Territorial Goals Research Articles

Enduring Rivalries and Territorial Disputes, 1950-1990

In this paper a set of hypotheses about the conditions under which territorial disputes evolve into enduring rivalries are tested against a dataset of 129 territorial disputes in the international system from 1950-1990. During this period only 36 territorial disputes developed into enduring rivalries. The central theoretical question I address is what conditions cause foreign policy leaders to adopt non-violent and more flexible diplomatic policies over disputed territory and, conversely, when will leaders pursue territorial claims in a more aggressive and confrontational manner? To answer this question I utilize a modified realist approach which posits that foreign policy choices are shaped by the domestic political goal of state leaders to retain their position of political power. From this theoretical approach a series of hypotheses focusing on the issues at stake in control of disputed territory, the domestic political context, and the international political-military environment of challenger states are formulated. Empirical results, based on statistical tests, are then presented and provide considerable evidence of the interplay of domestic and international level variables in the decisions of state leaders whether to pursue territorial goals by means of diplomatic and military pressure over an extended period of time.

Chinese Policies and U.S. Interests in Southeast Asia

The end of the Cold War has changed the focus of discussion of U.S. and Chinese relations from global realpolitik to issues of human rights violations, trade balances and protectionism, and arms exports by China and sales to Taiwan. This shift of emphasis is understandable. During the Cold War, however, U.S. policy makers made the mistake of imputing too much importance to China's policies in the global system, especially in the case of the Vietnam War. Now that the Cold War is over, the United States should not neglect China's role and the relationship between China's policies and those of the U.S. in Southeast Asia, still an important sphere of influence for both powers but of particular importance for China. Southeast Asians are among the first to agree on the importance of the actions of both powers in their region. By developing world standards, Southeast Asia has been very successful at economic development but the potential still exists for political and military conflict. China's policy goals and means in Southeast Asia are complex and to some degree contradictory. On the one hand, the Chinese desire a peaceful and stable Southeast Asia where they can reap the economic benefits that come from cultivating friends or allies and profiting from the trade and commerce that a quiet and prosperous environment produces; on the other, China has territorial and security goals it considers important but that, to one degree or another, are viewed as disruptive by its neighbors. Beijing's dilemma requires it to balance these conflicting goals and the probable results of the policies calculated to attain them and decide which set of policies is most productive for China's interests. As the international agreement on Cambodia, improving PRC relations with Indonesia and Vietnam, and China's attitude toward ASEAN show, China and the