Real Options Theory Research Articles

Hybrid offshore wind projects. Social desirability vs. incentives to invest

To unlock the full potential of offshore wind requires investment in a more integrated offshore grid infrastructure combining generation and interconnection between countries in so-called hybrid projects. Taking the perspective of a social planner, these projects may result in more efficient allocation of scarce resources. Alas, the distribution of this welfare gain may result in disagreement on what grid design is the most attractive, what markets should be connected and whether and when to invest. To examine these dilemmas, we apply real options theory to investments projects with different grid design and market characteristics. We compare the incentives to invest in a) only the wind farm and b) both the wind farm and the grid infrastructure, assuming the project value of the last alternative can serve as a proxy for social welfare. Solutions are derived using a simulation approach called least squares Monte Carlo method. We find: 1) Non-stationary stochastic prices and/or decreasing costs may make it socially optimal as well as commercially beneficial to postpone even profitable investments. 2) Connecting markets is socially desirable but may reduce the offshore wind investor's project value. 3) Connecting markets with different characteristics is socially desirable but reduce the offshore wind investors' project value.

Exploring the Usefulness of Real Options Theory for Foreign Affiliate Divestments: Real Abandonment Options’ Applications

Scholars propose that future research on real options theory should shift attention away from option buying during the first investment stage and toward option execution after investment. Researchers maintain that it would be interesting to explore the circumstances under which investors decide to withdraw their investments, thereby exercising the option to abandon their investments. The present research seeks to fill the gap in the literature and investigate the applicability of real options theory when an organization enhances sustainability policies while focusing on disciplined capital allocation through exit strategies. With case study data on Natura &Co’s divestment strategy for the Body Shop in November 2023, a real options analysis revealed the method’s practical advantages and disadvantages. This paper investigates real options theory in the context of the divestments of foreign affiliates, providing unique viewpoints and enhancing the theory beyond previous knowledge while also increasing our understanding of the divestiture phenomenon. This study concludes with a review of this paper’s theoretical contributions to real options theory, the managerial and practical/social implications of real options applications in general, and the valuation methods of abandonment options in particular, shedding light on the potential of future research.

The impact of country level investor protection on economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment link

AbstractWe examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and corporate investment in a global setting based on the real options theory and the agency theory. Using a sample of 44,610 firms from 28 countries, we find that the negative relationship between EPU and investment is more pronounced in the countries with stronger investor protection. In the countries with stronger investor protection, the negative impact of EPU on firms' capital investment is significantly stronger for the firms with more irreversible investment. Further evidence shows that the reduction of investment is mainly from overinvestment firms in the countries with stronger investor protection. Our evidence suggests country level investor protection can act as effective governance mechanisms that mitigate agency problems when firms are facing uncertainty.

Impact assessment of the residual lifespan of coal-fired power plants on the investment risk of carbon capture and storage retrofit

This research constructs an assessment model for carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofit of coal-fired power plants (CFPP) by adopting the real option theory. Due to the prohibitive costs associated with retrofitting and insufficient residual lifespan of CFPP, CCS projects may fail to recoup their investment before units are decommissioned. The key contribution of this paper is that it investigates the impact of the residual lifespan of the units on the failure rate of the retrofit investment in addition to the optimal timing of the unit's CCS retrofit. Considering different installed capacities, utilization hours, clean energy subsidy and carbon trading mechanism, this study sets up seven scenarios to assess the impact of different investment environments on the value of project investment. In terms of sensitivity analysis, the residual lifespan of the unit, its interaction with carbon price, carbon price volatility, technological advancement rate, and subsidy level are examined for their impacts on the project investment risk. The findings suggest that the critical period for determining the long-term success of most coal-fired unit retrofits may be present, and more supportive policies need to be examined to facilitate the green transformation and upgrading of coal-fired units.

Investment decision analysis of shipping desulfurization project based on a fuzzy real option approach

ABSTRACT This study addresses shipping companies’ compliance with the International Maritime Organization’s 2020 sulfur emission limits, providing guidance for investment decisions in desulfurization projects. The paper uses a novel RCFM model, integrating real option theory (R), shipping cycle theory (C), fuzzy set theory (F), and Monte Carlo simulation (M). Key findings are: (1) During high oil price volatility, traditional binary tree models show computational distortions corrected by Monte Carlo simulation, whereas in lower volatility, the fuzzy binary tree model offers reliable investment intervals. (2) Investment in desulfurization depends on remaining vessel life and fuel price differences. For example, during the recovery period, for vessels with a remaining life of less than 5 years, investing in a desulfurizer is profitable if the fuel price difference exceeds $550/t and using low-sulfur fuel is advisable if below $400/t. For vessels of remaining life of 5-9 years, invest in a desulfurizer if the difference exceeds $500/t and use low-sulfur fuel if below $300/t. For over 9 years, invest in a desulfurizer if the difference exceeds $450/t and use low-sulfur fuel if below $200/t.

Heterogeneous effect of economic policy uncertainty and firm financial performance: Empirical evidence from India

AbstractGlobally, high levels of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) have revamped the debate about its impact on different economic parameters of firms. In this regard, the literature exhibits three gaps. First, the effect of EPU on firm financial performance in an emerging economy context. Second, whether the influence of EPU on firm performance is asymmetric? Lastly, the moderating role of leverage in the relationship between EPU and firm performance. This paper fills all three gaps using the real options theory and investment irreversibility theory for India's NIFTY 100 firms over the period 2010–2019. The study applies several panel data econometrics models suitable to obtain comprehensive and robust results. Specifically, findings from the two‐step system GMM confirm that EPU negatively influences financial performance, which is significant for both accounting (return on assets, return on equity, net profit margin) and market (Tobin's Q) based measures. Moreover, the results of panel quantile regression reveal considerable heterogeneity in the EPU‐financial performance relationship. Further, higher levels of EPU appear to have unfavorable effects on excessively indebted firms. Overall, the study recommends that governments need to be alerted to the fact that mitigating EPU is crucial for promoting sustainable firm financial performance.

How do financial constraints and market competition affect innovations: Evidence from Vietnam

This study delves into the effects of market competition and financial constraints on innovation within a transitional market. We implemented the Two Stage Least Squares regression to analyze a sample comprising 492 listed firms in Vietnam from 2008 to 2020. Our findings unveil an inverse U-shaped relationship between market competition and R&D intensity. Secondly, our study highlights the significant negative impact of financial constraints on R&D intensity. Thirdly, our research demonstrates the robustness of the nonlinearity of competition within small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Our findings are consistent with agency theory, real options theory, and existing literature. Finally, our study offers practical implications for managers and policymakers aiming to foster innovation in developing countries, particularly amidst the digital transformation era.

The pure benefit of risk in production: real options in general equilibrium

An increase in the riskiness of a technology will raise economy-wide expected output: large productivity realizations lead to gains while small realizations are mitigated by using alternative technologies. Some usage of even the riskiest technologies can therefore bring Pareto improvements. The observed expected output of risky technologies can nevertheless be less than that of safer technologies: empirical estimates of expected output are therefore a poor measure of efficiency. Firms will adopt the efficient riskier technologies when markets are competitive, contrary to the view that innovation requires a monopoly reward. These results require a suitable definition of risk for general equilibrium models and a refinement of competitive equilibrium that allows for information discovery. The efficiency gain of increases in risk is related to real options theories of investment but applies even to single-period economies.

Tourism digital transformation and future supply chain competition: an integrated perspective on real options theory and digital competencies

PurposeThis study analyzes how digital technologies collaboration, and technological capabilities affect tourism products' advantage and supply chain resilience via virtual integration and customer service capabilities.Design/methodology/approachTo achieve the goals of this study, a digital transformation model was formulated based on the real option theory (ROT) and digital competencies perspective. Data were collected from travel agencies in Taiwan. This study uses the partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technique to analyze the research model, and 384 samples were collected from travel agencies for analysis.FindingsThe research results point out that digital technology collaboration and technical capabilities affect virtual integration and customer service capabilities; customer service capabilities should also be regarded as key influencing variables to improve tourism product advantages and supply chain flexibility.Originality/valueThis study shares a unique perspective on the digital transformation model, which includes antecedents, mediators and moderators, to construct the critical effects for analyzing the tourism products' advantage and supply chain resilience.

Embracing certainty in uncertain times: Macroeconomic uncertainty, third‐party assurance, and CSR performance

AbstractOur study investigates whether macro‐level uncertainty on the future economic prospects, referred to as macroeconomic uncertainty, affects corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance. Two competing theories, namely, the real options theory and the risk management theory, offer different perspectives on whether firms would increase or decrease their CSR performance in response to macroeconomic uncertainty. Existing literature documents inconclusive empirical evidence about this matter. Employing a novel and unbiased measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and drawing upon data from U.S. firms between 2006 and 2017, we find that CSR performance is negatively associated with macroeconomic uncertainty. We also document that the negative association between macro uncertainty and CSR performance is attenuated for firms that have their CSR reports independently assured by third‐party experts. The results are robust to controlling for firm characteristics, an alternative measure of macroeconomic uncertainty, and an alternative sample period excluding the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis.

Analysis and Value Evaluation of Carbon Emission Reduction Strategies in the Power Industry Based on Real Options Theory and XGboost Algorithm

China, as the world’s largest energy consumer, has made significant commitments regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In order to realize the goal of “dual carbon,” this paper proposes a method for analyzing and evaluating carbon emission reduction strategies in the electric power industry based on physical options theory and the XGBoost algorithm. Starting from the study of carbon emission reduction strategies for power enterprises, the model is oriented towards investment in energy-saving and emission reduction technologies for thermal power, aiming to construct the least-cost carbon emission reduction strategy. Additionally, it comprehensively considers changes in carbon trading mechanisms and the uncertainty of investment budgets for emission reduction, integrating machine learning algorithms to assess the emission reduction value of enterprises during the research period. The aim is to provide theoretical guidance and strategic suggestions for existing thermal power enterprises to cope with the implementation of carbon trading mechanisms. Finally, through case analysis, the effectiveness of this method is validated.

Valuation of Patent-Based Collaborative Synergies under Strategic Settings with Multiple Uncertainties: Rainbow Real Options Approach

Recent years have seen increasing initiatives involving more applications of real options to value the strategizing process. These initiatives, referred to as Real Option Theory (ROT), imply greater inclusiveness of simple and advanced real options in strategizing processes. While substantial theoretical groundwork on ROT has been laid in corporate finance, and both qualitative and quantitative studies on ROT in business management journals are appearing on an increasing basis, there remain significant opportunities for more research on strategic synergism in patent-based acquisitions. In this vein, the current paper aims to explore a rainbow real options application (real options that are exposed to two sources of uncertainty) to measure patent-based collaborative synergies in high-tech mergers and acquisitions. Having conducted the deviant case study of ZOOX start-up’s acquisition by Amazon.com in 2020, this paper justifies the proposition of the employability of rainbow real options for the valuation of network and relational synergies in highly risky patent-based acquisitions with multiple uncertainties.

Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment

The real option value theory posits that non-convex adjustment costs pertaining to a firm's input are central to comprehending the consequences of increased uncertainty. This paper leverages the diversity observed at both sectoral and country levels in the degree of irreversibility associated with hiring and firing, a critical factor generating what is commonly referred to as “wait-and-see” behavior in times of heightened uncertainty. Our empirical findings reveal two key insights. First, in alignment with the concept of second-moment shocks, uncertainty shocks predominantly influence the labor market through the extensive margin rather than the intensive margin. Second, the effects of uncertainty shocks exhibit pronounced heterogeneity across countries and industries, and the adverse employment effects (extensive margin) are amplified in a country with strict employment protection or in an industry characterized by a higher natural layoff rate, consistent with the real option theory.

Uncertainty Measures and Business Cycles: Evidence From the US

Most of the macro-literature on uncertainty has focused on macro-uncertainty caused by real activity as a source of economic fluctuations. Economic uncertainty reduces total demand in the economy via a conventional channel that is associated with real option theory. Given the findings of the existing literature, financial uncertainty other than macroeconomic uncertainty matters more for business cycle fluctuations. This study seeks to answer the following questions: Is uncertainty the primary cause of the business cycle’s fluctuations? Alternatively, does it matter what kind of uncertainty exists? The research utilized the generalized linear model (GLM) and the Bayesian generalized linear model (BGLM) to analyze a dataset covering the time from July 1960 to April 2015 in the United States. Elevated levels of macroeconomic uncertainty, akin to real uncertainty, and economic policy uncertainty, as measured by news sources, demonstrate a counter-cyclical pattern in relation to business cycles. Low levels of uncertainty have a positive impact on business cycles, leading to an increase in industrial production. Conversely, high levels of uncertainty have a negative effect on business cycles, causing a decline in industrial output. We are of the opinion that high levels of macroeconomic uncertainty have a ripple effect on the entire economy, which may stifle investments, reduce consumption, and create unemployment, which is likely to influence labor participation. JEL Classification: D81, E23, E32, E44, G14.

The effect of regime change on entrepreneurship: A real options approach with evidence from US gubernatorial elections

Although political turnover is said to be a healthy component of the business environment, the literature is equivocal about the effects of regime change on early-stage entrepreneurial activity. I present incumbent displacement—the electoral defeat of an incumbent political party's candidate—as a source of regime change, and I analyze how this affects business formation through the lens of real options theory. I test my theory using US gubernatorial elections from 2004 to 2022, leveraging a Regression Discontinuity design to compare changes in business formation trends following elections where a challenger party candidate wins or loses by a close margin. I find that regime change reduces venture creation activity for growth-oriented ventures specifically. I also find evidence of a partial rebound in subsequent months—suggestive that some entrepreneurs delay entry while others permanently abandon their ventures.

Aligning restaurants and artificial intelligence computing of food delivery service with product development

PurposeThis study aims to analyze how restaurants' collaboration with mobile food delivery applications (MFDAs) affects product development efficiency and argues that technological capabilities moderate relational ties impact the joint decision-making and development efficiency of restaurant products.Design/methodology/approachA product development efficiency model was formulated using a resource-based view and real options theory. In all, 472 samples were collected from restaurants collaborating with MFDAs, and partial least squares structural equation modeling was applied to the proposed model.FindingsThe findings of this study indicate three factors are critical to the product development efficiency between restaurants and MFDAs; restaurants must develop a strong connection with the latter to ensure meals are consistently served promptly. Developers of MFDAs should use artificial intelligence analysis, such as order records of different genders and ages or various consumption attributes, to collaborate with restaurants.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the few that considers the role of MFDAs as a product strategy for restaurant operations, and the factors the authors found can enhance restaurants’ product development efficiency. Second, as strategic artificial intelligence adaptation changes, collaborating firms and restaurants use such applications for product development to help consumers identify products.

Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory

La terminación anticipada es un mecanismo de compensación contractual implementado en proyectos de infraestructura de app, donde los inversionistas privados tienen derecho a abandonar el proyecto para mitigar riesgos como el de demanda. En este artículo utilizamos la teoría de opciones reales para valorar la terminación anticipada como una opción de abandono de un proyecto, en el que el riesgo de demanda y la tarifa de compensación se modelan asumiendo procesos estocásticos correlacionados. Así, se implementa el modelo de valo­ración de opciones con una solución analítica y se comparan los resultados con la técnica de simulación Monte Carlo. Los resultados confirman los beneficios que el mecanismo contractual ofrece a los inversionistas privados para mitigar riesgos y mejorar el valor del proyecto.

A model for quantification of environmental risk in mining ventures

The premature termination of industrial projects, often triggered by insufficient revenue generation to cover liabilities, poses a significant challenge in project evaluation. Although the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) method remains widely used, its inability to account for project failure probabilities can lead to resource misallocation. This study aims to address this limitation by applying real options theory to assess the risk of premature abandonment within the context of a mineral extraction project. In this proposed system, fluctuations in environmental remediation costs are modelled by considering the cumulative probabilities of cost increases or decreases at each time step. The simulated project value reflects the cumulative activities required for mine closure, where each ton of extracted ore generates an environmental liability demanding remediation. Through the application of this system, the study demonstrates its effectiveness in identifying an escalating probability of project closure over time. Particularly, the findings reveal the existence of a critical threshold date. Beyond this date, any operational suspension exceeding one year renders project closure the economically optimal choice. This closure encompasses all necessary environmental restoration activities. By integrating real options theory into project evaluation, this study offers a more comprehensive approach to assessing the risk of premature project abandonment in mineral extraction projects. Through the consideration of fluctuating environmental remediation costs and the cumulative probabilities of project closure, it provides valuable insights for decision-making in project management and resource allocation. The trigger curve generated allowed for the identification of the viability threshold of the venture. Identifying the threshold to initiate the mining closure project.

Exploring the efficacy of renewable energy support policies in uncertain environments: A real options analysis

This paper explores the impact of various renewable energy support policies on investor behavior and environmental value. Specifically, the study investigates the effects of fixed feed-in tariff (FIT) and tradable green certificates (TGC) on investor’s flexibility and environmental value under conditions of uncertainty. Real options theory and envelope theory are employed to analyze these uncertainties, with an empirical analysis of China’s electricity market serving as the basis for the study. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the use of TGC can lead to higher environmental value for utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) projects in China. For onshore wind, substituting FIT with TGC may be more appropriate. However, for offshore wind projects, FIT may be more suitable due to their increased vulnerability to uncertainty. Additionally, the study finds that greater support is required for projects deployed under FIT policies.

Inland port and waterway capacity expansion model under demand uncertainty

We address the inland port and waterway capacity expansion (IPWCE) problem under demand uncertainty, the purpose of which is to determine the capacity expansion scales and timings for inland ports and waterways. To achieve this goal, we first build an inland waterway multimodal network (IWMN) that consists of physical and operational multimodal networks. Second, by viewing the IPWCE problem under deterministic demand as a subproblem of the IPWCE problem under uncertain demand, we develop a model for IPWCE under deterministic demand (IPWCEDD) based on bilevel programming and a model for IPWCE under uncertain demand (IPWCEUD) based on network real options theory. Third, we propose a sensitivity analysis-based descent search (SADS) algorithm to solve the IPWCEDD model. Moreover, in accordance with the optimal solutions of the IPWCEDD model, we then develop a least squares Monte Carlo simulation (LSM) method to solve the IPWCEUD model. Finally, we verify the effectiveness, efficiency, and applicability of the proposed models as well as the solution algorithm and methods through experiments of two different scales. The results of the small-scale experiment indicate that the proposed SADS algorithm and LSM method can solve the models optimally within the time limit. The large-scale experiment, which is conducted on the Yangtze River IWMN of mainland China, shows that capacity expansions at Chongqing Port, Nanjing Port, and Wuhan Port and on the waterway links connecting these ports can yield the maximum increased option values for the IPWCE problem under demand uncertainty. Moreover, the corresponding optimal expansion timing for implementing the capacity expansion plan is in the second year. Our research outcomes can help to guide IPWCE under demand uncertainty and further establish a high-quality inland river transport system.