD), Big Bend (BB), Rocky Mountain (RM), Grand Teton (GT), Joshua Tree (JT), and Sequoia (SQ)) is investigated. First, modeled Nr deposition is compared with National Trends Network (NTN) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) deposition values. The seasonality of measured species is generally well represented by the model (R2 > 0.6), except in JT. While modeled Nr is generally within the range of seasonal observations, large overestimates are present in sites such as SM and SD in the spring and summer (up to 0.6 kg N ha month−1), likely owing to model high-biases in surface HNO3. The contribution of non-measured species (mostly dry deposition of NH3) to total modeled Nr deposition ranges from 1 to 55 %. The spatial distribution of the origin of Nr deposited in each Class I area and the contributions of individual emission sectors are estimated using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model. We find the largest role of long-range transport for VY, where 50 % (90 %) of annual Nr deposition originates within 670 (1670) km of the park. In contrast, the Nr emission footprint is most localized for SQ, where 50 % (90 %) of the deposition originates from within 130 (370) km. Emissions from California contribute to the Nr deposition in remote areas in the western US (RM, GT). Mobile NOx and livestock NH3 are found to be the major sources of Nr deposition in all sites except BB, where contributions of NOx from lightning and soils to natural levels of Nr deposition are significant (∼ 40 %). The efficiency in terms of Nr deposition per kg emissions of NH3-N, NOx-N, and SO2-S are also estimated. Unique seasonal features are found in JT (opposing efficiency distributions for winter and summer), RM (large fluctuations in the range of effective regions), and SD (upwind NH3 emissions hindering Nr deposition). We also evaluate the contributions of emissions to the total area of Class I regions in critical load exceedance, and to the total magnitude of exceedance. We find that while it is effective to control emissions in the western US to reduce the area of regions in CL exceedance, it can be more effective to control emissions in the eastern US to reduce the magnitude of Nr deposition above the CL. Finally, uncertainty in the nitrogen deposition caused by uncertainty in the NH3 emission inventory is explored by comparing results based on two different NH3 inventories; noticeable differences in the emission inventories and thus sensitivities of up to a factor of four found in individual locations.

Ship-based observations of atmospheric potential oxygen and regional air–sea O2 flux in the northern North Pacific and the Arctic Ocean

Simultaneous observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO=O2+1.1×CO2) and air–sea O2 flux, derived from dissolved oxygen in surface seawater, were carried out onboard the research vessel MIRAI in the northern North Pacific and the Arctic Ocean in the autumns of 2012–2014. A simulation of the APO was also carried out using a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model that incorporated a monthly air–sea O2 flux climatology. By comparing the observed and simulated APO, as well as the observed and climatological air–sea O2 fluxes, it was found that the large day-to-day variation in the observed APO can be attributed to the day-to-day variation in the local air–sea O2 fluxes around the observation sites. It was also found that the average value of the observed air–sea O2 fluxes was systematically higher than that of the climatological O2 flux. This could explain the discrepancy between the observed and simulated seasonal APO cycles widely seen at various northern hemispheric observational sites in the fall season.

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF ECCENTRIC HOT JUPITER HAT-P-2B

The hot-Jupiter HAT-P-2b has become a prime target for Spitzer Space Telescope observations aimed at understanding the atmospheric response of exoplanets on highly eccentric orbits. Here we present a suite of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models for HAT-P-2b that investigate the effects of assumed atmospheric composition and rotation rate on global scale winds and thermal patterns. We compare and contrast atmospheric models for HAT-P-2b, which assume one and five times solar metallicity, both with and without TiO/VO as atmospheric constituents. Additionally we compare models that assume a rotation period of half, one, and two times the nominal pseudo-synchronous rotation period. We find that changes in assumed atmospheric metallicity and rotation rate do not significantly affect model predictions of the planetary flux as a function of orbital phase. However, models in which TiO/VO are present in the atmosphere develop a transient temperature inversion between the transit and secondary eclipse events that results in significant variations in the timing and magnitude of the peak of the planetary flux compared with models in which TiO/VO are omitted from the opacity tables. We find that no one single atmospheric model can reproduce the recently observed full orbit phase curves at 3.6, 4.5 and 8.0 microns, which is likely due to a chemical process not captured by our current atmospheric models for HAT-P-2b. Further modeling and observational efforts focused on understanding the chemistry of HAT-P-2b's atmosphere are needed and could provide key insights into the interplay between radiative, dynamical, and chemical processes in a wide range of exoplanet atmospheres.

Insight into the numerical challenges of implementing 2-dimensional SOA models in atmospheric chemical transport models

The new generation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) models that represent gas- and particle-phase chemistry and thermodynamic partitioning using discrete two-dimensional grids (e.g. SOM, 2D-VBS) cannot be efficiently implemented into three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs) due to the large number of bins (tracers) required. In this study, we introduce a novel mathematical framework, termed the Oxidation State/Volatility Moment Method, that is designed to address these computational burdens so as to allow the new generation of SOA models to be implemented into CTMs. This is accomplished by mapping the two-dimensional grids onto probability distributions that conserve carbon and oxygen mass. Assessment of the Moment Method strengths (speed, carbon and oxygen conservation) and weaknesses (numerical drift) provide valuable insight that can guide future development of SOA modules for atmospheric CTMs.

THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF THE SUPER EARTH GJ 1214b: DEPENDENCE ON COMPOSITION AND METALLICITY

We present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models of GJ 1214b, a 2.7 Earth-radius, 6.5 Earth-mass super Earth detected by the MEarth survey. Here we explore the planet's circulation as a function of atmospheric metallicity and atmospheric composition, modeling atmospheres with a low mean-molecular weight (i.e., H2-dominated) and a high mean-molecular weight (i.e. water- and CO2-dominated). We find that atmospheres with a low mean-molecular weight have strong day-night temperature variations at pressures above the infrared photosphere that lead to equatorial superrotation. For these atmospheres, the enhancement of atmospheric opacities with increasing metallicity lead to shallower atmospheric heating, larger day-night temperature variations and hence stronger superrotation. In comparison, atmospheres with a high mean-molecular weight have larger day-night and equator-to-pole temperature variations than low mean-molecular weight atmospheres, but differences in opacity structure and energy budget lead to differences in jet structure. The circulation of a water-dominated atmosphere is dominated by equatorial superrotation, while the circulation of a CO2-dominated atmosphere is instead dominated by high-latitude jets. By comparing emergent flux spectra and lightcurves for 50x solar and water-dominated compositions, we show that observations in emission can break the degeneracy in determining the atmospheric composition of GJ 1214b. The variation in opacity with wavelength for the water-dominated atmosphere leads to large phase variations within water bands and small phase variations outside of water bands. The 50x solar atmosphere, however, yields small variations within water bands and large phase variations at other characteristic wavelengths. These observations would be much less sensitive to clouds, condensates, and hazes than transit observations.

A LOW-ORDER MODEL OF WATER VAPOR, CLOUDS, AND THERMAL EMISSION FOR TIDALLY LOCKED TERRESTRIAL PLANETS

In the spirit of minimal modeling of complex systems, we develop an idealized two-column model to investigate the climate of tidally locked terrestrial planets with Earth-like atmospheres in the habitable zone of M-dwarf stars. The model is able to approximate the fundamental features of the climate obtained from three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) simulations. One important reason for the two-column model's success is that it reproduces the high cloud albedo of the GCM simulations, which reduces the planet's temperature and delays the onset of a runaway greenhouse state. The two-column model also clearly illustrates a secondary mechanism for determining the climate: the nightside acts as a ``radiator fin'' through which infrared energy can be lost to space easily. This radiator fin is maintained by a temperature inversion and dry air on the nightside, and plays a similar role to the subtropics on modern Earth. Since 1D radiative-convective models cannot capture the effects of the cloud albedo and radiator fin, they are systematically biased towards a narrower habitable zone. We also show that cloud parameters are most important for determining the day--night thermal emission contrast in the two-column model, which decreases and eventually reverses as the stellar flux increases. This reversal is important because it could be detected by future extrasolar planet characterization missions, which would suggest that the planet has Earth-like water clouds and is potentially habitable.

The Third GABLS Intercomparison Case for Evaluation Studies of Boundary-Layer Models. Part A: Case Selection and Set-Up

We describe a novel methodology on the selection and composition of a single-case observational dataset from the comprehensive measurement program at the Cabauw observatory field site located in the Netherlands. The case can be regarded as the basis of the third case study conducted within the framework of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchange) Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Study (GABLS) and is meant to be used for the evaluation of single-column models. The ideal case is supposed to cover a period of at least 24 h with clear skies, moderate near-surface winds and a stable stratification during nighttime. From the multi-year data archive with Cabauw observations data for 1–2 July 2006 were found to best match the requirements, and were consequently selected for analysis. The dates contains a 24-h period with a nearly constant geostrophic wind of $$\approx $$ 7 m $$\hbox {s}^{-1}$$ , and a considerable wind shear in the vertical. It is also characterized by a pronounced low-level jet related to an inertial oscillation that developed around sunset when the atmosphere had decoupled from the surface. Detailed initial conditions, surface conditions and dynamical forcings are derived on the basis of local observations and the outcome of a conceptual and a three-dimensional atmospheric model. It appears that a very precise prescription of the forcings is a prerequisite to enable a meaningful evaluation of models against observational data.

Effect of topography on sulfate redistribution in cumulonimbus cloud development

An aqueous chemical module is created and included into a complex three-dimensional atmospheric cloud-resolving mesoscale model. In the chemical module, oxidation of S(IV) by ozone and hydrogen peroxide in cloud-water and rainwater, as important process of the sulfate production is included. To examine the impact of topography on the sulfate redistribution in a clean and a polluted environment, the complex topography of Serbia is included in the model. Numerical simulations of an isolated summer Cumulonimbus cloud shows that thunderstorms generate very strong vertical sulfate redistribution from the planetary boundary layer to the upper troposphere. This redistribution is sensitive to cloud dynamics, while cloud microphysics and precipitation determine wet removal of the chemical species. In simulations with realistic topography, the chemical species are transported over larger distances close to the surface, while in the upper atmosphere, there is no difference compared to the simulations without topography. The sensitivity tests of cloud chemistry to the physical processes are made. Omission of nucleation and impact scavenging of aerosols in the model simulations shows that 75.8 and 62.5 % of total sulfur mass deposited in the base experiment for the clean and the polluted environment, respectively, is the result of other processes. Exclusion of oxidation accounted for 19.2 and 37.7 % of total sulfur deposited for clean and polluted environment. Ignoring the ice phase almost not change mass of deposited sulfur: there is an increase of 2.9 and 1.5 % for clean and polluted atmosphere, respectively. Real topography conditions affect the sulfate redistribution in the sense of greater possibilities of transport. Numerical simulations without real topography give an artificial increase of deposited sulfur mass of about 25-30 %.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Differences in the variability of measured and simulated tropospheric ozone mixing ratios over the Paso del Norte Region

The objective of this study is to present differences in the variability of observed and ozone-mixing ratios simulated by a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical model using two chemical mechanisms. In this study the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions is used to make ozone simulations with the Carbon Bond mechanism, versions 4 and 5. The Paso del Norte region is used as a test-bed for these simulations. The shared variance between the simulations and measurements is typical for air quality models ranging from 0.51 to 0.86 for both mechanisms. The smallest mean normalized gross error is about 31 % with CB4 but the normalized bias is over 30 % as well. Boundary conditions, emissions and other factors affect the levels of ozone of the simulated mixing ratios and therefore error and bias but these factors have a much less affect on the simulated ozone variability. The differences in the ozone variability of the measurements and the simulations are very large and different for the two chemical mechanisms. There are many more instances of low ozone mixing ratios in the measurements than in the simulated ozone. One possible explanation is that these differences are due to problems associated with comparing point measurements with grid averages. A more disturbing possibility is that the bias could be due to the procedures used in the development and testing of air quality modeling systems. Air quality mechanisms are evaluated against environmental chamber data where the chemistry occurs at high concentrations and this may lead to a systematic positive bias in ozone simulations.

Influence of Land Cover Change on Regional Water Cycles in Eastern Siberia

AbstractThis study evaluated the effect of recent eastern Siberian land surface changes, such as water surface expansion, on water-energy fluxes and precipitation and focused on land surface parameters using a three-dimensional atmospheric model [the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM)]. Five parameters were set (viz., surface albedo, evaporative efficiency, roughness length, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity), and a response of evaporation and precipitation was evaluated. Increased precipitation corresponded to 75% of the increased evaporation on interparameter average, indicating strong land–atmosphere coupling. Water-energy flux and precipitation responses to water surface expansion were evaluated by two methods: JMA-NHM and the parameter sensitivity method. The latter method used a linear combination of parameter sensitivity on the fluxes and precipitation and parameter changes with land surface change. JMA-NHM demonstrated an increase in evaporation and precipitation and a decrease in downward shortwave radiation with low-level cloud increases. The parameter sensitivity method gave the same order as JMA-NHM in the estimation. This method has minimal calculation cost; thus, water-energy flux and precipitation response with further water surface expansion and decreases in forest area were simulated, producing various land surface data. The enhancement of the precipitation response to evaporation was weak for further water surface expansion in the largely expanded water surface area; however, the ratio increased dramatically for the small water surface expanding area, indicating intense water cycle enhancement at the beginning of water surface expansion. Although grassland formation from forest has minimal impact, if incoming downward shortwave radiation were to increase because of the disappearance of the forest shading effect and the water surface formed by permafrost melting, the water cycle would be enhanced intensely.

Numerical study of the thermal effects of buildings on low-speed airflow taking into account 3D atmospheric radiation in urban canopy

A three-dimensional atmospheric radiative model which evaluates the thermal-radiative transfers in the lower atmosphere was implemented in the atmospheric module of a Computational Fluid Dynamics code. This model can study the thermal effects of buildings on the local atmospheric flow with a coupled dynamic-radiative model. Previously, we have validated this approach and discussed the impact of the convective flux on the surface temperatures by comparing a detailed wind and temperature field with the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) experiment dataset. In this paper our objective is to demonstrate the ability of our radiative model to simulate the thermal effect of buildings on the local atmospheric flow under low wind speed condition. Therefore, we present different numerical simulations for low wind speed and higher building density than in MUST, comparing the neutral case with different levels of thermal exchange model and analyzing the differences. The results show first that taking into account the thermal stratification has a significant influence on the wind field. Then we show that the difference between the case for which we impose the temperatures and the case with temperatures calculated with a 3D radiative transfer scheme can also be important near the buildings. In addition, with the 3D radiative model, the temperature and vertical motion show an important sensitivity to changes in the physical parameters of the wall surfaces, such as the surface albedo.