Temporal Persistence Research Articles

Maximum approximate likelihood estimation of general continuous-time state-space models

Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions concerning linearity and Gaussianity to facilitate inference on the model parameters via the Kalman filter. In this contribution, we provide a general continuous-time SSM framework, allowing both the observation and the state process to be non-linear and non-Gaussian. Statistical inference is carried out by maximum approximate likelihood estimation, where multiple numerical integration within the likelihood evaluation is performed via a fine discretization of the state process. The corresponding reframing of the SSM as a continuous-time hidden Markov model, with structured state transitions, enables us to apply the associated efficient algorithms for parameter estimation and state decoding. We illustrate the modelling approach in a case study using data from a longitudinal study on delinquent behaviour of adolescents in Germany, revealing temporal persistence in the deviation of an individual's delinquency level from the population mean.

Natural Shifts in Endosymbionts' Occurrence and Relative Frequency in Their Ciliate Host Population.

The role of bacterial endosymbionts harbored by heterotrophic Paramecium species is complex. Obligate intracellular bacteria supposedly always inflict costs as the host is the only possible provider of resources. However, several experimental studies have shown that paramecia carrying bacterial endosymbionts can benefit from their infection. Here, we address the question which endosymbionts occur in natural paramecia populations isolated from a small lake over a period of 5 years and which factors might explain observed shifts and persistence in the symbionts occurrence. One hundred and nineteen monoclonal strains were investigated and approximately two-third harbored intracellular bacteria. The majority of infected paramecia carried the obligate endosymbiotic “Candidatus Megaira polyxenophila”, followed by Caedimonas varicaedens, and Holospora undulata. The latter was only detected in a single strain. While “Ca. M. polyxenophila” was observed in seven out of 13 samplings, C. varicaedens presence was limited to a single sampling occasion. After the appearance of C. varicaedens, “Ca. M. polyxenophila” prevalence dramatically dropped with some delay but recovered to original levels at the end of our study. Potential mechanisms explaining these observations include differences in infectivity, host range, and impact on host fitness as well as host competitive capacities. Growth experiments revealed fitness advantages for infected paramecia harboring “Ca. M. polyxenophila” as well as C. varicaedens. Furthermore, we showed that cells carrying C. varicaedens gain a competitive advantage from the symbiosis-derived killer trait. Other characteristics like infectivity and overlapping host range were taken into consideration, but the observed temporal persistence of “Ca. M. polyxenophila” is most likely explained by the positive effect this symbiont provides to its host.

Animal corpse degradation enriches antibiotic resistance genes but remains recalcitrant in drinking water microcosm

Serious concerns have been raised regarding resistomes caused by corpse decomposition in the aquatic environment, which has posed threats to the water environment and human health. However, antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in large-volume tap water and their temporal stability during corpse decay are poorly explored. Here, high-throughput quantitative polymerase chain reaction (HT-qPCR) and amplicon sequencing were applied to profile ARGs and bacterial communities in experimental and control groups containing 50 L of tap water at 7th, 15th and 100th day during corpse decomposition. Our results suggested that most of the ARGs in experimental group had higher abundance compared with the control group independent of time. Some ARGs’ absolute abundance like tetracycline and beta-lactamase was even enriched by 259 – 413,640-folds during corpse decay. Twelve opportunistic pathogens, especially Burkholderia , Legionella and Halomonas , remarkably increased as decomposition proceeded. Furthermore, network analysis showed that opportunistic pathogens were significantly associated with ARGs. Our results emphasize that corpse decay increases the abundance and diversity of ARGs in large-volume drinking water independent of time while exhibiting temporal persistence of ARGs, thereby uncovering the harmful effects of animal cadavers. Our study also provides valuable suggestions for the risk assessment and management of source water caused by corpse decay. ∙ Corpse decay increases the abundance of ARGs in large-volume drinking water ∙ Most of the ARGs remains relative stable abundance over decomposition time. ∙ Twelve opportunistic pathogens were significantly associated with ARGs. ∙ Treatment, dissolve oxygen (DO) and pH were important factors influencing ARGs' spread.

Higher-order effects, continuous species interactions, and trait evolution shape microbial spatial dynamics.

The assembly and maintenance of microbial diversity in natural communities, despite the abundance of toxin-based antagonistic interactions, presents major challenges for biological understanding. A common framework for investigating such antagonistic interactions involves cyclic dominance games with pairwise interactions. The incorporation of higher-order interactions in such models permits increased levels of microbial diversity, especially in communities in which antibiotic-producing, sensitive, and resistant strains coexist. However, most such models involve a small number of discrete species, assume a notion of pure cyclic dominance, and focus on low mutation rate regimes, none of which well represent the highly interlinked, quickly evolving, and continuous nature of microbial phenotypic space. Here, we present an alternative vision of spatial dynamics for microbial communities based on antagonistic interactions-one in which a large number of species interact in continuous phenotypic space, are capable of rapid mutation, and engage in both direct and higher-order interactions mediated by production of and resistance to antibiotics. Focusing on toxin production, vulnerability, and inhibition among species, we observe highly divergent patterns of diversity and spatial community dynamics. We find that species interaction constraints (rather than mobility) best predict spatiotemporal disturbance regimes, whereas community formation time, mobility, and mutation size best explain patterns of diversity. We also report an intriguing relationship among community formation time, spatial disturbance regimes, and diversity dynamics. This relationship, which suggests that both higher-order interactions and rapid evolution are critical for the origin and maintenance of microbial diversity, has broad-ranging links to the maintenance of diversity in other systems.

Spatio-temporal variability and persistence of PM2.5 concentrations in China using trend analysis methods and Hurst exponent

Studying the persistence and spatial-temporal trends of air pollution is beneficial for determining the pollutant risk area and enables the development of associated prediction tools and models. Relying on the PM2.5 concentrations data retrieved via remote sensing from 2000 to 2018, the spatial and temporal pattern, variation tends, and persistence is determined through the Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall, and Hurst exponent. We combine the Theil-Sen Median + Mann-Kendall and Hurst to quantitatively and qualitatively predict the future trends of China's PM2.5 concentrations as a new perspective. Results reveal that PM2.5 concentrations increased at first and then decreased significantly, with 2009–2011 as the turning point for PM2.5 pollution changes, particularly in Central China and the Southeast Coastal Area. The area where PM2.5 concentrations were below 10 μg/m3 account for 29.75% of China's total territory, reaching the annual average criterion value determined by the World Health Organization. The areas presenting a continuous increase (15.69%) and decline (17.46%) of PM2.5 concentrations were almost equal. As a result, the constant monitoring of the variance in PM2.5 concentrations in the sustainably increased and underdetermined regions, such as Tibet and Northeast China, is needed. This study used simulated PM2.5 concentrations data as a valuable complement to China's ground monitoring stations, thus compensating for a shortage of long-term series data. Grid data analysis can more finely show the interior disputes in PM2.5 concentrations. The algorithm codes can be freely downloaded and become a helpful tool for analyzing the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of primary air pollutants.

Event-based analysis of wetland hydrologic response in the Prairie Pothole Region

Previous studies in the Prairie Pothole Region mainly assessed wetland hydrologic function at seasonal, annual and decadal scales. While many studies have looked at water balance dynamics and local flow generation processes in wetlands, no study looked at hydrological dynamics in response to individual rainfall events in prairie pothole wetlands (here after referred as wetlands) across a gradient of alteration. The present study aimed to investigate: (1) the most important metrics needed to characterize the spatial variability of wetland hydrologic response to rainfall-runoff events; (2)the temporal variability of individual wetland hydrologic response; (3) the spatial and temporal variability of wetland-stream interaction; and (4) the temporal persistence of various spatial controls on individual wetland hydrologic response characteristics. High-frequency water level data was collected over two years for ten intact, three consolidated, and seven drainage ditches associated with fully drained wetland(s), as well as a creek located in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. The hydrologic response of the studied wetlands to individual rainfall-runoff events was characterized using a range of metrics. Several data analysis methods were used, including principal component analysis, graphical assessments of wetland-stream hysteresis dynamics, and correlations analyses between wetland response metrics and spatial characteristics. Results suggested that wetland alteration status (i.e., drained versus intact, open-water wetlands) plays an important role in explaining differences in the event-scale hydrologic behaviour of wetlands. Climatic and antecedent storage conditions (i.e., surface and subsurface storage in wetland basin) also had a strong influence on the hydrologic responses of wetlands during individual rainfall-runoff events and appeared to override the influence of spatial controls such as wetland area, volume or catchment area. Antecedent storage also seemed to be the driving factor of wetland-stream interactions. A lack of persistent correlations between wetland spatial characteristics and response metrics was observed and suggested nonstationary wetland hydrological behaviours and controls, a conclusion that has significant implications for wetland classification and modelling.

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km2. The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

Sedimentary architecture of a Late Cretaceous under‐filled rift basin, Canterbury Basin, New Zealand

AbstractThe Canterbury Basin in southeastern Zealandia was initiated during the late Albian (ca. 105 Ma) as a rift system, prior to the onset of seafloor spreading between Zealandia and eastern Gondwana at ca. 85 Ma. Basin‐fill architecture and sediment types have been determined from interpretation of 2D and 3D seismic‐reflection lines tied to five wells and compared to outcrop data from the literature. These data show that Cretaceous syn‐rift basin‐fill architecture was controlled by normal faulting, which produced basin and range topography that persisted for more that ca. 30 Myr after the cessation of faulting. Initial sedimentation was dominated by short drainage systems sourced from within the basin to produce alluvial fans along fault scarps, which inter‐fingered with axial‐flowing braided river conglomerates, coal measures and mudstone‐rich lake deposits in more central portions of the basins. Marine incursion of the basin from the east commenced during rifting and onset of Gondwana breakup, with maximum water depths achieved in the Oligocene. Post‐rifting, detrital sediments were mainly sourced locally from structural highs and augmented by pelagic sedimentation, which collectively draped and eventually buried most of the earlier‐formed horsts by the Early Eocene. The temporal persistence of basin and range topography reflected the low rates of erosion of horst blocks compared to the rates of fault displacement. The lack of substantial sediment input from outside of the rift basin was a key factor in the under‐filling of the Canterbury Basin. This research emphasises the key role played by sediment supply in rift basin filling. Despite an abundance of active faulting at initiation, some rift basins may fill slowly over tens of million years after rift cessation.

Enzyme-Induced Transformable Peptide Nanocarriers with Enhanced Drug Permeability and Retention to Improve Tumor Nanotherapy Efficacy.

Temporal persistence is as important for nanocarriers as spatial accuracy. However, because of the insufficient aggreagtion and short retention time of chemotherapy drugs in tumors, their clinical application is greatly limited. A drug delivery approach dependent on the sensitivity to an enzyme present in the microenvironment of the tumor is designed to exhibit different sizes in different sites, achieving enhanced drug permeability and retention to improve tumor nanotherapy efficacy. In this work, we report a small-molecule peptide drug delivery system containing both tumor-targeting groups and enzyme response sites. This system enables the targeted delivery of peptide nanocarriers to tumor cells and a unique response to alkaline phosphatase (ALP) in the tumor microenvironment to activate morphological transformation and drug release. The amphiphilic peptide AYR self-aggregated into a spherical nanoparticle structure after encapsulating the lipid-soluble model drug doxorubicin (DOX) and rapidly converted to nanofibers via the induction of ALP. This morphological transformation toward a high aspect ratio allowed rapid, as well as effective drug release to tumor location while enhancing specific toxicity to tumor cells. Interestingly, this "transformer"-like drug delivery strategy can enhance local drug accumulation and effectively inhibit drug efflux. In vitro along with in vivo experiments further proved that the permeability and retention of antitumor drugs in tumor cells and tissues were significantly enhanced to reduce toxic side effects, and the therapeutic effect was remarkably improved compared with that of nondeformable drug-loaded peptide nanocarriers. The developed AYR nanoparticles with the ability to undergo morphological transformation in situ can improve local drug aggregation and retention time at the tumor site. Our findings provide a new and simple method for nanocarrier morphology transformation in novel cancer treatments.

Climate defined but not soil-restricted: the distribution of a Neotropical tree through space and time

Brosimum rubescens, a tree species with Neotropical distribution, can achieve local monodominance in Southern Amazonian forests. Understanding how and why this species varies across space and time is important because the monodominance of some species alters ecosystem complexity. Here we evaluated the fundamental ecological niche of B. rubescens by species distribution models (SDM), combining predictive environmental variables with occurrence points, and determined the temporal persistence and how the spatial distribution patterns of this species vary with different environmental predictive variables. To generate the SDMs, we incorporated predictive environmental variables as main components of climatic, hydric and edaphic variables. All algorithms showed higher performance in spatial predictions for hydric variables and for the combination of climatic, hydric and edaphic variables. We identified that the potential niches of B. rubescens seem to be defined by climatic fluctuations, with the edaphic conditions not limiting the presence of this species in the evaluated spatial scale. From the last glacial maximum to the present, this species seems to have increased its spatial amplitude; however, from the present to the future, predictions suggest that B. rubescens will experience a considerable loss of its range. Our findings showed independent and combined effects of different environmental variables, allowing us to identify which are limiting or facilitating the spatial distribution of B. rubescens. We corroborate the spatial persistence and geographical fidelity of the species’ distribution patterns over time.Graphical abstract

Genetic differences in the temporal and environmental stability of transgenerational environmental effects.

Environments influence the expression of phenotypes of individuals, their progeny, and even their grandprogeny. The duration of environmental effects and how they are modified by subsequent environments are predicted to be targets of natural selection in variable environments. However, little is known about the genetic basis of the temporal persistence of environmental effects and their stability of expression across subsequent environments, or even the extent to which natural genotypes differ in these attributes of environmental effects. We factorially manipulated the thermal environment experienced in three successive generations, to quantify the temporal persistence and environmental stability of temperature effects in contrasting genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana. We found that genotypes differed in the manner in which environmental effects dissipated across successive generations, the manner in which responses to ancestral environments were stably expressed in present environments, the manner in which ancestral environments altered responses to present environments, and in the manner in which ancestral environments altered fitness in present conditions. Genetic variation exists in nature for these trait-specific environmental responses, suggesting that the temporal persistence and stability of environmental effects in variable environments have the potential to evolve in response to natural selection imposed by different environments and sequences of environments.

A Peptide-Based Assay Discriminates Individual Antibody Response to the COVID-19 Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA Vaccine.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccine developed by Pfizer/BioNTech has been shown to be capable of developing an excellent antibody response against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein, with good production of neutralizing antibodies. Herein, we analyzed differences in the antibody response elicited by inoculation of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine through a peptide-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) that utilizes synthetic peptides derived from the spike protein in the immuno-adsorbent phase. Immunoreactivity against synthetic peptides was measured at different time points from vaccination and was also correlated with the SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing capacity. Our results indicate that all vaccinated subjects except one show reactive antibodies to at least one peptide at both 30 and 60 days after injection of the first dose. Only one of the 19 analyzed subjects showed no antibody response toward any of the selected peptides, consistently with a lower neutralizing capacity. More importantly, our data showed that the antibody response elicited by inoculation of the two doses of the Pfizer vaccine appears to be qualitatively individual, both in the type of recognized peptides and in the temporal persistence of the antibody response. Together with previous published data, our findings suggest that for effective pandemic control, it is important to constantly monitor the antibody protection in the population, and the assay described here could be a valid tool for this purpose.

One of the least disturbed marine coastal ecosystems on Earth: Spatial and temporal persistence of Darwin’s sub‐Antarctic giant kelp forests

AbstractAimMarine habitats and their dynamics are difficult to systematically monitor, particularly those in remote locations. This is the case with the sub‐Antarctic ecosystem of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, which was already noted by Charles Darwin in his accounts on the Voyage of the Beagle and recorded on the nautical charts made during that expedition. We combined these and other nautical charts from the 19th and early 20th centuries with surveys conducted in the 1970s and 1980s and satellite detection algorithms from 1984 to 2019, to analyse kelp distribution through time and the factors that correlate with it.LocationMarine ecoregions of Channels and Fjords of Southern Chile, Falkland Islands (Malvinas), and the island of South Georgia.TaxonMacrocystis pyrifera.MethodsWe characterised 309 giant kelp forests by their coastal geospatial attributes. Statistically significant variables were included in a conditional inference tree to predict kelp forest size. Sea surface temperature (SST) records were analysed to confirm temperature ranges over the last four decades. Nautical charts, historical surveys, aerial photogrammetry, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys and satellite imagery were overlaid to assess spatial distribution of kelp forest canopies, spanning the period 1829–2020.ResultsConsidering the extensive natural and human caused changes over the last two centuries, this diverse kelp ecosystem is remarkably persistent. We found that the ocean currents and wave exposure, combined with the geomorphological settings of the coastline are the most critical factors predicting the extent of the kelp forests.Main conclusionsWe have described the long‐term ecological persistence of the kelp forests in this vastly under‐studied region that offers a conceptual biogeographical model supporting the global importance proposed by Charles Darwin 200 years ago (Darwin, 1845). In the current context of global change, the need for conservation of this persistent and well‐preserved marine ecosystem has never been more important.

Temporal stability of stimulus representation increases along rodent visual cortical hierarchies

Cortical representations of brief, static stimuli become more invariant to identity-preserving transformations along the ventral stream. Likewise, increased invariance along the visual hierarchy should imply greater temporal persistence of temporally structured dynamic stimuli, possibly complemented by temporal broadening of neuronal receptive fields. However, such stimuli could engage adaptive and predictive processes, whose impact on neural coding dynamics is unknown. By probing the rat analog of the ventral stream with movies, we uncovered a hierarchy of temporal scales, with deeper areas encoding visual information more persistently. Furthermore, the impact of intrinsic dynamics on the stability of stimulus representations grew gradually along the hierarchy. A database of recordings from mouse showed similar trends, additionally revealing dependencies on the behavioral state. Overall, these findings show that visual representations become progressively more stable along rodent visual processing hierarchies, with an important contribution provided by intrinsic processing.

Coordinated tractions increase the size of a collectively moving pack in a cell monolayer

Cells in an epithelial monolayer coordinate motion with their neighbors giving rise to collectively moving packs of sizes spanning multiple cell diameters. The physical mechanism controlling the pack size, however, remains unclear. A potential mechanism comes from assuming that cell–substrate traction forces persist over some time scale: with large enough persistence time, collective cell packs emerge. To test this hypothesis, we measured the velocity and net traction of each cell. The data showed that in addition to having some temporal persistence, tractions were spatially correlated, suggesting that cells coordinate with their neighbors to apply tractions in the same direction. Chemical inhibitors and activators of actomyosin contraction were used to determine effects of altering the traction persistence and alignment. Numerical simulations based on the self-propelled Voronoi model, augmented to include both traction persistence and alignment and calibrated against the experimental data, matched the experimentally measured pack size. The model identified that if there were no alignment of traction between neighboring cells, the size of the collective pack would be substantially smaller than observed in the experiments. Hence, combining experiments and a simple mechanical model, this study confirms the long-standing assumption of traction persistence and adds the notion of traction alignment between neighbors. Together, persistence and alignment are two factors controlling the size of a collectively moving cell pack.

On the persistence of market sentiment: A multifractal fluctuation analysis

This paper applies multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to study the multifractal property and temporal persistence of U.S. and European stock market sentiment, providing deeper insights into investor behavior. The findings indicate that the average sentiment is anti-persistent, understood as a general tendency for investors to overreact. The multifractal spectrum has a significant width in both markets, which comes with a substantial variation in local sentiment persistence. Analyses show that the current sentiment persistence is positively related to the level of market mood. Hence, investor fear is related to overreacting, while optimism is more closely to a random walk. This result is of potential interest for investment strategies, but is also likely to affect the stability of a financial market. Conclusions are drawn from financial option and survey data.

Effects of a Submesoscale Oceanographic Filament on Zooplankton Dynamics in the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone

Submesoscale structures, characterized by intense vertical and horizontal velocities, potentially play a crucial role in oceanographic dynamics and pelagic fluxes. Due to their small spatial scale and short temporal persistence, conditions for in situ measurements are challenging and thus the role of such structures for zooplankton distribution is still unclear. During RV Polarstern expedition PS107 to Arctic Fram Strait in July/August 2017, a submesoscale filament was detected, which initiated an ad hoc oceanographic and biological sampling campaign. To determine zooplankton taxonomic composition, horizontal and vertical distribution, abundance and biomass, vertical MultiNet hauls (depth intervals: 300–200–100–50–10–0 m) were taken at four stations across the filament. Zooplankton data were evaluated in context with the physical-oceanographic observations of the filament to assess submesoscale physical-biological interactions. Our data show that submesoscale features considerably impact zooplankton dynamics. While structuring the pelagial with distinct zooplankton communities in a vertical as well as horizontal dimension, they accumulate abundance and biomass of epipelagic species at the site of convergence. Further, high-velocity jets associated with such dynamics are possibly of major importance for species allocation and biological connectivity, accelerating for instance processes such as the ‘Atlantification’ of the Arctic. Thus, submesoscale features affect the surrounding ecosystem in multiple ways with consequences for higher trophic levels and biogeochemical cycles.

Economic impacts and risks of climate change under failure and success of the Paris Agreement.

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent the world's first effort toward the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature increase well below 2 °C and pursuing 1.5 °C. Little is known about how much the proposed mitigation efforts can reduce the risks and economic damages from unabated climate change and about the consequences if key emitters drop the Paris Agreement. Here, we use CLIMRISK, an integrated assessment model designed to support climate policy at the global, national, and subnational scales where mitigation and adaptation policy decisions are made. We characterize the consequences of unabated climate change and the benefits of current climate policy proposals by means of probabilistic estimates of the economic damages of climate change and uni‐ and multivariate dynamic climate risk indices at a detailed spatial resolution. The results presented reveal that the economic costs and risks are highly unequally distributed between and within countries and larger than previously estimated when warming in urban areas and temporal persistence of impacts are accounted for. Costs and risks can be significantly limited by strict implementation of NDCs, but increase noticeably under noncompliance by large emitters, like the United States.

Efficient prediction of profile mean soil water content for hillslope-scale Caragana korshinskii plantation using temporal stability analysis

Spatio-temporal variability in soil water content (SWC) increases the difficulty in soil water resource management and vegetation construction in arid and semi-arid regions. Our objectives were to investigate the spatial variability and temporal stability of SWC and identify representative locations for reliably predicting the profile mean SWC (MSWC) of a 33-year-old Caragana korshinskii plantation on typical sunny and shady hillslopes on the Loess Plateau, China. The profile SWC (0–180 cm) in three sampling belts and five hillslope positions (upper position, UP; upper-middle position, UMP; middle position, MP; lower-middle position, LMP; lower position, LP) were measured 27 times for both the hillslopes in 2018 and 2019. The mean relative difference (MRD), the standard deviation of the MRD (SDRD), and an index of temporal stability (ITS) were used to identify representative locations of the MSWC. The results indicated that the SWC presented different horizontal but similar vertical change trends in the five hillslope positions. The profile MSWC on the sunny hillslope (8.89%) was lower than that on the shady hillslope (9.44%). The mean Spearman correlation coefficients of the temporal patterns ranged from 0.6 to 0.8 for the five soil layers on both hillslopes. The characteristics of temporal stability differed in both temporal persistence and the representative locations for the five soil layers on the sunny and shady hillslopes. The mean ITS values generally decreased with increasing soil depth. Ultimately, the representative locations for estimating the profile MSWC were determined to be the MP-2 location on the sunny hillslope and the MP-3 location on the shady hillslope based on the MRD, SDRD, and ITS values. The representative locations have the lowest ITS values and represent the MSWC accurately, with root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) values of less than 1%. In addition, the soil organic carbon, clay, silt, and sand contents greatly affect the spatial and temporal distributions of the soil water at the hillslope scale. Our study provides a rapid and accurate method for determining profile MSWC in C. korshinskii plantations on typical sunny and shady hillslopes and could also support valuable guidance for the rational management of hillslope-scale SWC resources for similar dry regions.

Temporal persistence of taxonomic and functional composition in bird communities of urban areas: an evaluation after a 6-year gap in data collection

Temporal persistence of taxonomic and functional composition in bird communities of urban areas: an evaluation after a 6-year gap in data collection