Walking the walk? Experiments on the effect of pledging to vote on youth turnout.

Mia Costa,Brian F Schaffner,Alicia Prevost,John Holbein

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0197066

Abstract

Psychological theories of political behavior suggest that commitments to perform a certain action can significantly increase the likelihood of such action, but this has rarely been tested in an experimental context. Does pledging to vote increase turnout? In cooperation with the Environmental Defense Fund during the 2016 election, we conduct the first randomized controlled trials testing whether young people who pledge to vote are more likely to turn out than those who are contacted using standard Get-Out-the-Vote materials. Overall, pledging to vote increased voter turnout by 3.7 points among all subjects and 5.6 points for people who had never voted before. These findings lend support for theories of commitment and have practical implications for mobilization efforts aimed at expanding the electorate.

Highlights

Voting is one of the most important civic opportunities offered to citizens, yet the persistent low participation rates of young people have long puzzled scholars, policymakers, and activists concerned with cultivating an active electorate
Research on cognitive psychology suggests that commitments to perform a certain action can significantly increase the likelihood of such action, but this has rarely been empirically tested in a political context
This research contributes to a growing body of work that uses field experiments to understand voter behavior

Summary

Introduction

Voting is one of the most important civic opportunities offered to citizens, yet the persistent low participation rates of young people have long puzzled scholars, policymakers, and activists concerned with cultivating an active electorate. Both the petition (control) cards and pledge (treatment) cards are shown in S1 Fig. In total, 4,110 individuals received the “pledge to vote” contact and 1,655 received the generic turnout contact, where they received information about the election This imbalance was by design; DOF believed that the pledge to vote appeal would be more effective and we worked with them to minimize the size of the. The average scores were close in Colorado, with an average of 68.3 for the control group and 69.7 for those recruited to sign a pledge to vote Both the pledge program and petition program appeared to be effective in reaching DOF’s target audience of young individuals. These patterns, in conjunction with the balance comparison presented above, help to bolster the expectation that the control and treatment groups were equivalent except with regard to the type of commitment obtained from the subject

Results

Discussion