Terrestrial Biosphere Models Research Articles

Insensitivity of Ecosystem Productivity to Predicted Changes in Fine‐Scale Rainfall Variability

AbstractChanges in rainfall associated with climate change are expected to affect the tightly coupled water‐carbon ecosystem dynamics. Here, we study the effects of altered rainfall at 33 sites in North America, as projected by the high‐resolution/high‐fidelity (∼4 km, 1 hr) continental‐wide Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) convection‐permitting model under a high‐emission scenario (RCP 8.5). We make use of a stochastic weather generator to extend WRF outputs, accounting for natural variability and simultaneously separate the changes in total rainfall, its seasonality, and its intraseasonal pattern. We used these rainfall scenarios to study ecosystem responses with the state‐of‐the‐art Tethys‐Chloris terrestrial biosphere model. Model simulations suggest that increases in mean annual rainfall dominate ecosystem responses at dry sites, while wet sites are less sensitive to rainfall changes. Sites of intermediate wetness face reductions in productivity, due to reduced growing season rainfall and increased water losses under altered seasonality, which outpace any possible benefits induced by increases in mean annual totals. Changes in the fine‐scale temporal structure of rainfall have an insignificant impact on ecosystem productivity and only alter hydrological dynamics, contradicting expectations based on some field experiments, which, however, are not tailored to directly quantify climate change impacts, but rather to understand the mechanisms leading to ecosystem responses. We further demonstrate how approaches following the “fewer but larger rainfall events” concept might exacerbate ecosystem responses.

Does maximization of net carbon profit enable the prediction of vegetation behaviour in savanna sites along a precipitation gradient?

Abstract. Most terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) rely on more or less detailed information about the properties of the local vegetation. In contrast, optimality-based models require much less information about the local vegetation as they are designed to predict vegetation properties based on general principles related to natural selection and physiological limits. Although such models are not expected to reproduce current vegetation behaviour as closely as models that use local information, they promise to predict the behaviour of natural vegetation under future conditions, including the effects of physiological plasticity and shifts of species composition, which are difficult to capture by extrapolation of past observations. A previous model intercomparison using conventional TBMs revealed a range of deficiencies in reproducing water and carbon fluxes for savanna sites along a precipitation gradient of the North Australian Tropical Transect (Whitley et al., 2016). Here, we examine the ability of an optimality-based model (the Vegetation Optimality Model, VOM) to predict vegetation behaviour for the same savanna sites. The VOM optimizes key vegetation properties such as foliage cover, rooting depth and water use parameters in order to maximize the net carbon profit (NCP), defined as the difference between total carbon taken up by photosynthesis minus the carbon invested in construction and maintenance of plant organs. Despite a reduced need for input data, the VOM performed similarly to or better than the conventional TBMs in terms of reproducing the seasonal amplitude and mean annual fluxes recorded by flux towers at the different sites. It had a relative error of 0.08 for the seasonal amplitude in ET and was among the three best models tested with the smallest relative error in the seasonal amplitude of gross primary productivity (GPP). Nevertheless, the VOM displayed some persistent deviations from observations, especially for GPP, namely an underestimation of dry season evapotranspiration at the wettest site, suggesting that the hydrological assumptions (free drainage) have a strong influence on the results. Furthermore, our study exposes a persistent overprediction of vegetation cover and carbon uptake during the wet seasons by the VOM. Our analysis revealed several areas for improvement in the VOM and the applied optimality theory, including a better representation of the hydrological settings as well as the costs and benefits related to plant water transport and light capture by the canopy. The results of this study imply that vegetation optimality is a promising approach to explain vegetation dynamics and the resulting fluxes. It provides a way to derive vegetation properties independently of observations and allows for a more insightful evaluation of model shortcomings as no calibration or site-specific information is required.

Canopy Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Its Link to Transpiration in a Temperate Evergreen Needleleaf Forest during the Fall Transition

Northern hemisphere evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) contributes a significant fraction of global water exchange but regional transpiration (T) observation in ENF ecosystems is still challenging. Traditional remote sensing techniques and terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the transpiration seasonality with difficulty, and with large uncertainties. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) emission from vegetation correlates to photosynthesis at multiple spatial and temporal scales. However, how SIF links to transpiration of evergreen forest during seasonal transition is unclear. Here, we explored the relationship between canopy SIF and T retrieved from ground observation towers in ENF. We also examined the role of meteorological and soil factors on the relationship between SIF and T. A slow decrease of SIF and T with a fast reduction in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil temperature and soil water content (SWC) were found in the ENF during the fall transition. The correlation between SIF and T at hourly and daily scales varied significantly among different months (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.29–0.68, p < 0.01). SIF and T were significantly linearly correlated at hourly (R2 = 0.53, p < 0.001) and daily (R2 = 0.67, p < 0.001) timescales in the October. Air temperature and PAR were the major moderating factors for the relationship between SIF and T in the fall transition. Soil water content (SWC) influenced the SIF-T relationship at an hourly scale. Soil temperature and VPD’s effect on the SIF-T relationship was evident at a daily scale. This study can help extend the possibility of constraining ecosystem T by SIF at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution during season transitions.

Vertical profiles of leaf photosynthesis and leaf traits and soil nutrients in two tropical rainforests in French Guiana before and after a 3-year nitrogen and phosphorus addition experiment

Abstract. Terrestrial biosphere models typically use the biochemical model of Farquhar, von Caemmerer, and Berry (1980) to simulate photosynthesis, which requires accurate values of photosynthetic capacity of different biomes. However, data on tropical forests are sparse and highly variable due to the high species diversity, and it is still highly uncertain how these tropical forests respond to nutrient limitation in terms of C uptake. Tropical forests often grow on soils low in phosphorus (P) and are, in general, assumed to be P rather than nitrogen (N) limited. However, the relevance of P as a control of photosynthetic capacity is still debated. Here, we provide a comprehensive dataset of vertical profiles of photosynthetic capacity and important leaf traits, including leaf N and P concentrations, from two 3-year, large-scale nutrient addition experiments conducted in two tropical rainforests in French Guiana. These data present a unique source of information to further improve model representations of the roles of N, P, and other leaf nutrients in photosynthesis in tropical forests. To further facilitate the use of our data in syntheses and model studies, we provide an elaborate list of ancillary data, including important soil properties and nutrients, along with the leaf data. As environmental drivers are key to improve our understanding of carbon (C) and nutrient cycle interactions, this comprehensive dataset will aid to further enhance our understanding of how nutrient availability interacts with C uptake in tropical forests. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5638236 (Verryckt, 2021).

On the pivotal role of water potential to model plant physiological processes

AbstractWater potential explains water transport in the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum (SPAC), and is gaining interest as connecting variable between ‘pedo-, bio- and atmosphere’. It is primarily used to simulate hydraulics in the SPAC, and is thus essential for studying drought effects. Recent implementations of hydraulics in large-scale terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) improved their performance under water-limited conditions, while hydraulic features of recent detailed functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) open new possibilities for dissecting complex traits for drought tolerance. These developments in models across scales deserve a critical appraisal to evaluate its potential for wider use in FSPMs, but also in crop systems models (CSMs), where hydraulics are currently still absent. After refreshing the physical basis, we first address models where water potential is primarily used for describing water transport along the transpiration pathway from the soil to the leaves, through the roots, the xylem and the leaf mesophyll. Then, we highlight models for three ecophysiological processes, which have well-recognized links to water potential: phloem transport, stomatal conductance and organ growth. We identify water potential as the bridge between soil, root and shoot models, as the physiological variable integrating below- and above-ground abiotic drivers, but also as the link between water status and growth. Models making these connections enable identifying crucial traits for ecosystem resilience to drought and for breeding towards improved drought tolerance in crops. Including hydraulics often increases model complexity, and thus requires experimental data on soil and plant hydraulics. Nevertheless, modelling hydraulics is insightful at different scales (FSPMs, CSMs and TBMs).

A Modified Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for the Eastern USA and Canada, Evaluated With Comparison to Atmospheric Observations and Other Biospheric Models

AbstractAtmospheric CO2 measurements from a dense surface network can help to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with two key benefits. First, gridded CO2 flux estimates can be evaluated over regional scales, not possible using flux tower observations at discrete locations for model evaluation. Second, TBM ability to explain atmospheric CO2 fluctuations due to the biosphere can be directly tested, an important objective for anthropogenic emissions monitoring using atmospheric observations. Here, we customize the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for an eastern North American domain with strong biological activity upwind of urban areas. Parameters are optimized using flux tower observations from a historical database with sites in (and near) the domain. In addition, the respiration model (originally a linear function of temperature) is modified to account for impacts of changing foliage, non‐linear temperature, and water stress. Flux estimates from VPRM, the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Simple Biosphere Model v4 (SiB4), are convolved with footprints from atmospheric transport models for evaluation with CO2 observations at 21 towers in the domain, with roughly half of the towers used here for the first time. Results show that the new respiration model in VPRM helps to correct a growing season sink bias in the atmosphere associated with underestimated summertime respiration using the original model with annual parameters. The new VPRM also better explains fine‐scale atmospheric CO2 variability compared to other TBMs, due to higher resolution diagnostic phenology, the new respiration model, domain‐specific parameters, and high‐quality input data sets.

The changing carbon balance of tundra ecosystems: results from a vertically-resolved peatland biosphere model

An estimated 1700 Pg of carbon is frozen in the Arctic permafrost and the fate of this carbon is unclear because of the complex interaction of biophysical, ecological and biogeochemical processes that govern the Arctic carbon budget. Two key processes determining the region’s long-term carbon budget are: (a) carbon uptake through increased plant growth, and (b) carbon release through increased heterotrophic respiration (HR) due to warmer soils. Previous predictions for how these two opposing carbon fluxes may change in the future have varied greatly, indicating that improved understanding of these processes and their feedbacks is critical for advancing our predictive ability for the fate of Arctic peatlands. In this study, we implement and analyze a vertically-resolved model of peatland soil carbon into a cohort-based terrestrial biosphere model to improve our understanding of how on-going changes in climate are altering the Arctic carbon budget. A key feature of the formulation is that accumulation of peat within the soil column modifies its texture, hydraulic conductivity, and thermal conductivity, which, in turn influences resulting rates of HR within the soil column. Analysis of the model at three eddy covariance tower sites in the Alaskan tundra shows that the vertically-resolved soil column formulation accurately captures the zero-curtain phenomenon, in which the temperature of soil layers remain at or near 0 °C during fall freezeback due to the release of latent heat, is critical to capturing observed patterns of wintertime respiration. We find that significant declines in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) occur starting in 2013 and that these declines are driven by increased HR arising from increased precipitation and warming. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the cumulative NEP over the decade responds strongly to the estimated soil carbon stock and more weakly to vegetation abundance at the beginning of the simulation.

Impacts of the 2012-2015 Californian drought on carbon, water and energy fluxes in the Californian Sierras: Results from an imaging spectrometry-constrained terrestrial biosphere model.

Accurate descriptions of current ecosystem composition are essential for improving terrestrial biosphere model predictions of how ecosystems are responding to climate variability and change. This study investigates how imaging spectrometry-derived ecosystem composition can constrain and improve terrestrial biosphere model predictions of regional-scale carbon, water and energy fluxes. Incorporating imaging spectrometry-derived composition of five plant functional types (Grasses/Shrubs, Oaks/Western Hardwoods, Western Pines, Fir/Cedar and High-elevation Pines) into the Ecosystem Demography (ED2) terrestrial biosphere model improves predictions of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across four flux towers of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO) spanning a 2250m elevational gradient in the western Sierra Nevada. NEP and GPP root-mean-square-errors were reduced by 23%-82% and 19%-89%, respectively, and water flux predictions improved at the mid-elevation pine (Soaproot), fir/cedar (P301) and high-elevation pine (Shorthair) flux tower sites, but not at the oak savanna (San Joaquin Experimental Range [SJER]) site. These improvements in carbon and water predictions are similar to those achieved with model initializations using ground-based inventory composition. The imaging spectrometry-constrained ED2model was then used to predict carbon, water and energy fluxes and above-ground biomass (AGB) dynamics over a 737km2 region to gain insight into the regional ecosystem impacts of the 2012-2015 Californian drought. The analysis indicates that the drought reduced regional NEP, GPP and transpiration by 83%, 40% and 33%, respectively, with the largest reductions occurring in the functionally diverse, high basal area mid-elevation forests. This was accompanied by a 54% decline in AGB growth in 2012, followed by a marked increase (823%) in AGB mortality in 2014, reflecting an approximately 10-fold increase in per capita tree mortality from ~55 treeskm-2 year-1 in 2010-2011, to ~535 treeskm-2 year-1 in 2014. These findings illustrate how imaging spectrometry estimates of ecosystem composition can constrain and improve terrestrial biosphere model predictions of regional carbon, water, and energy fluxes, and biomass dynamics.

Gross primary productivity and water use efficiency are increasing in a high rainfall tropical savanna.

Despite their size and contribution to the global carbon cycle, we have limited understanding of tropical savannas and their current trajectory with climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Here we examined interannual variability and externally forced long‐term changes in carbon and water exchange from a high rainfall savanna site in the seasonal tropics of north Australia. We used an 18‐year flux data time series (2001–2019) to detect trends and drivers of fluxes of carbon and water. Significant positive trends in gross primary productivity (GPP, 15.4 g C m2 year−2), ecosystem respiration (R eco, 8.0 g C m2 year−2), net ecosystem productivity (NEE, 7.4 g C m2 year−2) and ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE, 0.0077 g C kg H2O−1 year−1) were computed. There was a weaker, non‐significant trend in latent energy exchange (LE, 0.34 W m−2 year−1). Rainfall from a nearby site increased statistically over a 45‐year period during the observation period. To examine the dominant drivers of changes in GPP and WUE, we used a random forest approach and a terrestrial biosphere model to conduct an attribution experiment. Radiant energy was the dominant driver of wet season fluxes, whereas soil water content dominated dry season fluxes. The model attribution suggested that [CO2], precipitation and T air accounting for 90% of the modelled trend in GPP and WUE. Positive trends in fluxes were largest in the dry season implying tree components were a larger contributor than the grassy understorey. Fluxes and environmental drivers were not significant during the wet season, the period when grasses are active. The site is potentially still recovering from a cyclone 45 years ago and regrowth from this event may also be contributing to the observed trends in sequestration, highlighting the need to understand fluxes and their drivers from sub‐diurnal to decadal scales.

How can biosphere models simulate enough vegetation biomass in the mountains of the western United States? Implications of meteorological forcing

Most carbon stocks and fluxes in the western United States are found in mountainous terrain, where observations and modeling are difficult. Terrestrial biosphere models generally underestimate above-ground biomass (AGB) over this region. Here, we identify methods to reduce this underestimation by focusing upon 1) biases in meteorological datasets, 2) model representation of water stress, and 3) spatial resolution. We adopted the widely-used Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM 4.5) with six different meteorological datasets and found a 6-fold variation in simulated AGB across Utah/Colorado. Simulations underestimated AGB because of warm and dry biases within the meteorological datasets that reduced water availability and restricted plant growth. To eliminate the AGB underestimation we adopted a meteorological dataset designed for complex terrain (gridMET), combined with a representation of plant hydraulic stress (CLM 5.0). Conversely, changes in spatial resolution (meteorological variables and land surface description) had negligible impact on simulated AGB.

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities.

As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

Impact of different ERA reanalysis data on GPP simulation

The performance of the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is limited by the accuracy of climate forcing data. As the reanalysis products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ERA-Interim and ERA5 data are widely used in the simulation of terrestrial carbon budgets and reveal their responses to climate change. However, the discrepancy between simulated carbon budgets driven by ERA-Interim and ERA5 on a global scale has not been evaluated. In this study, driven by ERA-Interim and ERA5, we conducted two simulations by a TBM, BEPS (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator), to investigate the differences of simulated Gross primary productivity (GPP) in temporal trends and spatial patterns and to identify the differences in climate factors resulted in the spreads of simulated GPPs. We found that by 2015, the relatively stable difference of simulated GPP by ERA-Interim and ERA5 was about 3.55 Pg C yr−1. Since 2016, the differences of simulated GPP increased gradually and peaked in the last year of our simulation in 2018 at 13.16 Pg C yr−1. This significant difference in GPP was due to the changes of GPP in the Amazon Basin, Congo Basin and South Asia, where tropical forests and tropical savannahs & grasslands were widely distributed. In these regions, the GPP of ERA5 in total was at least 3.0 Pg C yr−1 lower than that of ERA-Interim after 2016. The difference of GPP in such regions was the main reason why ERA5 and ERA-Interim GPP showed different interannual variability. And less precipitation and higher temperature of ERA5 in tropical regions mainly results in the reduction of GPP compared with the results driven by ERA-Interim. Our results highlight challenges in using ERA5 and ERA-Interim to evaluate responses of ecosystem to climate change and provide implications for reducing the uncertainty of climate forcing data in simulating terrestrial carbon cycle.

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2.

The global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing1-3, offsetting roughly a third of anthropogenic CO2 released into the atmosphere each decade1, and thus serving to slow4 the growth of atmospheric CO2. It has been suggested that a CO2-induced long-term increase in global photosynthesis, a process known as CO2 fertilization, is responsible for a large proportion of the current terrestrial carbon sink4-7. The estimated magnitude of the historic increase in photosynthesis as result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies and terrestrial biosphere models7-13. Here we quantify the historic effect of CO2 on global photosynthesis by identifying an emergent constraint14-16 that combines terrestrial biosphere models with global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO2 fertilization increased global annual photosynthesis by 11.85 ± 1.4%, or 13.98 ± 1.63 petagrams carbon (mean±95% confidence interval) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global photosynthesis to CO2, and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

Reducing model uncertainty of climate change impacts on high latitude carbon assimilation.

The Arctic-Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO2 . The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Here we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology, and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.

Rapid estimation of photosynthetic leaf traits of tropical plants in diverse environmental conditions using reflectance spectroscopy.

Tropical forests are one of the main carbon sinks on Earth, but the magnitude of CO2 absorbed by tropical vegetation remains uncertain. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are commonly used to estimate the CO2 absorbed by forests, but their performance is highly sensitive to the parameterization of processes that control leaf-level CO2 exchange. Direct measurements of leaf respiratory and photosynthetic traits that determine vegetation CO2 fluxes are critical, but traditional approaches are time-consuming. Reflectance spectroscopy can be a viable alternative for the estimation of these traits and, because data collection is markedly quicker than traditional gas exchange, the approach can enable the rapid assembly of large datasets. However, the application of spectroscopy to estimate photosynthetic traits across a wide range of tropical species, leaf ages and light environments has not been extensively studied. Here, we used leaf reflectance spectroscopy together with partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to estimate leaf respiration (Rdark25), the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco (Vcmax25), the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax25), and the triose phosphate utilization rate (Tp25), all normalized to 25°C. We collected data from three tropical forest sites and included leaves from fifty-three species sampled at different leaf phenological stages and different leaf light environments. Our resulting spectra-trait models validated on randomly sampled data showed good predictive performance for Vcmax25, Jmax25, Tp25 and Rdark25 (RMSE of 13, 20, 1.5 and 0.3 μmol m-2 s-1, and R2 of 0.74, 0.73, 0.64 and 0.58, respectively). The models showed similar performance when applied to leaves of species not included in the training dataset, illustrating that the approach is robust for capturing the main axes of trait variation in tropical species. We discuss the utility of the spectra-trait and traditional gas exchange approaches for enhancing tropical plant trait studies and improving the parameterization of TBMs.

Optimizing Carbon Cycle Parameters Drastically Improves Terrestrial Biosphere Model Underestimates of Dryland Mean Net CO2 Flux and its Inter‐Annual Variability

AbstractDrylands occupy ∼40% of the land surface and are thought to dominate global carbon (C) cycle inter‐annual variability (IAV). Therefore, it is imperative that global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which form the land component of IPCC earth system models, are able to accurately simulate dryland vegetation and biogeochemical processes. However, compared to more mesic ecosystems, TBMs have not been widely tested or optimized using in situ dryland CO2 fluxes. Here, we address this gap using a Bayesian data assimilation system and 89 site‐years of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 southwest US Ameriflux sites to optimize the C cycle parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM. The sites span high elevation forest ecosystems, which are a mean sink of C, and low elevation shrub and grass ecosystems that are either a mean C sink or “pivot” between an annual C sink and source. We find that using the default (prior) model parameters drastically underestimates both the mean annual NEE at the forested mean C sink sites and the NEE IAV across all sites. Our analysis demonstrated that optimizing phenology parameters are particularly useful in improving the model's ability to capture both the magnitude and sign of the NEE IAV. At the forest sites, optimizing C allocation, respiration, and biomass and soil C turnover parameters reduces the underestimate in simulated mean annual NEE. Our study demonstrates that all TBMs need to be calibrated for dryland ecosystems before they are used to determine dryland contributions to global C cycle variability and long‐term carbon‐climate feedbacks.

Considerable Uncertainties in Simulating Land Carbon Sinks Induced by Different Precipitation Products

AbstractPrecipitation, a key determinant of soil moisture variations, plays an important role in regulating terrestrial carbon fluxes on multiple time scales. It is a critical meteorological forcing to drive terrestrial biosphere model (TBM), however, with a large uncertainty itself. We here investigated to what extent precipitation alone can cause uncertainties of model‐simulated carbon flux from terrestrial ecosystems to atmosphere (FTA), based on eight precipitation products and a TBM, VEGAS. We find that the pattern of uncertainties in simulated FTA obviously differs from the pattern of discrepancies in precipitation, owing to divergent water sensitivities of vegetation over different regions. Globally, the uncertainty in FTA can be up to approximately 40.73% of the uncertainty in TRENDYv6 multi‐model simulated FTA which is caused by model structural and parameter uncertainty. A good linear relationship emerges between global area‐averaged land climatological annual precipitation and simulated total FTA with the slope of −0.0040 PgC yr−1 per mm yr−1 ( = 0.03; negative for carbon sink), where 70% is explained by the sensitivity over extra‐tropical Northern Hemisphere (NH). For seasonal cycle, compared to nearly constant inter‐precipitation spreads over tropics plus extra‐tropical southern hemisphere (Trop + SH), uncertainties in corresponding simulated FTA show obvious seasonal differences with the relatively larger uncertainties in March‐April‐May (MAM) and August‐September‐October (ASO). For interannual variability, uncertainties in simulated total FTA are, albeit smaller, nonnegligible, which are 40.61% (global), 38.17% (Trop + SH), and 29.63% (NH) of the TRENDYv6 inter‐model uncertainty, respectively. Therefore, generating better global precipitation product is important for reducing the uncertainty in simulating terrestrial carbon sinks.

Saturation of Global Terrestrial Carbon Sink Under a High Warming Scenario

AbstractThe terrestrial carbon sink provides a critical negative feedback to climate warming, yet large uncertainty exists on its long‐term dynamics. Here we combined terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and climate projections, together with climate‐specific land use change, to investigate both the trend and interannual variability (IAV) of the terrestrial carbon sink from 1986 to 2099 under two representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. The results reveal a saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink by the end of this century under RCP6.0 due to warming and declined CO2 effects. Compared to 1986–2005 (0.96 ± 0.44 Pg C yr−1), during 2080–2099 the terrestrial carbon sink would decrease to 0.60 ± 0.71 Pg C yr−1 but increase to 3.36 ± 0.77 Pg C yr−1, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. The carbon sink caused by CO2, land use change and climate change during 2080–2099 is −0.08 ± 0.11 Pg C yr−1, 0.44 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1, and 0.24 ± 0.70 Pg C yr−1 under RCP2.6, and 4.61 ± 0.17 Pg C yr−1, 0.22 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1, and ‐1.47 ± 0.72 Pg C yr−1 under RCP6.0. In addition, the carbon sink IAV shows stronger variance under RCP6.0 than RCP2.6. Under RCP2.6, temperature shows higher correlation with the carbon sink IAV than precipitation in most time, which however is the opposite under RCP6.0. These results suggest that the role of terrestrial carbon sink in curbing climate warming would be weakened in a no‐mitigation world in future, and active mitigation efforts are required as assumed under RCP2.6.

Canopy Position Influences the Degree of Light Suppression of Leaf Respiration in Abundant Tree Genera in the Amazon Forest

Leaf respiration in the dark (Rdark) and light (Rday) is poorly characterized in diverse tropical ecosystems, and little to no information exists on the degree of light suppression in common tree species within the Amazon basin, and their dependences upon plant functional traits and position within the canopy. We quantified Rdark and apparent Rday using the Kok method and measured key leaf traits in 26 tree individuals of different species distributed in three different canopy positions: canopy, lower canopy, and understory. To explore the relationships between the leaf traits we used the standardized major axis (SMA). We found that canopy trees had significantly higher rates of Rdark and Rday than trees in the understory. The difference between Rdark and Rday (the light suppression of respiration) was greatest in the understory (68 ± 9%, 95% CI) and lower canopy (49 ± 9%, 95% CI) when compared to the canopy (37 ± 10%, 95% CI). We also found that Rday was significantly and strongly correlated with Rdark (p < 0.001) for all the canopy positions. Also, leaf mass per area (LMA) and leaf Phosphorus concentration (P) had a significant relationship with Rdark (p < 0.001; p = 0.003), respectively. In addition, a significant relationship was found for LMA in the canopy and lower canopy positions (p = 0.009; p = 0.048) while P was only significant in the canopy (p = 0.044). Finally, no significant relationship was found between Rdark and nitrogen, sugars, and starch. Our results highlight the importance of including representation of the light suppression of leaf respiration in terrestrial biosphere models and also of accounting for vertical gradients within forest canopies and connections with functional traits.

Phylogenetic Underpinning of Groundwater Use by Trees

AbstractRoot water uptake (RWU) strategies shape climate‐vegetation feedbacks and ecosystem productivity. A fundamental relationship between RWU strategies and evolutionary histories (phylogeny) of trees, however, remains poorly understood. Establishing a phylogenetic basis for tree RWU, particularly groundwater use, could improve their representation in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that are crucial for understanding hydrologic and ecosystem responses to climate perturbations. We explored possible phylogenetic bases for tree RWU using two independent data sets: (a) observed root and local groundwater depths representing 502 tree species, and (b) groundwater, soil, and xylem water isotopic evidence for groundwater uptake representing 412 species. Maximum rooting depths (RDMAX), the ratio between RDMAX and mean water table depth (WT) (RDMAX/WT), and isotopic evidence of groundwater uptake showed significant phylogenetic signals, suggesting that tree RWU strategies are more similar among closely related species. Our findings may be used to parameterize species‐level RWU in TBMs, particularly for data‐poor regions.