Terms Of Inflation Research Articles

PENGARUH KINERJA MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP DANA PIHAK KETIGA BANK SYARIAH INDONESIA

This study Aimed to analyze the influence of GDP, SBIS and inflation on third-party funds (DPK), in the short term and long term in the period quarterely 2008: 1 until 2014: 4. The variables used are third party funds (DPK), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and Bank Indonesia Certificates Sharia (SBIS). Mmethodology used is a method of Error Correction Model (ECM). Before the test of Error Correction Model (ECM), the models must pass the prerequisite test unit root, integration and Co integration. The results showed the models Prerequisites Error Correction Model (ECM) can be used and passed the prerequisite test. The results using methods Error Correction Model (ECM), it was found that the variable inflation does not significantly influence the Third Party Funds (TPF) in the long term. While in the short term inflation is a significant variable to the Third Party Fund (DPK).

LAJU INFLASI DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA DAN CARA PENANGGULANGANNYA

Inflation occurred in Indonesia can impact positively or negatively on the economy globally, depending on the height of the low inflation rate is concerned.If inflation mild dampat is impacting positively on the economy of a society that is able to raise the level of national income and enhance people's interest for saving becomes even higher.The recipient of a fixed regular income each month as civil servants, private employees and workers are increasingly eager to do his work activities to improve the quality of life.While the stable inflation can improve financial planning dimasyarakat better, purchasing power against goods and services become more affordable so that the necessities of life are met, investing more smoothly because the motive is not a speculative investment and bank credit more smoothly, and if this situation happened in quite a long period of time will cause the real income of the society become stable, standard of living and welfare of the community miningkat. For the corporate world in areas such as trade in financial reports produced positive financial balance while the value of the country is relatively stable, whereas the heavy inflation or uncontrolled (Hyperinflasi) resulted in a decline in the economy of the community or the slack economic growth Countries . Based on the above research titles then the researcher explores how tackling the possibility of inflation in terms of deregulation or the policies conducted at Bank Indonesia especially the Government as monetary authorities in Indonesia so as to prevent a decline in economic growth as well as the slack economy of Indonesia in particular

Observational constraints on monomial warm inflation

Warm inflation is, as of today, one of the best motivated mechanisms for explaining an early inflationary period. In this paper, we derive and analyze the current bounds on warm inflation with a monomial potential U ∝ ϕp, using the constraints from the PLANCK mission. In particular, we discuss the parameter space of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r and the potential coupling λ of the monomial warm inflation in terms of the number of e-folds. We obtain that the theoretical tensor-to-scalar ratio r ∼ 10−8 is much smaller than the current observational constrain r ≲ 0.12, despite a relatively large value of the field excursion Δ ϕ ∼ 0.1MPl. Warm inflation thus eludes the Lyth bound set on the tensor-to-scalar ratio by the field excursion.

Inflation in a viscous fluid model

We explore a fluid description of the inflationary universe. In particular, we investigate a fluid model in which the equation of state (EoS) for a fluid includes bulk viscosity. We find that the three observables of inflationary cosmology: the spectral index of the curvature perturbations, the tensor-to-scalar ratio of the density perturbations, and the running of the spectral index, can be consistent with the recent Planck results. We also reconstruct the explicit EoS for a fluid from the spectral index of the curvature perturbations compatible with the Planck analysis. In the reconstructed models of a fluid, the tensor-to-scalar ratio of the density perturbations can satisfy the constraints obtained from the Planck satellite. The running of the spectral index can explain the Planck data. In addition, it is demonstrated that in the reconstructed models of a fluid, the graceful exit from inflation can be realized. Moreover, we show that the singular inflation can occur in a fluid model. Furthermore, we show that a fluid description of inflation can be equivalent to the description of inflation in terms of scalar field theories.

A quantile regression approach and nonlinear analysis with Archimedean copulas to explain the movements of residential real estate prices

The primary objective of this paper is to explain the determinants of residential real estate prices in the largest real estate market in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. We employ linear quantile regression analysis to investigate the impact of financial market conditions (stock market returns and volatility), key monetary policy, and macroeconomic variables (including short term interest rates, inflation rates, and crude oil prices) on the residential real estate price dynamics. The secondary objective of this paper is to investigate the nonlinear relationships among variables through the use of two different Archimedean copulas with upper and lower tail dependence. The empirical results consistently demonstrate that only the residential real estate index-inflation rate relationship is statistically significant for all quantiles. We also find a nonlinear relationship among stock market returns, crude oil prices, and the residential real estate index, where the dependence structure is asymmetric and orients toward the upper side of the distribution. This study has significant implications for the analysis of real estate markets, investors, portfolio managers and policy makers.

Quantity Theory of Money Redux? Will Inflation be the Legacy of Quantitative Easing?

Since the onset of the Federal Reserve's unconventional programme of large-scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE), some economists and financial practitioners have feared that the consequent buildup of the Fed's balance sheet could lead to a large expansion of the money supply, and that such an increase could cause a sharp rise in inflation. So far fears about induced inflation have not been validated. This article examines the basis for the original concerns about inflation in terms of the classic quantity theory of money, which holds that inflation occurs when the money supply expands more rapidly than warranted by increases in real production. The article first reviews the US experience and shows that whereas rapid money growth might have been a plausible explanation of inflation in the 1960s through the early 1980s, subsequent data have not supported such an explanation. It then shows that the quantity theory of money has not really been put to the test after the Great Recession, because a sharp increase in banks’ excess reserves and corresponding sharp decline in the ‘money multiplier’ has meant that the rise in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has not translated into increased money available to the public in the usual fashion. The most likely aftermath of quantitative easing remains one of benign price behaviour. However, if nascent inflationary conditions materialise, the Federal Reserve will need to manage adroitly the large amounts of banks’ excess reserves that have accumulated as a consequence of QE in order to limit inflationary pressures.

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

Optimal inflation rates with the trending relative price of investment

I study the effect of the trending relative price of investment on the optimal target rate of inflation in an estimated dynamic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. The price of investment has a decreasing trend relative to that of consumption because of investment-specific technological progress. If the prices of investment goods are sticky, a benevolent planner puts weight on stabilizing these prices, which works to raise the optimal target rate of inflation in terms of the price of consumption. The estimated model shows a high degree of price stickiness in an investment sector and the resulting optimal target rate of inflation is significantly positive. This result is robust to an extended model in which the prices of some categories of investment goods are flexible.

Cosmological perturbations inQCD¯-inflation: Estimates confronting the observations, including BICEP2

We discuss a new scenario for early cosmology, when inflationary de Sitter phase dynamically emergent. This genuine quantum effect occurs as a result of dynamics of the topologically nontrivial sectors in a (conjectured) strongly coupled QCD- like gauge theory with scale ${\Lambda_{\overline{\mathrm{QCD}}}} \sim 10^{17} $ GeV in expanding universe. Inflaton in this ${\overline{\mathrm{QCD}}}$- inflation framework is an auxiliary non-propagating field, similar to an effective field known to emerge in topologically ordered condensed matter systems. Number of e-folds in the ${\overline{\mathrm{QCD}}}$-inflation framework is determined by the gauge coupling constant at the moment of inflation, and estimated as $N_{\rm inf}\sim \alpha^{-2}(H_0)\sim 10^2$. We analyze the equation of state in this framework at the end of inflation in terms of the gauge dynamics and confront our estimates with observations. We make predictions for the tensor tilt, $n_t \simeq -0.02$, the running of the tensor tilt $\alpha_t= {\partial n_t}/{\partial \ln k}\sim \alpha^4(H_0)\sim 10^{-4}$ and the running for the spectral index $\alpha_s= {\partial n_s}/{\partial \ln k}\sim \alpha^4(H_0)\sim 10^{-4}$ in terms of the same gauge coupling constant $\alpha(H_0)$, which is fixed in our framework by recent BICEP2 measurements of the tensor fraction $r\simeq 0.2$.

A perspective on the measurement of inflation credibility

Inflation targeting anchors inflation expectations, which are not within the sphere of control of the authorities, but can only be influenced over time by consistent policy. As public distrust of inflation figures will feed through to inflation expectations, this paper highlights a comparison of the credibility of two different measures of inflation in terms of an inflation credibility barometer. In a comparison of the barometer results to the analysis of inflation perceptions reported by other central banks, it is concluded that the barometer delivers superior results. The main recommendation is that respondents should be requested in a follow-up study to indicate whether they attach a higher degree of credibility to the overall inflation rate or the rate used for targeting purposes.

Inflation in supergravity with a single chiral superfield

We propose new supergravity models describing chaotic Linde- and Starobinsky-like inflation in terms of a single chiral superfield. The key ideas to obtain a positive vacuum energy during large field inflation are (i) stabilization of the real or imaginary partner of the inflaton by modifying a Kähler potential, and (ii) use of the crossing terms in the scalar potential originating from a polynomial superpotential. Our inflationary models are constructed by starting from the minimal Kähler potential with a shift symmetry, and are extended to the no-scale case. Our methods can be applied to more general inflationary models in supergravity with only one chiral superfield.

Assessment of four methods of endotracheal tube cuff inflation in terms of optimal cuff sealing

Tsaousi, G.; Oloktsidou, I.; Tsiaousi, A.; Gkinas, D.; Vasilakos, D. Author Information

How to Define the Consumer Perceived Price Index? The Case of Poland

Inflation perceived by consumers may differ from official statistics particularly due to different baskets of goods and services lay people and statisticians consider and by consumer loss aversion to price increases. Such effects, as suggested by the Prospect Theory, are confirmed in many empirical studies, showing that consumers are substantially influenced by prices of frequent purchases and that price increases are perceived more strongly than price decreases. Following those observations, particularly useful in interpreting a jump of inflation perception in some of the EMU economies after the euro introduction, an alternative price index, i.e. the Index of Perceived Inflation, was proposed by Brachinger (2006) and Brachinger (2008). The role of price changes of frequently bought goods and services in determining consumer opinions on price changes was also significant in Poland, especially after its accession to the EU. To assess whether this effect is of a systematic nature, in this paper we develop different indices of price changes of frequently bought goods and services in Poland, including the Index of Perceived Inflation. Then we evaluate these indices vs. CPI inflation in terms of their impact on consumer inflation perception, as proxied with survey data. The results suggest that Polish consumers observe a relatively wide range of goods and services and that both factors suggested by the Prospect Theory seem to influence their opinions on evolution of prices in the past. Having the measure of perceived inflation – i.e. the Consumer Perceived Price Index (CPPI) – that seems more adequate than current CPI inflation on the one hand and survey-based measures of perceived inflation scaled with respect to the trend of CPI inflation on the other hand, we use it as a scaling factor to derive a probability measure of consumer inflation expectations in Poland. Then we compare forecasting accuracy of this measure with respective results based on the measure of consumer inflation expectations quantified in a standard manner.

Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles

AbstractWe extend the “bottom up” approach for forecasting economic aggregates with disaggregates to probability forecasting. Our methodology utilises a linear opinion pool to combine the forecast densities from many disaggregate forecasting specifications, using weights based on the continuous ranked probability score. We also adopt a post-processing step prior to forecast combination. These methods are adapted from the meteorology literature. In our application, we use our approach to forecast US Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation from 1990q1 to 2009q4. Our ensemble combining the evidence from 16 disaggregate PCE series outperforms an integrated moving average specification for aggregate inflation in terms of density forecasting.

Strong restriction on inflationary vacua from the local gauge invariance II: Infrared regularity and absence of secular growth in the Euclidean vacuum

We investigate the initial state of the inflationary universe. In our recent publications, we showed that requesting the gauge invariance in the local observable universe to the initial state guarantees the infrared (IR) regularity of loop corrections in a general single clock inflation. Following this study, in this paper, we show that choosing the Euclidean vacuum ensures the gauge invariance in the local universe and hence the IR regularity of loop corrections. It has been suggested that loop corrections to inflationary perturbations may yield the secular growth, which can lead to the break down of the perturbative analysis in an extremely long term inflation. The absence of the secular growth has been claimed by picking up only the IR contributions, which we think is incomplete because the non-IR modes which are comparable to or smaller than the Hubble scale potentially can contribute to the secular growth. We prove the absence of the secular growth without neglecting these non-IR modes to a certain order in the perturbative expansion. We also discuss how the regularity of the n-point functions for the genuinely gauge invariant variable constrains the initial states of the inflationary universe. These results apply in a fully general single field model of inflation.

Analyzing cosmic bubble collisions

We develop a set of controlled, analytic approximations to study the effects of bubble collisions on cosmology. We expand the initial perturbation to the inflaton field caused by the collision in a general power series, and determine its time evolution during inflation in terms of the coefficients in the expansion. In models where the observer's bubble undergoes sufficient slow-roll inflation to solve the flatness problem, in the thin wall limit only one coefficient in the expansion is relevant to observational cosmology, allowing nearly model-independent predictions. We discuss two approaches to determining the initial perturbation to the inflaton and the implications for the sign of the effect (a hot or cold spot on the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature map). Lastly, we analyze the effects of collisions with thick-wall bubbles, i.e. away from the thin-wall limit.

Hearts and minds

Since the publication of Samuel Smiles's Self-Help in 1859, improving books have undergone massive inflation in terms of both their popularity and their claimed benefits. Airport bookshops seem to be particularly enthusiastic stockists. Maybe these titles attract the business traveller, or there is something about the process of transit that makes them appealing. One suspects that to be a fan of self-help books is largely a process of travelling hopefully rather than arriving at any tangible benefits.

Have Market Views on the Sustainability of Fiscal Burdens Influenced Monetary Authorities' Credibility?

During the Great Crisis, most governments in industrial countries supported their domestic financial sector under stress and responded to strong declines in output growth with fiscal stimulus packages. Starting in 2010, attention focused on the sustainability of the resulting debt burdens. We conduct an empirical study to test whether in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom, views on the sustainability of fiscal burdens have influenced markets’ assessment of central banks’ commitment to price stability. Using a daily measure of inflation expectations extracted from nominal and indexed-linked government bonds, or inflation swaps, we test whether these react to alternative measures of fiscal burdens. These include rescue package announcements, credit default swap (CDS) spreads and changes in either the outlook or the credit rating of governments. We find no evidence of a significant effect of market participants’ perceptions of fiscal burdens on long-term inflation expectations in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom. These results are broadly consistent with the view that long term inflation expectations have remained well anchored.

The Optimal Rate of Inflation and the Sticky Price of Investment Goods

I study the effect of the trending relative price of investment on the optimal target rate of inflation. The price of investment has a decreasing trend relative to that of consumption because of investment-specific technological progress. If the prices of investment goods are sticky, a benevolent planner puts weight on stabilizing those prices, which works to raise the optimal target rate of inflation in terms of the price of consumption. The Bayesian estimation of a dynamic general equilibrium model that features the trending relative price of investment reveals a high degree of nominal rigidity in the prices of investment goods. The resulting optimal target rate of inflation is significantly positive with a median of 1.5 percent. The result is robust to the extended model in which the prices of some categories of investment goods are flexible.

The dynamics of UK and US inflation expectations

The relationship between short term and long term inflation expectations in the US and the UK is investigated with a focus on inflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows for the uncovering of the relationship between inflation pass through and various explanatory variables. Empirical results are related to theoretical models of anchored, contained and unmoored inflation expectations. For neither country are anchored or unmoored inflation expectations found. For the US, contained inflation expectations are found. For the UK, empirical findings are not consistent with the specific model of contained inflation expectations presented here, but are consistent with a broader view of expectations being constrained by the existence of an inflation target.