Threat Assessment Method Research Articles

The method of threat assessment and interference distribution within the framework of cognitive electronic warfare

Problem statement. Electromagnetic spectrum control (EMC) plays an important role in conflict radar. The EMS operational area has unique characteristics that can be used to gain superiority over the enemy. The use of advanced developments in cognitive electronic warfare (CRAB) makes it possible to achieve a dominant position in the use of EMS. The combination of artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies with advanced electronic warfare (EW) technologies has made it possible to take an important step in ensuring maneuverable operations in a duel situation aircraft (LA) – radar station (radar). The presented approach demonstrates the increased efficiency of the CRE due to the use of the threat assessment and interference distribution method (SDR). Goal. The purpose of the article is to show how modern technologies provide a noise distribution strategy that allows aircraft to survive in a dueling situation, despite its complexity. Results. It is shown that the ESD method uses various radar jamming modes, such as: interaction between types and sources of jamming, relative frequency and bandwidth, uncertainty of the threatening environment, and also models the evaluation of radar effectiveness from search to guidance. Practical significance. The article confirms that the conflict radar scenario, which takes into account threat assessments for aircraft and determines the distribution of interference for radar, allows us to determine the optimal interference strategy.

Cybersecurity Assessment and Vulnerability Modelling of Networks and Web Services in Nigerian Colleges of Education

Cybersecurity threats are among the most significant risks facing organizations and government today, and administrative boards have now been held accountable. This is an experimental research activity conducted to perform a holistic cybersecurity assessment and vulnerability modelling on the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure and services of Colleges of Education in the six geopolitical zones. The study adopts an integrated bi-modal threat modelling and assessment (IBTMA) method by combining assessment and modelling approaches, which involves mixed-methods, along with computer-based experimentation to comprehensively evaluate and model cybersecurity threats, identify vulnerabilities, and propose effective mitigation strategies. Logistic regression data analysis was used to model the relationship between dependent variables (e.g., presence or absence of vulnerabilities or threats) and independent variables (e.g., cybersecurity practices, system configurations, policies, and staff training programs). This cybersecurity assessment provides the initial understanding of the security landscape and practices. The next step involves using the Microsoft Threat Modeling tool on the assets to identify specific threats. These threats are then prioritized based on their potential impact and likelihood. Assessment result of the vulnerability exposure is supported by the threat modelling report, which shows several threats: tampering, elevation of privilege, denial of service, privilege escalation, information disclosure, and spoofing. Findings from the study indicate that colleges face critical network and web vulnerabilities that need holistic solution.

A threat assessment method based on correlation-similarity information and three-way decisions in interval intuitionistic fuzzy environment

Threat assessment of targets is a critical component of combat decision-making. Existing threat assessment methods only consider specific dimensions of information. When information is missing or abnormal, they may fail to provide accurate assessment results. Moreover, most methods can only obtain the threat level of targets without providing target threat levels based on the battlefield environment. Therefore, in the context of interval intuitionistic fuzziness, this paper proposes a threat assessment method based on Grey Correlation Analysis and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (GCA-TOPSIS) and three-way decisions. This method utilizes interval intuitionistic fuzzy entropy to calculate attribute weights. It simultaneously considers information on both similarity and correlation between targets. By introducing grey correlation coefficients to balance the similarity and correlation between targets and the ideal solution, the method computes threat degrees based on the information from both dimensions. Through fuzzy evaluation information, it constructs loss functions, calculates decision thresholds, and thereby determines the threat levels of the targets. This approach is better suited for the complex and dynamic battlefield environment, providing decision-makers with target threat levels. Finally, we conducted simulation experiments under both complete data and data anomaly conditions. The results indicate that when the data noise reaches 0.5 dB, the absolute error of GCA-TOPSIS is only 0.08. When 66.67% of the data is missing, the error is 0.16. In both scenarios, the error is much smaller than that of other threat assessment methods. This demonstrates the method's strong robustness and its suitability for complex battlefields.

Multi-UAV Cooperative Air Combat Target Assignment Method Based on VNS-IBPSO in Complex Dynamic Environment

This paper investigates the threat assessment method and target assignment algorithm in multi-UAV cooperative air combat decision-making. To address the uncertainty and dynamic changes in multiple threat attributes and attribute information of UAV targets, we propose a UAV target dynamic threat assessment method based on intuitionistic fuzzy multiattribute decision-making. Firstly, we propose a mixed situation information representation method to represent interval-valued fuzzy data appropriately. Secondly, we employ the normal distribution weight assignment method to fuse the multi-time situation information. Then, by incorporating the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method, we determine the normalized threat value of the target considering both objective situation data characteristics and decision-maker preferences. Finally, a simulation example is provided to validate the rationality of our proposed algorithm. For solving the multi-weapon multi-target assignment problem, a target assignment method based on the VNS-IBPSO algorithm is introduced. This method improves upon the limitations of the BPSO algorithm, such as limited local search capability and premature convergence, by combining variable neighborhood search and an improved binary particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed threat assessment method can obtain reasonable threat assessment results under complex dynamic environments. The proposed VNS-IBPSO algorithm can solve the target assignment model quickly and efficiently based on the assessment results, therefore ensuring that the UAV mission planning system makes the correct combat plan.

A New Multi-Target Three-Way Threat Assessment Method with Heterogeneous Information and Attribute Relevance

Target threat assessment provides support for combat decision making. The multi-target threat assessment method based on a three-way decision can obtain threat classification while receiving threat ranking, thus avoiding the limitation of traditional two-way decisions. However, the heterogeneous situation information, attribute relevance, and adaptive information processing needs in complex battlefield environment bring challenges to existing methods. Therefore, this paper proposes a new multi-target three-way threat assessment method with heterogeneous information and attribute relevance. Firstly, dynamic assessment information is represented by heterogeneous information, and attribute weights are calculated by heterogeneous Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC). Then, the conditional probability is calculated by the heterogeneous weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and the adaptive risk avoidance coefficients are constructed by calculating the uncertainty of the assessment value, and then the relative loss function matrices are constructed. Finally, the comprehensive loss function matrices are obtained by the weighted Heronian mean (HM) operator, and the comprehensive thresholds are calculated to obtain the three-way rules. The case study shows that compared with the existing methods, the proposed method can effectively handle the heterogeneous information and attribute relevance, and obtain the risk avoidance coefficients without presetting or field subjective settings, which is more suitable for the complex mission environment.

Towards a practical threat assessment methodology for crop landraces.

Crop landraces (LR), the traditional varieties of crops that have been maintained for millennia by repeated cycles of planting, harvesting, and selection, are genetically diverse compared to more modern varieties and provide one of the key components for crop improvement due to the ease of trait transfer within the crop species. However, LR diversity is increasingly threatened with genetic erosion and extinction by replacement with improved cultivars, lack of incentives for farmers to maintain traditional agricultural systems, and rising threats from climate change. Their active conservation is necessary to maintain this critical resource. However, as there are hundreds of thousands of LR and millions of LR populations for crops globally, active conservation is complex and resource-intensive. To assist in implementation, it is useful to be able to prioritise LR for conservation action and an obvious means of prioritisation is based on relative threat assessment. There have been several attempts to propose LR threat assessment methods, but none thus far has been widely accepted or applied. The aim of this paper is to present a novel, practical, standardised, and objective methodology for LR threat assessment derived from the widely applied IUCN Red Listing for wild species, involving the collation of time series information for LR population range, LR population trend, market, and farmer characteristics and LR context information. The collated information is compared to a set of threat criteria and an appropriate threat category is assigned to the LR when a threshold level is reached. The proposed methodology can be applied at national, regional, or global levels and any crop group.

A novel threat assessment method for maritime defense integrating improved IT2FBWM, prospect theory and VIKOR under hybrid fuzzy environment

The weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms have posed a significant threat to maritime civilian and military installations. For effective defense deployment, threat assessment has become a critical part of maritime defense decision-making. However, due to the uncertainty of threat information and the ignorance of decision-makers’ psychological behaviors, there are great challenges in obtaining a reliable and accurate threat assessment result to assist in maritime defense decision-making. To this end, this paper proposes an integrated threat assessment method for maritime defense against UAV swarms based on improved interval type-2 fuzzy best-worst method (IT2FBWM), prospect theory and VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje, in Serbian). Firstly, the improved IT2FBWM is designed by introducing interval type-2 fuzzy set (IT2FS) and entropy-based information to obtain attribute weights with high reliability. Then, the hybrid fuzzy scheme covering IT2FS and interval number is constructed to express the uncertainty of different types of threat information. Next, VIKOR is extended to hybrid fuzzy environment and combined with prospect theory to consider the influence of psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Finally, the improved IT2FBWM and extended VIKOR are integrated to determine the threat ranking of targets and the priority defense targets. A case study of maritime threat assessment is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. Moreover, sensitivity and comparative experiments were conducted, and the results indicate that the proposed method not only obtain the reliable threat assessment result but also outperforms the other methods in terms of attribute weight determination, decision preference consideration and decision mechanism.

Threat assessment for air-to-ground combat of UAVs using improved Bayesian networks

Aiming at the problems of information uncertainty and real-time faced by ground threat assessment during UAV air-to-ground combat, the limitations of existing threat assessment methods are analyzed, and a new threat assessment method based on improved Bayesian network is proposed in this paper. In this method, a hybrid-driven approach of threat data and expert knowledge is used to improve the rationality of threat assessment model, and a layered threat assessment architecture is constructed. Threat levels are classified based on the relationship between carrier aircraft and threat envelope, threat radiation, etc. In order to improve the rationality of the ground threat assessment model, a calculation model of ground threat intervisibility probability is established, and the intervisibility probability is taken as the input of Bayesian network threat assessment model. Simulation results show that the model has less computation and good real-time performance, and the introduction of threat intervisibility probability improves the rationality of ground threat assessment.

PROMETHEE-Based Multi-AUV Threat Assessment Method Using Combinational Weights

The assessment of multiple incoming autonomous underwater vehicles (multi-AUVs) and threat prioritization are critical to underwater defense. To solve problems troubling multi-AUV threat assessment solutions, such as difficult data analysis, high subjectivity, and rigid prioritization logic, we propose the PROMETHEE algorithm based on fusion weights calculated twice by entropy and an analytic network process (ANP), respectively. First, according to AUV detection performance and underwater confrontation situation analysis, the main criteria and indicators of threat assessment are determined. The threat assessment system is provided by unified measurement of these indicators. Then, through analysis and assessment, the weighting algorithm is designed using entropy and ANP. The subjective weight calculated based on ANP and the objective weight obtained based on the entropy method are fused twice to obtain the combined weights, and the influence of subjective and objective factors on problem analysis is considered. Finally, by analyzing the simulation results of a multi-AUV, it is proven that the proposed algorithm is scientific and effective for AUV threat assessment. According to the experimental results, accurate evaluation of the target improved by at least 10%, enabling delivery of results close to the real confrontation situation with high reliability.

A Target Threat Assessment Method for Application in Air Defense Command and Control Systems

Introduction. This paper presents a solution for threat assessment of air targets using the fuzzy logic inference method. The approach is based on the Sugeno fuzzy model, which has multiple inputs representing target trajectory parameters and a single output representing the target threat value. A set of IF–THEN fuzzy inference rules, utilizing the AND operator, is developed to assess the input information.Aim. To develop and test an algorithm model to calculate the threat value of an air target for use in real-time automated command and control systems.Materials and methods. An algorithm model was developed using a fuzzy model to calculate the threat value of a target. The model is presented in the form of a flowchart supported by a detailed stepwise implementation process. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm was evaluated using the available toolkit in MATLAB. Additionally, a BATE software testbed was developed to assess the applicability of the algorithm model in a real-time automated command and control system.Results. The efficiency of the proposed fuzzy model was evaluated by its simulation and testing using MATLAB tools on a set of 10 target trajectories with different parameters. Additionally, the BATE software was utilized to test the model under various air defense scenarios. The proposed fuzzy model was found to be capable of efficiently computing the threat value of each target with respect to the protected object.Conclusion. The proposed fuzzy model can be applied when developing tactical supporting software modules for real-time air defense command and control systems.

Target Threat Assessment in Air Combat with BP Neural Network for UAV

Target threat assessment is the most important element in command control communication and computer intelligence surveillance reconnaissance (C4ISR) system which is the key function in air combat situation analysis and can select the most valuable target to the commander. A threat assessment model of multi-UAV platform cooperative engagement built based on back propagate neural network (BPNN) is present in this paper, which provides a machine learning method for the threat assessment. The BPNN target threat assessment model has six input nodes, 10 hide nodes and 1 output node, which can fit the complicated nonlinear relationship between threat value and target behavior state. Simulation experiment is executed to verify the accuracy of the proposed BPNN target threat assessment method, and the result shows that the method is effective and can be applied to the real air combat.

A method for insider threat assessment by modeling the internal employee interactions

A method for insider threat assessment by modeling the internal employee interactions

A New Model of Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Weighted Operators and Their Application in Dynamic Fusion Target Threat Assessment.

Existing missile defense target threat assessment methods ignore the target timing and battlefield changes, leading to low assessment accuracy. In order to overcome this problem, a dynamic multi-time fusion target threat assessment method is proposed. In this method, a new interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging operator is proposed to effectively aggregate multi-source uncertain information; an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy entropy based on a cosine function (IVIFECF) is designed to determine the target attribute weight; an improved interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number distance measurement model is constructed to improve the discrimination of assessment results. Specifically, first of all, we define new interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy operation rules based on algebraic operations. We use these rules to provide a new model of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted arithmetic averaging (IVIFWAA) and geometric averaging (IVIFWGA) operators, and prove a number of algebraic properties of these operators. Then, considering the subjective and objective weights of the incoming target, a comprehensive weight model of target attributes based on IVIFECF is proposed, and the Poisson distribution method is used to solve the time series weights to process multi-time situation information. On this basis, the IVIFWAA and IVIFWGA operators are used to aggregate the decision information from multiple times and multiple decision makers. Finally, based on the improved TOPSIS method, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are ordered, and the weighted multi-time fusion target threat assessment result is obtained. Simulation results of comparison show that the proposed method can effectively improve the reliability and accuracy of target threat assessment in missile defense.

ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ КОМПЛЕКСНОГО ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ УГРОЗ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ В СЛОЖНЫХ ХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМАХ

The scientific article presents the main elements of the author's methodological tools for complex diagnostics of threats to the economic security of complex economic systems. The author's vision of the main structural elements of the methodological approach is presented, highlighting the main stages of the analytical tools. A matrix of systematization of threats to economic security with national development interests has been developed, and a new method of threat assessment has been proposed, depending on the scale of the manifestation on the stability of the economic system for shock, high, medium and low. The conclusion is made about the expediency of using the considered approach to develop directions for improving state and regional policy throughout the hierarchy of management of complex economic systems.

Safety and Security of the Car-Sharing System

In the SECREDAS project, the car-sharing system embodies one of the laboratory demonstrators (pilots). The system consists of an embedded device for car access, a backend server, and a mobile app. In addition, the system can be easily adapted to an access control system in general, such as car fleet management. Our team designed, implemented, and validated the system in a laboratory environment, therefore TRL (Technology Readiness Level) 4 was achieved. The implementation was also supported by design patterns developed in the project. Moreover, we addressed the security, safety, and privacy issues. This article reports the progress of work and the results achieved. Key aspects such as Identity management, Representative State Transfer (REST) API (Application Programming Interface), threat assessment and key transfer methods are also described in more detail. In this work, the symmetric rent token (car key) is heavily used; however, other techniques are presented.

Threat Assessment Method of Low Altitude Slow Small (LSS) Targets Based on Information Entropy and AHP.

In order to deal with the new threat of low altitude slow small (LSS) targets in air defense operations and provide support for LSS target interception decision, we propose a simple and reliable LSS target threat assessment method. Based on the detection capability of LSS targets and their threat characteristics, this paper proposes a threat evaluation factor and threat degree quantization function in line with the characteristics of LSS targets. LSS targets not only have the same threat characteristics as traditional air targets but also have the unique characteristics of flexible mobility and dynamic mission planning. Therefore, we use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and information entropy to determine the subjective and objective threat factor weights of LSS targets and use the optimization model to combine them to obtain more reliable evaluation weights. Finally, the effectiveness and credibility of the proposed method are verified by experimental simulation.

Threat Assessment Method for Buildings in Case of Terrorist Attacks

Threat Assessment Method for Buildings in Case of Terrorist Attacks

Comprehensive method of assessing the flood threat of artificially drained mine subsidence areas for identification and sustainable repair of mining damage to the aquatic environment

The effects of mining, apart from surface subsidences and deformations, are forced flows of surface and underground waters, lasting many decades in the mining areas. Natural water flows should be restored by mining entities and/or their legal successors in the process of the mine closures. Such action is tantamount to a restoration of the previous state in the sense of repair of damage to the environment and surface infrastructure. Then, under natural water flows conditions, such mining areas may become flooded, often quite extensively. This paper describes a comprehensive method for flood threat assessment of artificially drained mining and post-mining areas after the restoration of natural water flows. The subject of this research is the surface of a single mine subsidence area. The term mine subsidence area (MSA) is defined as that part of the rock mass containing solid mineral deposits and the above surface affected by continuous and discountinuous deformation (as currently legally defined in terms of range and intensity). This method, together with simultaneous measurements of water levels at outflow places at the MSA boundary allows for an useful way of mapping the MSA surface. This has been developed to fully identify the true extent of mining-induced damage to the MSA aquatic environment. It introduces innovative hydromorphological elements of the MSA. These allow zoning of the MSA surface while taking into consideration future drainage works and/or projected mining subsidences inside the MSA. These spatial hydromorphological maps of the MSA identify the framework of permanent and occasional flooding and constitute the final result of this method. It is an universal tool for sustainable water management and quantitative evaluation for extraction of minerals.

Research on the method of warship formation threat assessment based on structural contribution degree

In this paper, a threat assessment method based on the structural contribution of equipment is proposed. The complex network theory, entropy weight method, grey correlation method and other assessment models are comprehensively used to deconstruct the structural contribution of equipment to combat tasks from the perspective of the contribution of each ship to the structure of the entire formation. The research results can help to determine the benefit value and priority of each ship attacking the enemy formation, guide our commanders and soldiers to destroy the air defense system of the enemy formation so as to reduce the function of the system, and provide reference for the target allocation of attacking the enemy formation.

Methods for assessing the state of protection of enterprises from cybersecurity threats

Nine methods of enterprise security assessment are considered: vulnerability assessment method, network assessment method, virus detection assessment method, authentication assessment method, penetration test assessment method, social engineering threat assessment method, hardware threat assessment method, policy and countermeasures assessment method and a method for assessing natural hazards.