Theory Of Political Behavior Research Articles

EcolRxC: Ecological inference estimation of R × C tables using latent structure approaches

Abstract Ecological inference is a statistical technique used to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. A particularly relevant instance of ecological inference involves the estimation of the inner cells of a set of R × C related contingency tables when only their aggregate margins are known. This problem spans multiple disciplines, including quantitative history, epidemiology, political science, marketing, and sociology. This paper proposes new models for solving the problem using the latent structure theory, and presents the ecolRxC package, an R implementation of this methodology. This article exemplifies, explains, and statistically documents the new extensions and, using real inner cell election data, shows how the new models in ecolRxC lead to significantly more accurate solutions than ecol and VTR, two Stata routines suggested within this framework. ecolRxC also holds its own against ei.MD.bayes and nslphom, the two algorithms currently identified in the literature as the most accurate to solve this problem. ecolRxC records accuracies as good as those reported for ei.MD.bayes and nslphom. Besides, from a theoretical perspective, ecolRxC stands up for modeling a causal theory of political behavior to build its algorithm. This distinguishes it from other procedures proposed from different frameworks (such as ei.MD.bayes and nslphom) which model expected behaviors, instead of modeling how voters make choices based on their underlying preferences as ecolRxC does.

Political information search in “noisy” online environments: Insights from an experiment examining older and younger adults’ searches on smartphones and laptops

ABSTRACT An important problem voters face is that they frequently encounter unfamiliar candidates and policies during elections. The Internet provides a solution to this problem by allowing voters to access vast amounts of information using communication technologies like laptops and smartphones. However, the online environment is “noisy,” containing information both relevant and irrelevant to any given query. Existing research has not examined whether voters are able to discriminate between relevant and irrelevant political information during online search and how this discrimination ability influences voting decisions. We conducted a preregistered experimental study (N = 128; 64 younger participants and 64 older participants) in which we created our own search engine and webpages about political candidates to examine people’s discrimination ability during search. We found that people’s ability to discriminate between relevant and irrelevant facts during search increased the likelihood that their later vote choices were influenced by relevant (instead of irrelevant) information. In addition, older and younger adults’ discrimination abilities did not differ between searches on smartphones or laptops. Our findings demonstrate a new way to integrate theories of political behavior and communication technology and highlight information search in “noisy” online environments as an important problem faced by voters in democracies.

The Religious Politics of Habaib in Surabaya and Bangil East Java: A Socio-Religio-Political Approach

This study examines the socio-political activities of the habaib in East Java, Indonesia, which are heterogeneous and have different tendencies for affiliation among them. This diversity of work also underlies the diversity of their respective sympathizers and followers. This type of research is mixed research (library and field), with a critical-qualitative design. The approach used in this research is political sociology. The theory used to analyze the data is the theory of political behavior. This study found, first, that habaib’s socio-political behavior transformed, from the driving force of the integration of the socio-political life of the community to being part of the cause of disintegration. Second, habaib’s socio-political network influences and shapes the views of its community, and is unable to reach the wider community outside. The conclusions of the findings of this study contribute to the enrichment of the study of political sociology, especially regarding the socio-political gait and behavior of the habaib, as a subsystem that determines whether or not the socio-political life of the people in Indonesia is turbulent.

The delusive economy: how information and affect colour perceptions of national economic performance

Economic knowledge plays a central role in many theories of political behavior. But empirical studies have found many citizens to be poorly informed about the official state of the economy. Analyzing two waves of the Eurobarometer database, we re-examine the distribution of public knowledge of three macroeconomic indicators in two dozen European countries. Respondents with high income and education give more accurate estimates than others, in line with previous studies. As we show, however, such differences in knowledge do not only reflect varying levels of information. People’s estimates are also shaped by affective dynamics, in particular a more pessimistic outlook that leads to overestimation of official unemployment and inflation (but not growth) figures. We find that emotive factors can bias inflation and unemployment estimates of respondents who find themselves in a privileged economic situation in a direction that incidentally also makes them more accurate, even though respondents are not necessarily being better informed. In real-world politics, official economic statistics thus do not function as a shared information backdrop that could buttress the quality of public deliberation. Instead, knowledge of them is itself driven by personal socio-economic circumstances.

The politics of accountability in Supreme Court nominations: voter recall and assessment of senator votes on nominees

AbstractWhile longstanding theories of political behavior argue that voters do not possess sufficient political knowledge to hold their elected representatives accountable, recent revisionist studies challenge this view, arguing that voters can both follow how their representatives vote and use that information intelligently. We apply the revisionist account to the study of Supreme Court nominations in the modern era. Using survey data on the nominations of Clarence Thomas, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan, we ask whether voters can and do hold senators accountable for their votes on Supreme Court nominees. While our results for Thomas are ambiguous, we find strong evidence for accountability in the cases of Sotomayor and Kagan. In particular, we show that voters on average can correctly recall the votes of their senators on these nominees, and that correct recall is correlated with higher levels of education and political knowledge. We then show that voters are more likely to both approve of and vote to re-elect their senator if he or she casts a vote on Sotomayor and Kagan that is in line with voters’ preferences. Finally, we show this effect is quite sizable, as it rivals the effect of agreement on other high-profile roll call votes. These results have important implications for both the broader study of representation and for understanding the current politics of Supreme Court nominations.

Firme

Most social movements take years to bring change, and many activists burn out or age out of activism over time. The literature suggests that individuals are often motivated to take action when they feel attacked and decrease their engagement when the threat abates. These expectations are belied by the persistent activism of many millennial Latino immigrants. In 2012, we interviewed fifty Latino undocumented youth in California and Texas about the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. In 2018, during the Trump presidency, we re-interviewed fifteen of these individuals. We found increased feelings of marginalization, even for those participants who had obtained a more secure immigration status. We also found deepening cynicism about the possibility of immigration reform and about politics in general. Nonetheless, while some participants had changed their mode of activism, most continued to fight for their communities in some way. Their stories challenge traditional theories of political behavior that predict waning engagement and show how millennial Latino immigrants are acting to demand their inclusion and voice in the US political arena.

Beyond Slacktivism: The Cases of K-pop Fans and Tiktok Teens

With recent technology and social media, new forms of political activism have become widespread. Young people in particular, have been willing to embrace these new forms of activism. This paper examines new trends in digital activism through qualitative observations of Twitter and Tiktok, and three case studies of young people’s digital activism. In the first case study, Korean pop music (K-pop) fans thwarted police’s attempts to identify protesters by crashing police apps. In the second, they rendered white supremacist hashtags useless, by drowning out the hashtags with their own tweets. Finally, K-pop fans, along with Tiktok users, played a prank which humiliated the Trump reelection campaign. The study expands upon the life cycle effect and generational effects theories of political behavior, and develops a continuum with which to conceptualize and understand the nature of activism. It concludes that digital activism is characteristic of Gen Z, and has real-world impacts. This article pushes back on the notion that digital activism is mere “slacktivism” (low effort token support of a social movement). Instead, it argues that activism evolves along with technology and time, and that digital activism’s real-world impacts can be just as effective as conventional political activism.

Are voters too afraid to tackle corruption? Survey and experimental evidence from Mexico

AbstractAre individuals in violent contexts reluctant to tackle corruption for fear of future violence? Or does violence mobilize them to fight corruption? We investigate these questions looking at the effects of fear and violence stemming from the Mexican Drug War on attitudes toward corruption. We conducted two surveys before the 2012 Mexican presidential election. First, as part of a nationally representative survey, we find a positive correlation between fear of violence and willingness to accept corruption in exchange for lower levels of violence. To disentangle causal effects, we conducted a follow-up survey experiment in Greater Mexico City where we manipulated fear over the Drug War. We find that individuals within this context are not easily scared. Those who received a common fear-inducing manipulation do not report higher levels of fear and are less willing to tolerate corruption. Conversely, we find strong evidence that individuals who have been victims of crime are more likely to report both higher levels of fear and willingness to accept corruption if it lowers violence. Our findings suggest that voters are more strategic and resilient in the face of violence than many extant theories of political behavior suggest.

The Politics of Accountability in Supreme Court Nominations: Voter Recall and Assessment of Senator Votes on Nominees

While longstanding theories of political behavior argue that voters do not possess sufficient political knowledge to hold their elected representatives accountable, recent revisionist studies challenge this view, arguing that voters can both follow how their representatives vote and use that information intelligently. We apply the revisionist account to the study of Supreme Court nominations in the modern era. Using survey data on the nominations of Clarence Thomas, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan, we show that voters can and do hold senators accountable for their votes on Supreme Court nominees. In particular, we show that voters on average can correctly recall the votes of their senators on nominees, and that correct recall is correlated with higher levels of education and political knowledge. We then show that voters are more likely to both approve of and vote to re-elect their senator if he or she casts a vote on a nominee that is in line with the voter's preferences. Finally, we show this effect is quite sizable, as it rivals the effect of agreement on other high-profile roll call votes. These results have important implications for both the broader study of representation and for understanding the current politics of Supreme Court nominations.

How Can We Explain Regime Type Differences If Citizens Don't Vote Based on Foreign Economic Policy?

Abstract Political economy research shows that more democratic governments generally have more open trade policies with more flexible exchange rate regimes, yet political behavior theory argues that citizens do not think of foreign economic policy as salient and do not cast their votes considering such issues. This note investigates the puzzle about how democracies could have different foreign economic policies than autocracies if citizens do not vote based on these international issues. Using a political model with two possible ways for societal actors to influence state policy (electoral and/or special interest pressure), it first considers how voting based on salient domestic outcomes like inflation and unemployment may lead democratic governments towards more open trade and flexible exchange rates. Second, if more societal groups are able to lobby as special interests in more democratic regimes, then governments may also be pushed toward these same foreign economic policies. Thus, there is no fundamental contradiction between the political economy empirical results and the political behavior theory, although scholars need to adjust their theories to explain foreign economic policy differences across political regime type.

Signaling Sophistication: How Social Expectations Can Increase Political Information Acquisition

Information plays an integral role in theories of political behavior. However, little is known about why—if ever—voters choose to acquire political information. This article proposes that voters st...

Walking the walk? Experiments on the effect of pledging to vote on youth turnout.

Psychological theories of political behavior suggest that commitments to perform a certain action can significantly increase the likelihood of such action, but this has rarely been tested in an experimental context. Does pledging to vote increase turnout? In cooperation with the Environmental Defense Fund during the 2016 election, we conduct the first randomized controlled trials testing whether young people who pledge to vote are more likely to turn out than those who are contacted using standard Get-Out-the-Vote materials. Overall, pledging to vote increased voter turnout by 3.7 points among all subjects and 5.6 points for people who had never voted before. These findings lend support for theories of commitment and have practical implications for mobilization efforts aimed at expanding the electorate.

The treatment works: Revisiting a key link in contextual theories of political behavior

The use of self-reported contextual factors is prominent in political science. While recent research demonstrates that perceptions of contextual factors positively associate with census measured factors, it is less clear for whom and under what conditions this relationship holds. In this paper, I examine the relationship between census measured racial and ethnic composition and perceived racial and ethnic neighborhood composition. I use the 2008 and 2012 Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Study (CMPS) datasets and append US Census data to test how well respondents understand the racial and ethnic composition of their neighborhood. Leveraging the non-White oversamples in the CMPS, I am able to test this relationship among Latinos, Blacks, and Whites. I find a positive relationship between perceived neighborhood composition and census measured composition. Respondents who live in areas with higher proportions of a racial/ethnic group are more likely to perceive that their neighborhood is composed of that group. These findings hold across Black, Latino, and White sub-samples. These findings complement and extend recent work about how well respondents understand their local environment.

Соціологічні теорії політичної поведінки в аналізі впливу релігії на політику

The article raises the question of the sociological researching of the interaction of religion and politics, in particular – on the influenc of religion on political behavior. The author puts forward of hypothesis religion and politics aren’t separate social institutions existing in society, but religious preferences of the individual can influencw its political behavior. To confirm the theory put forward, author suggest to consider theories of political behavior with the aim of elucidating their explanatory potential in the analysis of religion as a potential and real factor of political behavior. The result of the auhor’s work is a general theoretical view of thw system of factors of political behavior and the place of religion in this system. Based on thr analysis of various theories, the author comes to the conclusion that religion and politics, as social institutions, are important and weighty phenomene in the life of person that effect its formation as individuals. At the same time, the religious factor influences and determines the political behavior of the individual. The theoretical analysis in the article allows to draw a conclusion about a sufficient theoretical basis for conducting promising practical sociological studies of the significance and nature of religious influence on political behavior.

Strategic voting, information, and ethnicity in emerging democracies: Evidence from Kenya

This paper explores the conditions under which voters in emerging democracies support non-viable candidates. We argue that cognitive biases and the geographic clustering of minor-party supporters in ethno-political enclaves lead to misperceptions about the electoral prospects of minor-party candidates, weakening strategic defections both among co-ethnic and non-co-ethnic supporters. We explore these arguments using original survey data from Kenya's 2007 presidential election, a contest that featured a minor-party candidate, Kalonzo Musyoka, who stood little chance of electoral victory. Despite this, results show that most of his supporters chose to vote for the candidate, failing to perceive that he was not a viable contender. The findings suggest that theories of political behavior in multi-ethnic settings can be enriched by drawing upon insights from the political psychology literature on belief formation.

Multinational Corporations and Governance Effectiveness: Toward a More Integrative Board

Multinational corporations (MNCs) dominate the global business arena, but new expectations for MNC boards call to question how they might effectively manage global stakeholder relationships in this new era of accountability. Uniting political behavior theory, which describes a board’s international political orientation, and global operating governance systems outlining a set of board behaviors, we develop a typology of four types of boards. We then provide recommendations for the development of an integrative governance structure, taking into account the mechanisms, structure, endorsements, and codes of conduct that MNCs can use to promote ethical behavior across MNC horizons.

Multinational corporations and governance reform: Towards a more integrative board

Multinational corporations (MNCs) dominate the global business arena, but traditional governance models do not map well on to these firms. Because a regulatory gap exists with MNCs, given that they do not operate within a clearly defined legal or political system, determining appropriate business conduct is even difficult for MNC boards aiming to do the right thing. However, very little research exists on how MNC governance and board practices translate between home country and various subsidiaries. Uniting political behavior theory and moral theories of global governance, we categorize four types of boards based on their legal, ethical and political orientations and then provide a framework for assessing the MNC board's propensity for reform.

El proyecto de una psicologia politica en el paraguay o el equilibrio entre historia, cultura y comportamiento

The study of political psychology as a specialized area within psychology began to be discussed in a very nearby date in Paraguay. But despite this recent inception, there are important precedents in the work of historians, lawyers and writers from diverse backgrounds who analyzed the peculiarities of the behavior of the Paraguayans from a historical and social perspective. This approach is not an accidental or arbitrary choice. The history of this country provides numerous instances where there can be studied the processes of collective construction of nationality as a response or alternative to the siege suffered by the influence of external factors and to the action of internal political and social processes. In Paraguay there was a very active miscegenation during the colonial era as well as an assimilation of the indigenous culture to the set of traditions and customs that provided the Spanish colonizers. From there, several important moments of the national history can be examined in search of elements and interpretative keys to understand the configuration of the political behavior typical of the Paraguayans. In themselves, these factors coming from the national history and culture are not yet proven hypothesis susceptible to integrate a theory of political behavior. They constitute basic inputs with the potential to contribute to the identification of those elements that may be subject to a subsequent check that simultaneously uses the current behavioral sciences methodological resources. This chapter offers a preliminary synthesis to configure a valid agenda for the research on political psychology in Paraguay.

Introduction: What is a ‘gene’ and why does it matter for political science?

A recent stream of influential research suggests that the inclusion of behavioral genetic models can further inform our understanding of political preferences and behaviors. But it has often remained unclear what these models mean, or how they might matter for the broader discourse in the political science literature. The initial wave of behavioral genetic research focused on foundational discovery, and has begun to outline the basic properties of genetic influence on political traits, while a second wave of research has begun to link genetic findings to broader aspects of political behaviors. In the introduction to this special issue, we explicate how genes operate, the most common forms of behavioral genetic analyses, and their recent applications toward political behaviors. In so doing, we discuss what these findings mean for political science, and describe how best to interpret them. We note potential limitations of behavioral genetic approaches and remain cautious against the overextension of such models. The five articles that follow strive to move beyond discovery and focus more on the integration of behavioral genetic models with mainstream theories of political behavior to analyze problems of interest to political scientists.

The macro and micro views of political marketing: the underpinnings of a theory of political marketing

The multi‐disciplinary nature of political marketing lends itself to a micro/macro analysis. The goal of the article is to present the theoretical frames allowing one to develop an approach to political marketing, which may become the foundations of a general theory of political marketing. Like microeconomics and macroeconomics are the two major categories within the field of economics, so are micro and macro approach to political marketing the two major perspectives that allow one to better understand the workings of modern democracies and the processes taking place there. Such an approach can integrate various theories of particular political behavior considered as part of an external macrostructure, understood as broad social, political, legal, economic, and technological context, with the theories of political behavior of individuals and institutions considered as internal microstructure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.