Let α ∈ [0, 1] be a real number. Ernie Croot (Canad. Math. Bull. 51 (2008) 47–56) showed that the quantity maxA # (3-term arithmetic progressions in A)/p2, where A ranges over all subsets of ℤ/pℤ of size at most α p, tends to a limit as p → ∞ through primes. Writing c(α) for this limit, we show that c(α)=α2/2 provided that α is smaller than some absolute constant. In fact, we prove rather more, establishing a structure theorem for sets having the maximal number of 3-term progressions amongst all subsets of ℤ/p ℤ of cardinality m, provided that m < cp.
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