Selection Theory Research Articles

Similar trajectories of psychological states predict marital satisfaction

Abstract Modern mate selection theories suggest that people are more likely to marry someone similar to themselves in terms of numerous attributes. Recent research has demonstrated a positive relationship between marital satisfaction and inter-subject correlation (ISC) of neural responses while viewing movies in married couples. Nevertheless, conventional ISC methods solely capture information about similarity in the temporal evolution of region-averaged neural responses, disregarding nuanced spatially distributed response topographies. Here, we integrated ISC and multi-voxel pattern (MVP) analysis to capitalize inter-subject trajectory similarity (ISTS) of MVP. We demonstrated that married couples showed significantly higher ISTS than randomly selected pairs, during movie viewing and resting-state. The ISTS was particularly positively associated with marital satisfaction in married couples while viewing movies. In order to investigate latent “psychological states” characterized by relatively stable patterns of MVP, a hidden Markov model was used to segment the neural events in married couples during viewing movies. We found the ISTS within manually defined events was a strong predictor of marital satisfaction. These results suggest that married couples with high-level marital satisfaction may experience similar trajectories of mental states when exposed to a common marital-related stimulus, and extend our understanding of the neurobiological signatures of intimate relationship.

Sustaining life satisfaction and worthwhileness in older age: the role of diversity of social and leisure activity engagement

ABSTRACT Adapting to health changes helps sustain wellbeing in later life. Life satisfaction and worthwhileness of life are both monitored by the UK government; worthwhileness is under-researched. Motivated by Selection, Optimisation and Compensation theory, we investigated whether greater diversity of social and leisure activity engagement mediates relationships between self-assessed health and both life satisfaction and worthwhileness. To inform policy and practice, we also investigated whether mediation effects varied between different sub-groups of older people, including young-old vs older-old; retirees vs non-retirees and more vs less physically active. Structural Equation Modelling on a large sample of England-resident adults aged 50+ (n = 9,395) found greater diversity of social and leisure activity engagement partially mediated the total effect of self-assessed health on life satisfaction and worthwhileness. Mediation was greater for worthwhileness than for life satisfaction and greatest for retirees. These results suggest that encouraging older people to engage with more diverse types of social and leisure activity should be considered when designing policies and programmes to increase older peoples’ wellbeing. These findings add to the relatively sparse literature on correlates of the Office for National Statistics’ worthwhileness measure of personal wellbeing.

Exploring semantic expression disparities in intragenerational and intergenerational communication: A novel perspective on socioemotional selectivity theory.

The Socioemotional Selectivity Theory (SST) posits that older and younger adults have different life goals due to differences in perceived remaining lifetime. Younger adults focus more on future-oriented knowledge exploration and forming new friendships, while older adults prioritize present-focused emotional regulation and maintaining close relationships. While previous research has found these age differences manifest in autobiographical textual expressions, their presence in verbal communication remains unexplored. We recruited 36 older adults and 36 younger adults to form 12 younger adults-younger adults dyads, 12 older adults-older adults dyads, and 12 younger adults-older adults dyads engaging in three conversational scenarios. Analysis of communication transcripts using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count revealed that in intragenerational communication, older adults used more present-focused and family-related words, and fewer future-focused, negative emotion, and knowledge acquisition words compared to younger adults, aligning with SST predictions. However, in intergenerational communication, younger and older adults showed similar patterns in future-focused, cognitive, and family-related language use. This suggests that participants adjusted their goal orientations to accommodate each other, mitigating the age differences proposed by SST and partially supporting the Interpersonal Cognitive Consistency Model. These findings indicate that while SST explains semantic expressions in intragenerational communication, group dynamics toward verbal consistency play a more vital role in intergenerational communication. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

EMOTIONALLY MEANINGFUL GOALS IN LATE ADULTHOOD

Abstract Our perception of time greatly affects what kinds of goals we value and pursue. The socioemotional selectivity theory (SST; Carstensen, 1992; Carstensen et al., 1999) posits that people rearrange their goals in response to a limited future time perspective as they become older. Rather than investing in a limited and uncertain future, older adults will value and prioritize present-oriented emotionally meaningful goals over future-oriented goals. The SST literature thrived in the past three decades and emotionally meaningful goals were operationalized in various ways under different contexts. To better understand the changes in motivation when future time perspective becomes limited, we reviewed the empirical articles that formulated hypotheses according to the SST framework published since 1992. We identified different types of emotionally meaningful goals in the literature. The most prevalent type of emotionally meaningful goal in the literature is the pro-hedonic goal (preference towards positivity over negativity). Other types of emotionally meaningful goals include the pro-closeness goal (preference towards emotional closeness in social relationships), the prosocial and generativity goal (increased motivation to contribute to others), the social goal (increased importance in the social domain), the emotional goal (increased importance in the emotional domain), the self-maintenance goal (increased motivation for the intrinsic and self-concordant goal) and the meaningfulness goal (increased importance in meaningfulness). The empirical evidence of each goal will be reviewed and their relations to SST and a limited future time perspective will be discussed.

Modeling Diffusive Search by Non-Adaptive Sperm: Empirical and Computational Insights.

During fertilization, mammalian sperm undergo a winnowing selection process that reduces the candidate pool of potential fertilizers from ~106-1011 cells to 101-102 cells (depending on the species). Classical sperm competition theory addresses the positive or 'stabilizing' selection acting on sperm phenotypes within populations of organisms but does not strictly address the developmental consequences of sperm traits among individual organisms that are under purifying selection during fertilization. It is the latter that is of utmost concern for improving assisted reproductive technologies (ART) because 'low fitness' sperm may be inadvertently used for fertilization during interventions that rely heavily on artificial sperm selection, such as intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Importantly, some form of sperm selection is used in nearly all forms of ART (e.g., differential centrifugation, swim-up, or hyaluronan binding assays, etc.). To date, there is no unifying quantitative framework (i.e., theory of sperm selection) that synthesizes causal mechanisms of selection with observed natural variation in individual sperm traits. In this report, we reframe the physiological function of sperm as a collective diffusive search process and develop multi-scale computational models to explore the causal dynamics that constrain sperm 'fitness' during fertilization. Several experimentally useful concepts are developed, including a probabilistic measure of sperm 'fitness' as well as an information theoretic measure of the magnitude of sperm selection, each of which are assessed under systematic increases in microenvironmental selective pressure acting on sperm motility patterns.

La noción darwiniana de medio en la perspectiva de Georges Canguilhem

The statements that Georges Canguilhem made concerning the novelty implied in the Darwinian notion of environment are an example of the heuristic capacity of his way of understanding the history of concepts. In fact, what Canguilhem allows us to see is that the notion of environment im-plied in the theory of natural selection is a foreign and supervening element to the double filiation, physical and anthropogeographical, of the ways of thinking about the milieu that until then guided physiological studies and Nat-ural History itself.

Graph reduction techniques for instance selection: comparative and empirical study

The surge in data generation has prompted a shift to big data, challenging the notion that “more data equals better performance” due to processing and time constraints. In this evolving artificial intelligence and machine learning landscape, instance selection (IS) has become crucial for data reduction without compromising model quality. Traditional IS methods, though efficient, often struggle with large, complex datasets in data mining. This study evaluates graph reduction techniques, grounded in graph theory, as a novel approach for instance selection. The objective is to leverage the inherent structures of data represented as graphs to enhance the effectiveness of instance selection. We evaluated 35 graph reduction techniques across 29 classification datasets. These techniques were assessed based on various metrics, including accuracy, F1 score, reduction rate, and computational times. Graph reduction methods showed significant potential in maintaining data integrity while achieving substantial reductions. Top techniques achieved up to 99% reduction while maintaining or improving accuracy. For instance, the Multilevel sampling achieved an accuracy effectiveness score of 0.8555 with 99.16% reduction on large datasets, while Leiden sampling showed high effectiveness on smaller datasets (0.8034 accuracy, 97.87% reduction). Computational efficiency varied widely, with reduction times ranging from milliseconds to minutes. This research advances the theory of graph-based instance selection and offers practical application guidelines. Our findings indicate graph reduction methods effectively preserve data quality and boost processing efficiency in large, complex datasets, with some techniques achieving up to 160-fold speedups in model training at high reduction rates.

Application of Fuzzy Decision Theory in Multi Objective Logistics Distribution Center Site Selection

Application of Fuzzy Decision Theory in Multi Objective Logistics Distribution Center Site Selection

Interrelationships among age, time horizons, and uncertainty: emotional experiences and workplace learning

Abstract The present study examines interrelationships among age, time horizons, and uncertainty and how they influence preferences for work tasks. We tested hypotheses that were grounded in socioemotional selectivity theory about the role of uncertainty in age differences in work task preferences. The study included 213 participants who were full-time workers aged 25–76 years. Consistent with previous findings, both older ages and shorter occupational time horizons were associated with preferences for emotionally meaningful work tasks over career-advancing tasks. Uncertainty about work was unrelated to work preferences in younger and middle-aged workers, but work uncertainty in older workers was associated with a reduced motivation for emotionally meaningful work. These findings suggest that workplace uncertainty could potentially reduce age-related prosociality at work. Findings make theoretical and applied contributions to the understanding of age-diverse occupational settings.

Inclusive and Sustainable Supply Chain Strategies in Live E-Commerce: The Role of Influencer Marketing and Spillover Effects

Live e-commerce has proliferated as a new business model in recent years. Live-streaming channel selection strategies and behavioral decisions are critical considerations for retailers to enhance business performance by increasing engagement and profitability. This study introduces the spillover effect between influencer and self-live-streaming channels, offering new theoretical insights into sustainable supply chain management from multichannel retailing, game theory, and spillover effects for channel selection and pricing, optimizing dual-channel tactics for inclusive marketing, and challenging pricing and channel effectiveness beliefs. Hence, inclusive and sustainable business practices in live e-commerce have been examined, focusing on dual-digital-channel strategies involving influencer marketing and self-live-streaming. This paper investigates three digital supply chain structures for sustainability, which are based on influencer characteristics: the single digital channel (S), the dual-digital-channel structure without spillover effect (DN), and the dual-digital-channel structure with spillover effect (DS). This study employs Stackelberg game models to analyze behavioral, pricing, and channel preferences, and it also extends the model to offline channels. This study finds that (a) influencer effort affects influencer live-streaming pricing, which may not always be cheaper than self-streaming digital channels; (b) commission rates significantly impact influencer pricing strategies, leading retailers to use skimming and penetration pricing strategies when commission rates are low and high; and (c) retailers may develop influencer live-streaming channels if the cross-price coefficient is medium and low but prefer it when the coefficient and spillover impact are large. By analyzing how these digital channels contribute to societal sustainability through reduced environmental impact and enhanced social inclusion, this research highlights key marketing decisions that optimize business performance and social responsibility in the digital economy. It offers live e-commerce managers strategic channel selection, pricing, and sustainability advice and recommendations for future empirical validation to enhance practical applicability.

Enhancing Intergenerational Connections: Exploring the Benefits for Older Adults and College Students in a Telephonic Reassurance Program

Loneliness is well documented as a major, yet preventable, risk factor for well-being among older adults that was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly half of some countries’ older population experience loneliness, which significantly increases risks for dementia, heart disease, stroke, depression, anxiety, hospitalization, and even hastened death. Utilizing socioemotional selectivity theory, the current study addresses. the inverse relationship between aging and social outlet availability by providing empirical data on the benefits of intergenerational programming. Data from adult–college student dyads who participated in a telephone reassurance program focused on reminiscence guiding were analyzed to determine outcomes of participation. Qualitative analyses revealed the emergence of themes surrounding familial/friendship bonds and self-discovery among adult participants and a rejuvenated appreciation for the little things in life as well as a sense of purpose from meaningful contributions among college student participants. Results are discussed in terms of continued growth and development during late adulthood and professional and personal growth among students. The psychologically and emotionally meaningful nature of quality intergenerational programs provides a platform for the formation of unique relationships to offset fractured social outlets during later life, providing protections against loneliness and work to establish unique relationships between disparate groups who otherwise may never have crossed paths.

Decoding Age-Related Changes in Emotional Reactivity: The Importance of Distinguishing Positive and Negative Sensations

This study investigated age-related variations in emotional reactivity, focusing on the differentiation between positive and negative emotional sensations. Grounded in Socioemotional Selectivity Theory (SST), we hypothesized that older vs. younger adults would exhibit heightened valence and intensity in their emotional sensations, alongside increased co-occurrence of positive and negative sensations. We presented 100 negative, 100 neutral, and 100 positive images to 67 young adults and 72 older adults. Utilizing unipolar scales enabled a nuanced analysis of emotional reactivity. Our findings revealed that older vs. younger adults overall report: 1) more positive and negative sensations, with a predominance for positive sensations, particularly when faced with positive images; 2) more intense sensations, regardless of the valence of the images; 3) more complex emotional sensations, particularly when faced with negative images. Thus, our findings validated the key principles of SST and can be seen as a manifestation of an adaptive strategy developed in older adults to promote richer, more positive emotional experiences. However, the study’s broader implications are moderated by certain limitations. The experimental sample shows a gender imbalance, with a predominance of females and a lack of racial, ethnic and socio-economic diversity in older adults. In addition, the low- to medium-intensity emotional stimuli reflect only a narrow spectrum of everyday experiences. These constraints underscore the need for future research to encompass greater demographic inclusion and a wider range of emotional stimuli to ensure the applicability of our findings to more complex populations and emotional landscapes.

FST and genetic diversity in an island model with background selection.

Background selection, by which selection on deleterious alleles reduces diversity at linked neutral sites, influences patterns of total neutral diversity, πT, and genetic differentiation, FST, in structured populations. The theory of background selection may be split into two regimes: the background selection regime, where selection pressures are strong and mutation rates are sufficiently low such that deleterious alleles are at a deterministic mutation-selection balance, and the interference selection regime, where selection pressures are weak and mutation rates are sufficiently high that deleterious alleles accumulate and interfere with another, leading to selective interference. Previous work has quantified the effects of background selection on πT and FST only for deleterious alleles in the background selection regime. Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest that migration reduces the effects of background selection on FST, but this has not been fully explained. Here, we derive novel theory to predict the effects of migration on background selection experienced by a subpopulation and extend previous theory from the interference selection regime to make predictions in an island model. Using simulations, we show that this theory best predicts FST and πT. Moreover, we demonstrate that background selection may generate minimal increases in FST under sufficiently high migration rates, because migration reduces correlated effects on fitness over generations within subpopulations. However, we show that background selection may still cause substantial reductions in πT, particularly for metapopulations with a larger effective population size. Our work further extends the theory of background selection into structured populations, and suggests that background selection will minimally confound locus-to-locus FST scans.

Taking cues from ecological and evolutionary theories to expand the landscape of disgust.

Behavioural avoidance of parasites in the environment generates what is known as the 'landscape of disgust' (analogous to the predator-induced 'landscape of fear'). Despite the potential for improving our inference of host-parasite dynamics, three limitations of the landscape of disgust restrict the insight that is gained from current research: (i) many host-parasite systems will not be appropriate for invoking the landscape of disgust framework; (ii) existing research has primarily focused on immediate choices made by hosts on small scales, limiting predictive power, generalizability, and the value of the insight obtained; and (iii) relevant ecological and evolutionary theory has yet to be integrated into the framework, challenging our ability to interpret the landscape of disgust within the context of most host-parasite systems. In this review, we explore the specific requirements for implementing a landscape of disgust framework in empirical systems. We also propose greater integration of habitat selection and evolutionary theories, aiming to generate novel insight, by exploring how the landscape of disgust varies within and across generations, presenting opportunities for future research. Despite interest in the impacts of parasitism on animal movement and behaviour, many unanswered questions remain.

What's time got to do with it? Appreciation of time influences social goals and emotional well-being.

Socioemotional selectivity theory (SST) maintains that perceived constraints on time horizons motivate people to optimize emotionally meaningful experiences in the present, whereas expansive time horizons lead people to pursue goals that hold future utility. Theoretically, the prioritizing of goals about emotional meaning contributes to the relatively high levels of emotional well-being and mental health observed in older people. The present article provides an overview of SST and places it in historical context, noting the differences and similarities it shares with contemporaneous approaches. We briefly review support for core theoretical postulates and consider a recent set of empirical findings that speak against the role of perceived time on emotional well-being. We argue that existing survey measures of time horizons do not capture the increasing value and appreciation of remaining time posited in SST and describe the development of and evidence for a new Appreciation of Remaining Time scale. We conclude with a discussion about the need for theoretical precision in research and, more broadly, the need to consider explanations for age differences that extend beyond compensation for loss to fully understand socioemotional development in adulthood. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Longitudinal relationships between ideal body short-form video exposure, self-objectification, and preference for muscularity in a partner among Chinese young women

Cultivation theory suggests that exposure to ideal body images may influence women’s self-objectification and partner preferences. According to selective exposure theory, women who self-objectify and prefer muscularity may choose media that aligns with their interests, particularly media showcasing idealized bodies. This longitudinal study examined the reciprocal relationships between ideal body short-form video exposure, self-objectification, and preference for muscularity in a partner in women. A total of 215 Chinese women (Mage = 21.1, SD = 2.5, range = 19–30) completed measures of ideal body short-form video exposure, self-objectification, and preference for partner muscularity at baseline and at 6-month follow-up. Cross-lagged panel analyses were used to analyze the reciprocal relationships between variables. The results revealed that viewing thin-ideal female body short-form video was associated with decreased self-objectification six months later. Viewing muscular-ideal male body short-form videos was not significantly associated with preference for muscularity after six months. However, preference for muscularity was associated with increased viewing of muscular-ideal male body short-form video six months later. Self-objectification was associated with an increased preference for muscularity in a partner six months later. The findings partially support the media selectivity theory.

Effect of households’ members disability and serious illness on public health insurance subscription among urban refugees during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

BackgroundThe adverse selection theory speculates a high level of demand for health insurance by people with vulnerable health conditions. However, the COVID-19 pandemic changed the prevailing narratives and pattern of healthcare utilization in many African countries. This study estimated the effects of household member’s disability and presence of serious illness on the probability of National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) subscription with the average treatment effect (ATE) and average treatment effect on the treated (ATET).MethodsThe data were collected telephonically in 2020 using the sampling frame of the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR). The respondents were refugees with active phone numbers who were registered by the UNHCR in Nairobi, Mombasa and Nakuru cities. A total of 2,438 completed the surveys. The data were analysed with Treatment Effects Probit regression model using the regression adjustment estimator.ResultsThe results showed that 24.89% of the respondents had health insurance. Also, 3.28%, 1.39% and 2.46%, respectively suffered from physical, cognitive and sensory disability, while 8.28% had some form of serious illness. The Probit regression results showed that probability of being health insured significantly increased (p < 0.05) with membership of community-based organizations (CBO), asset index, possession of bank savings account, residence in Nairobi and household size, while residence in Nakuru reduced it. The ATE for physical and cognitive disabilities were significant (p < 0.05) with 0.1100 and 0.1816, respectively, while that for serious illness was 0.1046 (p < 0.01). The ATET for physical disability and serious illness were also significant (p < 0.05) with 0.1251 and 0.0996, respectively.ConclusionIt was concluded that efforts to facilitate NHIF subscriptions among the refugees should be channelled among people with disability and serious illness. In addition, there is the need to promote refugees’ welfare through employment that can induce formal savings and promote less reliance on informal borrowing. The operational mechanisms and differences in healthcare service distribution between the three cities should be considered along some salient interventions for health insurance subscription that are channelled through some CBOs.

Beyond chronological age: exploring how different future time perspective influences the health tourism intention

BackgroundThe burgeoning field of health tourism has garnered significant attention due to its integration of health and leisure, reflecting a growing consumer demand for wellness-oriented travel experiences. Based on the socioemotional selectivity theory, this study examines the relationship between future time perspective, health awareness, involvement, and health tourism intention. It aims to understand how different dimensions of future time perspective influence the intention to engage in health tourism, beyond the traditional chronological age.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted among individuals aged 16 years and above with normal cognitive function. Data was collected through online questionnaires distributed on popular Chinese social media platforms, WeChat and QQ. A total of 536 valid questionnaires were returned, with a validity rate of 91.47%. The study employed the structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the proposed hypotheses.ResultsThe effect of different dimensions of future time perspective on health tourism intention differed. Limited future time perspective (LFTP) positively influenced health tourism intention, while open-ended future time perspective (OFTP) did not have a significant effect on health tourism intention. Involvement and health awareness not only directly influence health tourism intention, but also mediate the relationship between future time perspective (OFTP and LFTP) and health tourism intention respectively. Moreover, there is a significant difference in the effect of LFTP on healthy tourism intention between different age groups.ConclusionsThe findings highlight the importance of considering subjective time perspectives in understanding health tourism intention. Health tourism companies should focus on strategies that enhance health awareness and consumer involvement to capitalize on the positive effects of health tourism intention. Additionally, the study suggests that marketing efforts should be tailored to address the specific needs and goals of individuals with different future time perspectives, thereby optimizing the appeal of health tourism products. Future research should explore these relationships across diverse populations and contexts to further refine the understanding of health tourism decision-making.

Multi-Borrowing Practices and Loan Repayment of Micro and Small Enterprises in Trade Sector in Meru County, Kenya

In Kenya, the increase in multi-borrowing and its effects on loan repayment is a growing concern for microfinance institutions. The general purpose of this research was to establish the effect of multi-borrowing on loan repayment among MSEs in Meru County. Specifically, the study aimed to determine how the number of loans borrowed, interest payable, and the financial literacy of borrowers influenced loan repayment within Meru County Microfinance. The research was anchored on information asymmetry, prospect theory, moral hazard, and adverse selection theories. The study targeted 6,000 MSE owners who were members of Meru County Microfinance, from which a sample of 200 borrowers was selected. A descriptive research design was employed to assess how multiple borrowings affected loan repayment. Cluster and random sampling methods were used to identify respondents across the seven branches of Meru County Microfinance. Primary data was collected using questionnaires, and analyzed by use of descriptive, correlational, and regression analysis techniques. Inferential analysis was conducted at a 0.05 significance threshold, utilizing the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 28 for data analysis. Ethical standards were strictly observed throughout the study. The study revealed that the number of loans borrowed had a significant impact on loan repayment among MSEs in Meru County. Effective management of borrowing was crucial for better repayment outcomes. Interest payable was identified as a critical factor affecting loan repayment; enterprises with well-managed credit risk practices, including the adjustment of interest rates and repayment schedules, exhibited better repayment performance. Furthermore, the level of financial literacy positively influenced loan repayment, with higher financial literacy levels leading to improved loan management and repayment behaviors. The study concluded that the number of loans borrowed significantly affected loan repayment, although its impact was less direct compared to other factors. Interest payable had the most substantial effect on loan repayment, with effective credit risk management correlating strongly with better repayment outcomes. Additionally, a higher level of financial literacy was found to significantly enhance loan repayment. Based on the findings, it is recommended that micro and small enterprises regularly review and manage their borrowing policies to improve loan repayment. Financial institutions should implement clear policies on irrecoverable loan provisions and adopt robust credit management practices to ensure better loan repayment. Moreover, enhancing financial literacy among borrowers is crucial for improving loan repayment, and thus, targeted financial education programs should be developed. Policymakers should also evaluate and update regulatory frameworks to support effective loan management and repayment practices within microfinance institutions.

Bayesian Selection of Relaxed-clock Models: Distinguishing Between Independent and Autocorrelated Rates.

In Bayesian molecular-clock dating of species divergences, rate models are used to construct the prior on the molecular evolutionary rates for branches in the phylogeny, with independent and autocorrelated rate models being commonly used. The two classes of models, however, can result in markedly different divergence time estimates for the same dataset, and thus selecting the best rate model appears important for obtaining reliable in- ferences of divergence times. However, the properties of Bayesian rate model selection are not well understood, in particular when the number of sequence partitions analysed increases and when age calibrations (such as fossil calibrations) are misspecified. Further- more, Bayesian rate model selection is computationally expensive as it requires calculation of marginal likelihoods by MCMC sampling, and therefore methods that can speed up the model selection procedure without compromising its accuracy are desirable. In this study, we use a combination of computer simulations and real data analysis to investigate the sta- tistical behaviour of Bayesian rate model selection and we also explore approximations of the likelihood to improve computational efficiency in large phylogenomic datasets. Our simulations demonstrate that the posterior probability for the correct rate model converges to one as more molecular sequence partitions are analysed and when no calibrations are used, as expected due to asymptotic Bayesian model selection theory. Furthermore, we also show the model selection procedure is robust to slight misspecification of calibrations, and reliable inference of the correct rate model is possible in this case. However, we show that when calibrations are seriously misspecified, calculated model probabilities are com- pletely wrong and may converge to one for the wrong rate model. Finally, we demonstrate that approximating the phylogenetic likelihood under an arcsine branch-length transform can dramatically reduce the computational cost of rate model selection without compro- mising accuracy. We test the approximate procedure on two large phylogenies of primates (372 species) and flowering plants (644 species), replicating results obtained on smaller datasets using exact likelihood. Our findings and methodology can assist users in selecting the optimal rate model for estimating times and rates along the Tree of Life.