The extraction of thin bedrock coal seams with thick alluvium poses a challenging issue in the realm of coal safety production in China. Especially for mining under aquifers, knowing the development height of water-conducting fracture zones above the goaf is crucial for coal mine safety and production. Taking the 11092 working face of lower slice mining in Zhaogu No. 1 Mine as an example, the failure transfer process of the overlying strata is analyzed first. On this basis, the development height of the water-conducting fracture zone is predicted using empirical formulas and the BP neural network. According to the empirical formula, the height of the roof caving zone ranges from 6.93 m to 27.72 m, while the height of the water-conducting fracture zone ranges from 22.17 m to 71.73 m. The BP neural network predicts that the development height of the water-conducting fracture zone in the working face after mining is 56.83 m. CDEM numerical simulation is employed to analyze the development height of two zones of overburden rock. The findings indicate that with a mining height of 2.5 m and a cumulative mining height of 6 m, the maximum caving ratio is 2.61. It is observed that for a cumulative mining thickness of less than 6 m, a bedrock thickness of not less than 30 m, and a clay layer thickness exceeding 5 m, the clay layer effectively obstructs the upward development of the water-conducting fracture zone. Finally, the prediction results of the development height of the two zones of overlying strata in the working face are verified by using the height observation method on the underground water-conducting fracture zone and the borehole peeping method. In conclusion, the height of the overlying strata after mining the lower slice working face in the first panel of the east can be used as a basis for determining the thickness of coal (rock) pillars for waterproofing and sand control safety during the mining of lower slice working faces in mines.
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