Terrestrial Uptake Research Articles

Lithological controls of the Mg isotope composition of the Lena River across seasons and its impact on the annual isotope flux to the Arctic Ocean

Given the importance of permafrost regions in providing the major elements to the Arctic Ocean, and the vulnerability of these regions to ongoing climate change due to permafrost thaw and landscape modifications, assessing the magnitude and characterizing the factors governing isotope compositions in river waters across seasons and space is of high priority.Towards identifying possible environmental controlling factors (climate, vegetation, rock lithology) and quantifying annual fluxes of dissolved Mg isotopic signatures in large Arctic rivers located in the continuous permafrost zone, here we measured hydrochemical and Mg isotope compositions of the Lena River main channel and its various tributaries over different seasons of the year. In general, we did not find evidence of any statistically significant (p < 0.05) correlation between δ26Mg and main physico-geographical parameters of the river watersheds (temperature, permafrost, type of vegetation). The exception is the decrease in riverine δ26Mg values that was accompanied by an increase in the carbonate rock proportion in the watershed, whereas an opposite trend was observed for the abundance of terrigenous and silicate rocks. An incontestable control of dolomite rocks on Mg isotope signature in the Lena River was also supported by decreasing δ26Mg values with increasing Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) concentration, as also observed for other Artic River basins. This relationship was mostly pronounced during the high-flow period, when secondary Mg silicate formation in soils and underground waters and so the terrestrial uptake of Mg were the lowest. In the Lena River main channel, the lowest δ26Mg values (−1.5 ± 0.05 ‰) were observed during autumn-winter (September to March), probably reflecting a dominant role of underground reservoirs and subsurface soil weathering of isotopically light Precambrian dolomites.The mean δ26Mg values of the Lena River during two months of spring (−1.02 to −1.28 ‰), 4 months of summer baseflow (−1.30 ‰) and 6 months of winter yields a mean discharge-weighted annual value of −1.26 ± 0.05 ‰. This number coincides with the value of summer baseflow reported in earlier works. Therefore, like in the recently studied Yenisey River basin, the Mg isotope signature of the Lena River water likely stems from a mixture of carbonate (−2.0 ≥ δ26Mg ≥ −2.5 ‰) and silicate (0 ≥ δ26Mg ≥ −0.2 ‰) rocks in its watershed. We also argue that the discharge-weighted mean annual isotopic signature of an element in the Artic rivers can be reasonably approximated by a single sampling campaign during summer baseflow. This allows cost-effective assessment of mean riverine isotopic signatures of other elements in both small and large rivers to the Arctic Ocean.

Congo Basin Rainforest Is a Net Carbon Source During the Dry Season

AbstractThe Congo basin, with an area of about 3.7 million km2 in the tropical region, contains the second largest rainforest and is considered as a carbon sink for the atmosphere. Here, using Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 satellite observations, we show that the atmospheric CO2 over the Congo basin is ∼2 ppm higher than the regional background during June–August, which is primarily due to biomass burning and significantly reduced photosynthetic activities during the dry season. The contribution from the biomass burning is larger than that from the biosphere during June–August. Current budget estimations suggest emissions from biomass burning during the dry season alone account for ∼72% of the Congo basin annual biomass burning emissions and are ∼40% more than the largest terrestrial uptake in the same region during January–March (wet season). Therefore, better seasonal fire management in this region is an important strategy for achieving timely reductions in global carbon emissions as set by international agreements.

Seasonal peak photosynthesis is hindered by late canopy development in northern ecosystems.

The seasonal dynamics of the vegetation canopy strongly regulate the surface energy balance and terrestrial carbon fluxes, providing feedbacks to climate change. Whether the seasonal timing of maximum canopy structure was optimized to achieve a maximum photosynthetic carbon uptake is still not clear due to the complex interactions between abiotic and biotic factors. We used two solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence datasets as proxies for photosynthesis and the normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index products derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer as proxies for canopy structure, to characterize the connection between their seasonal peak timings from 2000 to 2018. We found that the seasonal peak was earlier for photosynthesis than for canopy structure in >87.5% of the northern vegetated area, probably leading to a suboptimal maximum seasonal photosynthesis. This mismatch in peak timing significantly increased during the study period, mainly due to the increasing atmospheric CO2, and its spatial variation was mainly explained by climatic variables (43.7%) and nutrient limitations (29.6%). State-of-the-art ecosystem models overestimated this mismatch in peak timing by simulating a delayed seasonal peak of canopy development. These results highlight the importance of incorporating the mechanisms of vegetation canopy dynamics to accurately predict the maximum potential terrestrial uptake of carbon under global environmental change.

An empirical model for estimating daily atmospheric column-averaged CO2 concentration above São Paulo state, Brazil

BackgroundThe recent studies of the variations in the atmospheric column-averaged CO2 concentration ({text{X}}_{{{text{CO}}_{{2}} }}) above croplands and forests show a negative correlation between {text{X}}_{{{text{CO}}_{{2}} }}and Sun Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) and confirmed that photosynthesis is the main regulator of the terrestrial uptake for atmospheric CO2. The remote sensing techniques in this context are very important to observe this relation, however, there is still a time gap in orbital data, since the observation is not daily. Here we analyzed the effects of several variables related to the photosynthetic capacity of vegetation on {text{X}}_{{{text{CO}}_{{2}} }} above São Paulo state during the period from 2015 to 2019 and propose a daily model to estimate the natural changes in atmospheric CO2.ResultsThe data retrieved from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), NASA-POWER and Application for Extracting and Exploring Analysis Ready Samples (AppEEARS) show that Global Radiation (Qg), Sun Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) and, Relative Humidity (RH) are the most significant factors for predicting the annual {text{X}}_{{{text{CO}}_{{2}} }} cycle. The daily model of {text{X}}_{{{text{CO}}_{{2}} }} estimated from Qg and RH predicts daily {text{X}}_{{{text{CO}}_{{2}} }} with root mean squared error of 0.47 ppm (the coefficient of determination is equal to 0.44, p < 0.01).ConclusionThe obtained results imply that a significant part of daily {text{X}}_{{{text{CO}}_{{2}} }} variations could be explained by meteorological factors and that further research should be done to quantify the effects of the atmospheric transport and anthropogenic emissions.

Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change and CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks

AbstractUsing the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model‐estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model‐projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.

Re-evaluating the 1940s CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plateau

Abstract. The high-resolution CO2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940–1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO2 growth rate during the plateau period, as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO2 plateau epoch of 1940–1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr−1, depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr−1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940–1942 El Niño on the observed stabilization of atmospheric CO2 cannot be confirmed nor discarded, as TRENDY models do not reproduce the expected concurrent strong decrease in terrestrial uptake. Nevertheless, this would further increase the mismatch between observed and modelled CO2 growth rate during the CO2 plateau epoch. Tests performed using the OSCAR (v2.2) model indicate that changes in land use not correctly accounted for during the period (coinciding with drastic socioeconomic changes during the Second World War) could contribute to the additional sink required. Thus, the previously proposed ocean hypothesis for the 1940s plateau cannot be confirmed by independent data. Further efforts are required to reduce uncertainty in the different terms of the carbon budget during the first half of the 20th century and to better understand the long-term variability of the ocean and terrestrial CO2 sinks.

Low atmospheric CO2 levels during the Little Ice Age due to cooling-induced terrestrial uptake

Land carbon uptake reduced atmospheric CO2 levels during the Little Ice Age. Numerical simulations of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide levels and ice-core carbon isotope data reveal that temperature change, not land-cover change, was responsible.

Recent changes in the global and regional carbon cycle: analysis of first-order diagnostics

Abstract. We analyse global and regional changes in CO2 fluxes using two simple models, an airborne fraction of anthropogenic emissions and a linear relationship with CO2 concentrations. We show that both models are able to fit the non-anthropogenic (hereafter natural) flux over the length of the atmospheric concentration record. Analysis of the linear model (including its uncertainties) suggests no significant decrease in the response of the natural carbon cycle. Recent data points rather to an increase. We apply the same linear diagnostic to fluxes from atmospheric inversions. Flux responses show clear regional and seasonal patterns driven by terrestrial uptake in the northern summer. Ocean fluxes show little or no linear response. Terrestrial models show clear responses, agreeing globally with the inversion responses, however the spatial structure is quite different, with dominant responses in the tropics rather than the northern extratropics.

Estimating Asian terrestrial carbon fluxes from CONTRAIL aircraft and surface CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; observations for the period 2006–2010

Abstract. Current estimates of the terrestrial carbon fluxes in Asia show large uncertainties particularly in the boreal and mid-latitudes and in China. In this paper, we present an updated carbon flux estimate for Asia ("Asia" refers to lands as far west as the Urals and is divided into boreal Eurasia, temperate Eurasia and tropical Asia based on TransCom regions) by introducing aircraft CO2 measurements from the CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airline) program into an inversion modeling system based on the CarbonTracker framework. We estimated the averaged annual total Asian terrestrial land CO2 sink was about −1.56 Pg C yr−1 over the period 2006–2010, which offsets about one-third of the fossil fuel emission from Asia (+4.15 Pg C yr−1). The uncertainty of the terrestrial uptake estimate was derived from a set of sensitivity tests and ranged from −1.07 to −1.80 Pg C yr−1, comparable to the formal Gaussian error of ±1.18 Pg C yr−1 (1-sigma). The largest sink was found in forests, predominantly in coniferous forests (−0.64 ± 0.70 Pg C yr−1) and mixed forests (−0.14 ± 0.27 Pg C yr−1); and the second and third large carbon sinks were found in grass/shrub lands and croplands, accounting for −0.44 ± 0.48 Pg C yr−1 and −0.20 ± 0.48 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The carbon fluxes per ecosystem type have large a priori Gaussian uncertainties, and the reduction of uncertainty based on assimilation of sparse observations over Asia is modest (8.7–25.5%) for most individual ecosystems. The ecosystem flux adjustments follow the detailed a priori spatial patterns by design, which further increases the reliance on the a priori biosphere exchange model. The peak-to-peak amplitude of inter-annual variability (IAV) was 0.57 Pg C yr−1 ranging from −1.71 Pg C yr−1 to −2.28 Pg C yr−1. The IAV analysis reveals that the Asian CO2 sink was sensitive to climate variations, with the lowest uptake in 2010 concurrent with a summer flood and autumn drought and the largest CO2 sink in 2009 owing to favorable temperature and plentiful precipitation conditions. We also found the inclusion of the CONTRAIL data in the inversion modeling system reduced the uncertainty by 11% over the whole Asian region, with a large reduction in the southeast of boreal Eurasia, southeast of temperate Eurasia and most tropical Asian areas.

Climate and atmospheric drivers of historical terrestrial carbon uptake in the province of British Columbia, Canada

Abstract. The impacts of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on the terrestrial uptake of carbon dioxide since 1860 in the Canadian province of British Columbia are estimated using the process-based Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM). Model simulations show that these two factors yield an enhanced carbon uptake of around 44 gC m−2 yr−1 (or equivalently 63 gC m−2 yr−1 over the province's forested area), during the 1980s and 1990s, and continuing into the 2000s. About three-quarters of the simulated sink enhancement in our study compared to pre-industrial conditions is attributed to changing climate, and the rest is attributed to increase in CO2 concentration. The model response to changing climate and increasing CO2 is corroborated by comparing simulated stem wood growth rates with ground-based measurements from inventory plots in coastal British Columbia. The simulated sink is not an estimate of the net carbon balance because the effects of harvesting, insect disturbances and land-use change are not considered.

Carbon density and anthropogenic land-use influences on net land-use change emissions

Abstract. We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. We use the latest gridded data for historical and future land-use changes, which includes estimates for the impact of forest harvesting and secondary forest regrowth. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate–carbon feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last 300 yr. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that land-use change emissions estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 land-use scenario. The estimate of future uptake obtained here is smaller than the native values from the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product.

Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle‐climate simulations

The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean‐sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

Oceanic and terrestrial biospheric CO2 uptake estimated from atmospheric potential oxygen observed at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, and Syowa, Antarctica

ABSTRACTSimultaneous measurements of the atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and CO2 concentration were made at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, and Syowa, Antarctica for the period 2001–2009. Based on these measurements, the observed atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) values were calculated. The APO variations produced by changes in the oceanic heat content were estimated using an atmospheric transport model and heat-driven air–sea O2 (N2) fluxes, and then subtracted from observed interannual variations of APO. The oceanic CO2 uptake derived from the resulting ‘corrected’ secular trend of APO showed interannual variability of less than ±0.6 GtC yr−1, significantly smaller than that derived from the ‘uncorrected’ trend of APO (±0.9 GtC yr−1). The average CO2 uptake during the period 2001–2009 was estimated to be 2.9±0.7 and 0.8±0.9 GtC yr−1 for the ocean and terrestrial biosphere, respectively. By excluding the influence of El Niño around 2002–2003, the terrestrial biospheric CO2 uptake for the period 2004–2009 increased to 1.5±0.9 GtC yr−1, while the oceanic uptake decreased slightly to 2.8±0.8 GtC yr−1.

Time and space variations of the O2/N2 ratio in the troposphere over Japan and estimation of the global CO2 budget for the period 2000–2010

ABSTRACTSystematic measurements of the atmospheric O2/N2 ratio have been made using aircraft and ground-based stations in Japan since 1999. The observed seasonal cycles of the O2/N2 ratio and atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) vary almost in opposite phase to that of the CO2 concentration at all altitudes, and their amplitudes and phases are generally reduced and delayed, respectively, with increasing altitude. Simulations of APO using two atmospheric transport models reproduce general features of the observed seasonal cycle, but both models fail to reproduce the phase at an altitude ranging from 8 km to the tropopause. By analysing the observed secular trends of APO and CO2 concentration, and assuming a global net oceanic O2 outgassing of 0.2±0.5 GtC yr−1, we estimate global average terrestrial biospheric and oceanic CO2 uptake for the period 2000–2010 to be 1.0±0.8 and 2.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, respectively.

Recent global CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; flux inferred from atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; observations and its regional analyses

Abstract. The net surface exchange of CO2 for the years 2002–2007 is inferred from 12 181 atmospheric CO2 concentration data with a time-dependent Bayesian synthesis inversion scheme. Monthly CO2 fluxes are optimized for 30 regions of the North America and 20 regions for the rest of the globe. Although there have been many previous multiyear inversion studies, the reliability of atmospheric inversion techniques has not yet been systematically evaluated for quantifying regional interannual variability in the carbon cycle. In this study, the global interannual variability of the CO2 flux is found to be dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, particularly by tropical land, and the variations of regional terrestrial carbon fluxes are closely related to climate variations. These interannual variations are mostly caused by abnormal meteorological conditions in a few months in the year or part of a growing season and cannot be well represented using annual means, suggesting that we should pay attention to finer temporal climate variations in ecosystem modeling. We find that, excluding fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, terrestrial ecosystems and oceans absorb an average of 3.63 ± 0.49 and 1.94 ± 0.41 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The terrestrial uptake is mainly in northern land while the tropical and southern lands contribute 0.62 ± 0.47, and 0.67 ± 0.34 Pg C yr−1 to the sink, respectively. In North America, terrestrial ecosystems absorb 0.89 ± 0.18 Pg C yr−1 on average with a strong flux density found in the south-east of the continent.

Impact of CO2measurement bias on CarbonTracker surface flux estimates

[1] For over 20 years, atmospheric measurements of CO2 dry air mole fractions have been used to derive estimates of CO2 surface fluxes. Historically, only a few research laboratories made these measurements. Today, many laboratories are making CO2 observations using a variety of analysis techniques and, in some instances, using different calibration scales. As a result, the risk of biases in individual CO2 mole fraction records, or even in complete monitoring networks, has increased over the last decades. Ongoing experiments comparing independent, well-calibrated measurements of atmospheric CO2 show that biases can and do exist between measurement records. Biases in measurements create artificial spatial and temporal CO2 gradients, which are then interpreted by an inversion system, leading to erroneous flux estimates. Here we evaluate the impact of a constant bias introduced into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) quasi-continuous measurement record at the Park Falls, Wisconsin (LEF), tall tower site on CarbonTracker flux estimates. We derive a linear relationship between the magnitude of the introduced bias at LEF and the CarbonTracker surface flux responses. Temperate North American net flux estimates are most sensitive to a bias at LEF in our CarbonTracker inversion, and its linear response rate is 68 Tg C yr−1 (∼10% of the estimated North American annual terrestrial uptake) for every 1 ppm of bias in the LEF record. This sensitivity increases when (1) measurement biases approached assumed model errors and (2) fewer other measurement records are available to anchor the flux estimates despite the presence of bias in one record. Flux estimate errors are also calculated beyond North America. For example, biospheric uptake in Europe and boreal Eurasia combined increases by 25 Tg C yr−1 per ppm CO2 to partially compensate for changes in the North American flux totals. These results illustrate the importance of well-calibrated, high-precision CO2 dry air mole fraction measurements, as well as the value of an effective strategy for detecting bias in measurements. This study stresses the need for a monitoring network with the necessary density to anchor regional, continental, and hemispheric fluxes more tightly and to lessen the impact of potentially undetected biases in observational networks operated by different national and international research programs.

Atmosphericδ13CO2and its relation topCO2and deep oceanδ13C during the late Pleistocene

The ratio of the stable carbon isotopes of atmospheric CO2 (δ13CO2) contains valuable information on the processes which are operating on the global carbon cycle. However, current δ13CO2 ice core records are still limited in both resolution and temporal coverage, as well as precision. In this study we performed simulations with the carbon cycle box model BICYCLE with special emphasis on atmospheric δ13CO2, proposing how changes in δ13CO2 might have evolved over the last 740,000 years. We furthermore analyze the relationship between atmospheric δ13CO2, pCO2, and deep ocean δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) (δ13CDIC) in both our modeling framework and proxy records (when available). Our analyses show that mean ocean and deep Pacific δ13CDIC are mainly controlled by the glacial/interglacial uptake and release of carbon temporarily stored in the terrestrial biosphere during warmer climate periods. In contrast glacial/interglacial changes in pCO2 and δ13CO2 represent mainly a mixture of ocean-related processes superimposed on the slow glacial/interglacial change in terrestrial carbon storage. The different processes influencing atmospheric δ13CO2 largely compensate each other and cancel all variability with frequencies of 1/100 kyr−1. Large excursions in δ13CO2 can a priori be expected, as any small phase difference between the relative timing of the dominant and opposite sign processes might create large changes in δ13CO2. Amplitudes in δ13CO2 caused by fast terrestrial uptake or release during millennial-scale climate variability depend not only on the amount of transferred carbon but also on the speed of these changes. Those which occur on timescales shorter than a millennium are not detectable in δ13CO2 because of gas exchange equilibration with the surface ocean. The δ13CO2 signal of fast processes, on the other hand, is largely attenuated in ice core records during the firnification and gas enclosure. We therefore suggest to measure δ13CO2 with priority on ice cores with high temporal resolution and select times with rather fast climatic changes.

Differences between trends in atmospheric CO2 and the reported trends in anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Averaged annual accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere, dCa/dt, has been slowing from peak growth in 2002/2003 associated with anomalous climate-induced emissions at high northern latitudes. This slowing is widespread but determined with greatest certainty in the largest well-mixed portion of the global troposphere (30◦S–90◦S). We rely on atmospheric mixing for global integration and selection of atmospheric data for spatial representativeness. Prior to 2002/2003, after empirical adjustment for perturbations associated with ENSO and volcanic activity (EV), dCa/dt increases are well represented by linear regression, using direct monitoring records from 1990 or 1965, also from preindustrial times using archived air. In contrast,modelled atmospheric trends due to reported emissions dCE/dt (assuming historically consistent oceanic and terrestrial uptake mechanisms), agree with dCa/dt or dCa/dt-EV up until 1990, are near-stable through the 1990s and increase by 29% between 2000 and 2008. Using atmospheric constraints based on trends in both dCa/dt-EV and interhemispheric gradient, the differences between trends in dCE/dt and atmospheric CO2 growth are most simply explained as an artefact of underestimating 1994–2003 emissions by around 6%. This is achieved with a near constant post-1965 airborne fraction; otherwise unusually complicated sink changes are required for the period.

Role of terrestrial ecosystems in determining CO2 stabilization and recovery behaviour

Terrestrial ecosystems are sensitive to climate and can also influence it through both biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks. Natural carbon uptake by ecosystems will control future evolution of CO2 and climate, but the ecosystems themselves may be committed to long-term changes. Here we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle GCM with dynamic vegetation to investigate the policy-relevance of these feedbacks in several idealized scenarios. Our results show that the natural carbon cycle in the ocean and on land controls the recovery of atmospheric CO2 following emissions reductions at three action points during the 21st century. Initial rates of recovery are similar but for different reasons. Ocean carbon uptake exceeds terrestrial uptake, with higher CO2 levels leading to increased ocean uptake whereas on land greater climate change at higher CO2 leads to decreased carbon storage. There are long-term committed changes to terrestrial ecosystems which vary in sign regionally and create a complex dynamic response of terrestrial carbon storage as it slowly approaches a new steady state. Neither stabilization nor CO2 recovery allows ecosystems to recover back to their initial state and the ecosystems continue to respond for decades or even centuries following emissions reductions. These long-term committed changes, in addition to realized, transient changes, must be considered when defining dangerous climate change and identifying emission-pathways to avoid it.