Superposed epoch analysis is often used to demonstrate an effect or a periodicity. This method of analysis was originally proposed by Chree (Some phenomena of sunspots and of terrestrial magnetism at Kew observatory. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London Series A 212, 75) and applied for studying the time variation of geophysical data. In its first application, Chree reported a 27-day periodicity (recurrence tendency) in geomagnetic data. Since then this method of analysis is being used in several disciplines either for testing the relationship between two diverse phenomena or to search for periodicities in the data. In addition to cosmic ray physics, various fields of research in which this method of analysis is often used include solar, magnetospheric, heliospheric, ionospheric and atmospheric physics as well as astrophysics and meteorology/climatology etc. Although a powerful method, an appropriate procedure to test the level of significance (statistical reality) of the obtained results is still lacking. This is highly desirable as, in the absence of a suitable test, a spurious/undesirable signal may appear as a ‘genuine’ effect. This paper describes two techniques with application, one based on t-test and other on F-test, to test the significance level of results obtained on the basis of superposed epoch (Chree) analysis. Since most of the data acquired in atmosphere and space show a solar cycle variation, an appropriate procedure is also described for the data transformation (removal of solar cycle variation) before subjected to test a ‘genuine’ effect. To highlight the necessity for removal of solar cycle effect, a comparison of the results of significance test, before and after the data transformation, is also presented. Although these techniques are applicable to solar/astrophysical/heliospheric/magnetospheric/ionospheric/atmospheric/meteorological data, the procedure is illustrated using cosmic ray data. Details of the procedure to test the Forbush-decrease effect in cosmic ray intensity observed due to passage of interplanetary shocks, are discussed. Test results by two statistical procedures, one based on t -test and another based on F -test, are also compared in this paper. The effectiveness of interplanetary shocks on transient modulation of cosmic rays is studied and tested by both techniques. Both the techniques lead to similar conclusions. It is demonstrated, using both the techniques, that the effect of interplanetary shocks on transient modulation of cosmic ray intensity is statistically significant only due to the shocks whose sudden commencement amplitude exceeds certain limits.
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