A model for quantification of environmental risk in mining ventures

Abstract

The premature termination of industrial projects, often triggered by insufficient revenue generation to cover liabilities, poses a significant challenge in project evaluation. Although the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) method remains widely used, its inability to account for project failure probabilities can lead to resource misallocation. This study aims to address this limitation by applying real options theory to assess the risk of premature abandonment within the context of a mineral extraction project. In this proposed system, fluctuations in environmental remediation costs are modelled by considering the cumulative probabilities of cost increases or decreases at each time step. The simulated project value reflects the cumulative activities required for mine closure, where each ton of extracted ore generates an environmental liability demanding remediation. Through the application of this system, the study demonstrates its effectiveness in identifying an escalating probability of project closure over time. Particularly, the findings reveal the existence of a critical threshold date. Beyond this date, any operational suspension exceeding one year renders project closure the economically optimal choice. This closure encompasses all necessary environmental restoration activities. By integrating real options theory into project evaluation, this study offers a more comprehensive approach to assessing the risk of premature project abandonment in mineral extraction projects. Through the consideration of fluctuating environmental remediation costs and the cumulative probabilities of project closure, it provides valuable insights for decision-making in project management and resource allocation. The trigger curve generated allowed for the identification of the viability threshold of the venture. Identifying the threshold to initiate the mining closure project.