Terrestrial Water Balance Research Articles

Regional terrestrial water storage change and evapotranspiration from terrestrial and atmospheric water balance computations

In this study we estimate the regional terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) and evapotranspiration (ET) in Illinois (∼2 × 105 km2) from reanalysis data for a 22‐year period (1984–2005) using terrestrial and atmospheric water balance computations. The estimates are compared with in situ observations of TWSC as well as ET, derived as the residual of observed precipitation, streamflow, and TWSC. The 22‐year mean annual cycles of estimated TWSC and ET agree well with observations. Monthly estimates of TWSC and ET match favorably with observations, with correlation coefficients of 0.66 and 0.69, respectively. However, annual average TWSC and ET estimates significantly deviate from the observations; the correlation coefficient drops to 0.31 and 0.19, respectively. A 52‐mm/a imbalance (17% of the average streamflow in Illinois) was found between the mean water vapor convergence and streamflow, which also results in a similar magnitude of error in the estimated TWSC and ET based on reanalysis convergence. This imbalance is due in large part to the systematic bias in reanalysis data. It is concluded that the reanalysis data have the potential to estimate the climatology and monthly TWSC and ET variations but are not suitable for the diagnosis of their interannual variability. This is due to the accumulation, rather than cancellation, of the systematic errors in the reanalysis data. Whether the average streamflow would balance the average convergence depends on which particular period of time is under analysis. A longer time period of analysis does not necessarily ensure the balance between streamflow and convergence, as commonly assumed in regional water balance analyses.

Impact of Scale and Aggregation on the Terrestrial Water Exchange: Integrating Land Surface Models and Rhône Catchment Observations

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) used in climate modeling include detailed above-ground biophysics but usually lack a good representation of runoff. Both processes are closely linked through soil moisture. Soil moisture however has a high spatial variability that is unresolved at climate model grid scales. Physically based vertical and horizontal aggregation methods exist to account for this scaling problem. Effects of scaling and aggregation have been evaluated in this study by performing catchment-scale LSM simulations for the Rhône catchment. It is found that evapotranspiration is not sensitive to soil moisture over the Rhône but it largely controls total runoff as a residual of the terrestrial water balance. Runoff magnitude is better simulated when the vertical soil moisture fluxes are resolved at a finer vertical resolution. The use of subgrid-scale topography significantly improves both the timing of runoff on the daily time scale (response to rainfall events) and the magnitude of summer baseflow (from seasonal groundwater recharge). Explicitly accounting for soil moisture as a subgrid-scale process in LSMs allows one to better resolve the seasonal course of the terrestrial water storage and makes runoff insensitive to the used grid scale. However, scale dependency of runoff to above-ground hydrology cannot be ignored: snowmelt runoff from the Alpine part of the Rhône is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the snow scheme, and autumnal runoff from the Mediterranean part of the Rhône is sensitive to the spatial resolution of precipitation.

Land clearance and hydrological change in the Sahel: SW Niger

In the West African semiarid belt of the Sahel, for the second half of the XXth century, lasting droughts (1970s–1980s) and one of the World's highest population growths have resulted in major land cover and hydrological changes that can be quantified using aerial photographs. This paper aims to provide one of the longest combined observations of land cover and hydrological changes for semiarid areas using a time series of normalised mosaics of aerial photographs dating back from 1950, field inquiries, and updated groundwater data. The 500 km 2 study area in southwest Niger was chosen (i) for its rural environment representative of the rain-fed agriculture belt of the Sahel and (ii) to encompass the main hydrological study sites investigated in this region over the past two decades (Hapex-Sahel and AMMA experiments, 1990–2000s). Results have significant implications for future freshwater availability and food security in the Sahel. Between 1950 and 1992, ∼ 80% of the study area has been cleared, firstly to open new areas for agriculture and secondly for firewood supply (59% of the plateaux, 42% of the valley bottoms, and 87% of the hillslopes). Intermediate aerial photograph surveys (1960, 1975) attest an accelerated loss in the woody savannah that could not be recovered on the short term. A strong, indirect impact of land clearance is observed on the water resources. Land clearance has resulted in a modification of the soil properties and infiltration capacity and has led to an increase in Hortonian runoff collected in numerous gullies and ponds. Between 1950 and 1992, aerial photographs show a ∼ 2.5 fold increase of the drainage density with the development of large drainage systems and new ponds. Groundwater data also indicate a continuous rise in the water table, mostly noticeable since the 1980s with a mean groundwater level rise of ∼ 4 m for the 1963–2005 period (+ 15% in aquifer reserves). The relatively short ∼ 30 year time-lag between the onset of land clearance and the beginning of the water table rise is linked to the process of indirect groundwater recharge and is timed with the connectivity of the drainage network and the formation of new ponds. Finally, the sustained increase in surface runoff and groundwater recharge during the past four decades indicates that the indirect impact of land clearance on the terrestrial water balance has been stronger than that of the long-lasting Sahelian drought. As the rate of land clearance increased for the past century in semiarid Africa, its main hydrological effects may not yet be fully perceptible.

Reply to comment by K. Caldeira et al. on “Modern-age buildup of CO2and its effects on seawater acidity and salinity”

Reply to comment by K. Caldeira et al. on “Modern-age buildup of CO₂and its effects on seawater acidity and salinity”

Effects of precipitation‐bias corrections on surface hydrology over northern latitudes

Under‐catch errors in precipitation gauge records can be as large as 50–100% during the cold season at high latitudes. To quantify the impacts of these errors on hydrometeorological fields, a comprehensive land surface model, namely the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), is run forced with (COF) and without (CON) precipitation‐bias corrections and other identical atmospheric forcing from 1973 to 2004. It is found that the enhanced snowfall induced by the bias corrections increases snow accumulation on the ground (by 6–18 cm for December to February), which in turn increases May to July runoff by 0.4–0.6 mm day−1 and streamflow by 5–25% for most major rivers in the northern latitudes (north of 45°N). The precipitation‐bias corrections also improve the model‐simulated mean annual cycle and temporal variations of streamflow for the major northern rivers during 1973–2004. As a result, the simulation of the freshwater discharge into the Arctic Ocean is also improved. Only small and statistically insignificant changes are found in soil moisture content, surface evaporation, and sensible heat flux between the CON and COF runs. Nevertheless, the results still suggest that it is important to use bias‐corrected precipitation in terrestrial water balance analyses and land surface modeling.

Integration of atmospheric sciences and hydrology for the development of decision support systems in sustainable water management

Sustainable decisions in water resources management require scientifically sound information on water availability. Central support in hydrological decision making arises from hydrological modelling which in turn depends on meteorological input. This work intends to show how integration of atmospheric science and hydrology, particularly the joint modelling of atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle, allows to provide decision support for two fundamental problems in sustainable water management: (1) the impact of global climate change on water availability, and (2) the near-real time estimation of recent resources and fluxes. The performance of joint atmospheric-hydrological simulations and its application for decision support is demonstrated for the Volta Basin of West Africa. First, the impact of global warming on water availability in the Volta Basin is assessed by joint regional climate-hydrology simulations. Time slices of ECHAM4 global climate scenario IS92a are dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 9 × 9 km 2 with the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 and the terrestrial water balance is subsequently calculated by the distributed hydrological model WaSiM. Results indicate a slight increase in total annual precipitation by 5%, but also a significant decrease of precipitation in April (in total 20%, for specific regions up to 70%), at the beginning of the rainy season. Terrestrial water balance variables react highly nonlinear to changes in precipitation and temperature. Second, the performance of joint atmospheric-hydrological simulations as a tool for near-real-time, model based water monitoring system for the White Volta subcatchment is assessed. Operational available GFS (Global Forecasting System) global analyses are dynamically downscaled to 9 × 9 km 2 resolution and meteorological fields subsequently applied for calculating the terrestrial water balance. Albeit a bias in precipitation simulations can be observed when comparing to point measurements, modelled river discharge agrees well with observations in 2004. It is concluded that particularly in areas with weak infrastructures, where few meteorological observations are available (or only in long delay), atmospheric models can provide reasonable meteorological information for hydrological modelling and therefore facilitate decision support.

Comparative impact of climatic and nonclimatic factors on global terrestrial carbon and water cycles

The coupled global carbon and water cycles are influenced by multiple factors of human activity such as fossil‐fuel emissions and land use change. We used the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) to quantify the potential influences of human demography, diet, and land allocation, and compare these to the effects of fossil‐fuel emissions and corresponding climate change. For this purpose, we generate 12 land use patterns in which these factors are analyzed in a comparative static setting, providing information on their relative importance and the range of potential impacts on the terrestrial carbon and water balance. We show that these aspects of human interference are equally important to climate change and historic fossil‐fuel emissions for global carbon stocks but less important for net primary production (NPP). Demand for agricultural area and thus the magnitude of impacts on the carbon and water cycles are mainly determined by constraints on localizing agricultural production and modulated by total demand for agricultural products.

Physically based distributed hydrological modelling of the Upper Jordan catchment and investigation of effective model equations

Abstract. Sufficient freshwater availability in the water scarce environment of the Upper Jordan Catchment (UJC) is a central prerequisite for peaceful agricultural and industrial development. Hydrological modelling is required to understand terrestrial water balance and to provide scientifically sound estimates on water availability. This article aims at two related objectives: First the water balance of the UJC, a hydrogeologically complex catchment located at the borders of Israel, Syria and the Lebanon, is investigated. It is for the first time that a physically based model is set up for this region that accounts both for the entire terrestrial water balance and in particular for the groundwater-surface water interaction. It is shown that the model is able to describe observed river discharges satisfactorily. Secondly, it is investigated if observed and simulated runoff components can be explained by simple lumped approaches based on 1) linear filter theory and 2) neural networks and what the number of degrees of freedom for the runoff components is. It is exemplary shown for the Ayun subcatchment of the UJC that the simulated river discharge, the direct runoff component and the interflow runoff component as modelled by the physically based distributed hydrological model WaSiM can be described by simple effective equations with only 3 to 5 degrees of freedom. Application of simple lumped approaches to observed river discharge values showed much weaker performance.

Model based distributed water balance monitoring of the White Volta catchment in West Africa through coupled meteorological-hydrological simulations

Abstract. Sustainable water management requires the quantification of the spatial and temporal changes of water balance variables. Fully distributed hydrological simulations of these variables are especially in regions with weak infrastructure challenging, because the required meteorological input data are often not available in a sufficient spatial and temporal resolution. One possibility to deal with this limitation is to provide the required input data with a meteorological model. This combination results in a one way meteorological-hydrological coupling system. Within the framework of the GLOWA-Volta project it is investigated to what extent meteorological models are able to provide the required meteorological fields with sufficient accuracy for the hydrological modeling. For this study the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 and the fully distributed water balance simulation model WaSiM-ETH were first adapted and validated separately. The research area is the White Volta catchment in the semi-arid to sub-humid climate zone in West Africa. The meteorological simulations tend toward overestimating measured precipitation sums. The coupled meteorological-hydrological runoff simulations show similar model performances as the simulations driven by observations indicating the potential of this system for a contemporary estimation of the terrestrial water balance.

Data Assimilation for Estimating the Terrestrial Water Budget Using a Constrained Ensemble Kalman Filter

Abstract A procedure is developed to incorporate equality constraints in Kalman filters, including the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and is referred to as the constrained ensemble Kalman filter (CEnKF). The constraint is carried out as a two-step filtering approach, with the first step being the standard (ensemble) Kalman filter. The second step is the constraint step carried out by another Kalman filter that optimally redistributes any imbalance from the first step. The CEnKF is implemented over a 75 000 km2 domain in the southern Great Plains region of the United States, using the terrestrial water balance as the constraint. The observations, consisting of gridded fields of the upper two soil moisture layers from the Oklahoma Mesonet system, Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (ARM-CART) energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) latent heat estimates, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow from unregulated basins, are assimilated into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. The water balance was applied at the domain scale, and estimates of the water balance components for the domain are updated from the data assimilation step so as to assure closure.

Estimating Large-Scale Precipitation Minus Evapotranspiration from GRACE Satellite Gravity Measurements

Abstract Currently, observations of key components of the earth's large-scale water and energy budgets are sparse or even nonexistent. One key component, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P − ET), remains largely unmeasured due to the absence of observations of ET. Precipitation minus evapotranspiration describes the flux of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface, and therefore provides important information regarding the interaction of the atmosphere with the land surface. In this paper, large-scale changes in continental water storage derived from satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) project are combined with river discharge data to obtain estimates of areally averaged P − ET. After constructing an equation describing the large-scale terrestrial water balance reflecting the temporal sampling of GRACE water storage estimates, GRACE-derived P − ET estimates are compared to those obtained from a reanalysis dataset [NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2] and a land surface model driven with observation-based forcing [Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah] for two large U.S. river basins. GRACE-derived P − ET compares quite favorably with the reanalysis-2 output, while P − ET from the Noah model shows significant differences. Because the uncertainties in the GRACE results can be computed rigorously, this comparison may be considered as a validation of the models. In addition to showing how GRACE P − ET estimates may be used to validate model output, the accuracy of GRACE estimates of both the seasonal cycle and the monthly averaged rate of P − ET is examined. Finally, the potential for estimating seasonal evapotranspiration is demonstrated by combining GRACE seasonal P − ET estimates with independent estimates of the seasonal cycle of precipitation.

Evapotranspiration models compared on a Sierra Nevada forest ecosystem

Evapotranspiration, a major component in terrestrial water balance and net primary productivity models, is difficult to measure and predict. This study compared five models of potential evapotranspiration (PET) applied to a ponderosa pine forest ecosystem at an AmeriFlux site in Northern California. The AmeriFlux sites are research forests across the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Costa Rica with instruments on towers that measure carbon, water, and energy fluxes into and out of the ecosystems. The evapotranspiration models ranged from simple temperature and solar radiation-driven equations to physically-based combination approaches and included reference surface and surface cover-dependent algorithms. For each evapotranspiration model, results were compared against mean daily latent heat from half-hourly measurements recorded on a tower above the forest canopy. All models calculate potential evapotranspiration (assuming well-watered soils at field capacity), rather than actual evapotranspiration (based on soil moisture limitations), and thus overpredicted values from the dry summer seasons of 1997 and 1998. A soil moisture function was integrated to estimate actual evapotranspiration, resulting in improved accuracy in model simulations. A modified Priestley–Taylor model performed well given its relative simplicity.

Diagnosis and Attribution of a Seasonal Precipitation Deficit in a U.S. Regional Climate Simulation

Abstract Precipitation from a 10-yr regional climate simulation is evaluated using three complementary analyses: self-organizing maps, bias scores, and arithmetic bias. Collectively, the three reveal a precipitation deficit in the south-central United States that emerges in September and lingers through February. Deficient precipitation for this region and time of year is also evident in other simulations, indicating a generic problem in climate simulation. Analysis of terrestrial and atmospheric water balances shows that the 10-yr average precipitation error for the region results primarily from a deficit in horizontal water vapor convergence. However, the 10-yr average for fall only suggests that the primary contributor is a deficit in evapotranspiration. Evaluation of simulated temperature and soil moisture suggests the model has insufficient terrestrial water for evaporation during fall. Results for winter are mixed; errors in both evapotranspiration and lateral moisture convergence may contribute sub...

Uncertainties in Precipitation and Their Impacts on Runoff Estimates

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies. Precipitation is one of the most critical input variables for such calculations because it is the immediate source of water for the land surface hydrological budget. Numerous precipitation datasets have been developed in the last two decades, but these datasets often show marked differences in their spatial and temporal distribution of this key hydrological variable. This paper compares six monthly precipitation datasets—Climate Research Unit of University of East Anglia (CRU), Willmott‐Matsuura (WM), Global Precipitation Climate Center (GPCC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and NCEP‐Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis (NCEP-2)—to assess the uncertainties in these datasets and their impact on the terrestrial water balance. The six datasets tested in the present paper were climatologically averaged and compared by calculating various statistics of the differences. The climatologically averaged monthly precipitation estimates were applied as inputs to a water balance model to estimate runoff and the uncertainties in runoff arising directly from the precipitation estimates. The results of this study highlight the need for accurate precipitation inputs for water balance calculations. These results also demonstrate the need to improve precipitation estimates in arid and semiarid regions, where slight changes in precipitation can result in dramatic changes in the runoff response due to the nonlinearity of the runoff-generation processes.

Terrestrial vegetation and water balance—hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model

Earth's vegetation plays a pivotal role in the global water balance. Hence, there is a need to model dynamic interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the water cycle. Here, the hydrological performance of the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model (LPJ), a prominent dynamic global vegetation model, is evaluated. Models of this type simulate the coupled terrestrial carbon and water cycle, thus they are well suited for investigating biosphere–hydrosphere interactions over large domains. We demonstrate that runoff and evapotranspiration computed by LPJ agree well with respective results from state-of-the-art global hydrological models, while in some regions, runoff is significantly over- or underestimated compared to observations. The direction and magnitude of these biases is largely similar to those from other macro-scale models, rather than specific to LPJ. They are attributable primarily to uncertainties in the climate input data, and to human interventions not considered by the model (e.g. water withdrawal, land cover conversions). Additional model development is required to perform integrated assessments of water exchanges among the biosphere, the hydrosphere, and the anthroposphere. Yet, the LPJ model can now be used to study inter-relations between the world's major vegetation types and the terrestrial water balance. As an example, it is shown that a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in pronounced changes in evapotranspiration and runoff for many parts of the world. Although significant, these changes would remain unseen by stand-alone hydrological models, thereby emphasizing the importance of simulating the coupled carbon and water cycle.

Simulating pan‐Arctic runoff with a macro‐scale terrestrial water balance model

AbstractA terrestrial hydrological model, developed to simulate the high‐latitude water cycle, is described, along with comparisons with observed data across the pan‐Arctic drainage basin. Gridded fields of plant rooting depth, soil characteristics (texture, organic content), vegetation, and daily time series of precipitation and air temperature provide the primary inputs used to derive simulated runoff at a grid resolution of 25 km across the pan‐Arctic. The pan‐Arctic water balance model (P/WBM) includes a simple scheme for simulating daily changes in soil frozen and liquid water amounts, with the thaw–freeze model (TFM) driven by air temperature, modelled soil moisture content, and physiographic data. Climate time series (precipitation and air temperature) are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project for the period 1980–2001.P/WBM‐generated maximum summer active‐layer thickness estimates differ from a set of observed data by an average of 12 cm at 27 sites in Alaska, with many of the differences within the variability (1σ) seen in field samples. Simulated long‐term annual runoffs are in the range 100 to 400 mm year−1. The highest runoffs are found across northeastern Canada, southern Alaska, and Norway, and lower estimates are noted along the highest latitudes of the terrestrial Arctic in North America and Asia. Good agreement exists between simulated and observed long‐term seasonal (winter, spring, summer–fall) runoff to the ten Arctic sea basins (r = 0·84). Model water budgets are most sensitive to changes in precipitation and air temperature, whereas less affect is noted when other model parameters are altered. Increasing daily precipitation by 25% amplifies annual runoff by 50 to 80% for the largest Arctic drainage basins. Ignoring soil ice by eliminating the TFM sub‐model leads to runoffs that are 7 to 27% lower than the control run. The results of these model sensitivity experiments, along with other uncertainties in both observed validation data and model inputs, emphasize the need to develop improved spatial data sets of key geophysical quantities (particularly climate time series) to estimate terrestrial Arctic hydrological budgets better. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The response of the water fluxes of the boreal forest region at the Volga's source area to climatic and land-use changes

The project “Volgaforest” was focused on a study of the water budget of the forested Upper Volga catchment in Russia in order to describe: • the terrestrial water balance of the Upper Volga catchment as a function of external factors, such as climate and land-use, and • the response of forest ecosystems to these external factors. Future changes of water budget of the Upper Volga catchment area were estimated from: past and present dynamics of the atmospheric, water and forest conditions, different climatic scenarios and SVAT (Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere Transfer) and hydrological models. Analysis of past climatological and hydrological data showed a large atmospheric and hydrological variability of the Upper Volga catchment. During the last 50–60 years the mean annual air temperature increased by 1.2 °C, and annual precipitation increased by 140 mm. However, no significant trend of annual runoff during the last 20 years could be found. Air temperature and precipitation changes were significant during winter and spring but very small in summer. Coniferous and mixed coniferous-broadleaf forests cover at present about 72% of the catchment area. During the last 30 years the area of natural coniferous forests (spruce, pine) decreased from 8.4% to 7% and the area of mixed forests increased from 52% to 59% of the total land area. Results of field measurements at a forest site showed a large variability of energy and water fluxes during the entire year. Transpiration of the boreal forest ecosystem measured using a sap flow method during the dry summer 1999 was limited by very dry soil water conditions, especially for spruce trees, and during the rainy summer 2000 probably by lack of oxygen in the rooting zone. Transpiration was about 10–20% larger for broadleaf trees (birch, aspen) than for spruce trees. Model estimations of possible changes in the hydrological regime of the Upper Volga catchment area for climatic scenarios suggest changes of evapotranspiration, surface runoff and soil moisture storage. Reduced snow accumulation, earlier melting, increased runoff reaction on precipitation in autumn and winter and drier soils in summer are the principal impacts on water resources of predicted future climatic changes. Surface runoff during the spring will be higher but summer and autumn runoff can be slightly suppressed by higher transpiration of deciduous tree species. Decreased summer precipitation and increased transpiration will result in decreasing ground water discharge, and lowering water levels of Volga river and of the Upper Volga lakes.

Topographic Influence on the Seasonal and Interannual Variation of Water and Energy Balance of Basins in North America

A large area basin-scale (LABs) hydrologic model is developed for regional, continental, and global hydrologic studies. The heterogeneity in the soil-moisture distribution within a basin is parameterized through the statistical moments of the probability distribution function of the topographic (wetness) index. The statistical moments are derived using GTOPO30 (30 arc sec; 1-km resolution) digital elevation model data for North America. River basins and drainage network extracted using this dataset are overlaid on computed topographic indices for the continent and statistics are extracted for each basin. A total of 5020 basins with an average size of 3255 square kilometers, obtained from the United States Geological Survey HYDRO1K data, is used over the continent. The model predicts runoff generation due to both saturation and infiltration excess mechanisms along with the baseflow and snowmelt. Simulation studies are performed for 1987 and 1988 using the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project data. Improvement in the terrestrial water balance and streamflow is observed due to improvements in the surface runoff and baseflow components achieved by incorporating the topographic influences. It is found that subsurface redistribution of soil moisture, and anisotropy in hydraulic conductivities in the vertical and horizontal directions play an important role in determining the streamflow and its seasonal variability. These enhancements also impact the surface energy balance. It is shown that the dynamics of several hydrologic parameters such as basin mean water table depth and saturated fraction play an important role in determining the total streamflow response and show realistic seasonal and interannual variations. Observed streamflow of the Mississippi River and its subbasins (Ohio, Arkansas, Missouri, and Upper Mississippi) are used for validation. It is observed that model baseflow has a significant contribution to the streamflow and is important in realistically capturing the seasonal and annual cycles.

The Observed Mean Annual Cycle of Moisture Budgets over the Central United States (1973–92)

The mean annual cycle of the atmospheric and terrestrial water balance over the central United States is examined through an analysis of observational data over the 20-yr period 1973–92. The mean quantities from this study are expected to serve as a climatology for empirical investigations and a benchmark for numerical model-based water balance computations for the central United States. Monthly means and statistics of atmospheric water balance quantities were computed from twice daily radiosonde data. These data form a monthly“climatology” and 240 month time series of the major water budget components, including the vertically integrated vapor flux divergence, the rate of change of precipitable water, and precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P − E. The mean annual cycle of evaporation given estimates of precipitation over the same area is also computed. Through comparison with observed river discharge, estimates are formed of the mean annual cycle of surface and subsurface storage and its interannual variability (as a residual). The mean observed and residual quantities of the historical water budget components are in general agreement with earlier studies based on shorter time series. The 20-yr mean water budget shows a maximum of P − E in March–April with a secondary maximum in November–December. In this analysis, mean evaporation exceeds mean precipitation during the June–September period with largest evaporation values in July and August. Thus, the heartland of the United States acts as mean net moisture source during the summer months. Individual monthly estimates of evaporation, given the gauge-estimated precipitation over the region, show negative evaporation estimates during some cold season months over the 1973–92 period. This suggests that gauge-measured precipitation is underestimated, at least during the cold months, in agreement with several rain gauge intercomparison studies. The sonde-based budgets also confirm previous studies in showing that the rate of change of precipitable water is a small contributor to the atmospheric water budget through most of the mean annual cycle. However, the relative importance of this term increases during the transition seasons (late spring and early fall) when the magnitude of the vapor flux divergence term in the atmospheric water balance is also quite small. The mean P − E estimates computed from the vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux were found to average 0.4 mm day−1 low in comparison to the observed total net river discharge. When the mean atmospheric P − E is adjusted to the net discharge, the annual cycle of storage shows an amplitude of 14 cm yr−1, consistent with local measurements of soil moisture in Illinois () and also in agreement with earlier studies. The 20-yr time series shows multiyear variations in the storage term with magnitudes of near 45 cm, far in excess of the mean annual cycle. This low-frequency variability in storage is generally consistent with the accumulated precipitation anomaly, an independently estimated quantity, for most of the analysis period.

Potential evaporation functions compared on US watersheds: Possible implications for global-scale water balance and terrestrial ecosystem modeling

Estimates of potential evaporation E p are commonly employed in terrestrial water balance and net primary productivity models. This study compared a set of 11 E p methods in a global-scale water balance model (WBM) applied to 3265 0.5° (lat. × long.) grid cells representing the conterminous US. The E p methods ranged from simple temperature-driven equations to physically-based combination approaches and include reference surface E pr and surface cover-dependent E ps algorithms. Cover-dependent parameters were assigned a priori based on grid cell vegetation. The WBM applies mean monthly climatic drivers and other biophysical inputs to compute water budgets on individual grid cells using a quasi-daily time step. For each E p method water budgets were computed and compared against mean monthly and annual streamflow from 679 gauged watersheds, assumed to be representative of the grid cells in which they reside. Procedures were developed for excluding watersheds for which this assumption was questionable, and 330 of the original 1009 watersheds were removed from further analysis. Among E pr methods, the range of mean bias relative to observed runoff, and thus simulated actual evapotranspiration E s, varied from approximately −100 to +100 mm yr −1; E ps methods had a substantially smaller range, from about −50 to +50 mm yr −1. These results agree well with previous E p intercomparison studies at the point scale. Some individual methods from both the E pr and E ps groups yielded relatively small overall bias when compared with observed discharge data, suggesting the utility of simple as well as physically-based evaporation functions in continental- and global-scale applications. For any individual method, the spatial distribution of E s across the US was significantly altered relative to that of E p due to moisture-induced limits on soil drying. These limitations were most pronounced in hot, dry areas, where differences among E p methods in excess of 700 mm yr −1 were reduced to differences of less than 200 mm yr −1 in E s and runoff. There was a correspondingly higher sensitivity of E s to the choice of E p in more humid regions. These findings suggest that predictions made by macro-scale hydrology models like the WBM can be sensitive to the specific E p method applied and that this sensitivity results in bias relative to measured components of the terrestrial water cycle. The adoption of particular E p functions within such models should be conditioned upon the comparison of water budget calculations to suitable records of observed discharge.