Terrorist Events Research Articles

머신러닝을 활용한 테러리즘 빅데이터 분석

The purpose of this study is to analyze terrorism-related structured and unstructured big data using machine learning techniques for big data analysis to confirm the predictability of terrorism and derive implications. To this end, big data on terrorism was obtained from research institutes specializing in terrorism, articles and documents posted on various portals and SNS were collected, put into machine learning, and analyzed and learned, and the results were confirmed. The analysis results are as follows. First, as a result of conducting K-Means Clustering, a representative unsupervised learning among machine learning techniques, eight regional clusters of terrorism occurred around the world in 2021 (near Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia). Next, as a result of clustering by type of terrorism, assassination using weapons excluding explosives, kidnapping or kidnapping targeting key facilities were identified. In addition, as a result of clustering around the means used in terrorism, it was confirmed that there were many explosives ahead, but there were differences according to the cluster. Finally, clusters of military, police, government personnel, civilians, and private property were identified as a result of clustering centered on targets of terrorism. Second, as a result of sentiment analysis by setting unstructured texts on terrorism events as research subjects, it was confirmed that there were differences in views on terrorism between terrorism researchers and the general public. Based on these research results, policy suggestions were made on ways to prevent terrorism.

Modeling Terror Attacks with Self-Exciting Point Processes and Forecasting the Number of Terror Events.

Rampant terrorism poses a serious threat to the national security of many countries worldwide, particularly due to separatism and extreme nationalism. This paper focuses on the development and application of a temporal self-exciting point process model to the terror data of three countries: the US, Turkey, and the Philippines. To account for occurrences with the same time-stamp, this paper introduces the order mark and reward term in parameter selection. The reward term considers the triggering effect between events in the same time-stamp but different order. Additionally, this paper provides comparisons between the self-exciting models generated by day-based and month-based arrival times. Another highlight of this paper is the development of a model to predict the number of terror events using a combination of simulation and machine learning, specifically the random forest method, to achieve better predictions. This research offers an insightful approach to discover terror event patterns and forecast future occurrences of terror events, which may have practical application towards national security strategies.

The dollar value for a loss of life: the politics of monetization of the terror disaster in Sara Colangelo’s Worth (2020)

The article argues that Sara Colangelo’s Worth (2020) problematizes the monetization of the terror disaster. It explores the hegemonic politics involved in terming some lives more (un)grievable in monetary terms. The film highlights that the loss of lives and bodily injuries in a terror disaster cannot be converted into tangible monetary value. Instead, it emphasizes that all lives are equally grievable irrespective of their economic loss value. There needs to be democratic mourning that grieves the loss of all lives equally. The article draws on the works of trauma and memory studies theorists to analyze the primary data. The paper explores the social and economic aspects of trauma and the psychological perspective. It argues that mourning requires a democratic approach, particularly one that acknowledges and laments the loss of every life with equal weight. Worth exposes the inequitable treatment of victims and questions the underlying power dynamics in society by questioning the monetization of terrorist events. In the end, this paper promotes a more open-minded and sympathetic attitude to collective and individual trauma and raises an understanding of the intricate and multifaceted nature of mourning.

Pediatric Casualties in Terrorist Attacks: A Semi-Quantitative Analysis of Global Events through the Lens of Counter-Terrorism Medicine

Introduction:Terrorism remains a major threat and concern in many countries around the world. Children represent approximately 30% of the world population and in the event of a terrorist attack can either be primary targets, to include the possibility of abduction, or unintended victims. Children are unique in their vulnerabilities and therefore, require special consideration.Method:This study is a semi-quantitative epidemiological analysis of all terrorism-related pediatric fatalities and injuries sustained between 1970-2019. Data collection was performed using a retrospective database search through the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Summaries of events including search terms associated with children were individually reviewed and those describing the deaths, injuries, or abduction of children were tallied.Results:Of the over 200,000 terror events, 2,302 events met inclusion criteria. This represented 1.14% of total events which involved death, injury, or abduction of children. Of 2,032 events a total of 2,275 pediatric fatal injuries (FI) were recorded, as well as 2,280 pediatric non-fatal injuries (NFI). The most common weapons used in all attacks involving the pediatric population were explosives (1539[66.8%]), firearms (543 [23.5%]), other (169 [7.3%]) and melee (83 [3.6%]). 275 of the 2,032 were related to abductions, with 71 cases involving the abduction of ten children or more.Conclusion:Pediatric casualties in terrorist events represent a small proportion of overall victims, however, they have unique vulnerabilities, and when directly impacted by terrorism, can have long term physical and psychosocial sequelae, as well as a devastating emotional impact on the community.

An Organizational Perspective of a COVID-19 Outbreak at a Tertiary Hospital

Introduction:The COVID-19 pandemic challenged healthcare systems globally disrupting access to high quality essential health services. The pandemic may be viewed as a disaster impacting on patients and staff alike. There is a paucity of research describing how large health services have maintained, scaled and innovated care during the pandemic. The study was conducted to provide insights to inform hospital disaster management responses, specifically to identify organizational learnings from the COVID-19 response, capture instances of innovation, understand the impact of COVID-19 on models of care and to identify organizational priorities to prepare for a potential future disaster or terror event.Method:Survey research was conducted using a qualitative research strategy. The study was conducted at a 550-bed university-affiliated tertiary hospital located in the southeast corner of Australia in the State of Victoria. The survey was purpose designed, included open-ended questions requiring text responses, and was completed in an online survey form. A thematic analysis of the data was completed.Results:A total of 258 staff completed the survey, with staff representing doctors, nurses, allied health, and support personnel. There were four overarching domains of learning identified; People and Care, Staff Support, Implementation of Care, and Organizational Factors. These domains were supported by 14 topic areas which highlighted specific areas of learning and opportunity in preparing for or responding to a potential future disaster or terror eventConclusion:There was a need during the pandemic to pivot rapidly to reorganize services and workforce to operate and deliver care in a safe manner. Attention to and action in the domains of People and Care, Staff Support, Implementation of Care, and Organizational Factors can be considered by organizations when planning health service delivery in response to and during the COVID-19 pandemic, or more generally to a potential future disaster or terror event.

Democratization of Terrorism: An Analysis of Vehicle-based Terrorist Events

Introduction:The COVID-19 pandemic inspired social changes that promote outdoor activities including eating at restaurants, which may linger in a world hyperfocused on disease transmission prevention, increasing the vulnerabilities to vehicle-based terrorism. Vehicle ramming attacks started to transition from a relatively rare method of attack to one of the most lethal forms of terrorism prior to the emergence of COVID-19.Method:This study aims to provide a historical analysis of the terrorism-based attacks using vehicles between 1970 and 2019 by retrospectively searching the Global Terrorism Database for terror events that used a vehicle as a means of attack–a methodology suggested by Tin et al.Results:257 recorded terror attacks involved some type of vehicle between 1970 and 2019. The attacks resulted in 808 fatalities and 1715 injuries when excluding the September 11 attacks. 76 events occurred in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, 25 in the USA, 16 in Israel, and 14 in the UK. Of the 257 terror incidents, 71% (183) occurred within the last 6-year span of inquiry.Conclusion:By 2016, vehicle attacks were the most lethal form of attack comprising just over half of all terrorism-related deaths in that year. Large gatherings such as festivals, sporting events, and now outdoor seating at restaurants, leave a number of people highly vulnerable to vehicle ramming attacks depending on established countermeasures. The increased prevalence of outdoor activities and gatherings in a post-COVID-19 world will further expose large numbers of people to the potential vulnerabilities of vehicle-based terrorism. The scale of the casualties from a vehicle-based terror attack can overwhelm traditional resources and strain the abilities of the healthcare sector. Counterterrorism and disaster medicine specialists are crucial players in educating first responders and emergency medicine providers, allowing them to adequately prepare for an evolving threat in a world devastated by COVID-19.

EMS and Bioterrorism Response

Introduction:Previous studies have found that public health systems within the United States are inadequately prepared for an act of biological terrorism. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, few studies have evaluated bioterrorism preparedness of Emergency Medical Services (EMS), even in the accelerating environment of biothreats.Method:This study utilized an Internet-based survey to assess the level of preparedness and willingness to respond to a bioterrorism attack and identify factors that predict preparedness and willingness among Nebraska EMS providers. The survey was available for 1 month in 2021 during which 190 EMS providers responded to the survey.Results:Only 56.8% of providers were able to recognize an illness or injury as potentially resulting from exposure to a biological agent. Provider Clinical Competency levels ranged from a low of 13.6% (ability to initiate patient care within his/her professional scope of practice and arrange for prompt referral appropriate to the identified condition(s)) to a high of 74% (the ability to respond to an emergency within the emergency management system of his/her practice, institution, and community). Only 10% of the respondents were both willing and able to effectively function in a bioterror environment.Conclusion:To effectively prepare for and respond to a bioterrorist attack, all levels of the healthcare system need to have the clinical skills, knowledge, and abilities necessary to treat patients exposed to biological agents. Policy changes and increased focus on training and drills are needed to ensure a prepared EMS system, which is crucial to a resilient state. EMS entities need to be aware of the extent of their available workforce so that the country can be prepared for the increasing threat of bioterrorism or other novel emerging infectious disease outbreaks. A resilient nation relies on a prepared set of EMS providers who are willing to respond to biological terrorism events.

Religion and terrorism: Evidence from Ramadan fasting

Do intense religious experiences increase or decrease terrorism? We argue that fasting during the month of Ramadan offers an ideal setting for studying this question empirically. Reasons are twofold: first, daily fasting from dawn to sunset during Ramadan is considered mandatory for most Muslims. Second, the Islamic Hijri calendar is not synchronized with the solar cycle. Therefore, the daily fasting duration during Ramadan is exogenous once we control for latitude and the seasonality of Ramadan, which we can do by using district and country-year fixed effects. Focusing on predominantly Muslim countries, we document three main findings: first, longer and more intense Ramadan fasting has a robust negative effect on the likelihood of local terrorist events and terror deaths over the next year. Second, this negative effect is particularly pronounced for operationally more difficult attack types, which are more dependent on public support for terrorism. Third, using survey data, we show that longer and more intense Ramadan fasting lowers the share of respondents who consider religiously motivated violence to be justified. These findings imply that intense religious experiences may not be a breeding ground for terrorism. Quite the opposite, they can decrease public support for terrorism and, consequently, terrorist attacks.

Review of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms, by Amy B. Zegart

Since 9/11 there have been scores of publications focusing on the United States Intelligence Community's failure to prevent that day's tragedies. Amy Zegart's “Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: the History and Future of American Intelligence” [1] is a welcomed departure from this trend. The main difference is that Zegart attempts to explain what the United States Intelligence Community—or USIC it is commonly called in government acronymese—actually does and how it carries out its mission. Zegart's main thesis is that the USIC is falling behind in its mission to most accurately inform our nation's policy makers because it is failing to adapt to the rapidly increasing availability of information to anyone. She does this using various examples of terrorism and other global events of the last two-plus decades.

Information-analytical technology for monitoring the flow of visitors to the university

In the 21st century, one of the most widespread problems in developed countries is the unraveling of complex tasks related to the security of citizens. An example is the need to conduct a security check at universities, when at one checkpoint there may be a need to let a thousand people pass within 5 minutes. Inspection of each (even a formal presentation of the document) will lead to the disruption of 4 classes; automated turnstiles will not ensure quality inspection + queues will be created (or will require many turnstiles that will actually be used for a short time). The Covid'19 pandemic only transfers the problem to another plane - a distance of one and a half meters + the risk of infecting the guard, who will turn into a source of infection. Military and, especially, terrorist events (when civil infrastructure objects with a large concentration of civilians become the targets of attacks) in Ukraine show the need to simultaneously ensure high throughput and for people and the safety of the object itself. The paper considers the concept of impersonal monitoring of the number of visitors. A safe approach is considered, when a recognition system based on the use of artificial neural networks allows checking and accompanying a large number of people impersonally at the same time. The system is implemented as a pattern recognition technology with statistical analysis. The system (visualization in the figures in the text) was tested on the video streams of the security cameras of the main building of the Lviv Polytechnic. The purpose of the work is the first phase of testing the hypothesis of the possibility of impersonal verification by using several impersonal classifiers. In the work, people are recognized not by their faces, but by a large set of parameters that allow classifying a person, but not identifying them.

Psychological and Physical Lived Experiences of Journalists Covering Terrorism in Kenya

This research is based on 28 in-depth interviews with Kenya-based journalists who report terrorism. The objective of the research was to recount their lived experiences. The theme of safety of journalists comprised psychological and physical safety of the newspeople, and there were various ways in which the psychological and individual safety of the journalists covering terrorism and related events was at risk. The psychological safety included traumatic events leading to sleeplessness and nightmares, loss of memory, and some journalists resorting to alcohol abuse in a bid to cope with the traumatic experiences. These physical safety concerns for some journalists included threats of death by fanatical religious groups, while other participants said that they were threatened with death because of their coverage of terrorism and related activities in Kenya.

Terrorism, banking, and informal savings: Evidence from Nigeria

Conflict-affected societies have lower levels of economic growth. The financial development literature argues that one mechanism behind this is conflict increasing instability, lowering savings. However, the development studies literature highlights that conflict increases precautionary savings. I address this ambiguity arguing that savings do not necessarily fall, rather people opt for informal over formal savings channels as the latter are perceived as vulnerable to conflict. Informal savings are not recorded, explaining why some studies find that savings fall. The analysis uses data from the Nigerian General Household Survey Panel and the Global Terrorism Database with a dose response difference-in-difference model, exploiting variation in terrorism events within 500 5-km-squared locations over 2010–2018. The results confirm my intuition and are robust to several exercises, including to potential bias from heterogeneous time-dependent and dynamic treatment effects. Mechanism analysis suggest that post-conflict changes in risk aversity plays a role. The study ends with policy insights.

Terrorized by Immigration? Threat Perceptions and Policy Preferences

ABSTRACT Does exposure to terrorism affect attitudes toward immigration policy? If so, is it the sense of threat that impacts these attitudes? Previous studies could not find conclusive evidence of increasing hostility toward out-groups as a direct consequence of terrorist events, as they struggle to separate attitudinal migration policy preferences and reactions to terrorism. Drawing on intergroup threat theory, we conducted two original public opinion polls (N = 954) in Israel, using a unique model that refined both the measure of the intensity of exposure to terrorism–more intensive (Study 1) and less intensive (Study 2)—and differences in the measure of different levels of geographic proximity to the attacks (high/low). Results indicate that in times of intense terror attacks, high levels of exposure to such attacks affect people’s conflict-related threat perceptions, which drive their support for exclusionary migration policies. These findings improve our understanding of the spillover effects of terrorism on public opinion about migrants who are not involved in the conflict that prompts the terror attacks.

Emergency Escape Route Design and Application

This paper uses k-means clustering algorithm, single objective optimization model and multisource multi-sink problem shortest path algorithm to obtain the optimal path algorithm for emergency evacuation and the shortest time model.Firstly, a code of conduct for the division of terrorist attacks has been established. The number of casualties in various incidents and the scope of destructive power to public areas are counted. A three-dimensional cluster core is selected. All terrorist at- tacks are classified into three levels: level 1-3 by the k-means clustering algorithm, and the degree of harm is gradually increasing.Secondly, the optimal path from each venue to the stairway is calculated. The re- lationship between the speed of flow and the number of evacuees is given in the case of three situations. The multi-source multi-sink problem is transformed into a single- source shortest path problem by adding a virtual node to all venues on the second floor of the Louvre, and the Dijkstra algorithm is called once to obtain the optimal path from the venue to all stairs.The Final step is to establish an emergency evacuation optimization model with the minimum evacuation time as the objective function. The overall evacuation time is divided into the personnel response time, the horizontal road walking time, the time down the stairs, and the waiting time when congestion occurs. the open number of emergency exits can be judging by different levels of terrorist events, and the optimal evacuation path and the shortest time for different emergency events are given. At the same time, we also analyzed the changing trend of velocity in different cases, which can be adjusted according to the actual conditions.

Battling to dominate the discursive terrain: how Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron have framed terrorist incidents on Twitter

This article seeks to examine how the issue of terrorism has been framed by Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Marine Le Pen has been eager to exploit these incidents since they fit neatly within her xenophobic and nationalist discourse. On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron seeks to transcend traditional political boundaries and foster unity. These different strategies in framing terrorism will be the focus of this article. In addition, the article will examine whether there are elements of populist contagion in Macron’s framing. The analysis is centred around two terrorist events that occurred in 2020: (1) Samuel Paty’s murder and (2) the Nice knife attack. The data were collected from the Twitter accounts of Le Pen and Macron and analysed via the latent Dirichlet allocation generative statistical model. The result is an in-depth analysis that showcases the different framing strategies of the two case studies regarding terrorism.

Impact of Domestic Terrorism on Economy: A Literature Review

Terrorism has had a substantial economic effect all over the world. Statistical analysis from the literature review demonstrates the costs of the global economy at approximately 33 billion dollars in 2018 and 855 billion dollars since 2000 (Iqbal et al., 2019). After the domestic terror attacks on 11 September 2001, terrorism increased dramatically, with the sharpest upsurge between 2011 and 2014 following the post-Arab uprising violence in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt. With the rise of the Islamic State terrorist group in the Middle East, conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan became more intense. The imposition of economic sanctions has been related to an increase in domestic terrorism, postulating that when sanctions impair the financial functioning of the target country, feelings of bitterness and despair are intensified among the poor, who may lash out by turning to domestic terrorism. Terror events would appear more likely where states fail to provide, or reduce, an economic safety net to mitigate the transformative effects of economic development. Financial performance generally leads to terrorist violence. Economic sanctions lead to a rise in the rate of domestic terrorism. Terrorism is rarely found to influence growth in bivariate and trivariate specifications causally. Countries featuring minority groups’ economic discrimination are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks. In contrast, countries lacking minority groups or whose minorities do not face discrimination are considerably less likely to experience terrorism. Highly democratic and long-enduring states are less prone to domestic terrorism than less democratic states.

How much water supply resilience is enough? – A discussion paper

Resilience for water supply systems is the ability to maintain supply when the system is impacted by a disruption from the norm. It is not just about source reliability. It includes all manner of infrastructure failures and natural disasters, and even terrorist and war events. There is a spectrum of failure scenarios ranging from relatively short local supply area outages through to city wide total losses of supply, and the associated consequences range from inconvenience to catastrophic. Whatever the nature of a supply disruption, there will be a resilience measure which could be taken to reduce its impact, but could it be justified particularly when there is a small probability of it ever being needed. It is proposed guidance about how much resilience is needed could be obtained from existing level of service standards, even though those standards might not be used locally or be directly related to water supply. The paper investigated two ends of the resilience spectrum, frequently and exceptionally infrequently resilience needed events. It was found that most Australian water supply authorities are providing a similar level of service, and consistent with a 10 to 15-year standard for frequently occurring resilience events. Storage tanks are the main source of resilience for many water supply areas for such events and have historically been sized using qualitative methods. This paper discusses the more effective use of quantitative methods. At the other end of the spectrum resilience is capable of maintaining supply in events with average recurrence intervals of 1,000 to <10,000 years is specified by published emergency risk guidelines. A high-level review of Queensland urban centres found resilience to meet all types of failure scenarios, not just droughts, approaching a 10,000-year standard could be provided in conjunction with high level of water restrictions if independent water source and treatment capabilities from adjoining supply areas were interconnected.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ПОДАЧІ ІНФОРМАЦІЇ ПРО ВІЙНУ РОСІЇ ПРОТИ УКРАЇНИ НА РЕСУРСІ ІНФОРМАЦІЙНОГО АГЕНТСТВА “ASSOCIATED PRESS”

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has shaken stability and peace in the world. The daily destruction of infrastructure as a result of enemy shelling, the deaths of military and civilians, missile terror and other events at the front pose a threat not only to Ukraine but to the entire world. That is why this topic is in the field of view of all quality media in Ukraine and other countries, especially the United States. After all, it is America that is our main partner and actively assists in the fight against the enemy. Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Associated Press has been actively informing the world about the course of this bloody war. Every day, it publishes a lot of different genres of materials about Russia’s full-scale invasion into our country. Such content is posted under the heading “Russian-Ukrainian war”. Since the media reflects public attitudes, shapes and influences public opinion on important issues, there is an urgent need to analyze the specifics of the presentation of information about Russia’s war against Ukraine in the media. That is why the purpose of this study is to analyze the rhetoric about Russia’s war against Ukraine in the content of the leading American news agency Associated Press. This news agency is reputable and well-known, as more than half of the world’s population consumes its content. That is why it is very important to support pro-Ukrainian rhetoric at the Associated Press. This media outlet adheres to the standards of quality journalism and presents information truthfully and impartially, which is why it is recognized throughout the civilized world. The issue of researching the presentation of information about Russia’s war against Ukraine after February 24, 2022, is once again gaining new importance for scholars. After all, the confrontation continues and every day demonstrates new challenges for both the military and the media, both Ukrainian and foreign. Many scholars, including M. Kitsa, A. Morgun, V. Zhuhai, I. Patlashynska, B. Synchak, and many others, are interested in the specifics of the coverage of the Russian–Ukrainian war in the Ukrainian media. All of them analyze different areas of this large system and offer their own approaches, theories and concepts on the issue under study.

Pakistan's Security Risks and Their Impact on the Construction of "the Belt and Road" Project

Pakistan is one of the countries most affected by the threat of terrorism in the world. The frequent occurrence of terrorist events and the cross-border combination of terrorist forces and religious beliefs are often used by terrorists, which restricts Pakistan's modernization transformation. Pakistan, as China's all-weather strategic partner and an important fulcrum country for the implementation of "the Belt and Road" project, domestic instability factors affect the smooth implementation of the strategy and hinder the realization of personnel exchanges and economic connectivity in neighboring countries. "The Belt and Road" strategy is committed to serving neighboring countries, with the goal of achieving equitable global economic development. Therefore, discussing the security threats in Pakistan and analyzing their impact are of great significance for the in-depth development of China-Pakistan relations and the steady progress of "the Belt and Road" strategy.

The effects of social media on domestic terrorism

ABSTRACT Much qualitative research has drawn an association between social media and domestic terrorism, with the studies reaching different conclusions. However, few empirical studies have evaluated whether the surge in social media participation affects domestic terrorist events. Controlling for common explanations in the literature, we conduct a cross-national, time-series analysis of up to 151 countries from 2000 to 2019 to assess the impact of social media penetration on domestic terrorism. We find that greater social media penetration increases the likelihood of domestic terrorism in countries as it supports extremists’ ability to recruit, mobilize, and train terrorists. Using mediation analysis, we also find that greater social media penetration amplifies online and political polarization, increasing the likelihood of domestic terrorism events. Our work indicates the possible mechanisms linking social media and domestic terrorism and the need to develop and apply appropriate counterterrorism strategies to mitigate terrorist operations.