Term Structure Of Interest Rates Research Articles

A Joint Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Realized Volatility

Abstract This paper presents a term structure model for no-arbitrage bond yields and realized bond market volatility. Based on well-known results, realized yield curve covariation is linked to generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type conditional covariation. The model is tractable and its latent state variables can be filtered using an exact algorithm. In an empirical study of U.S. Treasury bond data, the model shows that conditional yield curve covariation is priced in long-term yields. Moreover, the model proves useful for multi-step ahead forecasting of realized covariation. Finally, I use the model to quantify interest-rate risk and risk compensation.

Treasury supply shocks and the term structure of interest rates in the UK

Treasury supply shocks and the term structure of interest rates in the UK

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns

We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely reported and discussed in the literature, reflect local correlations of smooth curves across maturities. We derive analytical expressions for the loadings of cross‐sectionally dependent processes that tend to favor a much lower dimension than the true dimension of the underlying factor space. Numerical examples illustrate the significant economic costs of erroneously committing to a parsimoniously parameterized factor space that is informed by standard metrics of goodness‐of‐fit. Our results apply to other assets with a finite maturity structure.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

Borrowing Choices Of Local Governments And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates

Borrowing Choices Of Local Governments And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates

Implications of the Term Structure of Interest Rates for the Duration of Corporate Investment

Implications of the Term Structure of Interest Rates for the Duration of Corporate Investment

Regime Shifts in a Long-run Risks Model of U.S. Stock and Treasury Bond Markets

I study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in Bansal and Yaron (2004) long-run risks model framework with regime shifts in consumption and in‡ation dynamics –in particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and in‡ation are regime-dependent. This general equilibrium framework can (1) generate time-varying and switching signs of stock and bond correlations, as well as switching signs of bond risk premium; (2) quantitatively reproduce various other salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curve, the violation of expectations hypothesis of bond returns. The model shows that term structure of interest rates and stock-bond correlation are intimately related to business cycles, while long-run risks play a more important role to account for high equity premium than business cycle risks.

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks

Comparing the Effect of Intangible Assets and Macroeconomic Parameters on the Stock Prices in Firms Listed on the Stock Exchange of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq

Comparing the Effect of Intangible Assets and Macroeconomic Parameters on the Stock Prices in Firms Listed on the Stock Exchange of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq

Public debt management and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil.Design/methodology/approachThe model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term.FindingsContrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt.Originality/valueDespite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies.

Using the Entirety of the Term Structure to Forecast Recessions

Using a logit model and quarterly data from 1962 to 2021, we test the forecasting power of the yield spread, a popular leading indicator, and show that forecasting models that include the entirety of the term structure of interest rates provide more accurate estimates of future economic downturns. We also show that models that only include the yield spread are implicitly imposing restrictions in the coefficients of the model resulting in lower predictive power and omitted variable bias issues.

The term structure of economic management rate under the parameter analysis of the estimation model based on common differential equation

Abstract To reflect the country's economic growth, inflation and the implementation of monetary policies. Based on the monthly data of national debt yield from January 2015 to December 2019, these data are divided into 1 year to 30 years according to the maturity period, and the principal component analysis of the term structure of interest rate from 2012 to 2017 shows that the factors affecting the change of term structure of interest rate include level factor, skew factor and curve factor. The variance contribution rates of these factors to the variation of interest rate term structure curve are 82.2002%, 16.9948% and 0.6283% respectively. The horizontal factor represents the position of the term structure of interest rate, the skew factor represents the degree of skew of the term structure of interest rate, and the curve factor determines the interest rate.

Price impact on term structure

We introduce a first theory of price impact in the presence of an interest rate term structure. We explain how one can formulate instantaneous and transient price impact on zero-coupon bonds with different maturities, including a cross price impact that is endogenous to the term structure. We connect the introduced impact to classic no-arbitrage theory for interest rate markets, showing that impact can be embedded in the pricing measure and that no arbitrage can be preserved. We extend the price impact setup to coupon-bearing bonds and further show how to implement price impact in an HJM framework. We present pricing examples in the presence of price impact and numerical examples of how impact changes the shape of the term structure. Finally, we show that our approach is applicable by solving an optimal execution problem in interest rate markets with the type of price impact we developed in the paper.

Shape Evolution of the Interest Rate Term Structure

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically linked to the recessions in the post-WWII data. In forecasting recessions, the median-short yield spread trumps the long-short spread for horizons up to 17 months ahead and the yield curve shape is nearly impressive as the median-short spread. Overall, the yield curve shape is an informative but more succinct indicator than the spreads in studying the term structure. Key words: Business cycle, recession forecast, U.S. Treasury yield curve, yield spreads.

The Contributions of Stephen A. Ross to Financial Economics

Stephen A. Ross was one of the most influential scholars in the field of financial economics in the late twentieth century. Ross's work was central to several novel domains of economic inquiry. His contributions included the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), the risk-neutral pricing of contingent claims, the binomial option pricing model, a theory of the term structure of interest rates, a seminal contribution to the economic theory of agency, and insights about conditioning biases in ex post performance measurement. In this article, we discuss his seminal papers and the broad scope of his curiosity within the arc of a remarkably productive and influential career that spanned five decades and yet ended sooner than most who knew him expected.

Bayesian Estimation For Cox Ingersoll Ross Process

the model of term structure of interest rates are consider the most significant and computationally difficult portion of the modern finance due to a relative complexity of using techniques. This article concerns the Bayesian estimation of interest rate models. Assume the short term interest rate follows the Cox Ingersoll Ross (CIR) process , this process has several feature. In particular mean reverting and the other feature is remanis non- negative , so this is what distinguishes it from previous models. It is implement in the R programing.

A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate

<ns3:p>We propose a shadow policy interest rate based on an estimated structural model that accounts for the zero lower bound. The lower bound constraint, if expected to bind, is contractionary and increases the shadow rate compared to an unconstrained systematic policy response. By contrast, forward guidance and other unconventional policies that extend the expected duration of zero-interest-rate policy are expansionary and decrease the shadow rate. By quantifying these distinct effects, our structural shadow federal funds rate better captures the stance of monetary policy given economic conditions than a shadow rate based only on the term structure of interest rates.</ns3:p>

The impact of the Federal Reserve System’s interest rate channel on the components of aggregate demand

Motivation: Monetary policy decisions, through the process of transmission mechanism, affect the term structure of nominal interest rates as well as other asset prices, and thus influences aggregate demand (e.g. consumer spending and business investments) and price levels through these effects. The aspect of monetary transmission to various components of aggregate demand has been relatively little studied in the literature of the subject.
 Aim: The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effect of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years. To this aim, the scale and timing of the interest rate pass-through to economic activity have been examined.
 Results: The empirical findings showed that that between 1984 and 2019, the sensitivity of consumption and investment expenditures to interest rate impulses were different. Firstly, fixed investment spending accounted for a significant part that was responsible for the response of real GDP following an interest rate shock. Secondly, in the case of personal consumption expenditures, expenses for durable goods were more sensitive to changes in the Fed’s interest rate than spending on services and nondurable goods. In this way, the study expands the existing literature by reporting the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND THE HIGH-FREQUENCY MOVEMENTS OF THE US TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

We use daily data for the period 25th November 1985 to 10th March 2020 to analyze the impact of newspapers-based measures of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on United States (US) Treasury securities by considering the level, slope and curvature factors derived from the term structure of interest rates of maturities covering 1 to 30 years. No evidence of predictability of the overall GPRs (or for threats and acts) is detected using linear causality tests. However, evidence of structural breaks and nonlinearity is provided by statistical tests performed on the linear model, which indicates that the Granger causality cannot be relied upon, as they are based on a misspecified framework. As a result, we use a data-driven approach, specifically a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, which is robust to misspecification due to regime changes and nonlinearity, to reconsider the predictive ability of the overall and decomposed GPRs on the three latent factors. Moreover, the zero lower bound situation, visible in our sample period, is captured by the lower quantiles, as this framework allows us to capture the entire conditional distribution of the three factors. Using this robust model, we find overwhelming evidence of causality from the GPRs, with relatively stronger effects from threats than acts, for the entire conditional distribution of the three factors, with higher impacts on medium- and long-run maturities, i.e., curvature and level factors, suggesting the predictability of the entire US term structure based on information contained in GPRs. Our results have important implications for academics, investors and policymakers.