Temporal Replication Research Articles

A learning network approach to resolve conservation challenges in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area

The Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) is a protected area and UNESCO World Heritage Site and part of the Serengeti‐Ngorongoro Biosphere reserve in northern Tanzania. It is famous for its large volcanic caldera, unique cultural heritage, early hominid fossils and significant wildlife populations. NCA has been managed as a multiple land‐use area since 1959, a designation intended to foster a harmonious coexistence between indigenous residents and wildlife (Goldstein, 2004).

Quantifying the statistical power of monitoring programs for marine protected areas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are increasingly established globally as a spatial management tool to aid in conservation and fisheries management objectives. Assessing whether MPAs are having the desired effects on populations requires effective monitoring programs. A cornerstone of an effective monitoring program is an assessment of the statistical power of sampling designs to detect changes when they occur. We present a novel approach to power assessment that combines spatial point process models, integral projection models (IPMs) and sampling simulations to assess the power of different sample designs across a network of MPAs. We focus on the use of remotely operated vehicle (ROV) video cameras as the sampling method, though the results could be extended to other sampling methods. We use empirical data from baseline surveys of an example indicator fish species across three MPAs in California, USA as a case study. Spatial models simulated time series of spatial distributions across sites that accounted for the effects of environmental covariates, while IPMs simulated expected trends over time in abundances and sizes of fish. We tested the power of different levels of sampling effort (i.e., the number of 500-m ROV transects) and temporal replication (every 1-3yr) to detect expected post-MPA changes in fish abundance and biomass. We found that changes in biomass are detectable earlier than changes in abundance. We also found that detectability of MPA effects was higher in sites with higher initial densities. Increasing the sampling effort had a greater effect than increasing sampling frequency on the time taken to achieve high power. High power was best achieved by combining data from multiple sites. Our approach provides a powerful tool to explore the interaction between sampling effort, spatial distributions, population dynamics, and metrics for detecting change in previously fished populations.

Designing monitoring protocols to measure population trends of threatened insects: A case study of the cryptic, flightless grasshopper Brachaspis robustus.

Statistically robust monitoring of threatened populations is essential for effective conservation management because the population trend data that monitoring generates is often used to make decisions about when and how to take action. Despite representing the highest proportion of threatened animals globally, the development of best practice methods for monitoring populations of threatened insects is relatively uncommon. Traditionally, population trend data for the Nationally Endangered New Zealand grasshopper Brachaspis robustus has been determined by counting all adults and nymphs seen on a single ~1.5 km transect searched once annually. This method lacks spatial and temporal replication, both of which are essential to overcome detection errors in highly cryptic species like B. robustus. It also provides no information about changes in the grasshopper’s distribution throughout its range. Here, we design and test new population density and site occupancy monitoring protocols by comparing a) comprehensive plot and transect searches at one site and b) transect searches at two sites representing two different habitats (gravel road and natural riverbed) occupied by the species across its remaining range. Using power analyses, we determined a) the number of transects, b) the number of repeated visits and c) the grasshopper demographic to count to accurately detect long term change in relative population density. To inform a monitoring protocol design to track trends in grasshopper distribution, we estimated the probability of detecting an individual with respect to a) search area, b) weather and c) the grasshopper demographic counted at each of the two sites. Density estimates from plots and transects did not differ significantly. Population density monitoring was found to be most informative when large adult females present in early summer were used to index population size. To detect a significant change in relative density with power > 0.8 at the gravel road habitat, at least seventeen spatial replicates (transects) and four temporal replicates (visits) were required. Density estimates at the natural braided river site performed poorly and likely require a much higher survey effort. Detection of grasshopper presence was highest (pg > 0.6) using a 100 m x 1 m transect at both sites in February under optimal (no cloud) conditions. At least three visits to a transect should be conducted per season for distribution monitoring. Monitoring protocols that inform the management of threatened species are crucial for better understanding and mitigation of the current global trends of insect decline. This study provides an exemplar of how appropriate monitoring protocols can be developed for threatened insect species.

Chrono-validation of near-real-time landslide susceptibility models via plug-in statistical simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme.In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” – although not “how frequently” – landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger.In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Character displacement in the midst of background evolution in island populations of Anolis lizards: A spatiotemporal perspective

Negative interactions between species can generate divergent selection that causes character displacement. However, other processes cause similar divergence. We use spatial and temporal replication across island populations of Anolis lizards to assess the importance of negative interactions in driving trait shifts. Previous work showed that the establishment of Anolis sagrei on islands drove resident Anolis carolinensis to perch higher and evolve larger toepads. To further test the interaction's causality and predictability, we resurveyed a subset of islands nine years later. Anolis sagrei had established on one island between surveys. We found that A. carolinensis on this island now perch higher and have larger toepads. However, toepad morphology change on this island was not distinct from shifts on six other islands whose Anolis community composition had not changed. Thus, the presence of A. sagrei only partly explains A. carolinensis trait variation across space and time. We also found that A. carolinensis on islands with previously established A. sagrei now perch higher than a decade ago, and that current A. carolinensis perch height is correlated with A. sagrei density. Our results suggest that character displacement likely interacts with other evolutionary processes in this system, and that temporal data are key to detecting such interactions.

New insights on the population genetic structure of the great scallop (Pecten maximus) in the English Channel, coupling microsatellite data and demogenetic simulations

Abstract The great scallop (Pecten maximus) is a commercially important bivalve in Europe, particularly in the English Channel, where fisheries are managed at regional and local scales through the regulation of fishing effort. In the long term, knowledge about larval dispersal and gene flow between populations is essential to ensure proper stock management. Yet, previous population genetic studies have reported contradictory results. In this study, scallop samples collected across the main fishing grounds along the French and English coasts of the English Channel (20 samples with temporal replicates for three sites, n = 1059 individuals), and the population genetic structure was analysed using 13 microsatellite loci. Coupling empirical genetic data with demogenetic modelling based on a biophysical model simulating larval exchanges among scallop beds revealed a subtle genetic differentiation between south‐west English populations and the rest of the English Channel, which was consistent with larval dispersal simulations. The present study provides a step forward in the understanding of great scallop population biology in the English Channel, underlining the fact that even in a context of potentially high gene flow and recent divergence times since the end of the last glacial maximum, weak but significant spatial genetic structure can be identified at a regional scale.

Spatial replication and habitat context matters for assessments of tropical biodiversity using acoustic indices

Approaches to characterise and monitor biodiversity based on the sound signals of ecosystems have become popular in landscape ecology and biodiversity conservation. However, to date, validation studies of how well acoustic indices reflect observed biodiversity patterns have often relied on low levels of either spatial or temporal replication, while focussing on habitats with similar underlying anthropological and geophysical sound characteristics. For acoustic indices to be broadly applicable to biodiversity monitoring, their capacity to measure the ecological facets of soundscapes must be robust to these potential sources of bias. Using two contrasting recording approaches, we examined the efficacy of four commonly used acoustic indices to reflect patterns of observed bird species richness across a tropical forest degradation gradient in Northeast Borneo. The gradient comprised intact and logged forests, riparian forests, remnants, and oil palm plantations, thus providing a highly variable anthrophonic and geophonic soundscape. We compared the degree to which acoustic indices derived from automated versus point count recording methods detected variation in inter-habitat species richness, as well as their capacity to capture changes in species diversity as a consequence of forest degradation quantified by high-resolution LiDAR derived forest canopy heights. We found Acoustic Diversity Index was associated with forest canopy height as measured by both automated recorders and recordings from point counts, whereas the association between canopy height and Acoustic Complexity Index was only detected using point count recordings. For both types of recordings, Acoustic Complexity Index exhibited the strongest relationship with observed bird richness in old growth and logged forest, whereas Acoustic Diversity was not linked, suggesting avian richness does not drive its association with canopy height. No acoustic indices were associated with observed bird richness in oil palm riparian areas. Our findings underscore the potential utility of soundscape approaches to characterise biodiversity patterns in degraded tropical landscapes, and may be used as a proxy for human inventories of bird communities. However, we also show that for acoustic indices to be effective on landscape-wide studies of environmental gradients, adequate spatial replication is required, and care must be taken to control for non-target elements of soundscapes in different habitats.

A novel experimental approach to investigate the potential for behavioural change in sharks in the context of depredation

Baited video systems have been widely used to assess the relative abundance and diversity of sharks in locations around the world, however they provide limited information on behaviour. We developed and pilot tested a novel experimental approach to investigate whether repeated deployments of baited video systems in the same location could generate quantitative data on shark behavioural patterns, in the context of shark depredation (where sharks consume hooked fish). Specifically, we sought to test whether repeated exposure to boats and food in the same location would lead to a change in the arrival time and first feeding time of sharks, over a short timescale. We used the Ningaloo Marine Park (NMP) in Western Australia, a location where higher shark depredation rates have been identified in consistently fished areas, as a case study. A modified Baited Remote Underwater Video (BRUV) system was repeatedly deployed at two fished sites and two sites within a no-take marine reserve in the NMP, over six consecutive days, to mimic repeated recreational fishing and the availability of hooked fish for sharks to depredate. This approach was designed to investigate and disentangle the potential role of changes in behaviour versus variation in shark abundance, as a mechanism for how and why shark depredation can occur. Here, we report preliminary results from this methodological approach, where time of arrival and time of first feeding declined markedly in the fished site over 6 days of BRUV deployments, compared to the control site in the no-take marine reserve. A greater number of individuals from four carcharhinid species were observed at the fished site, compared to only three individuals from two species in the no-take marine reserve. The preliminary results from pilot testing of this novel experimental approach suggest that, with further modifications to identify individual sharks, and a greater spatial and temporal replication of sampling, it may be possible to identify behavioural changes occurring in sharks in the context of shark depredation. Understanding this mechanism can bring important benefits for fishers and managers, as it can lead to modifications in fishing methods designed at reducing the occurrence of behavioural changes in sharks, and thus mitigating shark depredation.

Phenology of a bee (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) community over a 10 year period in south‐eastern Australia

AbstractBee responses to anthropogenic disturbances have received much recent attention in scientific literature. These studies typically involve 1–3 years of sampling along spatial gradients of disturbance, though occasionally greater temporal replication and/or longer time periods are used at the expense of spatial replication. We surveyed bees using a blue vane trap during spring, summer and autumn from 2008 to 2017 at one location in Canberra, Australia. To the best of our knowledge, this is the longest near‐continuous record of bee activity in the southern hemisphere. We use these data to describe the temporal dynamics of the bee community, which was characterised by high annual variability in overall abundance, richness and composition and a negative correlation between spring rainfall and bee activity. The phenologies of abundant species are also described. Our findings relate only to our study site but are similar to findings from other long‐term studies conducted in the northern hemisphere, which collectively present a picture of high natural variability in bee communities that must be considered when interpreting findings of bee responses to anthropogenic disturbances.

Estimating the contribution of Greenland Halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) stocks to nurseries by means of genotyping-by-sequencing: Sex and time matter.

Identification of stocks and quantification of their relative contribution to recruitment are major objectives toward improving the management and conservation of marine exploited species. Next‐generation sequencing allows for thousands of genomic markers to be analyzed, which provides the resolution needed to address these questions in marine species with weakly differentiated populations. Greenland Halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) is one of the most important exploited demersal species throughout the North Atlantic, in particular in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. There, two nurseries are known, the St. Lawrence Estuary and the northern Anticosti Island, but their contribution to the renewal of stocks remains unknown. The goals of this study were (a) to document the genetic structure and (b) to estimate the contribution of the different identified breeding stocks to nurseries. We sampled 100 juveniles per nursery and 50 adults from seven sites ranging from Saguenay Fjord to offshore Newfoundland, with some sites sampled over two consecutive years in order to evaluate the temporal stability of the contribution. Our results show that after removing sex‐linked markers, the Estuary/Gulf of St. Lawrence represents a single stock which is genetically distinct from the Atlantic around Newfoundland (F ST = 0.00146, p‐value = .001). Population assignment showed that recruitment in both nurseries is predominantly associated with the St. Lawrence stock. However, we found that the relative contribution of both stocks to the nurseries is temporally variable with 1% contribution of the Newfoundland stock one year but up to 33% for the second year, which may be caused by year‐to‐year variation in larval transport into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. This study serves as a model for the identification of stocks for fisheries resources in a context where few barriers to dispersal occur, in addition to demonstrating the importance of considering sex‐linked markers and temporal replicates in studies of population genomics.

M80. ALTERATIONS IN TEMPORAL PROCESSING AFFECT SCHIZOPHRENIA AND BIPOLAR PATIENTS AT DIFFERENT TEMPORAL SCALES

BackgroundPrevious work suggested that patients with Schizophrenia (SZ) and Bipolar disorder (BP) both show anomalies in temporal cognition, although at different temporal scales. Recent results suggest disruptions in the processing of sensory information in time in SZ at the sub-second scale, including temporal order processing (100s ms). On the other hand, BP patients often report tachypsychia or racing thoughts, a subjective acceleration in the production of thoughts, which points towards temporal anomalies at the (supra-)second scale.MethodsTo further investigate the proposed temporal abnormalities which differentially affect the two groups, 11 SZ patients, 14 BP patients and 21 healthy controls (HC) performed two tasks. First, subjects’ ability at ordering events in time was evaluated in a Temporal Order Judgment task. Participants were presented two squares separated by either a sub-threshold 17ms or a supra-threshold 100 ms asynchrony, or two squares appearing simultaneously on a computer screen. They were instructed to respond, by clicking on one of two response-buttons, to the side of the first stimulus and their accuracy was recorded. In a second task, subjects were presented the ambiguous Necker cube figure and were instructed to report, via button presses, each time their perception of the figure changed between the two possible interpretations. Two attentional conditions were used: a “Spontaneous” condition where subjects reported perceptual changes that occurred spontaneously (without any attentional control), and a “Focus” condition where subjects were asked to focus on and mentally maintain one of the two interpretations of the figure for as long as possible and switch back to it in case of perceptual reversal. Eye movements and manual responses were recorded during this task and were used to compute two measures: “manual windows” based on subject’s explicit responses and reflecting time intervals of stable percepts of the figure, and “ocular windows” based on ocular fixations and reflecting implicit and automatic alternations between the two interpretations of the figure. The rates and durations of the two “windows” were compared in the two attentional conditions.ResultsWe present preliminary results. In the Temporal Order Judgment task SZ patients’ accuracy was significantly lower than that of HC for visible 100 ms asynchronies. BP patients’ performance had intermediate values and did not differ from the other groups. For sub-threshold 17 ms asynchronies no significant difference was found between groups.In the Necker cube task, similar rates of “manual windows” were found in all three groups, however there was a tendency towards an increased window duration in the Focus condition in BP patients. The rate of “ocular windows” was significantly higher in BP patients compared to HC and SZ patients, with decreased “ocular window” duration in BP patients compared to HC. BP patients’ rate of “ocular windows” increased mainly in the “Focus” condition.DiscussionThe findings in the Temporal Order Judgment task replicate results in the literature showing an impaired temporal order processing in SZ patients for supra-threshold asynchronies at the scale of 100s ms. The results of the Necker cube task suggest that BP patients cannot help oscillating between the two interpretations of the Necker cube. Complementary results obtained in a larger group of BP patients suggest a link with tachypsychia. Our present results support the idea that temporal cognition is altered in both SZ and BP patients but at different temporal scales.

Omission related brain responses reflect specific and unspecific action-effect couplings

When an auditory stimulus is predicted but unexpectedly omitted, an omission response can be observed in the EEG. This endogenous response to the absence of a stimulus demonstrates the important role of prediction in perception. SanMiguel et al. (2013a) showed that in order to observe an omission response, a specific prediction concerning the identity of an upcoming stimulus is necessary. They used button presses coupled to either a single sound (predictable identity), or a random sound (unpredictable identity). In the event-related potentials, a sequence of omission responses consisting of oN1, oN2, and oP3 was observed in the single condition but not in the random condition. Given the importance of omission studies to understand the role of prediction in perception, we replicated this study. We enhanced statistical power by doubling the sample size and adjusting data pre-processing, and applied temporal principal component analysis and replication Bayes statistics. Results in the single sound condition were successfully replicated. Principal component analysis additionally revealed attenuated oN1 and oP3 omission responses in the random sound condition. These results suggest the existence of both specific and unspecific predictions along the sound processing hierarchy, where precision weighting possibly influences the strength of prediction error. Results are discussed in the framework of predictive coding and are congruent with everyday life, where uncertainty often requires broader or more general predictions.

Co-occurring factors affecting ghost crab density at four sandy beaches in the Mexican Caribbean

Human pressure can cause a decrease in the abundance of beach macrofauna, especially supralittoral crustaceans. In studying the life history traits of supralittoral crustaceans, human impact and beach features (e.g. beach slope, grain size, swash width) are often considered separately. Ghost crabs are widely accepted as ecological indicators of beach quality and condition since their abundance decreases at disturbed beaches; moreover, ghost crabs can respond to natural drivers. This study aims to determine factors affecting the density of the ghost crab Ocypode quadrata in the Mexican Caribbean. We studied the spatiotemporal variation of the density of ghost crabs at two urbanized and two reference beaches by counting crab burrows on all beaches during six sampling periods. Our results indicate that physical features of the beach are significantly correlated with burrow density, and burrow density varies substantially between urbanized and reference beaches. The greater variation of burrow density accounted for beach disturbance, followed by beach morphodynamic features. Based on these results, our study confirms that the ghost crab is a relevant biological indicator species and is useful for guiding beach management criteria in the Mexican Caribbean. Our findings demonstrate that temporal replications must be included when using ghost crabs as ecological indicators.

Can time‐to‐detection models with fewer survey replicates provide a robust alternative to traditional site‐occupancy models?

Abstract Traditional occupancy models that record detection/non‐detection (DND) of a species typically rely on either spatial or temporal survey replication to estimate model parameters. Recording the time until a species is first encountered after starting a survey is often possible with little extra effort and such time‐to‐detection (TTD) surveys may be more efficient than pure DND surveys. Using continuous time data, TTD occupancy models can in theory estimate occupancy and detection parameters using a single TTD survey. However, the robustness and general applicability of TTD models has not been widely addressed and their effectiveness in different study systems remains unknown. We use simulations and bird data of 63 species from a field study in the Karoo region of South Africa to explicitly compare estimates of occupancy, detection and species richness between DND and TTD models under various levels of survey replication and for species with different occupancy and detection characteristics. Simulations revealed that for inconspicuous species single survey TTD models can perform better or equally as well as DND models with a higher number of replicates. This effect was attenuated in widespread species. The benefits of TTD models were more pronounced at low survey replicates and performance of the two methods converged quickly as the number of survey replicates increased. However, results from the field data showed that a single TTD survey was not adequate to reliably estimate occupancy, detection and species richness; especially in rare and inconspicuous species. Increasing the number of TTD surveys to two replicates improved the models substantially. Our results demonstrate that the general utility of TTD surveys depends on the characteristics of the species considered in the study. A single TTD survey may be sufficient in some study designs but is unlikely to be sufficient in most multi‐species field scenarios where communities are made up of species that have a wide range of detection and occupancy probabilities. TTD surveys do provide benefits, however, in that data can be used to construct detection curves which can be used to guide survey effort in the design of future studies.

Effects of mineral supplementation on cattle performance when grazed mature wheat

ABSTRACT This research paper addresses the hypothesis that mineral supplementation (sodium chloride and magnesium oxide at 1:1 weight ratio) for dairy heifers grazing mature wheat in the spring-summer period will improve live weight gain compared with the non-supplemented group. In addition, the potential of mineral supplementation to reduce environmental pollution through diluting urinary nitrogen content was evaluated in this study. The grazing study was conducted at the Dookie Campus, The University of Melbourne, Australia between September and November 2017. The study comprised two temporal trial replications with two dietary treatments; graze wheat with (supplemented, SUP) or without mineral supplementation (control, CTR). The first and second trial replications used 22 and 24 heifers, respectively to conduct a 22-day and 21-day weight gain measurement. Heifers in the CTR group had 11% lower daily water intake than those in the SUP group. No differences were observed in heifers’ weight gain and urinary nitrogen content and excretion. The study indicates that protein deficiency may override the mineral deficiency when heifer grazed mature wheat, and this may have led to no mineral supplementation effect on heifer performance. The level of protein in grazing wheat needs to be considered in feeding minerals to heifers.

Temporal changes in distributions and the species atlas: How can British and Irish plant data shoulder the inferential burden?

Species distribution atlases often rely on volunteer effort to achieve their desired coverage, an activity now typically discussed, at least in academia, under the general theme of “citizen science”. Such data, however, are rarely without complex biases, particularly with respect to the estimation of trends in species’ distributions over many decades. The data of the Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland (BSBI) are no exception to this, and both careful thought in data aggregation (spatial, temporal, and taxonomic) and appropriate modelling procedures are required to overcome these challenges. We discuss these issues, with a primary focus on the statistical models that have been put forward to adjust for such biases. Such models include the Telfer method, various “reporting rate” approaches based on generalised linear models, the frequency scaling using local occupancy (“Frescalo”) model, occupancy models, and spatial smoothing methods. In each case the strengths and limitations in relation to estimating trends from distribution data with important time-varying biases are assessed. Various properties of BSBI data, in particular the increasing numbers of records at fine spatial and temporal scales over the past century, coupled with a general lack of re-visits to sites at such finer scales and the time-varying biases previously mentioned, imply that methods that can be sensibly applied at coarser levels are likely to be most appropriate for estimating accurate long-term trends in distributions. We conclude that Frescalo, which can be seen as a type of occupancy model where an adjustment for overlooked species is made in relation to spatial rather than temporal replication, whilst simultaneously adjusting for variable regional effort, is currently the most sophisticated tool for achieving this. Although recording community-accepted adjustments to data collection practices may allow for a greater application of occupancy modelling or other approaches in the future, methods that seek accurate trends over the long-term are necessarily limited either to scales at which various properties of the data in hand are most likely to be unbiased, or at which the biases are well enough understood to be modelled accurately.

Population variation in density-dependent growth, mortality and their trade-off in a stream fish.

Important variation in the shape and strength of density-dependent growth and mortality is observed across animal populations. Understanding this population variation is critical for predicting density-dependent relationships in natural populations, but comparisons amongst studies are challenging as studies differ in methodologies and in local environmental conditions. Consequently, it is unclear whether: (a) the shape and strength of density-dependent growth and mortality are population-specific; (b) the potential trade-off between density-dependent growth and mortality differs amongst populations; and (c) environmental characteristics can be related to population differences in density-dependent relationships. To elucidate these uncertainties, we manipulated the density (0.3-7 fish/ ) of young-of-the-year brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) simultaneously in three neighbouring populations in a field experiment in Newfoundland, Canada. Within each population, our experiment included both spatial (three sites per stream) and temporal (three consecutive summers) replication. We detected temporally consistent population variation in the shape of density-dependent growth (negative linear and negative logarithmic), but not for mortality (positive logarithmic). The strength of density-dependent growth across populations was reduced in sections with a high percentage of boulder substrate, whereas density-dependent mortality increased with increasing flow, water temperature and more acidic pH. Neighbouring populations exhibited different mortality-growth trade-offs: the ratio of mortality-to-growth increased linearly with increasing density at different rates across populations (up to 4-fold differences), but also increased with increasing temperature. Our results are some of the first to demonstrate temporally consistent, population-specific density-dependent relationships and trade-offs at small spatial scales that match the magnitude of interspecific variation observed across the globe. Furthermore, key environmental characteristics explain some of these differences in predictable ways. Such population differences merit further attention in models of density dependence and in science-based management of animal populations.

How much information do we gain from multiple-year sampling in natural pond research?

Natural ponds are perceived as spatially and temporally highly variable ecosystems. This perception is in contrast to the often-applied sampling design with high spatial but low temporal replication. Based on a data set covering a period of six years and 20 permanently to periodically inundated ponds, we investigated whether this widely applied sampling design is sufficient to identify differences between single ponds or single years with regard to water quality and macrophyte community composition as measures of ecosystem integrity.In our study, the factor “pond”, which describes differences between individual ponds, explained 56 % and 63 %, respectively, of the variance in water quality and macrophyte composition. In contrast, the factor “year” that refers to changes between individual years, contributed less to understand the observed variability in water quality and macrophyte composition (10 % and 7 % respectively, of the variance explained). The low explanation of variance for “year” and the low year-to-year correlation for the single water quality parameter or macrophyte coverage values, respectively, indicated high but non-consistent temporal variability affecting individual pond patterns.In general, the results largely supported the ability of the widely applied sampling strategy with about one sampling date per year to capture differences in water quality and macrophyte community composition between ponds. Hence, future research can be rest upon sampling designs that give more weight to the number of ponds than the number of years in dependence on the research question and the available resources. Nonetheless, pond research would miss a substantial amount of information (7 to 10 % of the variance explained), when the sampling would generally be restricted to one year. Moreover, we expect that the importance of multiple-year sampling will likely increase in periods and regions of higher hydrological variability compared to the average hydrological conditions encountered in the studied period.

Biodiversity within the city: Effects of land sharing and land sparing urban development on avian diversity

Urbanization, one of the most extreme human-induced environmental changes, is negatively affecting biodiversity worldwide, strongly suggesting that we should reconcile urban development with conservation. Urbanization can follow two extreme types of development within a continuum: land sharing (buildings mixed with dispersed green space) or land sparing (buildings interspersed with green patches that concentrate biodiversity-supporting vegetation). Recent local-scale studies indicate that biodiversity is typically favored by land sparing. We investigated which of these two types of urbanization is associated with a higher taxonomic (i.e. species richness), functional, and phylogenetic diversity of birds. To do so, we collected information on breeding and wintering bird assemblages in 45 land-sharing and 45 land-sparing areas in nine European cities, which provide the first attempt to explore this question using a large geographical scale and temporal replication. We found that land-sharing urban areas were significantly associated with a higher taxonomic and functional diversity of birds during winter, but not during the breeding season (with only a marginally significant effect for functional diversity). We found no association between the type of urban development and phylogenetic diversity. Our findings indicate that not all components of avian diversity are similarly affected by these two means of urban planning and highlight the importance of integrating the temporal perspective into this kind of studies. Our results also offer useful information to the current debate about the trade-off between biodiversity conservation and human well-being in the context of land sharing and sparing urban practices. In addition, we found that certain small-scale urban landscape characteristics (i.e. few impervious surfaces, high water or tree cover) and human practices (i.e. bird feeders or plants with berries) can help maintaining more diverse urban bird assemblages. We provide specific suggestions for both policymakers and citizens that hopefully will help to create more biodiversity-friendly cities in the future.

Ixodes scapularis salivary gland microRNAs are differentially expressed during Powassan virus transmission

Successful tick feeding is facilitated by an assortment of pharmacologically-active factors in tick saliva that create an immunologically privileged micro-environment in the host’s skin. Through a process known as saliva-assisted transmission, bioactive tick salivary factors modulate the host environment, promoting transmission and establishment of a tick-borne pathogen. This phenomenon was previously demonstrated for Powassan virus (POWV), a North American tick-borne flavivirus that is the causative agent of a severe neuroinvasive disease in humans. Here, we sought to characterize the Ixodes scapularis salivary gland microRNAs (miRNAs) expressed during the earliest period of POWV transmission to a mammalian host. POWV-infected and uninfected I. scapularis females were fed on naïve mice for 1, 3, and 6 hours, and Illumina next generation sequencing was used to characterize the salivary gland miRNA expression profiles of POWV-infected versus uninfected ticks. 379 salivary miRNAs were detected, of which 338 are reported here as putative novel I. scapularis miRNAs. 35 salivary gland miRNAs were significantly up-regulated and 17 miRNAs were significantly down-regulated in response to POWV infection. To investigate the potential role of salivary gland miRNAs in POWV replication in-vitro, we transfected miRNA inhibitors into VeroE6 cells to profile temporal POWV replication in mammalian cells. Together, the small RNA sequencing data and the in vitro miRNA inhibition assay suggest that the differentially expressed tick salivary miRNAs could act in regulating POWV replication in host tissues.