Texas Region Research Articles

Projecting the Temporal Evolution of Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Production Basins.

The methane emission intensity (methane emitted/gas produced or methane emitted/methane produced) of individual unconventional oil and gas production sites in the United States has a characteristic temporal behavior, exhibiting a brief period of decrease followed by a steady increase, with intensities after 10 years of production reaching levels that are 2-10 times the 10 year production-weighted average. Temporal patterns for methane emission intensity for entire production regions are more complex. Historical production data and facility data were used with a detailed basin-wide methane emission model to simulate the collective behavior of tens of thousands of wells and associated midstream facilities. For production regions with few to no new wells being brought to production, and existing wells having reached a mature stage, as in the Barnett Shale production region in north central Texas, the methane emission intensity gradually increases, as natural gas production decreases faster than emissions decrease, following the general pattern exhibited by individual wells. In production regions that are rapidly evolving, either with large numbers of new wells being put into production or with the introduction of source-specific regulations, the behavior is more complex. In the Eagle Ford Shale, which has had both a large number of new wells and the introduction of source-specific regulations, the methane emission intensity stays within relatively narrow bounds but the distribution of sources varies. As source distributions vary, basin-wide propane-to-methane and ethane-to-methane emission ratios vary, impacting methods used in source attribution.

Identifying and treating sepsis in older people: a quality improvement project in hospitals and nursing homes in Texas.

Sepsis, if not identified and treated early, can be fatal, particularly in older people. A lack of knowledge and understanding of sepsis among nursing staff can result in a missed or delayed diagnosis, leading to delayed treatment and potentially to patient death. A quality improvement project was conducted in nine hospitals and 200 nursing homes in the Lower and Upper Rio Grande Valley regions of Texas, in the US, to improve the identification and treatment of sepsis by nursing staff. Interventions included educational webinars for hospital staff and train-the-trainer sessions for nurse leaders in nursing homes. All participating hospitals had implemented a sepsis screening tool and sepsis care bundles by the end of the project, and an overall decline in sepsis mortality rates was seen in these hospitals. Among participating nurse leaders in nursing homes, a dramatic improvement in sepsis knowledge was seen. The outcomes of the project support the use of comprehensive nursing staff education on sepsis identification and treatment. Sepsis education needs to be ongoing to maintain optimal levels of knowledge among nursing staff.

Integrated Stroke System Model Expands Availability of Endovascular Therapy While Maintaining Quality Outcomes.

The optimal endovascular stroke therapy (EVT) care delivery structure is unknown. Here, we present our experience in creating an integrated stroke system (ISS) to expand EVT availability throughout our region while maintaining hospital and physician quality standards. We identified all consecutive patients with large vessel occlusion acute ischemic stroke treated with EVT from January 2014 to February 2019 in our health care system. In October 2017, we implemented the ISS, in which 3 additional hospitals (4 total) became EVT-performing hospitals (EPHs) and physicians were rotated between all centers. The cohort was divided by time into pre-ISS and post-ISS, and the primary outcome was time from stroke onset to EPH arrival. Secondary outcomes included hospital and procedural quality metrics. We performed an external validation using data from the Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council. Among 513 patients with large vessel occlusion acute ischemic stroke treated with EVT, 58% were treated pre-ISS and 43% post-ISS. Over the study period, EVT procedural volume increased overall but remained relatively low at the 3 new EPHs (<70 EVT/y). After ISS, the proportion of patients who underwent interhospital transfer decreased (46% versus 37%; P<0.05). In adjusted quantile regression, ISS implementation resulted in a reduction of time from stroke onset to EPH arrival by 40 minutes (P<0.01) and onset to groin puncture by 29 minutes (P<0.05). Rates of postprocedural hemorrhage, modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (TICI) 2b/3, and 90-day modified Rankin Scale were comparable at the higher and lower volume EPHs. The improvement in onset-to-arrival time was not reflective of overall improvement in secular trends in regional prehospital care. In our system, increasing EVT availability decreased time from stroke onset to EPH arrival. The ISS provides a framework to maintain quality in lower volume hospitals.

Individual and Community Social Determinants of Health Associated With Diabetes Management in a Mexican American Population.

Background: Diabetes is a major health burden in Mexican American populations, especially among those in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) in the border region of Texas. Understanding the roles that social determinants of health (SDOH) play in diabetes management programs, both at the individual and community level, may inform future intervention strategies.Methods: This study performed a secondary data analysis on 1,568 individuals who participated in Salud y Vida (SyV), a local diabetes and chronic disease management program, between October 2013 and September 2018 recruited from a local clinic. The primary outcome was the reduction of hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) at the last follow-up visit compared to the baseline. In addition to age, gender, insurance status, education level and marital status, we also investigated 15 community (census tract) SDOH using the American Community Survey. Because of the high correlation in the community SDOH, we developed the community-level indices representing different domains. Using Bayesian multilevel spatial models that account for the geographic dependency, we were able to simultaneously investigate the individual- and community-level SDOH that may impact HbA1C reduction.Results: After accounting for the diabetes self-management education classes taken by the participants and their length of stay in the program, we found that older age at baseline, being married (compared to being widowed or divorced) and English speaking (compared to Spanish) were significantly associated with greater HbA1C reduction. Moreover, we found that the community level SDOH were also highly associated with HbA1C reduction. With every percentile rank decrease in the socioeconomic advantage index, we estimated an additional 0.018% reduction in HbA1C [95% CI (−0.028, −0.007)]. Besides the socioeconomic advantage index, urban core opportunity and immigrant's cohesion and accessibility indices were also statistically associated with HbA1C reduction.Conclusion: To our knowledge, our study is the first to utilize Bayesian multilevel spatial models and simultaneously investigate both individual- and community-level SDOH in the context of diabetes management. Our findings suggest that community SDOH play an important role in diabetes control and management, and the need to consider community and neighborhood context in future interventions programs to maximize their overall effectiveness.

Performance and Phytochemical Content of 22 Pomegranate (Punica granatum) Varieties

Pomegranate is a drought-tolerant and salt-tolerant crop. Its fruits contain high levels of phytochemicals that have many health benefits. Pomegranate has the potential to be an alternative crop in areas where water availability is limited, such as west Texas. However, more than 500 pomegranate varieties are estimated to exist worldwide, and little is known about which varieties are suitable for growing in the west Texas region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the field performance of 22 pomegranate varieties, specifically based on phenology, resistance to sunburn, fruit split, fruit rot (resistance was calculated by subtracting the percent incidence by 100), yield, fruit phytochemicals, and Brix over the course of 3 years from 2016 to 2018. Cold damage, caused by below-freezing temperatures encountered from Nov. 2018 to Feb. 2019, was also evaluated in Apr. 2019. Our results showed significant varietal differences in nearly all response variables measured, indicating that varietal selection is important for pomegranate production for specific regions, such as west Texas. Leaf budding ranged from 47 to 62 days in 2016, 41 to 54 days in 2017, and 49 to 60 days in 2018. Anthesis ranged from 87 to 119 days in 2016, 80 to 94 days in 2017, and 92 to 114 days in 2018. Fruit resistance to split was broad and ranged from 7.3% to 79.1% in 2017 and from 14.2% to 99.7% in 2018. Fruit sunburn resistance ranged from 14.0% to 64.6% in 2017 and from 28.3% to 90.0% in 2018. Fruit heart rot incidence was nominal for all varieties. Total phenolic compound contents of the pomegranate fruit juice ranged from 0.81 to 1.52 mg GAE/mL, and the total antioxidant capacity ranged from 3.44 to 6.81 mg TE/mL. The yield per tree ranged from 1.00 to 7.96 kg in 2017 and from 0.81 to 10.26 kg in 2018. Brix ranged from 12.5% to 17.4% in 2017 and from 13.9% to 18.4% in 2018. Early winter below-freezing temperatures caused different degrees of cold damage; however, 5 of 22 varieties that originated from Russia did not show any cold damage. Results of a hierarchical cluster analysis based on the means of the key response variables of yield and Brix indicated that four varieties (Al-Sirin-Nar, Russian 8, Ben Ivey, and Salavatski) were notable for having both high yield and high Brix.

First reported case of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in children in West Texas

Research focusing on COVID-19-associated complications has become a growing area of importance. One such complication is multisystem inflammatory syndrome, a rare immune-mediated condition that most commonly presents with Kawasaki-like symptoms in the pediatric population. Potential complications include myocarditis, renal impairment, and cytokine storm. Here we describe the first reported case of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in the West Texas region, presenting in a Hispanic 5-year-old female with a recent history of COVID-19. The patient arrived to the hospital with a 4 day history of high fever, a 2 day history of diffuse maculopapular rash, and complaints of fatigue, generalized body aches, decreased appetite, headache, and abdominal pain. Further physical exam revealed hepatosplenomegaly and cervical lymphadenopathy, while labs revealed elevated inflammatory markers, lymphopenia, left shift with bandemia and immature cells, thrombocytopenia, hypoalbuminemia, and transaminitis. The patient was admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit with a suspected Kawasaki-like illness and started on high dose aspirin and IV immunoglobulin. She was placed on methylprednisolone, albumin, and acetaminophen on hospital day 3. By hospital day 4, the patient defervesced, inflammatory markers decreased, and clinical symptoms improved. The patient was discharged on hospital day 10 with absent fever and improvement of clinical symptoms for 6 consecutive days. No complications were detected upon follow-up 2 weeks later. A low threshold of suspicion for this illness is required in any child with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as the presentation is vague and early identification is necessary to prevent further complications.

Operationalizing the Deployment of Low-Titer O-Positive Whole Blood Within a Regional Trauma System.

The implementation of a low-titer O+ whole blood (LTOWB) resuscitation algorithm, particularly in the prehospital environment, has several inherent challenges, including cost, limited and inconsistent supply, and the logistics of cold-chain management. The Southwest Texas Regional Advisory Council has implemented the nation's first multidisciplinary, multi-institutional regional LTOWB program. This research effort was to illustrate the successful deployment of LTOWB within a regional trauma system. A deliberate systems approach to the deployment of LTOWB was used. Tenets of this program included the active management of blood donor sources and blood supply levels to minimize wastage as a result of expiration, maximize product utilization, the use of prehospital transfusion triggers, and efforts to decrease program costs prehospital agencies. A novel LTOWB rotation system was established using the concept of a "rotation site" and "rotation center." Standardized transfusion criteria, a regional approved equipment list, a regional Prehospital Blood Product Transfusion Record, and a robust multilevel communication plan serves as the framework for the program. The San Antonio Whole Blood Consortium was developed to create a consensus driven forum to manage and guide the program. From January 2018 to October 2019, LTOWB has been placed at 18 helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) bases, 12 ground emergency medical service (EMS) agencies, 1 level I trauma center, and 1 level IV trauma center. A total of 450 patients have received a prehospital LTOWB transfusion. Program wide, the wastage rate of LTOWB due to expiration is between 1% and 2%. No complications related to prehospital LTOWB administration have been identified. This work demonstrates a novel model for the development of a trauma system LTOWB program. The program's implementation augments remote damage control resuscitation strategies and requires the integration and collaboration of a multidisciplinary stakeholder team to optimize efficiency, performance, and safety of the program.

Enhancement of Zika virus infection by antibodies from West Nile virus seropositive individuals with no history of clinical infection

BackgroundRecent outbreaks of Zika Virus (ZIKV) infection and associated microcephaly has raised multiple scientific questions. The close antigenic relatedness between flaviviruses makes diagnosis of specific infection difficult. This relatedness also raises the potential of Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) via cross reactive antibodies to flaviviruses like West Nile Virus (WNV) and Dengue Virus (DENV). Asymptomatic WNV infections are endemic throughout the US creating a large proportion of the population that is seropositive for WNV antibodies. Whether these sero-positive individuals potentially carry ZIKV enhancing antibodies remains unknown.ResultsSerum samples obtained from human subjects with symptomatic or asymptomatic WNV infection from a WNV endemic region in Texas were tested for their ability to enhance or neutralize ZIKV infection. Sero-surveillance data demonstrated a ~ 7% prevalence for WNV antibodies in the population. Sera from both symptomatic and asymptomatic WNV seropositive donors effectively neutralized WNV and to some extent DENV infection. Interestingly, WNV+ sera failed to inhibit ZIKV while significantly enhancing infection. Conversely, ZIKV specific sera effectively neutralized ZIKV, with ADE only evident at lower concentrations. The enhancement of ZIKV via WNV antibody positive sera was likely due to non-neutralizing Envelope (E) antibodies as seen with monoclonal ZIKV E antibodies.ConclusionsOverall, our findings suggest that WNV antibodies in the sera significantly enhance ZIKV infection in Fc receptor positive cells with limited neutralization activity. Further studies in more relevant models of ADE will be needed to confirm the relevance of these findings in vivo.

Prediction of High-ozone Events Using GAM, SMOTE, and Tail Dependence Approaches in Texas (2005–2019)

We test three methods for ozone prediction in the El Paso (ELP) and Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) regions of Texas from 2005–2019: (1) a Generalized Additive Model (GAMs) approach; (2) a GAM approach with the addition of the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling TEchnique (SMOTE) and (3) a tail dependence modeling approach based in extreme value theory (EVT). We also compare the feature selection capabilities of the tail dependence approach to other feature selection methods. We find that the GAM+SMOTE model outperformed the GAM-only model when predicting ozone values for the root mean square error metric, particularly with regard to the above-threshold ozone values, which may be of particularly useful for extreme ozone event prediction. In addition, we find that the improvement of above-threshold MDA8 O3 prediction for the GAM+SMOTE method tends to come at the cost of below-threshold prediction, which is particularly important if MDA8 O3 trends are of interest. We also find that the tail dependence approach is capable of predicting extreme ozone events, but algorithmic stability and configuration complexity can make this approach difficult to operationalize on a broad scale and that the selection of the threshold needs to be carefully considered. Finally, the feature selection via the tail dependence method performs comparably to other forms of machine learning-based feature selection and we find that there are multiple parameter sets that can predict MDA8 O3 with equal success.

A Texan's Story: The Autobiography of Walter Prescott Webb ed. by Michael L. Collins

Reviewed by: A Texan's Story: The Autobiography of Walter Prescott Webb ed. by Michael L. Collins Richard B. McCaslin A Texan's Story: The Autobiography of Walter Prescott Webb. Edited by Michael L. Collins. ( Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 2020. Pp. 248. Illustrations, select bibliography.) Graphs increasingly define academics today. In one popular format, after a median line connecting a series of important points is established, all other performances are judged in relation to it. Like it or not, Walter Prescott Webb remains that line for those who write Texas history. That centrality makes this manuscript, flawed as it is, important for anyone interested in Texas or in writing and teaching history. It does not cover every aspect of Webb's life because he wrote it in 1943, twenty years before he died. Obviously, it was also never intended for publication. It is poorly written, with many repetitions and inconsistencies. The editor does little to correct its shortcomings—there is no index, the bibliography is scant, and the only footnotes come in his epilogue. But while Michael L. Collins errs in declaring this to be a "masterpiece of literature," he correctly asserts that it is a "surprising treasure trove of folk wisdom," with "many brilliant gems scattered throughout" (3). Those seeking personal insights will find them. Webb makes it clear that what drives him, and any successful person, is "desire" (74). Reflecting on his success, he adds, "I never have been able to work to a pattern furnished by others, a trait which has brought rich prizes and deep humiliations" (113). This belief resurfaces in a declaration concerning his greatest literary prize: "Whatever success has attended the publication [of] The Great Plains may be attributed to the fact that it is based on an independent concept and executed without regard to anything that had been done before" (15). A careful reader will also realize that Webb was a prodigious researcher with an unflagging work ethic. Pondering why he wrote books instead of articles for academic journals, he quips, "I preferred to hit the public with a solid shell rather than bird shot" (134). Webb did write short pieces; however, the amount of work required for them meant he tried to publish more than one at time. Finally, country boy humility and humor explain why he never had this memoir published: "My life has been a succession of deep humiliations and pleasant surprises and just why I should feel an impulse to set some of them down on paper is something I cannot explain" (17). [End Page 113] Webb's perspectives on the events of his life are priceless. Those interested in frontier Texas should read his reflections on being a farm boy in the Cross Timbers, which he believes has "produced more schoolteachers, country lawyers, preachers, and penitentiary inmates in proportion to size and population than any region of West Texas" (60). Beleaguered graduate students must study his advice to both them and faculty on academic relationships, especially during his "tragic year" at the University of Chicago (138). Frustrated writers will gain much from his passages on writing, although those who teach English might well be offended. As to why the movie version of his landmark book on the Texas Rangers bore little resemblance to what he wrote, Webb drily admits, "By the time the Hollywood lawyers get through with an author, he has renounced everything save the fact that he wrote a book, and he may be a little uncertain about that" (182). Readers who want the facts of Webb's life should look elsewhere, perhaps to books with indexes and footnotes. But those who want to know more about Webb's perspective on his life will find it here, and for that Collins is to be commended for letting the man speak for himself. Richard B. McCaslin University of North Texas Copyright © 2021 The Texas State Historical Association

Probabilistic Projections of Multidimensional Flood Risks at a Convection‐Permitting Scale

AbstractUnderstanding future river flood risk is a prerequisite for developing climate change adaptation strategies and enhancing disaster resilience. Previous flood risk assessments can barely take into account future changes of fine‐scale hydroclimatic characteristics and hardly quantify multivariate interactions among flood variables, thereby resulting in an unreliable assessment of flood risk. In this study, for the first time, we develop probabilistic projections of multidimensional river flood risks at a convection‐permitting scale through the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate simulations with 4‐km horizontal grid spacing. Vine copula has been widely used to assess the multidimensional dependence structure of hydroclimate variables, but the commonly used frequentist approach may fail to identify the correct vine model and to obtain the uncertainty interval. Thus, a Bayesian vine copula approach is proposed to explicitly address the multidimensional dependence of flood characteristics (i.e., flood peak, volume, and duration) and underlying uncertainties. The proposed approach enables a robust assessment of return periods of future floods for Guadalupe and Mission river basins located in South Texas of the United States. Our findings reveal that the South Texas region is projected to experience more flood events with longer duration and greater discharge volume. The flood peak, however, will not necessarily increase even though precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent. The projected flood return periods over the Guadalupe river basin do not show an obvious increase while the Mission river basin is projected to face a dramatic increase in flood risk with exposed to 100‐year and even severer floods nearly every 2 years, on average, when considering the combined effects of flood peak, volume, and duration.

Basic Analysis of a Steel Structure for Extreme Wind Loads

In recent years, there has been an increase in United States (US) population and hence subsequently the increase in construction. Hurricanes are natural disaster and have a high probability rate of impact in the US. This is because the US has an extensive shoreline. Accordingly, US has experienced a number of hurricanes and its after effects are still evident. Therefore, there is a need to study these hurricanes and produce a better hurricane resistant design. In this basic work, we used hurricane intensity loads to study the effect of a hurricane on a typical shopping mall located in South Texas region using RISA-3D (Rapid Interactive Structural Analysis – 3 Dimensions) software along with the combination of design specifications from American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and American Institute of Steel Construction-Load-Resistance and Factor Design (AISC-LRFD). The design factors for the calculation of the wind pressure were obtained from the ASCE manual and the members were selected from AISC-LRFD. A total of six loading cases were studied in this project namely: uniformly distributed and concentrated loads with no brace, two braces and four brace combinations. It was found that member M1 with no brace and four braces respectively produced the largest and smallest moments and member M4 with no brace and four braces respectively produced the highest and lowest deflections. The results from the basic analysis showed that we need to address controlling moments and deflections in critical members for a better hurricane resistant design.

Using lecture podcasts in the COVID‐19 transition to virtual post‐secondary education in agriculture

In the spring 2020 semester, Stephen F. Austin State University (SFASU), located in Nacogdoches, TX, transitioned face‐to‐face classes to online instruction because of the COVID‐19 pandemic. The east Texas region suffers from some of the poorest internet availability in the nation. Thus, limitations exist for streaming lectures or having students download large files. Podcasts are small audio files that can be downloaded from the internet for learning. Research has shown that the use of lecture podcasts have a variety of benefits for both faculty and students. Lecture podcasts provide students small file sizes to download and access and allow them to engage with the course material asynchronously. Therefore, the decision was made to record lecture podcasts for Cultivating Plants, Plant Propagation, and Plant Breeding to deliver educational content for the class. An end of semester survey conducted by the SFASU Agriculture Department indicated that 59% of students who engaged with this type of learning felt it was extremely effective. Additional student comments and semester reflections also provided feedback. This example provides further evidence that lecture podcasts can be a useful tool for educators in an ever‐changing world.

Adolphe Gouhenant: French Revolutionary, Utopian Leader, and Texas Frontier Photographer by Paula Selzer and Emmanuel Pécontal

Reviewed by: Adolphe Gouhenant: French Revolutionary, Utopian Leader, and Texas Frontier Photographer by Paula Selzer and Emmanuel Pécontal Gerald D. Saxon Adolphe Gouhenant: French Revolutionary, Utopian Leader, and Texas Frontier Photographer. By Paula Selzer and Emmanuel Pécontal. Texas Local Series. (Denton: University of North Texas Press, 2019. Pp. xxii, 430. $34.95, ISBN 978-1-57441-769-2.) Adolphe Gouhenant: French Revolutionary, Utopian Leader, and Texas Frontier Photographer is a well-researched and engagingly written biography of Adolphe Gouhenant (“pronounced Gounah”), an individual whom most people will know little about, unless they are familiar with the early history of [End Page 122] the north Texas region, especially Dallas, Denton, Fort Worth, and Pilot Point (p. xvii). Gouhenant, born in 1804 in the small village of Flagy in revolutionary France, had a remarkable life, which authors Paula Selzer and Emmanuel Pécontal divide into three parts (as noted in the subtitle of the book). First, he was a French revolutionary and artist/scientist who pushed for workers’ rights and was briefly imprisoned for his political activities. Gouhenant emerged later to become a Utopian leader, in the vanguard of an attempt to establish a communist settlement, Icaria, in north Texas in 1848. Despite being blamed for the settlement’s failure, he stayed in north Texas and reinvented himself yet again, this time as a photographer, teacher, doctor, landholder, and owner of the “first cultural institution” in Dallas (p. xix). The authors argue that Gouhenant was as “an outrageously complex character who wandered around grasping at the edges of a successful career, staking small claims along the way” (p. 336). Gouhenant “was complicated and misunderstood. His motives were sometimes unclear and his actions tested the limits of the law in both France and America” (p. 337). He had a penchant to reinvent himself after personal and professional failures and a resilience to try again—to try anything again! The authors find that the major challenge in researching Gouhenant is the fact that documents, manuscripts, official records, and newspapers have spelled his last name at least twenty-four different ways, which makes research a challenge in both France and the United States. Selzer is a third-generation granddaughter of Gouhenant, and Pécontal is a French historian of astronomy; their styles blend seamlessly in the narrative. One of the book’s most important contributions is tracing Gouhenant’s life in France before he immigrated to Texas. “In 1831, he petitioned the Duc d’Orléans requesting funds to build a monument to science” in Lyon (p. xviii). Though his request was denied, Gouhenant did construct “a one-hundred-foot observatory” on a hill overlooking the city (p. xviii). He financed the construction with loans but later defaulted on paying them back, sparking a series of civil cases against him, after which he declared bankruptcy. He reemerged and worked as “an art dealer, painter, and restorer, and fought for workers’ rights during the final years of the French monarchy” (p. xviii). His zeal and enthusiasm got him arrested in Toulouse, where he was tried and acquitted of revolutionary activity in 1843. He became a convert to Icarian communism and advocated installing it in France by force. Leaving behind his wife and two children in France, Gouhenant led the vanguard of a Utopian dream to establish an Icarian settlement in Denton County in north Texas in 1848. The settlement failed, and Étienne Cabet, the founder of Icarian communism, accused Gouhenant of treachery, incompetence, and a double cross. The authors, however, write that “Gouhenant was none of these, and it is to his credit that he was able to hold together the men in his charge for as long as he did” (p. 197). Trying to rebuild his life again, Gouhenant drifted from Fort Worth to Dallas and back, teaching music, drawing, and French and buying and selling property in both towns—property transactions that got him entangled in countless court cases. In 1851 he established the Arts Saloon, the first art gallery and ballroom in Dallas, and in 1853 he was the first to be naturalized in the city. He also became the first photographer in Dallas, and his daguerreotypes provide some [End Page...

472. The Utility of Infectious Diseases E-consults in the Era of COVID-19

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid Infectious Diseases (ID) consultation has been required to answer novel questions regarding SARS-CoV-2 testing and infection prevention. We sought to evaluate the utility of e-consults to triage and provide rapid ID recommendations to providers.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study reviewing ID e-consults in three institutions in the North Texas region: Clements University Hospital (CUH), Parkland Hospital and Health System (PHHS), and the VA North Texas Health Care System (VA) from March 1, 2020 to May 15, 2020. Variables collected include age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities, time to completion, reason for consult and outcome of consult (initiation or removal of personal protective equipment (PPE) and recommendation to test or retest for COVID-19).ResultsWe performed all analysis using R studio (Version 1.3.959). Characteristics of 198 patients included: 112(57%) male, 86(43%) female, 86(43%) Caucasian, 71(36%) Hispanic, 42(21%) African American, 6(3%) Asian and mean(sd) age of 55.1(15.9). Patient comorbidities included: 89(45%) with a heart condition, 77(39%) diabetes, 30(15%) asthma and 14(7%) liver disease.Median time to completion for all hospitals was 4 hours(h); ((CUH (4h) vs PHHS (2h), p< 0.05; VA (5.5h) vs PHHS (2h) p< 0.05)). Most common reasons for e-consult included: (63)32% regarding re-testing ((CUH 14(21%) vs PHHS 43(50%), p< 0.05; CUH vs VA 14(27%), p< 0.05; PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)), (61)31% testing ((CUH 25(37%) vs PHHS 39(45%), p< 0.05; CUH vs VA 7(16%), p< 0.05; PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)) and 61(31%) infection prevention (IP). Based on the e-consult recommendation, 53(27%) of patients were tested ((CUH 31(45%) vs PHHS 11(13%), p< 0.05, CUH vs VA 11(25%), PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)), 45(23%) were re-tested, 44(22%) of patients had PPE started on and 19% had PPE removed ((CUH 0(0%) vs PHHS 16(19%), p< 0.05; CUH vs VA 21(48%), p< 0.05; PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)).Reason for Consult ConclusionE-consult services can provide prompt ID input during the COVID-19 pandemic, minimizing the risk of infection to the patient and health care workers while preserving PPE and testing supplies.Disclosures Roger Bedimo, MD, MS, Gilead Sciences (Consultant)Merck & Co. (Advisor or Review Panel member)ViiV Healthcare (Advisor or Review Panel member, Research Grant or Support)

Interpretable vs. noninterpretable machine learning models for data-driven hydro-climatological process modeling

Due to their enhanced predictive capabilities, noninterpretable machine learning (ML) models (e.g. deep learning) have recently gained a growing interest in analyzing and modeling earth & planetary science data. However, noninterpretable ML models are often treated as “black boxes” by end-users, which could limit their applicability in critical decision making processes. In this paper, we compared the predictive capabilities of three interpretable ML models with three noninterpretable ML models to answer the overarching question: Is it essential to use noninterpretable ML models for enhanced model predictions from hydro-climatological datasets? The ML model development and comparative analysis were performed using measured climate data and synthetic reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) data, with varying levels of missing values, from five weather stations across the karstic Edwards aquifer region in semi-arid south-central Texas. Our analysis revealed that interpretable tree-based ensemble models produce comparable results to noninterpretable deep learning models on structured hydro-climatological datasets. We showed that the tree-based ensemble model is also capable of imputing varying levels of missing climate data at the weather stations, employing the newly developed sequential transfer-learning technique. We applied an explainable machine learning (eXML) framework to quantify the global order of importance of hydro-climatic (predictor) variables on ETo, while highlighting the local dependencies and interactions amongst the predictors and ETo. The eXML framework also revealed the inflection points of the climate variables at which the transition from low to high daily ETo rates occur. The ancillary explainability of ML models are expected to increase users’ confidence and support any future decision-making process in water resource management.

Changes in Mass Treatment of the Canine Parvovirus ICU Population in Relation to Public Policy Changes during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Previous work has indicated that canine parvovirus (CPV) prevalence in the Central Texas region may follow yearly, periodic patterns. The peak in CPV infection rates occurs during the summer months of May and June, marking a distinct “CPV season”. We hypothesized that human activity contributes to these seasonal changes in CPV infections. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in drastic changes in human behavior which happened to synchronize with the CPV season in Central Texas, providing a unique opportunity with which to assess whether these society-level behavioral changes result in appreciable changes in CPV patient populations in the largest CPV treatment facility in Texas. In this work, we examine the population of CPV-infected patients at a large, dedicated CPV treatment clinic in Texas (having treated more than 5000 CPV-positive dogs in the last decade) and demonstrate that societal–behavioral changes due to COVID-19 were associated with a drastic reduction in CPV infections. This reduction occurred precisely when CPV season would typically begin, during the period immediately following state-wide “reopening” of business and facilities, resulting in a change in the typical CPV season when compared with previous years. These results provide evidence that changes in human activity may, in some way, contribute to changes in rates of CPV infection in the Central Texas region.

Through space and time: Predicting numbers of an eruptive pine tree pest and its predator under changing climate conditions

Forest biotic populations and communities are undergoing irreversible changes due to climatic perturbations, and these effects may be exacerbated by insect pests. In the southeastern United States (U.S.), Dendroctonus frontalis is one of the most important forest pests that can cause substantial tree mortality over large geographic areas. As life-history of D. frontalis is dependent on environmental conditions, our objective was to determine the effects of climatic variables on the species occurrence of D. frontalis and their main predator, Thanasimus dubius. U.S. Department of Agriculture - Forest Service beetle trapping data (proxy for true abundance) for 2014–2018 were assessed with nine climatic variables including: (1) average monthly minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures; (2) mean winter temperature; (3) minimum, maximum and mean annual temperature; and (4) cumulative winter and annual precipitation. Variable selection was performed using least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO), and selected variables were fit to varying coefficient generalized additive models (GAMs). Minimum temperatures for February and March and maximum temperatures for January and prior year August were found to have a significant effect on D. frontalis numbers, and model accuracy was ~89%. Beetle suitability was assessed for 1981–2100 under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). The model indicated that the suitability of D. frontalis has increased from 1981 to 2019 in certain regions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia, while Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Tennessee, East Texas, and Virginia had low suitability. Future projections indicated comparable D. frontalis numbers to current numbers under the lowest SSP of 2.1 °C by year 2100, but D. frontalis may decrease under higher warming projections. The same climatic predictors influenced T. dubius, except average September maximum temperature replaced August maximum temperatures in the model. Understanding how these abiotic factors influence forest pest populations may better guide prevention and management practices aimed at identifying high risk areas and reducing pest outbreaks.

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

AbstractERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

Racial Disparities in Malignant Primary Brain Tumor Survival in Texas From 1995 to 2013.

Background: Differences among the top five races in Texas will be explored to determine if racial, geographic, and healthcare disparities exist in patients undergoing treatment for a primary malignant brain tumor.Methods: Data were obtained from the Texas Cancer Registry from 1995 to 2013. SAS 9.3 (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC) and SEER*Stat 8.3.2 (National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD) software were used to analyze death from malignant brain tumors and cause-specific survival. Survival rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Log-Rank tests. Hazard ratios were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.Results: Median survival was highest among Asians at 92 months (95% CI: 72, 142) and least among Whites at 20 months (95% CI: 19, 21). Patients living in the Upper Gulf Coast region of Texas had the longest survival time at 31 months (95% CI 29-35%), while those patients in the Texas Panhandle had the shortest survival time at 18 months (95% CI 14-23%). Patients with a poverty index of 0-5% had the highest median survival time of 32 months (95% CI 29-35%), as compared to patients with a poverty index of 10-20% who had a median survival of 22 months (95% CI 21-24%).Conclusions: Ethnic minorities and higher socioeconomic class demonstrated survival advantage. White males had the worst survival of those with primary malignant brain tumors. Other significant factors affecting a patient’s survival rate included geographic location, poverty index, sex, and age, thus suggesting a potential genetic and environmental influence.