Thermomechanical Ice-sheet Model Research Articles

Interactions between stationary waves and ice sheets: linear versus nonlinear atmospheric response

This study examines the mutual interaction between topographically-forced atmospheric stationary waves and continental-scale ice sheets using a thermomechanical ice-sheet model coupled to a linear ...

Warm Nordic Seas delayed glacial inception in Scandinavia

Abstract. We simulate the last glacial inception, 115 000 years ago, with a three dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model of the Northern Hemisphere, forced by a comprehensive coupled climate model. High oceanic heat transport into the Nordic Seas prevents large scale ice growth over Scandinavia. Glacial inception in the region starts on the highest mountains in the south when sea surface temperatures in the Nordic Seas are reduced by at least 3 °C. Ice growth in Northern Scandinavia requires a cooling by at least 4 °C. This is in good agreement with marine proxy data from the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic as well as available terrestrial data. This study thus provides a physical understanding and revised timing of the first glacier advance over Scandinavia.

Paleoglaciological reconstructions for the Tibetan Plateau during the last glacial cycle: evaluating numerical ice sheet simulations driven by GCM-ensembles

The Tibetan Plateau is a topographic feature of extraordinary dimension and has an important impact on regional and global climate. However, the glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau is more poorly constrained than that of most other formerly glaciated regions such as in North America and Eurasia. On the basis of some field evidence it has been hypothesized that the Tibetan Plateau was covered by an ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Abundant field- and chronological evidence for a predominance of local valley glaciation during the past 300,000 calendar years (that is, 300 ka), coupled to an absence of glacial landforms and sediments in extensive areas of the plateau, now refute this concept. This, furthermore, calls into question previous ice sheet modeling attempts which generally arrive at ice volumes considerably larger than allowed for by field evidence. Surprisingly, the robustness of such numerical ice sheet model results has not been widely queried, despite potentially important climate ramifications. We simulated the growth and decay of ice on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 125 ka in response to a large ensemble of climate forcings (90 members) derived from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), using a similar 3D thermomechanical ice sheet model as employed in previous studies. The numerical results include as extreme end members as an ice-free Tibetan Plateau and a plateau-scale ice sheet comparable, in volume, to the contemporary Greenland ice sheet. We further demonstrate that numerical simulations that acceptably conform to published reconstructions of Quaternary ice extent on the Tibetan Plateau cannot be achieved with the employed stand-alone ice sheet model when merely forced by paleoclimates derived from currently available GCMs. Progress is, however, expected if future investigations employ ice sheet models with higher resolution, bidirectional ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks, improved treatment of the surface mass balance, and regional climate data and climate reconstructions.

Investigating the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle

Abstract. A 2.5-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, fully coupled with the GREMLINS 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial-interglacial cycle and to investigate the ice sheets responses to both insolation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. This model reproduces the main phases of advance and retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle, although the amplitude of these variations is less pronounced than those based on sea level reconstructions. At the last glacial maximum, the simulated ice volume is 52.5×1015 m3 and the spatial distribution of both the American and Eurasian ice complexes is in reasonable agreement with observations, with the exception of the marine parts of these former ice sheets. A set of sensitivity studies has also been performed to assess the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to both insolation and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the decrease of summer insolation is the main factor responsible for the early build up of the North American ice sheet around 120 kyr BP, in agreement with benthic foraminifera δ18O signals. In contrast, low insolation and low atmospheric CO2 concentration are both necessary to trigger a long-lasting glaciation over Eurasia.

Greenland ice-sheet volume sensitivity to basal, surface and initial conditions derived from an adjoint model

AbstractWe extend the application of control methods to a comprehensive three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets). Lagrange multipliers, i.e. sensitivities, are computed with an exact, efficient adjoint model that has been generated from SICOPOLIS by rigorous application of automatic differentiation. The case study uses the adjoint model to determine the sensitivity of the total Greenland ice volume to various control variables over a 100 year period. The control space has of the order 1.2 × 106 elements, consisting of spatial fields of basal flow parameters, surface and basal forcings and initial conditions. Reliability of the adjoint model was tested through finite-difference perturbation calculations for various control variables and perturbation regions, ascertaining quantitative inferences of the adjoint model. As well as confirming qualitative aspects of ice-sheet sensitivities (e.g. expected regional variations), we detect regions where model sensitivities are seemingly unexpected or counter-intuitive, albeit ‘real’ in the sense of actual model behavior. An example is inferred regions where sensitivities of ice-sheet volume to basal sliding coefficient are positive, i.e. where a local increase in basal sliding parameter increases the ice-sheet volume. Similarly, positive (generally negative) ice temperature sensitivities in certain parts of the ice sheet are found, the detection of which seems highly unlikely if only conventional perturbation experiments had been used. The object of this paper is largely a proof of concept. Available adjoint-code generation tools now open up a variety of novel model applications, notably with regard to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and ice-sheet state estimation or data assimilation.

High-resolution numerical simulation of Younger Dryas glaciation in Scotland

We use a 500 m resolution three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model forced by a scaled GRIP temperature pattern to retrodict the extent of glaciers during the Younger Dryas episode in Scotland. Using empirical data from sources spanning half a century we systematically perturb temperature depression, precipitation distribution, and the amount of basal sliding to identify the parameter space that most closely reproduces the glacier margins identified from field investigations. Arithmetic comparison of predicted ice cover with empirical glacier extent enables mismatch to be quantified and an ‘optimum-fit’ timeslice to be identified. This ‘best-fit’ scenario occurs with a maximum mean annual temperature depression from present of 10 ∘ C and steep eastward and northward gradients imposed on a modern precipitation distribution, coupled with restricted basal sliding. Even small deviations around these values produce considerably less well-fitting glacier configurations, suggesting that only a narrow range of optimal parameterisation exists. Mismatch between modelled and empirically reconstructed glacier extents occurs as a consequence of local conditions not accommodated by the model, such as wind-blown snow accumulation and lake (loch) bathymetry, and where geological evidence is equivocal. At the domain scale, however, our simulation suggests that inception of Scottish glaciers occurs rapidly, and leads to a coherent ice cap within 400 years of initial climatic cooling. According to our model, the ice cap begins to decay relatively early in the stadial, probably as a result of increasing aridity leading to net thinning and recession of many of its margins, with final and catastrophic collapse of the ice cap occurring largely within a century.

Effect of ice sheet interactions in anthropogenic climate change simulations

We investigate the effect of ice sheets on climate change under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations with an atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) coupled to a thermomechanical ice sheet model and a vegetation model. The effect of increased meltwater fluxes from ice sheets turned out to be negligible in the phase of initial weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and more important during the recovery in subsequent centuries. Lower surface height of the Greenland ice sheet (GRIS) leads locally to a warming, especially in winter, and remotely to a cooling over northern Eurasia due to modified atmospheric circulation. With quadrupling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration the entire GRIS is exposed to surface melt in summer. On formerly ice‐covered grid points climate locally warms strongly via increased albedos, with positive feedbacks due to boreal forest expansion.

Numerical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle

Abstract. A 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle. The ice-sheet model is forced by the results from six different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climate evolution over the period under study is reconstructed using two climate equilibrium simulations performed for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and for the present-day periods and an interpolation through time between these snapshots using a glacial index calibrated against the GRIP δ18O record. Since it is driven by the timing of the GRIP signal, the temporal evolution of the ice volume and the ice-covered area is approximately the same from one simulation to the other. However, both ice volume curves and spatial distributions of the ice sheets present some major differences from one AGCM forcing to the other. The origin of these differences, which are most visible in the maximum amplitude of the ice volume, is analyzed in terms of differences in climate forcing. This analysis allows for a partial evaluation of the ability of GCMs to simulate climates consistent with the reconstructions of past ice sheets. Although some models properly reproduce the advance or retreat of ice sheets in some specific areas, none of them is able to reproduce both North American or Eurasian ice complexes in full agreement with observed sea-level variations and geological data. These deviations can be attributed to shortcomings in the climate forcing and in the LGM ice-sheet reconstruction used as a boundary condition for GCM runs, but also to missing processes in the ice-sheet model itself.

Glacial erosion and sediment dispersion from detrital cosmogenic nuclide analyses of till

Field evidence based on sedimentology, geomorphology, and sediment provenance, supported by thermo-mechanical ice sheet model simulations, are used to classify the thermal regime of paleo-ice cover in northern central Baffin and evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of those conditions. A new means to identify paleo-glacier polythermal conditions from the measurement of terrestrial in situ cosmogenic nuclides (TCN) in till was developed to test the assertion that glacial erosion and till production are partially controlled by the thermal regime at the base of a glacier. Concentrations of cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al in 19 till samples from north central Baffin Island reflect the spatial pattern of areas classified as warm-based or cold-based (end member) systems. An ice sheet simulation of bed conditions produces the same pattern. The 26Al/ 10Be ratio is also used to confirm the long cold-based ice burial histories of surfaces that have not been significantly eroded. The data suggest that till and regolith near the current terminus of the Oliver Glacier preserve a record of >3 Ma of continuous glacial cover. In three localities resembling intermediate cases (i.e., where field observations yield conflicting interpretations of basal thermal regime), the TCN concentrations and 26Al/ 10Be reveal that the surface experienced a combination of cold-based ice burial and glacial erosion. When coupled with a high-resolution ice sheet model, the 10Be concentrations in till provide a more robust means of establishing the temporal and spatial variability in glacial erosion, and can be an important new tool for mineral exploration in glaciated terrain.

Investigating the mechanisms leading to the deglaciation of past continental northern hemisphere ice sheets with the CLIMBER–GREMLINS coupled model

A coupling procedure between a climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2.3) and a 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model (GREMLINS) has been elaborated. The resulting coupled model describes the evolution of atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere and their mutual interactions. It is used to perform several simulations of the Last Deglaciation period to identify the physical mechanisms at the origin of the deglaciation process. Our baseline experiment, forced by insolation and atmospheric CO 2, produces almost complete deglaciation of past northern hemisphere continental ice sheets, although ice remains over the Cordilleran region at the end of the simulation and also in Alaska and Eastern Siberia. Results clearly demonstrate that, in this study, the melting of the North American ice sheet is critically dependent on the deglaciation of Fennoscandia through processes involving switches of the thermohaline circulation from a glacial mode to a modern one and associated warming of the northern hemisphere. A set of sensitivity experiments has been carried out to test the relative importance of both forcing factors and internal processes in the deglaciation mechanism. It appears that the deglaciation is primarily driven by insolation. However, the atmospheric CO 2 modulates the timing of the melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and results relative to Laurentide illustrate the existence of threshold CO 2 values, that can be translated in terms of critical temperature, below which the deglaciation is impeded. Finally, we show that the beginning of the deglaciation process of the Laurentide ice sheet may be influenced by the time at which the shift of the thermohaline circulation from one mode to the other occurs.

Influence of ice rheology and dust content on the dynamics of the north-polar cap of Mars

The evolution and dynamics of the north-polar cap (residual-ice-cap/layered-deposits complex) of Mars is simulated with a thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We consider a scenario with ice-free initial conditions at 5 Ma before present due to the large obliquities which prevailed prior to this time. The north-polar cap is then built up to its present shape, driven by a parameterized climate forcing (surface temperature, surface mass balance) based on the obliquity and eccentricity history. The effects of different ice rheologies and different dust contents are investigated. It is found that the build-up scenarios require an accumulation rate of approximately 0.15–0.2 mm a −1 at present. The topography evolution is essentially independent of the ice dynamics due to the slow ice flow. Owing to the uncertainties associated with the ice rheology and the dust content, flow velocities can only be predicted within a range of two orders of magnitude. Likely present values are of the order of 0.1–1 mm a −1, and a strong variation over the climatic cycles is found. For all cases, computed basal temperatures are far below pressure melting.

Basal and thermal control mechanisms of the Ragnhild glaciers, East Antarctica

AbstractThe Ragnhild glaciers are three enhanced-flow features situated between the Sør Rondane and Yamato Mountains in eastern Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. We investigate the glaciological mechanisms controlling their existence and behavior, using a three-dimensional numerical thermomechanical ice-sheet model including higher-order stress gradients. This model is further extended with a steady-state model of subglacial water flow, based on the hydraulic potential gradient. Both static and dynamic simulations are capable of reproducing the enhanced ice-flow features. Although basal topography is responsible for the existence of the flow pattern, thermomechanical effects and basal sliding seem to locally soften and lubricate the ice in the main trunks. Lateral drag is a contributing factor in balancing the driving stress, as shear margins can be traced over a distance of hundreds of kilometers along west Ragnhild glacier. Different basal sliding scenarios show that central Ragnhild glacier stagnates as west Ragnhild glacier accelerates and progressively drains the whole catchment area by ice and water piracy.

Numerical modeling investigations of the subglacial conditions of the southern Laurentide ice sheet

AbstractSub- and proglacial bed conditions influence advance and retreat of an ice sheet. The existence and distribution of frozen ground is of major importance for better understanding of ice-flow dynamics and landform formation. The southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) was dominated by the presence of relatively thin ice lobes that seem to have been very sensitive to external and internal physical conditions. Their extent and dynamics were highly influenced by the interaction of subglacial and proglacial conditions. A three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model was coupled with a model for the thermal regime in the upper Earth crust. The model has been applied to the LIS in order to investigate the spatial distribution of thermal conditions at the bed. The evolution of the whole LIS was modeled for the last glacial cycle, with primary attention on correct reconstruction of the southern margin. Our results show extensive temporal and spatial frozen ground conditions. Only a slow degradation of permafrost under the ice was found. We conclude that there are significant interactions between the ice sheet and the underlying frozen ground and that these influence both ice dynamics and landform development.

Sensitivity of Northern Hemispheric continental ice sheets to tropical SST during deglaciation

A thermomechanical ice sheet model (ISM) is used to investigate the sensitivity of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations during deglaciation. The ISM is driven by surface temperature and precipitation fields from three different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). For each AGCM, the responses in temperature and precipitation over the ice sheets nearly compensate, such that ice sheet mass balance is not strongly sensitive to tropical SST boundary conditions. It was also found that there is significant variation in the response of the ISM to the different AGCM output fields.

Influence of subglacial Vostok lake on the regional ice dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet: a model study

AbstractWe applied a newly developed three-dimensional, time-dependent, thermomechanical icesheet model including higher-order stress gradients, to simulate the ice flow across subglacial Vostok lake, East Antarctica. Simulations of both ‘lake’ and ‘no lake’ conditions (by treating the ice/lake interface as a stress-free surface, similar to an ice shelf) demonstrate the effects of the subglacial lake, such as pronounced surface flattening and ice-flow turning, on the overall ice dynamics in the vicinity, although subglacial lake dynamics are not treated explicitly. When buoyancy forces and hydrostatic equilibrium of the ice above the lake are taken into account, the along-lake surface slope is preserved and the ice-flow pattern is in accord with sparse observations. Model experiments point to a local ice speed-up in the northern part of the lake, which can be associated with the onset of an enhanced ice-flow feature, more precisely the onset of the Totten Glacier catchment.

Subglacial erosion and englacial sediment transport modelled for North American ice sheets

Reconstructions of North American glacial history have either been based on interpretation of the geologic record or on numerical models of continental ice dynamics. Because such models make no explicit reference to the geological products of glaciation, the full potential of a combined approach has not been realized. We present the results of a process-based model of sediment production, entrainment, transport and deposition that represents a first step toward uniting these two lines of investigation. In this model basal-ice processes are dependent on ice sheet geometry, hydrology and dynamics. A three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model yields the ice geometry, flow and thermal conditions that are used by a model of subglacial hydrology; together these drive the basal process model. Comparisons of simulation results with mapped debris distributions of the Hudson Bay Paleozoic carbonates and of the distinctive Dubawnt Group are used to test the validity of the transport model. Dispersion of debris radially out of Hudson Bay is greatly overestimated by the model, and dispersion toward the bay equally underestimated. This is because the modelled ice sheet has a single dome over Hudson Bay at glacial maxima, including Last Glacial Maximum, rather than a saddle separating ice domes over Quebec-Labrador and Keewatin. Estimated rates of glacial erosion for the Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets are compared against those predicted by the model. The model underestimates these rates because it underestimates the vigour of the quarrying process.

A new three‐dimensional higher‐order thermomechanical ice sheet model: Basic sensitivity, ice stream development, and ice flow across subglacial lakes

A new three‐dimensional thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model is developed. Contrary to the majority of three‐dimensional ice sheet models (shallow ice approximation), higher‐order stress gradients (longitudinal and transverse) are accounted for in the force balance equations. The horizontal velocity field is determined from the force balance equations in their “derivative form” (elliptical equation) using the method presented by Pattyn [2000, 2002a]. The model is solved on a regular grid in the horizontal and an irregular grid in the vertical and is numerically stable. Basic experiments include the European Ice Sheet Modeling Initiative (EISMINT) benchmarks for large‐scale ice sheet models and a comparison with the Saito‐Blatter ice sheet model including higher‐order stress gradients [Saito et al., 2003]. Detailed calculations of ice flow over three‐dimensional bedrock perturbations showed the validity of the higher‐order solution. The model is capable of simulating the evolution of an ice stream within the ice sheet and shows important aspects of observed ice stream features, such as the surface flattening and the importance of side drag. The simulation of the ice flow over a subglacial lake results in a flattening of the surface, a local velocity increase over the lake, and a deviation of the ice flow from the main flow direction, features which are also observed at Lake Vostok, Antarctica.

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate changes in the 21st century by interactive coupling of an AOGCM with a thermomechanical ice-sheet model

AbstractWe present results from a greenhouse warming experiment obtained from an atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice general circulation model that is interactively coupled with a three-dimensional model of the Greenland ice sheet. the experiment covers the period 1970–2099 and is driven by the mid-range Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRESB2 scenario. the Greenland model is a thermomechanical high-resolution (20 km) model coupled with a viscoelastic bedrock model. the melt-and-runoff model is based on the positive degree-day method and includes meltwater retention in the snowpack and the formation of superimposed ice. the atmospheric–oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM) is a coarse-resolution model without flux correction based on the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (Paris) LMD 5.3 atmospheric model coupled with a primitive-equation, free-surface oceanic component incorporating sea ice (coupled large-scale ice–ocean (CLIO)). By 2100, average Greenland annual temperature is found to rise by about 4.5˚C and mean precipitation by about 35%. the total fresh-water flux approximately doubles over this period due to increased runoff from the ice sheet and the ice-free land, but the calving rate is found to decrease by 25%. the ice sheet shrinks equivalent to 4 cm of sea-level rise. the contribution from the background evolution is not more than 5% of the total predicted sea-level rise. We did not find significant changes in the patterns of climate change over the North Atlantic region compared with a climate-change run without Greenland fresh-water feedback.

Simulations of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet retreat:: sensitivity to physical mechanisms involved during the Last Deglaciation

A 3-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of the geometry of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Last Deglaciation. The ice-sheet model is forced by a time-evolving climatology provided by the linear interpolation through time of climate snapshots simulated by the LMD5.3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) at different periods of the Last Deglaciation (21, 15, 9, 6 and 0 kyr BP). The AGCM is driven by insolation, atmospheric CO 2 content, ice-sheet configuration and sea surface temperatures. Although our approach is able to produce the complete continental ice retreat, our simulated deglaciation presents a phase-lag with reconstructions based on observational evidences. This suggests that physical mechanisms related to climate forcing and/or ice-sheet internal dynamics are not properly represented. The influence of millennial-scale forcing, feedback mechanisms between ice-sheet elevation and surface mass balance and parameterization of the ice flow is also tested through a set of sensitivity experiments. The rapid variability has a strong impact on the evolution of the ice volume because of nonlinear effects in temperature-mass balance relationships. Fennoscandia appears to be strongly sensitive to the small-scale ice-sheet instability. Both ice sheets are to some extent sensitive to an increased basal sliding.

A model computation of the temporal changes of surface gravity and geoidal signal induced by the evolving Greenland ice sheet

This paper deals with present-day gravity changes in response to the evolving Greenland ice sheet. We present a detailed computation from a 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model that is interactively coupled with a self-gravitating spherical viscoelastic bedrock model. The coupled model is run over the last two glacial cycles to yield the loading evolution over time. Based on both the ice sheet's long-term history and its modern evolution averaged over the last 200 years, results are presented of the absolute gravity trend that would arise from a ground survey and of the corresponding geoid rate of change a satellite would see from space. The main results yield ground absolute gravity trends of the order of ±1 µgal yr−1 over the ice-free areas and total geoid changes in the range between −0.1 and +0.3 mm yr−1. These estimates could help to design future measurement campaigns by revealing areas of strong signal and/or specific patterns, although there are uncertainties associated with the parameters adopted for the Earth's rheology and aspects of the ice sheet model. Given the instrumental accuracy of a particular surveying method, these theoretical trends could also be useful to assess the required duration of a measurement campaign. According to our results, the present-day gravitational signal is dominated by the response to past loading changes rather than current mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet. We finally discuss the potential of inferring the present-day evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from the geoid rate of change measured by the future geodetic GRACE mission. We find that despite the anticipated high-quality data from satellites, such a method is compromised by the uncertainties in the earth model, the dominance of isostatic recovery on the current bedrock signal, and other inaccuracies inherent to the method itself.