Threat Multiplier Research Articles

Integrating the personal, relational, and political: empowering climate action through decolonial feminist action research

This article centres decolonial feminist contributions to action research, which orient us to see how the oppressive conceptual frameworks that enable sexism, gender violence, and gender inequality are fundamentally intertwined with those that enable racism, (neo)colonialism, and the pillaging and destruction of nature and planetary systems: all of which come together in the climate emergency. Given that climate change is unarguably a “threat multiplier”, if action research is to help combat the climate crisis, it must mobilise intersectional feminist, anti-racist, and decolonial frameworks. Integrating decolonial feminism with action research offers long-overdue theoretical, methodological, and practical insights. I use the acronym DF-AR to refer to existing and emerging forms of action research underpinned by decolonial feminist principles, as well as aspirational imaginaries gesturing towards decolonial feminist futures. Drawing on empirical insights from DF-AR processes embedded within an undergraduate final-year course in the UK, I consider how the experimental and micropolitical practices associated with these imaginaries can strengthen our response to the climate emergency: that is, the strategies and qualitative differences they afford.

Fragile Geographies and the Climate-Conflict Nexus: Investigating Climate-Induced Security Risks, Migration, and Inequality in Balochistan, Pakistan

Although climate change has been recognized as a “threat multiplier,” its specific effects on conflict-affected areas remain underexplored. This study investigates the nexus between climate change and violent conflict within the “fragile geography” of Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province. Balochistan’s increasingly fragmented security landscape and recurring natural disasters, notably the 2022 floods, provide a pertinent background for examining the interplay between climate change and violent conflict. A qualitative approach was employed, whereby interviews and group discussions were conducted in two Balochistan districts. The analysis revealed that weak institutional capacity, deep-rooted socioeconomic and political inequalities, and notably, “migration patterns” are critical variables influencing the dynamic interplay between climate change and violent conflict in the region. By analyzing the vulnerabilities inherent in Balochistan’s diverse physiography, this study illuminates how climate change exacerbates violent conflict in a region already beset by instability, highlighting the urgent need for a more nuanced understanding to address these complex challenges.

Addressing Poverty and Homelessness is Central to an Equity-Focused Response to Climate Change: Considering Canada as an Example

People experiencing poverty are highly exposed to climatic events due to multiple intersecting factors. This commentary centres on poverty, generally, and homelessness, specifically in considering the impacts of climate change on health equity in Canada. We propose prioritizing poverty reduction and prevention over emergency response through measures such as universal basic income and enhanced housing standards. Such work can be grounded in inclusive assessments of risks and leveraged interventions, Indigenous leadership, intersectoral collaboration, and community engagement. We argue that it is essential that we move beyond the current, broad awareness of climate change as a threat multiplier with an emphasis on individual responsibility and the “othering” of people experiencing poverty. What is needed is a clear, systems-focused action fundamentally different from the pace and nature of the work done to date.

Systematic Mapping of Climate Change Impacts on Human Security in Bangladesh

There is an increasing consensus that climate change undermines human security by exacerbating existing challenges, acting as a “threat multiplier”. Bangladesh is a climate hot spot due to its geographical location, dense population and vulnerable socio-economic infrastructure. Although there is an increasing number of studies on the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh, aggregated research that combines this evidence and provides a comprehensive overview is lacking. The aim of this research is to thoroughly investigate the characteristics of the academic literature on the complex pathways through which climate variability affects different components of human security in Bangladesh, allowing for determination of the trends and research gaps, as well as whether they lead to conflict or cooperation. We used a systematic mapping methodology to search and screen 1839 publications in Web of Science, including 320 publications for the final synthesis. We found a predominant research focus on rural areas, especially in the southwestern region, with declining crop yield, economic loss, migration, water shortage, food scarcity and health hazards being the highlighted impacts of climate change for Bangladesh. The impacts on food, economic, environmental, health and water security have been well studied, but we found significant research gaps in some human security components, especially energy security. Women and the economically disadvantaged are disproportionately affected, and the causal pathways between conflict or cooperation and the ever-changing climate lack research efforts, implying a dire need to focus on under-researched areas before they become more complex and difficult to address. Policies and interventions should prioritise climate-resilient agricultural practices and infrastructure in high-risk areas, building local capacities and integrating climate risk assessments into urban planning, considering the high influx of environmental migrants. This systematic map provides a foundation for future longitudinal studies, establishes a baseline for this era for future comparisons and serves as a reliable database for relevant stakeholders and policy makers.

Exploring the possible effects of social vulnerability components on terrorism

ABSTRACT Although many studies on social vulnerability focus on mitigating negative effects and crisis management in terms of the physical, economic, structural, and non-structural resilience of countries we found limited research on the effects of these indicators on terrorism that has a great unfavourable footprint on human, global, and environmental security. Furthermore, despite the differing outlooks of the various countries, the last three factors; the physical indicator is the preeminent threat multiplier worldwide. Climate change further exacerbates this vulnerability for all. In this study, we aimed to visualize the four components of “The Commonwealth Universal Vulnerability Index (UVI)” and the “Global Terrorism Index (GTI)” and revealed the effects of independent variables on dependent variable. To actualize this, we obtained valid data of these variables concerning 109 countries covering the term of 2010–2018 and analyzed using Logarithmic Multiple Linear Regression (LMLR). We found that while climate change aggravates terrorism in one way, economy, and non-structural resilience affect terrorism in a negative direction at the 95% confidence interval. However, we did not encounter a statistically meaningful relationship between terrorism and structural resilience, which enables robust human development, market connectivity, and demographic structure.

PEACE AND SECURITY, HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Purpose: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a region that is most affected by both conflict and climate change, with the Sahel, Southern Africa, and East Africa impacted severely. Research has shown climate change is a ‘threat multiplier’ while low state capability and high poverty are core conflict drivers. However, climate change gradually contributes to political, socioeconomic and environmental insecurity and fragility. This study examines perspectives of peace, security and health during climate change in SSA and explores strategic options for the region. Theoretical reference: This study is underpinned by the greenhouse effect, which is a theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Methods: This study was grounded in the postmodernist philosophy, and data was obtained using desktop research methodology. This involved reviewing academic studies and grey literature. Results and conclusion: Conflict prevention measures should ensure that climate change adaptation strategies are effectively implemented because its consequences in the region are now visible. Climate change should not be framed merely as a threat to security but as a security issue, although its role as a threat multiplier must not be trivialised or denied. Some vector-borne diseases sensitive to climate change represent an express cause for health concern, calling for evidence-based solutions. Implications of the research: Climate change has a multiplier effect on conflict and health concerns, which are less understood. Originality/Value: Although climate change does not directly cause conflict and health challenges, this study adds to the policy debate and literature by focusing on the indirect effects of climate change on peace, security and health.

NATO’s Securitization of Climate Change in the Arctic

This study analyzes how and why the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) securitizes climate change in the Arctic. The study acknowledges that climate change has not only endangered the environmental security of the Arctic but has also intensified geopolitical competition over the region’s resources and trade routes as a threat multiplier. Regarding the impact of the changing structure of the region from the “cooperation front” to the “competition area”, the study reveals that NATO considers climate change as a part of the collective defense dimension of its organizational identity, along with increasing geopolitical competition, to develop a holistic approach in its Arctic policy. Drawing on the Copenhagen School and social constructivism, the study presents that NATO resorts to securitization discourses that concretize the threat in order to address climate change within the scope of its organizational identity.

Climate Change-Induced Disaster and Its Impact on the National Security of Nepal

In the 21st century, Climate Change emerges as a non-traditional but significant contemporary challenge, acting as a potential threat multiplier in the realm of non-conventional security. While this change poses a major global environmental challenge, particularly affecting Asia, a few studies argue the ramifications of climate change for national security. As a Himalayan country, Nepal, being unique topographically with an altitude ranging from 60m to 8848.86m, is prone to various kinds of disasters, including climate change-induced among many. Existing scholarship on national security, few have explored the potential threats due to its impacts, however, the domestic literature lacks clarity on Nepal’s vulnerability towards this. In this context, geographically located in the lap of the Himalayas, Nepal has been lagging far behind in grasping the issue of climate change through the lens of national security. This study maps the possible connection between these two by examining the major adverse environmental trends and disasters that pose a security threat to Nepal. It also aims to explore the ways to potential mitigating or adaptation measures to the effects of climate change on national security which eventually helps security professionals, scholars, and decision-makers. This article uses a content analysis approach to conclude the collected information where thematic analytical interpretation is used.

The Warming Conflict: Climate Change and its Impacts on Afghanistan’s Ongoing Conflicts

There might be various and several reasons for the conflicts in Afghanistan, such as foreign political interventions, illiteracy, poverty, the geography of the country, ethnic and linguistic diversity, social injustice, various kinds of corruption, and generally a lack of rule of law. Climate change does not seem to be a direct factor in the conflicts in Afghanistan, but it is one of the main indirect factors in the conflicts. The link between climate change and conflicts in Afghanistan has not been the focus of studies yet, so little literature is found in the area. However, the intersection of climate change and conflict in Afghanistan presents a critical area of study, as environmental stressors exacerbate the already volatile socio-political landscape. Looking at the importance of the link between climate change and unresolved conflicts in Afghanistan, a literature review was done to find out how these two link to each other. Particularly, this paper explores the multifaceted impacts of climate change on Afghanistan's ongoing conflict, analyzing how rising temperatures, unpredictable precipitation, and extreme weather events contribute to resource scarcity and displacement, thereby fueling tensions and violence. Drawing on recent environmental data, conflict analysis, and case studies, the paper argues that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, intensifying competition over natural resources, undermining livelihoods, and complicating peacebuilding efforts. The findings underscore the urgency of integrating climate adaptation strategies into conflict resolution and development programs to foster long-term stability and resilience in Afghanistan. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for national and international stakeholders to address the nexus of climate change and conflict, emphasizing the need for collaborative, cross-sectoral approaches to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities for peace.

Disease‐smart climate adaptation for wildlife management and conservation

Climate change is a well‐documented driver and threat multiplier of infectious disease in wildlife populations. However, wildlife disease management and climate‐change adaptation have largely operated in isolation. To improve conservation outcomes, we consider the role of climate adaptation in initiating or exacerbating the transmission and spread of wildlife disease and the deleterious effects thereof, as illustrated through several case studies. We offer insights into best practices for disease‐smart adaptation, including a checklist of key factors for assessing disease risks early in the climate adaptation process. By assessing risk, incorporating uncertainty, planning for change, and monitoring outcomes, natural resource managers and conservation practitioners can better prepare for and respond to wildlife disease threats in a changing climate.

İklim Değişikliği, Tehdit Çarpanı Etkisi ve Güvenlik: İklim Güvenliğinden Uluslararası Güvenliğe

İklim değişikliği direkt ve tehdit çarpanı etkileri üzerinden ele alınan çok boyutlu ve kapsamlı bir meseledir. Güvenlik çalışmaları literatüründe ise iklim değişikliğinin direkt ve tehdit çarpanı etkileri sıklıkla insan güvenliği, ulusal güvenlik ve uluslararası güvenlik üzerinden çalışılmaktadır. Özellikle tehdit çarpanı etkisi, mevcut kırılganlıkları şiddetlendirici özelliği ile birden fazla analiz düzeyini etkileyen ve literatürde tartışılan bir konudur. Ancak, karmaşık, bazen büyük ölçekli ve çok katmanlı niteliklere sahip olabilen tehdit çarpanı etkisini bir ya da ikiden fazla analiz düzeyi üzerinden inceleyen az sayıda çalışma bulunmaktadır. İklim değişikliği hem bireysel hem ulusal hem küresel bir problemdir dolayısıyla bu meseleye birden fazla analiz düzeyi üzerinden bakabilmek önemlidir. Graeger›in 1996 yılında çevresel güvenlik üzerine yaptığı araştırmadan ilham alan bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğine yalnızca ulusal veya uluslararası güvenlik gözlüğünden bakmanın sınırlılıklarını eleştirerek iklim değişikliği, güvenlik ve sosyal, ekonomik veya politik kırılganlıklar arasındaki çoklu bağlantılara odaklanan bütünsel bir yaklaşımı savunmaktadır. Analitik literatür taramasına dayanan bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin etkilerini analiz etmek için çok düzeyli bir güvenlik çerçevesi önermektedir. Çalışmanın merkezinde güvenliğin referans nesneleri arasında nedensellik bağları kuran çok düzeyli sistematik bir perspektif yer almaktadır. Çalışma, etkili eylem ve stratejilerin bağlama özgü olması ve birden fazla analiz düzeyine uygun olması gerektiği sonucuna vararak iklim değişikliğini çok düzeyli güvenlik çerçevesinden ele almanın önemini savunmaktadır.

Lakes in the Anthropocene: Reflections on Tracking Ecosystem Change in the Arctic

This book - requested by S.J. Hawkins, the Editor of Excellence in Ecology, when John Smol was recognized with the International Ecology Institute Prize - is certainly one of the most modern and complete texts on the Canadian Arctic. The polar area like many other extreme environments that I studied during my scientific activity (e.g., Greenland, Antarctica, Svalbard archipelago, Finland Lapland and mountain ecosystems), has for years been subject to great alterations due to climate changes (“the big threat multiplier”), mine effluents, local and long-distance pollution. The book provides an excellent overview of how the arctic environment has developed during the last ca. 200 years and even before. The Arctic environment is transforming rapidly....

Climate just entrepreneurship: feminist entrepreneurship for climate action

PurposeThis paper aims to explore synergies between feminist, first nations and queer theories and social, circular and climate entrepreneurship, to build a framework for supporting climate just entrepreneurship.Design/methodology/approachThis paper draws on an extensive qualitative review of the literature on gender justice, equality, social entrepreneurship, the circular economy, climate entrepreneurship and climate action, as well as theorising feminist, first nations and queer approaches to climate action through entrepreneurship.FindingsWhilst climate change is a “threat multiplier” for existing gender (and other) inequalities, gaps remain in engraining gender equality and gender justice principles in social, circular and climate entrepreneurship. Through analysing the literature for critical gaps and theorising at the intersection of climate entrepreneurship and feminist, first nations and queer theories, the authors advocate that a framework for climate just entrepreneurship could play a pivotal role in combining proactive climate action and gender equality measures through entrepreneurship. It could also be a significant step towards ensuring entrenched, systemic inequalities are not perpetuated in nascent and rapidly evolving fields such as the circular economy, social enterprise and climate entrepreneurship.Originality/valueThe literature on climate entrepreneurship is burgeoning, yet key entrepreneurial concepts lack an explicitly feminist or gender lens approach, even whilst being inextricably linked to effective climate action. This paper seeks to rectify this gap by promoting climate just entrepreneurship as a model for effective climate action.

Indirect Impacts of Climate Change Litigation

Climate change has been the subject of much debate as a threat multiplier to international peace and security. The risk that climate change might adversely affect conflict situations has generally been accepted. Its role towards the exacerbation of risk factors for atrocity crimes has, however, received little attention to date. As the number of climate change litigation cases increases internationally, it raises questions as to the potential impact of climate litigation, not only vis-à-vis climate action, but also beyond. This article considers whether effective climate litigation may prevent conflict and atrocity crimes elsewhere. It concludes that, where climate litigation is successful in achieving accountability for the implementation or enforcement of States’ climate commitments, it may have an indirect impact on alleviating the outbreak of conflict and contributing towards the prevention of atrocity crimes.

What climate? The different meaning of climate indicators in violent conflict studies

This paper explores the operationalization of climate-related indicators in violent conflict research. The climate-conflict narrative gained traction in recent decades and climate change is often referred to as a ‘threat multiplier’ by both policy makers and scholars. Yet, the relationships between climate-related phenomena and violent conflict are complex and context-specific. However, limited attention has been given to the climatic indicators applied in climate-conflict research. This paper addresses that gap by analyzing 32 studies published from 2004 to 2020 on the operationalization of climatic indicators and their relationship with violent conflict. It first categorizes climate indicators operationalization into five clusters: natural disasters, basic climate variability, advanced climate variability, freshwater availability, and the ENSO. The study evaluates the climate indicators for each cluster and shows that at an aggregate level these clusters examine 68 different climate representations. When paired with their respective conflict types, it finds a total of 113 climate-conflict combinations. Most operationalizations represent various forms of climate-related phenomena and variability rather than climate change. Some indicators are advancements over time, for example moving from changes in average rainfall to standardized precipitation indices. However, other indicators refer to various natural processes, making it challenging to determine whether climatic variability impacts conflict. The paper then demonstrates a discrepancy between the pathways through which climate may affect violent conflict and the representation of these pathways in the selected climate indicators. It discusses how the selection and operationalization of climate indicators requires careful consideration, and the phenomena researched should be well-specified in research findings.

Climate change as a threat multiplier to environmental reproductive justice

Legacies of racial capitalism and colonialism drive present day racial disparities in perinatal health outcomes. Climate change amplifies existing social inequalities associated with environmental exposures and reproductive health, of which BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and people of color) communities bear a disproportionate burden. Through case studies, this article summarizes three examples of climate justice issues with reproductive healthcare outcomes: traffic related air pollution exposure, chemical exposures in personal care products and plastics, and natural disaster frequency. We advocate for incorporation of climate justice and environmental health impact into medical school curriculum, increased prenatal screening for environmental toxins, and physician engagement with local environmental issues.

“Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier”: Security and Communal Implications for Iraq

“Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier”: Security and Communal Implications for Iraq

“Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier”: Security and Communal Implications for Iraq

“Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier”: Security and Communal Implications for Iraq

Radicalizing Hope

The race against COVID-19 has been intense and painful and many of us are now looking for a way to move on. We may try to seize a degree of comfort and security by convincing ourselves that we are among the “fittest”—that is, among those who have managed to survive—who can now hope for a “new-normal” time, relatively unscathed. But this isn’t what we should be hoping for. Our world, and ourselves, will never be free of COVID-19 or its insidious effects. COVID-19, like climate change, is a threat multiplier and the challenges it has raised are now indelibly engraved in our vulnerable, interconnected lives. Rather than vainly hoping for a return to an imaginary, erstwhile “normal” what we need is something more fundamental: a new version of hope that embraces a courage to learn what we need to do, to enable us to live a future to which we aspire. Perhaps counter-intuitively, we need to accept that the COVID-19 experience has already changed us deeply and hope that we can learn from this and from the future changes that the pandemic will give rise to. We need to radicalize our responses to the challenges, enabling ourselves to learn new lessons about old but increasingly pertinent topics, such as the realities of human fragility, and inter-connection.

Climate change and homeland security nexus: Proposal for a comprehensive conceptual framework

Climate change is a significant security concern in the 21st century. This study is specifically focused on the interplay between climate change and domestic security within the U.S. context but is of relevance to other countries that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The study comparatively explores mainstream environmental security literature and U.S. homeland security academic literature on climate-security nexus and establishes three things as follows. First, there is a relatively small but growing body of literature that explores the nexus between climate change and U.S. homeland security. Second, contemporary homeland security academic literature primarily frames climate change as a threat multiplier but does not account for maladaptation, which this article argues is a key aspect of the climate-security nexus including within the U.S. context. Third, maladaptation is already increasingly being accounted for within mainstream environmental security literature in addition to the threat multiplier aspect of the nexus. The article advances knowledge on climate-security nexus within homeland security field by proposing a comprehensive conceptual framework that would enable U.S. homeland security academics to account for both threat multiplier and maladaptation aspects of the climate change problem in their analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for future research.