Threat Reduction Research Articles

Infrasound propagation with realistic terrain and atmospheres using a finite-difference time-domain method

Numerous infrasound observations and complementary numerical simulations have shown that infrasound propagation is strongly influenced by terrain within approximately 10 km from the source. Recent computational efforts using ray theory have shown that terrain influence extends over hundreds of km and is especially strong for waves ducted in the troposphere. Wind and temperature gradients also have a strong influence on propagation at these distances, which suggests that both terrain and atmospheric structure need to be accounted for in waveform modeling at a wide range of distances. Here we show preliminary results from numerical simulations of linear acoustic propagationthrough a moving, inhomogeneous atmosphere using a finite-difference time domain propagation code. We compare our synthetic waveforms in two and three dimensions with existing community infrasound propagation codes and discuss future developments, including open source licensing. Finally, we present preliminary comparisons between modeling and observations from a large-scale explosion at the Utah Testing and Training Range. This scenario highlights the importance of using full-wave modeling compared to ray methods to explain the observed waveforms. [Work funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Cleared for release.]

Managing the disabling environment in the South African Secondary Schooling to Promote Safety and Security

The objective of this paper is to critique lack of safety and security in public secondary schools. The paper is both conceptual and empirical in nature within the qualitative research paradigm. The question guiding this paper is: what shall it take to have public secondary school learners stopping to compromise the safety and security measures in their institutions? Interviewing technique and documents review, were employed to generate data. Out of the population of 17 secondary schools in one of the circuits in Vhembe district, in Limpopo Province, South Africa, three were conveniently sampled. Those were the secondary schools that had safety and security lapses that resulted in disabling or unpleasant schooling environment in their institutions. In each of the three sampled secondary school, a School Principal, a School Governing Body Chairperson and a Chairperson for the Representative Council of Learners became research participants. The total number of research participants amounted to nine. Findings revealed that firstly, secondary schools need to create school safety and security officers. Secondly, secondary schools need to embrace a restorative approach to safety and security. Thirdly, secondary schools need to emphasise reduction and eradication of safety and security threats. Fourthly, secondary schools need to regularly conduct safety and security audits. Fifthly, secondary schools need to avoid learner maltreatment and harassment. Lastly, secondary schools need to perfect their safety and security reporting systems. The researcher recommends for the public secondary schooling environments to be free from fear, intimidation and victimisation. This implies secondary schooling needs to prioritise the achievement of safer and secured schooling environment for the sustainable performance of learners.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STATE STRATEGY OF COMMUNICATION WITH REALIZATION OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION APPROACHES

The article examines the aspects of the conceptual model of state communication strategy (SCS), which implements the approaches of European integration. Tasks to be solved by SCS are established. They include, in particular, a decrease in the lack of information in society, the lack of communication between communities and each citizen, ignorance of the direction of current political processes, and a decrease in the level of social tension. The main goal of the conceptual model of this strategy was formulated. This is the unity of society on the way to overcoming threats, reducing society's level of public anxiety, fear of taking responsibility for actions, for the protection of the country and public good, and to use all the mechanisms and tools provided by European integration. The importance of the formation of reliable feedback and the introduction of a self-regulatory process is indicated. Defects in the communication process have been identified, and SCS must be directed to correct them. A structural diagram of a conceptual model of the implementation of SCS with the realization of EU approaches was developed using a system approach. The developed scheme should become a methodical basis for the construction of SCS, which implements the approaches and basic principles of European integration under the conditions of discrediting the work of the aggressor. It is indicated that the conceptual model should take into account the need for external communication. For this purpose, it is necessary to improve the contractual basis between Ukraine and the EU in the sphere of security policy. The main paradigm of external communication which consists of the need to form a synergy of all public strata in the formation of information influence on the outside world for the implementation of cooperation policy and reduction of common threats has been revealed. The creation of a synergistic effect should be the result of SCS implementation.

SWIFT Clouds Between International Legal Storms? Bank Melli, the CJEU and Secondary Sanctions

This case comment offers a new perspective on the Bank Melli decision of the CJEU by integrating the missing discussions on SWIFT. This is a crucial element that was merely referred to in the Opinion of the Advocate General as oppose to full ruling by the CJEU. A crucial part of the comment is the role of the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (US) and how it enfolden SWIFT and therefore the implications in other legislations that are used to apply secondary sanctions. The comment also use material from the US Treasury to add context in terms of the Bank Melli decision and how international law underperforms when financial sanctions touches and concerns the United States. Bank Melli, SWIFT, Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act 2012, Financial Sanctions, Financial Messaging

Preclinical immunogenicity and efficacy of a candidate COVID-19 vaccine based on a vesicular stomatitis virus-SARS-CoV-2 chimera

SummaryBackgroundTo investigate a vaccine technology with potential to protect against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with a single vaccine dose, we developed a SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccine using the live vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) chimeric virus approach previously used to develop a licensed Ebola virus vaccine.MethodsWe generated a replication-competent chimeric VSV-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate by replacing the VSV glycoprotein (G) gene with coding sequence for the SARS-CoV-2 Spike glycoprotein (S). Immunogenicity of the lead vaccine candidate (VSV∆G-SARS-CoV-2) was evaluated in cotton rats and golden Syrian hamsters, and protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection also was assessed in hamsters.FindingsVSV∆G-SARS-CoV-2 delivered with a single intramuscular (IM) injection was immunogenic in cotton rats and hamsters and protected hamsters from weight loss following SARS-CoV-2 challenge. When mucosal vaccination was evaluated, cotton rats did not respond to the vaccine, whereas mucosal administration of VSV∆G-SARS-CoV-2 was found to be more immunogenic than IM injection in hamsters and induced immunity that significantly reduced SARS-CoV-2 challenge virus loads in both lung and nasal tissues.InterpretationVSV∆G-SARS-CoV-2 delivered by IM injection or mucosal administration was immunogenic in golden Syrian hamsters, and both vaccination methods effectively protected the lung from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hamsters vaccinated by mucosal application of VSV∆G-SARS-CoV-2 also developed immunity that controlled SARS-CoV-2 replication in nasal tissue.FundingThe study was funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme, Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA, and The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, Inc. (IAVI), New York, USA. Parts of this research was supported by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) of the US Department of Defense.

The scope and extent of literature that maps threats to species globally: a systematic map

BackgroundHuman activities are driving accelerating rates of species extinctions that continue to threaten nature’s contribution to people. Yet, the full scope of where and how human activities threaten wild species worldwide remains unclear. Furthermore, the large diversity of approaches and terminology surrounding threats and threat mapping presents a barrier to understanding the state of knowledge and uptake into decision-making. Here, we define ‘threats’ as human activities and direct human-initiated processes, specifically where they co-occur with, and impact the survival of, wild species. Our objectives were to systematically consolidate the threat mapping literature, describe the distribution of available evidence, and produce a publicly available and searchable database of articles for easy uptake of evidence into future decision-making.MethodsFour bibliographic databases, one web-based search engine, and thirteen organisational websites were searched for peer-reviewed and grey-literature published in English 2000–2020. A three-stage screening process (title, abstract, and full-text) and coding was undertaken by two reviewers, with consistency tested on 20% of articles at each stage. Articles were coded according to 22 attributes that captured dimensions of the population, threat, and geographic location studied in addition to methodological attributes. The threats studied were classified according to the IUCN Red List threat classification scheme. A range of graphical formats were used to visualise the distribution of evidence according to these attributes and complement the searchable database of articles.Review findingsA total of 1069 relevant threat mapping studies were found and included in the systematic map, most conducted at a sub-national or local scale. Evidence was distributed unevenly among taxonomic groups, ecological realms, and geographies. Although articles were found for the full scope of threat categories used, most articles mapped a single threat. The most heavily mapped threats were alien invasive species, aquatic or terrestrial animal exploitation, roads and railways, residential development, and non-timber crop and livestock agriculture. Limitations regarding the English-only search and imperfect ability of the search to identify grey literature could have influenced the findings.ConclusionsThis systematic map represents a catalogue of threat mapping evidence at any spatial scale available for immediate use in threat reduction activities and policy decisions. The distribution of evidence has implications for devising actions to combat the threats specifically targeted in the post-2020 UN Biodiversity Framework, and for identifying other threats that may benefit from representation in global policy. It also highlights key gaps for further research to aid national and local-scale threat reduction. More knowledge would be particularly beneficial in the areas of managing multiple threats, land-based threats to marine systems, and threats to plant species and threats within the freshwater realm.

The science of mitigation: Closing the gap between potential and actual reduction of environmental threats

In the struggle to mitigate anthropogenic threats to environmental systems, science has made great progress identifying and quantifying the potential of various mitigation initiatives. It has made less progress in identifying and assessing how those initiatives will affect their targets and whether those initiatives can be adopted given the constraints of social, economic, and political systems. We present a framework for a science of mitigation that integrates understanding of mitigation potential with empirically based and context-specific knowledge from the social and behavioral sciences to address those gaps. The goal is to help change agents move beyond subjective judgment or broad theory toward a stronger basis for choosing and implementing mitigation strategies. This developing science incorporates knowledge about mitigation potential with knowledge about the plasticity of human responses to initiatives for change, feasibility of adopting and implementing such initiatives, and emerging principles for the effective design of initiatives. We place current and emerging lines of research within this framework and show how they can be developed to better inform practical mitigation choices, identify key research needs for this integrative science, and propose ways to support the needed efforts.

Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022

Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022

Forecasting the number of vehicle kilometers by applying the autoregression model, using Warsaw trams as an example

One of the biggest challenges of the 21st century is ecological responsibility. It also concerns the sustainable development of transport and the reduction of threats related to the negative impact of this phenomenon on the environment. A constant increase in transport congestion, atmospheric air pollution, and noise promotes the search for new solutions, especially in urban areas. One of the systematically implemented and improved ideas in this area is the development of urban transport systems. Their effectiveness and efficiency are evidenced by the level of meeting the transport needs of residents, with the optimal utilization of vehicles. The article analyses urban transport in Warsaw, focusing only on trams as the second most popular means of transport after wheeled vehicles. Two objectives of the study were adopted. The first was evaluating the current state and characteristics of the available options and indicating potential development directions, considering factors that determine it. The second goal was to select the appropriate model describing the number of vehicle kilometers accumulated by Warsaw trams in the years 2017-2019 and parametric identification of this model. The study allowed us to estimate and make a short-term forecast of transport services carried out by trams. The research has shown that the current situation regarding the performance of transport work by trams in Warsaw does not fit into the paradigm of sustainable transport development. This is due to the loss of vehicles from the records in the absence of new vehicle purchases. Additionally, the developed tool indicates a decrease in the number of vehicles-km performed in the following months and, thus, a reduction in the share of trams in transport in the Warsaw communication system. The identified problem (i.e., a downward trend in transport performance) is essential from the point of view of the quality of the system's operation and the ability to meet passengers' expectations. It also informs decision-makers about the need to implement changes leading to an increase in the share of tram transport, mainly in capacity and operating costs.

Changes in the structure of lipid A in glycosylated outer membrane vesicles (glycOMVs) suppress the activation of glycan-specific B1 cells in vivo

Abstract B1 cells differ from B2 cells in their developmental origin, phenotype, and function. They are anatomically located in various tissues of the immune system, and contribute to around 90% of the circulating antibodies in blood. B1 cells are often activated in a T-cell independent manner promoted by either antigens that contain a B-cell mitogen such as LPS, or by molecules that have highly repetitive structures such as bacterial capsular polysaccharides, with both pathways having the potential to undergo class-switch recombination and somatic hypermutation. Previously, we have shown that immunization with bacterial outer membrane vesicles engineered to display defined glycan structures on their surface (glycOMVs) promotes a strong glycan-specific IgG response for a wide range of bacterial and mammalian glycans. Here, we show that the structure of lipid A in these (glycOMVs) displaying the oncofetal antigen polysialic acid (polySia), influences the activation and class-switching of polySia-specific B1 cells from the spleen and peritoneal cavity in mice. We found that structural remodeling of lipid A from its normal hexa-acylated structure to a penta-acylated variant prevents the activation of polySia-specific B1 cells in the spleen and enhances the activation of polySia-specific B2 cells from the peritoneal cavity. Interestingly, we observed no changes in the glycan-specific IgG titers following immunization of wildtype B6 mice with either construct, even though there was no B cell activation in the spleen of mice receiving penta-acylated glycOMVs. However, these same glycOMVs failed to promote a glycan-specific IgG response in T-deficient mice, suggesting that this response was entirely T-cell dependent. This work was supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation grant OPP1217652 (to MPD), NSF grants CBET-1159581, CBET-1264701 and CBET-1936823 (to MPD), the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) grants HDTRA1-15-10052 and HDTRA1-20-10004 (to MPD), NIH grants 1R01GM137314 and 1R01GM127578 (to MPD) and the Fleming Scholars Fellowship (to NLB).

Mechanisms of Threat Control

Animal models of associative threat learning provide a basis for understanding human fears and anxiety. This talk will explore how the neural mechanisms of threat processing identified in animal models are consistent with human brain function and extend this research to the complex learning situations more typical of human experience. Building on research from animal models of associative threat learning, I will discuss a range of means maladaptive defensive responses can be diminished in humans. First, I will briefly outline how extinction and emotion regulation, techniques adapted in cognitive behavioral therapy, can be used to control learned defensive responses via inhibitory signals from the ventromedial prefrontal cortex to the amygdala. One drawback of these techniques is that these responses are only inhibited and can return, with one factor being stress. I will then describe novel behavioral techniques that might result in a more lasting fear or threat reduction. Finally, I will discuss potential limitations of this translational approach.

Development of fire model source terms and effects in the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) atmospheric transport and dispersion code

This paper describes a model which has been developed to represent the input of the products of combustion of large fires into the atmosphere, for subsequent calculation of the transport and dispersion by atmospheric processes. The objective was to have a model suitable for rapid implementation to support the needs of emergency responders. Consequently, the model characterizes the sources by a small number of parameters, which then define the rest of the model in terms of quantity and rate of release of products of combustion. There are two fundamental situations modeled – a hydrocarbon pool fire, and a building fire. The hydrocarbon pool fire is characterized by the area and mass, while the various forms of building fires are reduced to two: wooden buildings and steel-framed buildings, with further discrimination being made by area and duration of the fire. The building fires are assumed to be driven primarily by cellulosic materials, with the amount of such material being normalized to the floor area with parameters taken from the literature. A certain number of toxic contaminants, with levels as suggested by the firefighting literature, are provided in these models. The analyst can amend these levels, or ignore them, as desired. The models developed have been incorporated into the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) Hazard Prediction and Capability (HPAC) code. This code breaks down the hazard prediction process into three components: 1) Generation of a source term describing the introduction of the contaminant to the atmosphere; 2) Transport, dispersion, and deposition of the contaminants by atmospheric processes, and; 3) Computation of the effects of the contaminant, usually at the surface. Source term generation modules includes such things as biological and nuclear warfare, and toxic industrial chemicals (TIC). The present work adds a fire module to the mix. • Fires are parameterized to minimize required inputs. • The model is sufficiently flexible that almost any contaminant can be added. • The building fire model is oriented to combustion of the whole building, rather than the contents of the building. • Atmospheric structural variability effects on transport are accounted for. • Doppler weather radar data from a real-world fire is consistent with this model.

Refining carbon credits to contribute to large carnivore conservation: The jaguar as a case study

AbstractCarbon credits through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) offer a unique opportunity to positively impact habitat and biodiversity conservation. Few financial tools are available to jaguar conservationists to conserve forest habitats; thus carbon credits are of great interest. In order to examine the opportunities and challenges of integrating conservation impact for jaguars and biodiversity into carbon credits, we review 44 REDD+ projects in Latin America certified by Verified Carbon Standard + Climate, Community and Biodiversity located within jaguar distribution, registered between 2011 and 2020. Of the 44, only eleven of those projects have jaguars as conservation targets, and seven of those eleven have a coherent plan for monitoring jaguar populations. While REDD+ projects promote forest cover and biomass conservation, tradeoffs based on limited financial resources at the onset and throughout the project may lead to limited monitoring capabilities and threat reduction, thus rendering co‐benefit reporting deficient or absent. We suggest more rigorous baseline data requirements of fauna populations, greater collaboration between project developers, researchers and local communities to monitor wildlife and address human‐jaguar conflicts, and clear requirements from national level REDD+ initiatives to ensure the conservation of a forest keystone species, the Americas’ largest felid.

Influence of land cover features on avian community and potential conservation priority areas for biodiversity at a Ramsar site in India

BackgroundWetlands provide diverse ecological services to sustain rich biodiversity, but they are recklessly exploited around the globe. East Kolkata Wetlands (EKW; Ramsar site No. 1208, ~ 125 km2) was once very rich in faunal diversity that declined over the years due to various anthropogenic pressures. In such scenarios, effective management plans need to contemplate local and landscape level initiatives and prioritize areas for conservation. Studying the foraging guild structure and spatial patterns of relationship between bird and its environment provides important insight of ecological processes of avifauna. Thus, we carried out extensive surveys in 142 point count stations to explore the diversity and foraging guild structure of birds in EKW. We addressed two important questions that how bird diversity varied from the outer periphery of the city towards the wetlands and how bird diversity is influenced by land cover features at local and landscape level in wetland complex. The goal of this study was to prepare a spatial map of avian diversity and to find the conservation priority areas for birds in this internationally recognized wetland complex.ResultsWe recorded 94 species of birds and the Shannon diversity index values ranged between 1.249 and 3.189. We found that the avian diversity increased with increasing distance from city periphery. Omnivores and insectivores were the dominant foraging guilds, followed by carnivores, granivores, frugivores and piscivores. Generalized Linear Models revealed that bird communities were positively influenced by areas of wetlands, dikes and banks, agricultural field and emergent vegetation, and negatively influenced by built-up area. In the projected spatial map of species diversity, 74.15 km2 area has high diversity. Finally, we identified 12.82 km2 of top 10% conservation priority areas.ConclusionsLow bird diversity near city periphery is related to habitat degradation due to anthropogenic pressure. Dominance of omnivores and insectivores indicates a possible impact of urbanization in EKW. We suggest that a mix of agricultural field, wetland areas and emergent vegetation helps to sustain a greater avian community. Besides, protection of conservation priority areas, restoration of the degraded habitats and reduction of threats (particularly in the north-eastern parts of EKW near the city periphery) will ensure the conservation of avifauna, and also the overall biodiversity of EKW.

An Information-Based Approach to Sustainable Eco-Communities through Climate Change Initiatives

Numerous searches conducted across the globe on Climatic Change initiatives reveal that current human discharges of atmospheric glasshouse gases are of the utmost in the record. Recent weather conditions have had extensive effects on man and ecological communities. Diverse varieties of living things have been impacted negatively by the sudden changes in their ecological habitats, irregular transformation in atmospheric conditions, movement forms, supplies and varieties interrelationships in action to ongoing climatic variation. The current trends and forces on diverse living components will continue to expand, and varieties of living things will further reduce. This study assessed recent information on the impact of ecological communities worldwide and their impacts on climate change alleviation. The data guiding this study derived from the various reports from academic articles and other related studies which citations appropriately utilise in this ongoing study. The research offers information on the capability of previous administrative methods for wetlands, wildlands and pampas lands, coastland ecological communities and farmlands to support and promote carbon accumulation and carbon drifts. The research suggested increasing collaborations with climatic variation solutions, hazard threat reduction, viable growth, and ecological and living organisms. The diverse solutions offer broader land-use methods that consider all investors' viable advantages, information, and competencies. Empirical proof regarding living organisms' relevance for sustainable ecological communities and operation, thus the broad impact of a climatic change initiative, is vividly represented in this study.

Understanding One Health through biological and behavioral risk surveillance in Liberia: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundThe 2014 Ebola crisis in West Africa mainly affected Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, claiming the lives of over 11 000 people, including health-care workers. Following this crisis, the Ebola Host Project worked to identify the wildlife reservoir for the virus that started the epidemic, to detect other related filoviruses, and to better understand ecological and human behavioral dynamics that could inform future risk reduction and prevention strategies. Here, we report key ecological and behavioral results for Liberia. MethodsIn Liberia, this cross-sectional study was conducted in 13 sites throughout eight counties. The project used a One Health biological-behavioral surveillance approach that included catch-and-release wildlife sampling and behavioral risk surveys. These sites were chosen from counties with forested areas inhabited by bats and rodents and included counties that were both severely and minimally impacted by the Ebola crisis. The analysis included 5000 bat and rodent biological samples, and the behavioural risk survey included 585 enrolled human participants from eight counties. Participants were selected from villages within a 5 km range of the 18 sampling sites, and they provided writteninformed consent. In addition to US based approvals, the Liberian National Ethical and Review Board, the Liberian Forest Development Authority and local government authorities approved the study and community work. FindingsThis sampling effort led to the first-time discovery of an Ebolavirus in a west African bat (Miniopterus inflatus) in January 2019. Across five of the eight counties, including Nimba County where the infected Miniopterus inflatus was sampled, mosquitos and tsetse flies were also identified as present vectors. Respondents reported the ways in which they interfaced with taxa of interest such as rodents. These interactions included wildlife consumption and proximity to human dwellings—interactions that present the risk of zoonotic infections that may go misdiagnosed as fevers of unknown origin. Respondents additionally described gaps in knowledge around topics such as the aetiology of Ebola in Liberia, as well as changes in the level of concern towards Ebola risk, which rose during the crisis but later returned to pre-crisis levels. InterpretationOur results highlight how, against the backdrop of human-wildlife interactions in these Liberian communities that present spillover risk, there exist opportunities to bridge knowledge gaps and create cues to encourage continued vigilance against transmission. FundingThis project was funded by USAID, and analysis with regard to the risk of acute febrile illnesses continues with funding from the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data

The US is exposed to myriad natural hazards causing USD billions in damages and thousands of fatalities each year. Significant population and economic growth during the last several decades have resulted in more people residing in hazardous places. However, consistent national-scale hazard threat assessment techniques reflecting the state of hazard knowledge are not readily available for application in risk and vulnerability assessments. Mapping natural hazard threats is the crucial first step in identifying and implementing threat reduction or mitigation strategies. In this study, we demonstrate applied GIS approaches for creating and synthesizing US hazard threat extents using publicly available data for 15 natural hazards. Individually mapping each threat enables empirically supported intervention development and the building of a Composite Hazard Index (CHI). Summarizing the hazard frequencies provides a novel representation of US hazardousness. Implementing cluster analysis to regionalize US counties based on their underlying hazard characteristics offers insight into hazard threats’ spatial (non-political) natures. The results indicate that the southeast, central plains, and coastal regions of the northeast had high hazard occurrence scores, whereas more moderate hazard scores were observed west of the continental divide. Furthermore, while no place is safe from hazard occurrence, identifying each region’s distinct “hazardousness” can support individualized risk assessments and mitigation intervention development.

The natural reduction of threat in selected systems of old buildings containing asbestos

The aim of this study was to measure changes in asbestos dust concentrations over extended use in old building systems. Buildings from different systems during their service lifetimes and after asbestos removal were tested. Asbestos dust concentrations decreased in all building systems due to air exchange and other phenomena in the absence of new active dust sources. Currently, with proper use of those buildings, average values of dust concentrations did not exceed 300–400 f/m3 with a downward trend to < 300 f/m3. The results of these studies were obtained with a modified optical microscopy technique, verified by SEM and TEM methods. The graphical trends in concentration changes over longer periods illustrate the potency of opposing factors reducing and increasing indoor air pollution. If removal asbestos work was not carried out carefully, single measurements conducted in the short-term and mandated immediately after asbestos removal may not detect hazards that appear over time. Monitoring buildings over longer periods allows detection of significant contamination changes. In many cases, the minimal air contamination undermines the desirability of removing asbestos in old buildings.

Russia, Central Asia and Non‐traditional Security Threats from Afghanistan following the US Withdrawal

AbstractIn the early 21st century, non‐traditional security threats such as terrorism and narcotics trafficking drove the revival of post‐Soviet Russia's interest in and concern about the Afghan problem. This article outlines main security threats for Russia and Central Asia in Afghanistan during two decades of the United States (US) presence, identifies new risks, aggravating circumstances, and threat reduction factors following the US forces’ final departure and Taliban's comeback to power since 2021, and explores ways to counter main Afghanistan‐related security risks. For Russia and broader Eurasia, actual and potential non‐traditional security threats emanating from Afghanistan are likely to persist under the Taliban's second rule. However, none of them are unmanageable. While inside Afghanistan, much depends on the new Taliban authorities’ performance, it is up to the Central Asian states themselves and to Russia as their Eurasian security ally to hedge against potential scenarios. If the security pillar of Russia's response is confined to Central Asia and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the political‐diplomatic one extends to broader region and beyond. Overall, Russia has learnt its own historical lessons on Afghanistan: Moscow now prioritizes collective action in cooperation with regional powers, under multilateral frameworks extending beyond the region, and at the United Nations (UN).

Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Conservation Project on Two Threatened Birds: Applying Expert-Based Threat Analysis and Threat Reduction Assessment in a Mediterranean Wetland

We applied two recent approaches largely used in biological conservation: Threat Analysis (TAN) and Threat Reduction Assessments (TRAs), assessing the effectiveness of a project focused on two water-related bird species (common tern, Sterna hirundo and little tern, Sternula albifrons), commonly breeding in some wetlands of Italy. We used the IUCN standardized lexicon for the classification of threats, utilizing a panel of experts to assess a set of regime attributes (extent, severity and magnitude) of each human-induced disturbance. Our aims were: (i) through the TAN approach, to carry out an arrangement and quantification of the main threats acting on our focal species and select the priority ones; (ii) through the TRA approach, to test the effectiveness of an operational project focused on mitigating the threats and improving the breeding success of species (i.e., building rafts and floating islands to encourage their nesting). Using the TAN approach, experts identified the following human-induced threats (IUCN code): 6.1—Generic disturbance; 7.2—Water stress; 7.3—Salinization; 8.8—Vagrant dogs; 8.8—Mediterranean gulls; 8.8—Wild boars, all significantly different in their magnitude. Among them, wild boars and Mediterranean gulls appeared the priority threats with the greatest extent, intensity and magnitude. Using the TRA approach, after the project, we assessed an overall decrease in the threat magnitude of 23.08% (21.42% when considering only the threats directly affected by our project). These data suggest that further efforts should be devoted to achieving greater effectiveness of conservation actions focused on our target species. With limited time and resources to quantify threats, expert-based approaches could be useful for rapidly assessing the effectiveness of small conservation projects by providing a range of scores obtained following an analytical procedure. In this regard, Threat Analysis and Threat Reduction Assessment could be considered useful tools to support adaptive management in project management cycles.