Tg Yr Research Articles

Methane fluxes in the high northern latitudes for 2005–2013 estimated using a Bayesian atmospheric inversion

Abstract. We present methane (CH4) flux estimates for 2005 to 2013 from a Bayesian inversion focusing on the high northern latitudes (north of 50° N). Our inversion is based on atmospheric transport modelled by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART and CH4 observations from 17 in situ and five discrete flask-sampling sites distributed over northern North America and Eurasia. CH4 fluxes are determined at monthly temporal resolution and on a variable grid with maximum resolution of 1° × 1°. Our inversion finds a CH4 source from the high northern latitudes of 82 to 84 Tg yr−1, constituting ∼ 15 % of the global total, compared to 64 to 68 Tg yr−1 (∼ 12 %) in the prior estimates. For northern North America, we estimate a mean source of 16.6 to 17.9 Tg yr−1, which is dominated by fluxes in the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) and western Canada, specifically the province of Alberta. Our estimate for the HBL, of 2.7 to 3.4 Tg yr−1, is close to the prior estimate (which includes wetland fluxes from the land surface model, LPX-Bern) and to other independent inversion estimates. However, our estimate for Alberta, of 5.0 to 5.8 Tg yr−1, is significantly higher than the prior (which also includes anthropogenic sources from the EDGAR-4.2FT2010 inventory). Since the fluxes from this region persist throughout the winter, this may signify that the anthropogenic emissions are underestimated. For northern Eurasia, we find a mean source of 52.2 to 55.5 Tg yr−1, with a strong contribution from fluxes in the Western Siberian Lowlands (WSL) for which we estimate a source of 19.3 to 19.9 Tg yr−1. Over the 9-year inversion period, we find significant year-to-year variations in the fluxes, which in North America, and specifically in the HBL, appear to be driven at least in part by soil temperature, while in the WSL, the variability is more dependent on soil moisture. Moreover, we find significant positive trends in the CH4 fluxes in North America of 0.38 to 0.57 Tg yr−2, and northern Eurasia of 0.76 to 1.09 Tg yr−2. In North America, this could be due to an increase in soil temperature, while in North Eurasia, specifically Russia, the trend is likely due, at least in part, to an increase in anthropogenic sources.

Shortwave radiative forcing, rapid adjustment, and feedback to the surface by sulfate geoengineering: analysis of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G4 scenario

Abstract. This study evaluates the forcing, rapid adjustment, and feedback of net shortwave radiation at the surface in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project by analysing outputs from six participating models. G4 involves injection of 5 Tg yr−1 of SO2, a sulfate aerosol precursor, into the lower stratosphere from year 2020 to 2069 against a background scenario of RCP4.5. A single-layer atmospheric model for shortwave radiative transfer is used to estimate the direct forcing of solar radiation management (SRM), and rapid adjustment and feedbacks from changes in the water vapour amount, cloud amount, and surface albedo (compared with RCP4.5). The analysis shows that the globally and temporally averaged SRM forcing ranges from −3.6 to −1.6 W m−2, depending on the model. The sum of the rapid adjustments and feedback effects due to changes in the water vapour and cloud amounts increase the downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface by approximately 0.4 to 1.5 W m−2 and hence weaken the effect of SRM by around 50 %. The surface albedo changes decrease the net shortwave radiation at the surface; it is locally strong (∼ −4 W m−2) in snow and sea ice melting regions, but minor for the global average. The analyses show that the results of the G4 experiment, which simulates sulfate geoengineering, include large inter-model variability both in the direct SRM forcing and the shortwave rapid adjustment from change in the cloud amount, and imply a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulfate aerosols and clouds.

Revisiting global fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of ethane

AbstractRecent measurements over the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the long‐term decline in the atmospheric burden of ethane (C2H6) has ended and the abundance increased dramatically between 2010 and 2014. The rise in C2H6atmospheric abundances has been attributed to oil and natural gas extraction in North America. Existing global C2H6emission inventories are based on outdated activity maps that do not account for current oil and natural gas exploitation regions. We present an updated global C2H6emission inventory based on 2010 satellite‐derived CH4fluxes with adjusted C2H6emissions over the U.S. from the National Emission Inventory (NEI 2011). We contrast our global 2010 C2H6emission inventory with one developed for 2001. The C2H6difference between global anthropogenic emissions is subtle (7.9 versus 7.2 Tg yr−1), but the spatial distribution of the emissions is distinct. In the 2010 C2H6inventory, fossil fuel sources in the Northern Hemisphere represent half of global C2H6emissions and 95% of global fossil fuel emissions. Over the U.S., unadjusted NEI 2011 C2H6emissions produce mixing ratios that are 14–50% of those observed by aircraft observations (2008–2014). When the NEI 2011 C2H6emission totals are scaled by a factor of 1.4, the Goddard Earth Observing System Chem model largely reproduces a regional suite of observations, with the exception of the central U.S., where it continues to underpredict observed mixing ratios in the lower troposphere. We estimate monthly mean contributions of fossil fuel C2H6emissions to ozone and peroxyacetyl nitrate surface mixing ratios over North America of ~1% and ~8%, respectively.

Restoring Soil and Water Resources and Mitigating Climate Change in India by Judicious Management of Agricultural and Urban Wastes

India's present population of 1.34 billion is increasing at the rate of 1.18% yr−1. India's food grain production of 273.4 million tonnes (Mt) in 2017 has to be increased from lesser arable land area, lower fertilizer use and reduced consumption of water for supplementary irrigation. Furthermore, degraded soils, affecting land area of 114.2 million hectare (Mha), must be restored and risks of any new soil degradation minimized. In this context, the importance of recycling bio-wastes (e.g., agricultural, municipal and industrial) to restore soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration and stock and improve soil health cannot be over-emphasized. Crop residues, 510–836 Tg yr−1. are a major source of C, plant nutrients, biofuels and industrial raw materials. Rather than in-field burning and used as traditional fuel, composting and using as mulch can reduce risks of erosion and improve soil health. Similarly, dung production in India, also a rich source of C and nutrients, must be recycled as manure and used in bioreactors to produce methane. Wasted grains, fruits and vegetables must also be composted and used as a soil amendments. Judicious use of bio-wastes can re-carbonize the biosphere, restore degraded soils and improve soil health, produce biofuels and other value addition industrial byproducts, and improve the environment. Conservative estimates of additional soil C sequestration by judicious management of crop residues and animal dung are 24 Tg C yr−1 worth US $3.0 billion of revenue for farmers and land managers from payments for ecosystem services. There is a strong need of enhancing the awareness about proper disposal and use of bio-wastes through environmental education in primary and secondary schools, and communication by IT services. Recycling of bio-wastes is also critical to advancing the Sustainable Development Goals of the U.N. (Agenda 2030), promoting “4 per Thousand” program of COP21, and upholding the “Swatchh Bharat” ideals. It is a win-win-win option.

Double‐counting challenges the accuracy of high‐latitude methane inventories

AbstractQuantification of the present and future contribution to atmospheric methane (CH4) from lakes, wetlands, fluvial systems, and, potentially, coastal waters remains an important unfinished task for balancing the global CH4 budget. Discriminating between these sources is crucial, especially across climate‐sensitive Arctic and subarctic landscapes and waters. Yet basic underlying uncertainties remain, in such areas as total wetland area and definitions of wetlands, which can lead to conflation of wetlands and small ponds in regional studies. We discuss how in situ sampling choices, remote sensing limitations, and isotopic signature overlaps can lead to unintentional double‐counting of CH4 emissions and propose that this double‐counting can explain a pan‐Arctic bottom‐up estimate from published sources, 59.7 Tg yr−1 (range 36.9–89.4 Tg yr−1) greatly exceeding the most recent top‐down inverse modeled estimate of the pan‐Arctic CH4 budget (23 ± 5 Tg yr−1).

Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods.

Sulphate aerosol injection has been widely discussed as a possible way to engineer future climate. Monitoring it would require detecting its effects amidst internal variability and in the presence of other external forcings. We investigate how the use of different detection methods and filtering techniques affects the detectability of sulphate aerosol geoengineering in annual-mean global-mean near-surface air temperature. This is done by assuming a future scenario that injects 5 Tg yr−1 of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere and cross-comparing simulations from 5 climate models. 64% of the studied comparisons would require 25 years or more for detection when no filter and the multi-variate method that has been extensively used for attributing climate change are used, while 66% of the same comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection using a trend-based filter. This highlights the high sensitivity of sulphate aerosol geoengineering detectability to the choice of filter. With the same trend-based filter but a non-stationary method, 80% of the comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection. This does not imply sulphate aerosol geoengineering should be deployed, but suggests that both detection methods could be used for monitoring geoengineering in global, annual mean temperature should it be needed.

Constraints on oceanic methane emissions west of Svalbard from atmospheric in situ measurements and Lagrangian transport modeling.

Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014 and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model‐supported analysis of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH4 emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model, and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH4 emission areas. We found small differences between the CH4 mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH4 fluxes. The CH4 flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol m−2 s−1 in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggest CH4 fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg yr−1. All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported.

Investigating seasonal methane emissions in Northern California using airborne measurements and inverse modeling

Seasonal methane (CH4) emissions in Northern California are evaluated during this study by using airborne measurement data and inverse model simulations. This research applies Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) measurements obtained during January–February 2013, July 2014, and October–November 2014 over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in order to constrain seasonal CH4 emissions in Northern California. The California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) a priori emission inventory was applied in conjunction with the Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model and inverse modeling techniques to optimize CH4 emissions. Comparing model-predicted CH4 mixing ratios with airborne measurements, we find substantial underestimates suggesting that CH4 emissions were likely larger than the year 2008 a priori CALGEM emission inventory in Northern California. Using AJAX measurements to optimize a priori emissions resulted in CH4 flux estimates from the SFBA/SJV of 1.77 ± 0.41, 0.83 ± 0.31, and 1.06 ± 0.39 Tg yr−1 when using winter, summer, and fall flight data, respectively. Averaging seasonal a posteriori emission estimates (weighted by posterior uncertainties) results in SFBA/SJV annual CH4 emissions of 1.28 ± 0.38 Tg yr−1. A posteriori uncertainties are reduced more effectively in the SFBA/SJV region compared to state-wide values indicating that the airborne measurements are most sensitive to emissions in this region. A posteriori estimates during this study suggest that dairy livestock was the source with the largest increase relative to the a priori CALGEM emission inventory during all seasons.

Impacts of changing fire weather conditions on reconstructed trends in U.S. wildland fire activity from 1979 to 2014

AbstractOne component of climate‐fire interactions is the relationship between weather conditions concurrent with burning (i.e., fire danger) and the magnitude of fire activity. Here daily environmental conditions are associated with daily observations of fire activity within ecoregions across the continental United States (CONUS) by aligning the latter 12 years of a 36 year gridded fire danger climatology with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire products. Results reveal that although modern relationships (2003–2014) vary regionally, fires across the majority of CONUS are more likely to be present and burning more vigorously as fire danger increases. Applying modern relationships to the entire climatology (1979–2014) indicates that in the absence of other influences, changes in fire danger have significantly increased the number of days per year that fires are burning across 42–49% of CONUS (by area) while also significantly increasing daily fire growth and daily heat release across 37–45% of CONUS. Increases in the fire activity season length coupled with an intensification of daily burning characteristics resulted in a CONUS‐wide +0.02 Mha yr−1 trend in burned area, a 10.6 g m−2 yr−1 trend in the amount of fuel consumed per unit burned area, and ultimately a +0.51 Tg yr−1 trend in dry matter consumption. Overall, the results demonstrate regional variations in the response of fires to changes in fire danger and that weather conditions concurrent with burning have a three‐pronged impact on the magnitude of fire activity by affecting the seasonal duration, spatial extent, and combustion intensity.

The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Dissolved Organic Carbon Exported from Three Chinese Rivers to the China Sea.

The lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays an important role in linking the carbon cycles of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Neglecting the lateral flow of dissolved organic carbon can lead to an underestimation of the organic carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems. It is thus necessary to integrate DOC concentrations and flux into carbon cycle models, particularly with regard to the development of models that are intended to directly link terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. However, to achieve this goal, more accurate information is needed to better understand and predict DOC dynamics. In this study, we compiled an inclusive database of available data collected from the Yangtze River, Yellow River and Pearl River in China. The database is collected based on online literature survey and analysed by statistic method. Overall, our results revealed a positive correlation between DOC flux and discharge in all three rivers, whereas the DOC concentration was more strongly correlated with the regional net primary productivity (NPP). We estimated the total DOC flux exported by the three rivers into the China Sea to be approximately 2.73 Tg yr-1. Specifically, the annual flux of DOC from the Yangtze River, Yellow River and Pearl River was estimated to be 1.85 Tg yr-1, 0.06 Tg yr-1 and 0.82 Tg yr-1, respectively, and the average annual DOC concentrations were estimated to be 2.24 ± 0.53 mg L-1, 2.70 ± 0.38 mg L-1 and 1.51 ± 0.09 mg L-1, respectively. Seasonal variations in DOC concentrations are greatly influenced by the interaction between temperature and precipitation. NPP is significantly and positively related to the DOC concentration in the Yangtze River and the Pearl River. In addition, differences in climate and the productivity of the vegetation may influence both the flux and concentrations of DOC transported by the rivers and thus potentially affect estuarine geochemistry.

Inverse modeling of pan-Arctic methane emissions at high spatial resolution: what can we learn from assimilating satellite retrievals and using different process-based wetland and lake biogeochemical models?

Abstract. Understanding methane emissions from the Arctic, a fast-warming carbon reservoir, is important for projecting future changes in the global methane cycle. Here we optimized methane emissions from north of 60° N (pan-Arctic) regions using a nested-grid high-resolution inverse model that assimilates both high-precision surface measurements and column-average SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartogrphY (SCIAMACHY) satellite retrievals of methane mole fraction. For the first time, methane emissions from lakes were integrated into an atmospheric transport and inversion estimate, together with prior wetland emissions estimated with six biogeochemical models. In our estimates, in 2005, global methane emissions were in the range of 496.4–511.5 Tg yr−1, and pan-Arctic methane emissions were in the range of 11.9–28.5 Tg yr−1. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic wetlands and lakes were 5.5–14.2 and 2.4–14.2 Tg yr−1, respectively. Methane emissions from Siberian wetlands and lakes are the largest and also have the largest uncertainty. Our results indicate that the uncertainty introduced by different wetland models could be much larger than the uncertainty of each inversion. We also show that assimilating satellite retrievals can reduce the uncertainty of the nested-grid inversions. The significance of lake emissions cannot be identified across the pan-Arctic by high-resolution inversions, but it is possible to identify high lake emissions from some specific regions. In contrast to global inversions, high-resolution nested-grid inversions perform better in estimating near-surface methane concentrations.

Moderate topsoil erosion rates constrain the magnitude of the erosion-induced carbon sink and agricultural productivity losses on the Chinese Loess Plateau

Abstract. Despite a multitude of studies, overall erosion rates as well as the contribution of different erosion processes on Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) remain uncertain, which hampers a correct assessment of the impact of soil erosion on carbon and nutrient cycling as well as on crop productivity. In this paper we used a novel approach, based on field evidence, to reassess erosion rates on the CLP before and after conservation measures were implemented (1950 vs. 2005). We found that current average topsoil erosion rates are 3 to 9 times lower than earlier estimates suggested. Under 2005 conditions, more sediment was produced by non-topsoil erosion (gully erosion (0.23 ± 0.28 Gt yr−1) and landsliding (0.28 ± 0.23 Gt yr−1) combined) than by topsoil erosion (ca. 0.30 ± 0.08 Gt yr−1). Overall, these erosion processes mobilized ca. 4.77 ± 1.96 Tg yr−1 of soil organic carbon (SOC): the latter number sets the maximum magnitude of the erosion-induced carbon sink, which is ca. 4 times lower than one other recent estimate suggests. The programs implemented from the 1950s onwards reduced topsoil erosion from 0.51 ± 0.13 to 0.30 ± 0.08 Gt yr−1 while SOC mobilization was reduced from 7.63 ± 3.52 to 4.77 ± 1.96 Tg C yr−1. Conservation efforts and reservoir construction have disrupted the equilibrium that previously existed between sediment and SOC mobilization on the one hand and sediment and SOC export to the Bohai sea on the other hand: nowadays, most eroded sediments and carbon are stored on land. Despite the fact that average topsoil losses on the CLP are still relatively high, a major increase in agricultural productivity has occurred since 1980. Fertilizer application rates nowadays more than compensate for the nutrient losses by (topsoil) erosion: this was likely not the case before the dramatic rise of fertilizer use that started around 1980. Hence, erosion is currently not a direct threat to agricultural productivity on the CLP but the long-term effects of erosion on soil quality remain important.

Subregional inversion of North African dust sources

AbstractThe emission of mineral dust aerosols in arid and semiarid regions is a complex process whose representation in atmospheric models remains crude, due to insufficient knowledge about the aerosol lifting process itself, the lack of global data on soil characteristics, and the impossibility for the models to resolve the fine‐scale variability in the wind field that drives some of the dust events. As a result, there are large uncertainties in the total emission flux of mineral dust, its natural variability at various timescales, and the possible contribution from anthropogenic land use changes. This work aims for estimating dust emissions and reduces their uncertainty over the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula—the largest dust source region of the globe. We use a data assimilation approach to constrain dust emission fluxes at a monthly resolution for 18 subregions. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite‐derived aerosol optical depth is assimilated in a regional configuration of a general circulation model coupled to an aerosol model. We describe this data assimilation system and apply it for 1 year, resulting in a total mineral dust emissions flux estimate of 2900 Tg yr−1 over the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula for the year 2006. The analysis field of aerosol optical depth shows an improved fit relative to independent Aerosol Robotic Network measurements as compared to the model prior field.

Origins, seasonality, and fluxes of organic matter in the Congo River

AbstractThe Congo River in central Africa represents a major source of organic matter (OM) to the Atlantic Ocean. This study examined elemental (%OC, %N, and C:N), stable isotopic (δ13C and δ15N), and biomarker composition (lignin phenols) of particulate OM (POM) and dissolved OM (DOM) across the seasonal hydrograph. Even though the Congo exhibits an extremely stable intra‐annual discharge regime, seasonal variability in OM composition was evident. DOM appears predominantly derived from vascular plant inputs with greater relative contribution during the rising limb and peak in discharge associated with the major November–December discharge maximum. Generally, POM appears to be sourced from soil‐derived mineral‐associated OM (low C:N, low Λ8, and higher (Ad:Al)v) but the relative proportion of fresh vascular plant material (higher C:N, higher Λ8, and lower (Ad:Al)v) increases with higher discharge. During the study period (September 2009 to November 2010) the Congo exported 29.21 Tg yr−1 of total suspended sediment (TSS), 1.96 Tg yr−1 of particulate organic carbon (POC), and 12.48 Tg yr−1 of dissolved organic carbon. The Congo exports an order of magnitude lower TSS load in comparison to other major riverine sources of TSS (e.g., Ganges and Brahmaputra), but due to its OM‐rich character it actually exports a comparable amount of POC. The Congo is also 2.5 times more efficient at exporting dissolved lignin per unit volume compared to the Amazon. Including Congo dissolved lignin data in residence time calculations for lignin in the Atlantic Ocean results in an approximately 10% reduction from the existing estimate, suggesting that this material is more reactive than previously thought.

Wildfires in northern Eurasia affect the budget of black carbon in the Arctic – a 12-year retrospective synopsis (2002–2013)

Abstract. In recent decades much attention has been given to the Arctic environment, where climate change is happening rapidly. Black carbon (BC) has been shown to be a major component of Arctic pollution that also affects the radiative balance. In the present study, we focused on how vegetation fires that occurred in northern Eurasia during the period of 2002–2013 influenced the budget of BC in the Arctic. For simulating the transport of fire emissions from northern Eurasia to the Arctic, we adopted BC fire emission estimates developed independently by GFED3 (Global Fire Emissions Database) and FEI-NE (Fire Emission Inventory – northern Eurasia). Both datasets were based on fire locations and burned areas detected by MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on NASA's (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Terra and Aqua satellites. Anthropogenic sources of BC were adopted from the MACCity (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate and megacity Zoom for the Environment) emission inventory.During the 12-year period, an average area of 250 000 km2 yr−1 was burned in northern Eurasia (FEI-NE) and the global emissions of BC ranged between 8.0 and 9.5 Tg yr−1 (FEI-NE+MACCity). For the BC emitted in the Northern Hemisphere (based on FEI-NE+MACCity), about 70 % originated from anthropogenic sources and the rest from biomass burning (BB). Using the FEI-NE+MACCity inventory, we found that 102 ± 29 kt yr−1 BC was deposited in the Arctic (defined here as the area north of 67° N) during the 12 years simulated, which was twice as much as when using the MACCity inventory (56 ± 8 kt yr−1). The annual mass of BC deposited in the Arctic from all sources (FEI-NE in northern Eurasia, MACCity elsewhere) is significantly higher by about 37 % in 2009 (78 vs. 57 kt yr−1) to 181 % in 2012 (153 vs. 54 kt yr−1), compared to the BC deposited using just the MACCity emission inventory. Deposition of BC in the Arctic from BB sources in the Northern Hemisphere thus represents 68 % of the BC deposited from all BC sources (the remaining being due to anthropogenic sources). Northern Eurasian vegetation fires (FEI-NE) contributed 85 % (79–91 %) to the BC deposited over the Arctic from all BB sources in the Northern Hemisphere.We estimate that about 46 % of the BC deposited over the Arctic from vegetation fires in northern Eurasia originated from Siberia, 6 % from Kazakhstan, 5 % from Europe, and about 1 % from Mongolia. The remaining 42 % originated from other areas in northern Eurasia. About 42 % of the BC released from northern Eurasian vegetation fires was deposited over the Arctic (annual average: 17 %) during spring and summer.

Reversal of global atmospheric ethane and propane trends largely due to US oil and natural gas production

Atmospheric non-methane hydrocarbon concentrations began declining in the 1970s. Surface and column measurements show that Northern Hemisphere ethane concentrations are now rising, probably due to North American oil and natural gas emissions. Non-methane hydrocarbons such as ethane are important precursors to tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Using data from a global surface network and atmospheric column observations we show that the steady decline in the ethane mole fraction that began in the 1970s1,2,3 halted between 2005 and 2010 in most of the Northern Hemisphere and has since reversed. We calculate a yearly increase in ethane emissions in the Northern Hemisphere of 0.42 (±0.19) Tg yr−1 between mid-2009 and mid-2014. The largest increases in ethane and the shorter-lived propane are seen over the central and eastern USA, with a spatial distribution that suggests North American oil and natural gas development as the primary source of increasing emissions. By including other co-emitted oil and natural gas non-methane hydrocarbons, we estimate a Northern Hemisphere total non-methane hydrocarbon yearly emission increase of 1.2 (±0.8) Tg yr−1. Atmospheric chemical transport modelling suggests that these emissions could augment summertime mean surface ozone by several nanomoles per mole near oil and natural gas production regions. Methane/ethane oil and natural gas emission ratios could suggest a significant increase in associated methane emissions; however, this increase is inconsistent with observed leak rates in production regions and changes in methane’s global isotopic ratio.

Vulnerability of the peatland carbon sink to sea-level rise.

Freshwater peatlands are carbon accumulating ecosystems where primary production exceeds organic matter decomposition rates in the soil, and therefore perform an important sink function in global carbon cycling. Typical peatland plant and microbial communities are adapted to the waterlogged, often acidic and low nutrient conditions that characterise them. Peatlands in coastal locations receive inputs of oceanic base cations that shift conditions from the environmental optimum of these communities altering the carbon balance. Blanket bogs are one such type of peatlands occurring in hyperoceanic regions. Using a blanket bog to coastal marsh transect in Northwest Scotland we assess the impacts of salt intrusion on carbon accumulation rates. A threshold concentration of salt input, caused by inundation, exists corresponding to rapid acidophilic to halophilic plant community change and a carbon accumulation decline. For the first time, we map areas of blanket bog vulnerable to sea-level rise, estimating that this equates to ~7.4% of the total extent and a 0.22 Tg yr−1 carbon sink. Globally, tropical peatlands face the proportionally greatest risk with ~61,000 km2 (~16.6% of total) lying ≤5 m elevation. In total an estimated 20.2 ± 2.5 GtC is stored in peatlands ≤5 m above sea level, which are potentially vulnerable to inundation.

Evaluating ethane and methane emissions associated with the development of oil and natural gas extraction in North America

Sharp rises in the atmospheric abundance of ethane (C2H6) have been detected from 2009 onwards in the Northern Hemisphere as a result of the unprecedented growth in the exploitation of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs in North America. Using time series of C2H6 total columns derived from ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) observations made at five selected Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change sites, we characterize the recent C2H6 evolution and determine growth rates of ∼5% yr−1 at mid-latitudes and of ∼3% yr−1 at remote sites. Results from CAM-chem simulations with the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants, Phase II bottom-up inventory for anthropogenic emissions are found to greatly underestimate the current C2H6 abundances. Doubling global emissions is required to reconcile the simulations and the observations prior to 2009. We further estimate that North American anthropogenic C2H6 emissions have increased from 1.6 Tg yr−1 in 2008 to 2.8 Tg yr−1 in 2014, i.e. by 75% over these six years. We also completed a second simulation with new top-down emissions of C2H6 from North American oil and gas activities, biofuel consumption and biomass burning, inferred from space-borne observations of methane (CH4) from Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite. In this simulation, GEOS-Chem is able to reproduce FTIR measurements at the mid-latitudinal sites, underscoring the impact of the North American oil and gas development on the current C2H6 abundance. Finally we estimate that the North American oil and gas emissions of CH4, a major greenhouse gas, grew from 20 to 35 Tg yr−1 over the period 2008–2014, in association with the recent C2H6 rise.

Contribution of oil and natural gas production to renewed increase in atmospheric methane (2007–2014): top–down estimate from ethane and methane column observations

Abstract. Harmonized time series of column-averaged mole fractions of atmospheric methane and ethane over the period 1999–2014 are derived from solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements at the Zugspitze summit (47° N, 11° E; 2964 m a.s.l.) and at Lauder (45° S, 170° E; 370 m a.s.l.). Long-term trend analysis reveals a consistent renewed methane increase since 2007 of 6.2 [5.6, 6.9] ppb yr−1 (parts-per-billion per year) at the Zugspitze and 6.0 [5.3, 6.7] ppb yr−1 at Lauder (95 % confidence intervals). Several recent studies provide pieces of evidence that the renewed methane increase is most likely driven by two main factors: (i) increased methane emissions from tropical wetlands, followed by (ii) increased thermogenic methane emissions due to growing oil and natural gas production. Here, we quantify the magnitude of the second class of sources, using long-term measurements of atmospheric ethane as a tracer for thermogenic methane emissions. In 2007, after years of weak decline, the Zugspitze ethane time series shows the sudden onset of a significant positive trend (2.3 [1.8, 2.8] × 10−2 ppb yr−1 for 2007–2014), while a negative trend persists at Lauder after 2007 (−0.4 [−0.6, −0.1] × 10−2 ppb yr−1). Zugspitze methane and ethane time series are significantly correlated for the period 2007–2014 and can be assigned to thermogenic methane emissions with an ethane-to-methane ratio (EMR) of 12–19 %. We present optimized emission scenarios for 2007–2014 derived from an atmospheric two-box model. From our trend observations we infer a total ethane emission increase over the period 2007–2014 from oil and natural gas sources of 1–11 Tg yr−1 along with an overall methane emission increase of 24–45 Tg yr−1. Based on these results, the oil and natural gas emission contribution (C) to the renewed methane increase is deduced using three different emission scenarios with dedicated EMR ranges. Reference scenario 1 assumes an oil and gas emission combination with EMR = 7.0–16.2 %, which results in a minimum contribution C > 39 % (given as lower bound of 95 % confidence interval). Beside this most plausible scenario 1, we consider two less realistic limiting cases of pure oil-related emissions (scenario 2 with EMR = 16.2–31.4 %) and pure natural gas sources (scenario 3 with EMR = 4.4–7.0 %), which result in C > 18 % and C > 73 %, respectively. Our results suggest that long-term observations of column-averaged ethane provide a valuable constraint on the source attribution of methane emission changes and provide basic knowledge for developing effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of global wetlands: comprehensive evaluation of a new sub-grid TOPMODEL parameterization and uncertainties

Abstract. Simulations of the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands are key to understanding the role of wetland biogeochemistry under past and future climate. Hydrologic inundation models, such as the TOPography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL), are based on a fundamental parameter known as the compound topographic index (CTI) and offer a computationally cost-efficient approach to simulate wetland dynamics at global scales. However, there remains a large discrepancy in the implementations of TOPMODEL in land-surface models (LSMs) and thus their performance against observations. This study describes new improvements to TOPMODEL implementation and estimates of global wetland dynamics using the LPJ-wsl (Lund–Potsdam–Jena Wald Schnee und Landschaft version) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and quantifies uncertainties by comparing three digital elevation model (DEM) products (HYDRO1k, GMTED, and HydroSHEDS) at different spatial resolution and accuracy on simulated inundation dynamics. In addition, we found that calibrating TOPMODEL with a benchmark wetland data set can help to successfully delineate the seasonal and interannual variation of wetlands, as well as improve the spatial distribution of wetlands to be consistent with inventories. The HydroSHEDS DEM, using a river-basin scheme for aggregating the CTI, shows the best accuracy for capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands among the three DEM products. The estimate of global wetland potential/maximum is ∼ 10.3 Mkm2 (106 km2), with a mean annual maximum of ∼ 5.17 Mkm2 for 1980–2010. When integrated with wetland methane emission submodule, the uncertainty of global annual CH4 emissions from topography inputs is estimated to be 29.0 Tg yr−1. This study demonstrates the feasibility of TOPMODEL to capture spatial heterogeneity of inundation at a large scale and highlights the significance of correcting maximum wetland extent to improve modeling of interannual variations in wetland area. It additionally highlights the importance of an adequate investigation of topographic indices for simulating global wetlands and shows the opportunity to converge wetland estimates across LSMs by identifying the uncertainty associated with existing wetland products.