Temporal Trend Analysis Research Articles

Hypothyroidism After Hemithyroidectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of Temporal Trends and Key Risk Factors

Background/Objectives: Post-hemithyroidectomy hypothyroidism is a recognized complication, though its incidence and risk factors remain variably reported. This study aimed to determine the incidence of hypothyroidism post-hemithyroidectomy, identify associated risk factors, and assess temporal changes in thyroid hormone levels. Methods: This retrospective analysis examined the records of 192 euthyroid patients who underwent hemithyroidectomy between January 2019 and May 2023. Thyroid function was assessed preoperatively and at 1, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to evaluate the time to hypothyroidism onset and identify significant predictors. Results: At 1 month postoperatively, a higher incidence was observed in elderly patients (>65 years; 31.11%) and those aged 56–65 years (29.54%), compared to younger age groups (7.69% in patients aged 18–35 years). The incidence decreased over time, with 14.06% and 10.94% of patients being hypothyroid at 6 and 12 months, respectively. Severe obesity was associated with the highest hypothyroidism rates across all follow-up periods, particularly at 1 month (50.00%). Elevated BMI was also associated with increased risk, particularly in overweight patients (HR = 2.368, 95% CI 1.016–5.523). Patients undergoing left-sided hemithyroidectomy had a higher incidence of hypothyroidism at 12 months compared to right-sided hemithyroidectomy patients (15.63% vs. 6.25%, p = 0.037). Cox regression analysis confirmed diabetes and BMI (overweight) as significant predictors of hypothyroidism. Conclusions: Hypothyroidism is a common complication following hemithyroidectomy, particularly in elderly and overweight patients. The significant early onset of thyroid dysfunction underscores the need for routine postoperative monitoring, especially within the first year.

Is the treatment of ankle osteoarthritis changing over time in Italy? Analysis of temporal trends for fusion and arthroplasty in a population-based study from 2001 to 2022 on the National Hospital Discharge Record database

BackgroundTreatment of ankle osteoarthritis by total ankle replacement (TAR) is increasing worldwide. The aim of the study was to present the overall temporal trends of TAR throughout 22 years (2001–2022) in Italy, analyzing the distributions of hospitals by volume of activity and patients by age and sex, drawing on the National Hospital Discharge Record database. Furthermore, as a secondary aim, we compared these trends with those of ankle fusions.Materials and methodsInternational Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD9-CM) codes of interest were identified to browse the Italian National Hospital Discharge Record database. Surgical volumes, trends over time, classes of hospital activity volume, sex and age of patients, and population incidence rates were described. The statistical significance of time series trends was assessed by the Cox–Stuart test with randomness as a null hypothesis.Results20,248 ankle procedures (total ankle replacements 8853 and ankle fusions 11,395) were extracted from 231,601,523 admissions registered nationally from 2001 to 2022. The yearly total number of TARs significantly increased almost tenfold from 96 to 996 (p < 0.05), while the number of fusions exhibited a stationary behavior (p > 0.05). The increased trend in TAR procedures was concentrated mostly in the North of Italy, with predominantly males between 55 and 64 years of age. The analysis of the number of procedures performed on inhabitants by region and that performed by all the hospitals in the region showed a different pattern across Italy.ConclusionsThe substantial increase in TARs may be owing to improved implant designs and innovative surgical technologies, which allow the treatment of more severe cases and deformities, previously untreated or treated by a fusion. This trend highlights the need to invest in implementing high quality registries by promoting surgeons’ participation in data collection.Level of evidence: population based study, level 1 evidence.

Oral health-related conditions in Ecuador: A temporal trend analysis of hospital discharges from 2000-2023.

Monitoring hospitalization rates associated with oral health conditions is an important part of epidemiological surveillance, especially when these conditions have increased significantly in low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to evaluate the temporal trends in hospital discharges associated with oral health-related conditions in Ecuador from 2000 to 2023 and identify the leading diagnoses groups. An ecological time-series study was conducted based on annual data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Ecuador. We identified oral conditions using hospital discharge records, which were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases. We estimated crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants for the entire population and crude rates by sex, age, region, and the diagnosis. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify national trends in hospital discharges. A total of 93652 hospitalizations were identified. Malignant tumors of the head, face, and neck were the most common diagnosis attributed to hospital discharges (16.5%), followed by cleft palate (14.5%) and cleft lip (7.8%) and other diseases of the jaws (5.4%). The crude rate of OHRC increased from 17.94 to 28.81 hospitalizations per 100,000 population between 2000 and 2023. Based on joinpoint analysis, hospital discharges increased by 2.2% annually during the study period. However, three temporal trends were identified: from 2000 to 2017, hospital discharges increased annually by 4.3% (p<0.05); from 2017 to 2020 decreased by 17.2%; and from 2020 to 2023 increased annually by 12.9%. Average hospitalization rates were higher among those aged 0-9 and > 64 years. Hospitalization rates associated with oral health-related conditions in Ecuador have increased significantly over the past twenty-four years, except during the COVID-19 pandemic, where cases dropped considerably. Many of the oral conditions identified in the study were malignancies, which are caused by a complex relationship between genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors. Conducting early detection analysis is essential to reduce their occurrence.

P1250 Spondyloarthritis before and after inflammatory bowel disease diagnosis and risk factors: a temporal trends analysis in a population-based cohort

Abstract Background Axial and peripheral spondyloarthritides (SpA) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are immune-mediated diseases with overlap in clinical and immunological features. However, temporal correlation of SpA and IBD in individual patients is not well characterized. Methods We conducted a nationwide population-based study between January 1, 1998 and July 31, 2022 to determine SpA prevalence before, and incidence after IBD diagnosis. Using ICD-10 codes in cross-linked Danish registers, we identified all residents with IBD diagnosis between January 1, 2006 and July 31, 2014 as well as controls matched 1:5 on age, sex, calendar year, and municipality of residency. We determined the odds ratios of SpA in the IBD group in the preceding years. Using adjusted Cox regression analysis, we determined the hazard ratios of new-onset SpA following IBD diagnosis in the proceeding years. Results Of 111,696 individuals included in the study, 18,616 (16.7%) were diagnosed with IBD. The prevalence of SpA was higher in IBD cases relative to matched controls (Figure). The aOR of SpA among those who later developed IBD, UC, or CD, compared to matched controls, was 1.98 (95% CI 1.81, 2.17), 1.67 (95% CI 1.49, 1.87) and 2.76 (95% CI 2.37, 3.21), respectively, in the 8-year period preceding IBD diagnosis. The odds of SpA were highest in the 2 years preceding IBD diagnosis. Among those with IBD, UC, and CD, compared to those without IBD, the aHR of new-onset SpA was 2.47 (95% CI 2.30, 2.65), 2.18 (2.00, 2.37), and 3.20 (95% CI 2.84, 3.60), respectively. When stratifying the IBD effect of SpA on sex and age, both females and the age group 8-45 years had higher risks for SpA following IBD diagnosis, when compared to male and older age groups, respectively. Conclusion In a population-based cohort, we demonstrate that the odds of SpA diagnosis are increased at least up to 8 years preceding IBD diagnosis and are highest 2 years preceding IBD diagnosis. SpA risk is increased among those with IBD, particularly among women and young adults. These clinical associations can improve early diagnosis and treatment of both IBD and SpA.

Analysis of the evolution in the number of manufacturing companies in Portugal between 2009 and 2021 to understand growth and decline trends

This project analyzes the evolution of the manufacturing sector in Portugal from 2009 to 2021, focusing on the variations in the number of active companies across various subcategories, such as food, textiles, and metal product industries. The goal of this analysis is to understand the dynamics of growth and contraction within each sector, providing insights for companies to adjust their market and operational strategies. Key objectives include analyzing the overall evolution in the number of companies, identifying subcategories with notable changes, and providing a comprehensive analysis of observed trends and patterns. The study is based on data from PORDATA 2024, and the research employs temporal trend analysis, linear and quadratic regression, and the Pareto representation to identify patterns of growth and decline. By comparing annual data, the project uncovers periods of growth and decline, allowing for a deeper understanding of the sector’s dynamics. The findings also highlight variations in periods of economic crises and during the Covid-19 pandemic, and recommendations for action are presented to support businesses resilience and continuity. These results are valuable for companies within the manufacturing sectors analyzed and policy makers, guiding strategic decisions to navigate the complexities of the market dynamics and to ensuring long-term organizational sustainable success.

Disease burden of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2036.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the oldest infectious diseases and continues to be a major killer of human beings. This paper was designed to provide insights into the disease burden of TB. The data was retrieved and downloaded from the latest GBD database. Joinpoint regression was done for the temporal trend analysis. The age-period-cohort model was introduced to get further insights into the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. The BAPC model was utilized to predict ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2036. From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR dropped from 31,446 (95% UI: 27,902 to 35,142) to 30,557 (95% UI: 27,693 to 33,531) per 100,000 people, and ASDALYR dropped from 719 (95% UI: 611, 837) to 76 (95% UI: 63, 94) per 100,000 people with an AAPC of -7.009 (95% CI: -7.219, -6.799). ASIR and ASMR decreased from 109 (95% UI: 95, 125) to 36 (95% UI: 33, 40) and from 20 (95% UI: 17, 24) to 2 (95% UI: 2, 3) per 100,000 people, respectively. Men had a higher TB burden than women. The age-period-cohort analysis showed the age effect represented significant fluctuations with a valley at age 5 for incidence rate, and a similar but relatively simple pattern for death rate. Period effect and cohort effect showed both incidence and mortality rates significantly decreased with advancing time points and more recent birth cohorts. At the current decline rate, the ASIR and ASMR would be 26.12 (95%CI: 15.75, 36.48) per 100,000 people and 1.13 (95%CI: 0.45, 1.81) per 100,000 people in 2030, respectively. And the ASIR would be 21.96 (95%CI: 6.14, 37.79) per 100,000 people in 2035. TB burden in China has decreased significantly overall in the past years. However, it is still hard to achieve the national goal of "End TB" by 2035, which means more effective strategies for TB prevention and control are urgently needed. Effective strategies aimed at men should include increasing awareness of tuberculosis among both the general population and healthcare workers, promoting smoking cessation and alcohol reduction, enhancing disease screening and treatment access, and providing psychological support and care.

How the COAPT trial affected the selection of patients with secondary mitral regurgitation undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge repair: insights from the GIOTTO Registry.

The impact of the COAPT results on clinical practice has not yet been investigated in large real-world cohort study. The aim of the study is to evaluate the potential impact of the COAPT trial by analyzing the temporal trends of baseline characteristics and outcome of secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) patients undergoing MitraClip (MC) included in the GIOTTO registry. The study population was divided into two groups, considering the enrolment before or after the COAPT publication. Temporal trend analyses were performed to evaluate the changes in baseline patients' characteristics and clinical outcome over time, and whether the COAPT publication influenced these changes. The outcome measure was the composite of hospitalization for heart failure (HF) and all-cause death at 1 year. The analysis included 1184 consecutive SMR patients treated with MC at 19 Italian centres between January 2016 and March 2020, 809 (68.3%) in the pre-COAPT group and 375 (31.7%) in the post-COAPT group. Temporal trend analyses showed a decreasing trend for New York Heart Association (NYHA) class (p=0.003), hemoglobin (p=0.014), and a significant upward trend for left ventricular ejection fraction (p<0.001) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD, p=0.046). The publication of the COAPT trial impacted only on NYHA trend. Non-significant differences in the composite outcome were observed between groups (p = 0.086). The selection process of SMR patients undergoing MC changed over time, with a significant impact of the COAPT publication mainly on the trend of NYHA class. At 1-year, patients in the post-COAPT group showed a non-significant reduction in the incidence of hospitalization for HF and all-cause death.

Evolução do acesso ao pré-natal em Pernambuco: a escolaridade materna como marcador das iniquidades em saúde

Abstract Objectives: to analyze the evolution and inequalities in prenatal care consultations in Pernambuco, according to maternal education level. Methods: this is an ecological study of pregnant women who attended seven or more prenatal consultations and resided in Pernambuco between 2011 and 2020, stratified by maternal education level and year of birth. Data were obtained from the Live Birth Information System. Temporal trend analysis was performed using the joinpoint regression method, and patterns of inequality were assessed through absolute measures (difference, ratio), relative measures (concentration index - CIX), and Equiplot-type graphs. Results: a rising trend in access to seven or more prenatal consultations among women in Pernambuco was observed between 2011 and 2020 (+3.6; p&lt;0.001). Among women with no formal education, prenatal coverage was 47.85%, while for those with more than 12 years of education, it reached 78.15%. The Concentration Index (CIX=0.0979; p&lt;0.001) suggests that 9.79% of prenatal access is concentrated among women with higher education levels. Conclusions: despite the expansion of prenatal care in Pernambuco, access remains unequal among women with different levels of education, highlighting maternal education as a marker of health inequities. Strategies need to be adopted to ensure greater equity in prenatal care for more vulnerable pregnant women.

Child diarrhea in Cambodia: A descriptive analysis of temporal and geospatial trends and logistic regression-based examination of factors associated with diarrhea in children under five years.

Diarrhea is a global public health problem that is the third leading cause of death in under five years, with an estimated 1.7 billion cases in 2023 and 1.8 million deaths from diarrhea diseases every year. To better understand child diarrhea in Cambodia, we examined to describe temporal and geospatial trends of diarrhea and used multiple logistic regression to analyze its association with individual and household characteristics and diarrhea among children aged 0-59 months using combined data from the Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey for 2005 to 2022. This study included 29,742 weighted children aged 0-59 months; there were 7,220 in 2005, 7,758 in 2010, 7,010 in 2014, and 7,754 in 2022, respectively. The prevalence of diarrhea among children aged 0-59 months decreased from 19.7% in 2005 to 6.2% in 2022. The highest prevalence of childhood diarrhea was observed in Kampong Cham (30.1%), in Mondul Kiri/Ratanak Kiri (24.6%), Battambang/Pailin (20.9%), and Mondul Kiri/Ratanak Kiri (12.9%) for the years 2005, 2010, 2014 and 2022. After adjusting for other variables, factors independently associated with a protective effect against childhood diarrhea included mothers aged 25-34 years (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.48-0.96), 35-49 years (AOR = 0.60; 95% CI: 0.42-0.87), completed higher education (AOR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.41-0.91), and employed (AOR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.72-0.96). Children were less likely to have diarrhea if they were older than 36 months, belonged to the richest households (AOR = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.86), or lived in coastal region (AOR = 0.53; 95% CI: 0.41-0.69). Conversely, children born to mothers who smoke had increased odds of diarrhea (AOR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.25-2.08), had barrier access to healthcare services (AOR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.07-1.35), or children aged 6-23 months. Diarrhea remains highly prevalent among children in Cambodia. Public health interventions and policies to alleviate diarrhea should be prioritized to address these factors across geographical.

Measles Among the Foreign-Born Population Residing in Spain, 2014-2022: Missed Opportunities for Vaccination.

Spain has been in a measles elimination phase since 2014. No evidence exists about the distribution of measles cases among the population born outside Spain. The aim of this study was thus to describe the epidemiological situation of measles, stratified by place of birth, during the post-elimination period in Spain. This is a retrospective study of confirmed measles cases reported to RENAVE between 2014 and 2022. A descriptive analysis of case characteristics (sex, age group, vaccination status, imported case) was performed, was well as an analysis of temporal trends and geographic distribution in measles incidence rate (IR; cases/million inhabitants). All analyses were stratified by place of origin (Spain born vs. born outside Spain). We then performed a sensitivity analysis of those born outside Spain, with the representation of Kaplan-Meier curves taking into account the year of arrival in the country until the onset of measles. Between 2014 and 2022, 951 measles cases were reported in Spain (overall IR: 2.3). Among these, 18.6% (177 cases, IR: 3.0) were born outside Spain. The IRs show differences (p < 0.001) in terms of distribution by age group and origin. By age group, children under 5 years had the highest IR, but adults aged 30 years and older reported the highest proportion of cases. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 5-fold higher among foreign-born children under 5 years than among native-born children. The measles time trend shows the highest peak in 2019 for foreign-born and native-born (IR: 8.6 and 5.4, respectively), consistent with the European-wide scenario, while only one case of measles was reported in 2022. Geographical variability in incidence rates by region was observed: Catalonia and the Valencian Community accumulated the highest proportion of cases throughout the study period. Among those born outside Spain, the median time from arrival to onset of rash was 6 years. The incidence of measles is 40% higher in Spain's foreign-born population than in its native-born population. Taking into account the increasing migrant population in Spain, we consider that public health efforts need to be directed towards susceptible groups of people. In this context of advanced elimination, specific interventions for identifying and attending the most vulnerable populations should be designed and implemented.

Analysis of Monthly and Annual Air Temperature Trends in Port-Said City, Egypt

Analysis of Monthly and Annual Air Temperature Trends in Port-Said City, Egypt

Correction: Bias Correction and Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in Eastern India

Correction: Bias Correction and Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in Eastern India

Waning success: a 2013–2022 spatial and temporal trend analysis of malaria in Ethiopia

BackgroundDespite consecutive decades of success in reducing malaria transmission, Ethiopia went off track towards its goal of malaria elimination by 2030, as outlined in the NMCP malaria strategy. Recent malaria outbreaks in Ethiopia are attributed to the emergence and spread of diagnostic and drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, increased insecticide resistance in major vectors and the spread of invasive Anopheles stephensi. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, environmental anomalies and internal conflicts have also potentially played a role in increasing malaria transmission. This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of environmental factors and An. stephensi to the spatiotemporal trends of recent malaria cases in Ethiopia.MethodsClinical malaria case data reported weekly between January 2013 and January 2023 were obtained from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI), Addis Ababa. A negative binomial regression model was used to explain the variability and potential overdispersion in the weekly number of malaria cases reported across Ethiopian administrative zones. This model incorporated fixed effects for selected environmental factors and random effects to capture temporal trends, zone specific seasonal patterns, spatial trends at the zone level, and the presence of An. stephensi and its impact.ResultsOur negative binomial regression model highlighted 56% variability in the data and slightly more than half (55%) was due to environmental factors, while the remainder was captured by random effects. A significant nationwide decline in malaria risk was observed between 2013 and 2018, followed by a sharp increase in early 2022. Malaria risk was higher in western and northwestern zones of Ethiopia compared to other zones. Zone-specific seasonal patterns, not explained by environmental factors, were grouped into four clusters of seasonal behaviours. The presence of An. stephensi was not shown to have any significant impact on malaria risk.ConclusionsUnderstanding the spatial and temporal drivers of malaria transmission and therefore identifying more appropriate malaria control strategies are key to the success of any malaria elimination and eradication programmes in Ethiopia. Our study found that approximately 50% of malaria risk variability could be explained by environmental, temporal, and spatial factors included in the analysis, while the remaining variation was unexplained and may stem from other factors not considered in this study. This highlights the need for a better understanding of underlying factors driving local malaria transmission and outbreaks, to better tailor regional programmatic responses.Graphical

Enhancing Lae-Lae Island sustainability: computer vision based waste detection and analysis

In our study, "Enhancing Lae-Lae Island Sustainability: Computer Vision-Based Waste Detection and Analysis," we investigate novel approaches to address plastic pollution challenges in coastal ecosystems, focusing on Lae-Lae Island. Through a multidisciplinary approach, we uncover valuable insights for effective waste management and environmental conservation. Spatial analysis identifies concentrated plastic pollution hotspots, offering actionable data for targeted cleanup strategies. Temporal trend analysis reveals waste accumulation patterns, facilitating adaptive waste management decisions. Furthermore, we examine the impact of environmental factors on waste density, aiding in proactive pollution mitigation. Central to our research is the evaluation of computer vision technology, which demonstrates high precision, recall, and an F1-score of approximately 87.8%. These results signify the technology's potential to revolutionize waste detection and monitoring, enabling efficient resource allocation, real-time surveillance, and rapid pollution response. In conclusion, our study provides a data-driven framework for sustainable plastic waste management on Lae-Lae Island, offering insights applicable to coastal regions worldwide. By embracing technology and innovation, we pave the way for cleaner, more resilient coastal ecosystems, underscoring the importance of proactive environmental stewardship.

How is the concept of charisma used in the academic literature about biodiversity conservation? A systematic map protocol

BackgroundThe extinction of species is a multifaceted phenomenon shaped by the complex interplay between biological and socio-cultural factors. Public and academic preferences for different species often play a direct or indirect role in influencing the conservation outlook of these species. The “charisma” of species and other components of biodiversity is often mentioned as an important factor in shaping human preferences, determining both the scope of scientific studies and justifications for such scope. Here, we present a protocol for systematically mapping the use of the concept of “charisma” in relation to biodiversity peer-reviewed academic literature focused on biodiversity conservation.MethodsThe search targeting academic peer-reviewed research articles and reviews will be conducted in three publication databases, The Lens, Scopus and Web of Science (Core Collection and SciELO), and will be supplemented by search engine results from Google Scholar. Broad-scope searches will be performed in 3 different languages (English, Portuguese, and Spanish) and article screening will be performed at two stages to ensure the relevance of each entry and consistency amongst reviewers in their use of the defined inclusion criteria. The resulting systematic map of the literature will be summarised by employing a narrative synthesis approach, and through descriptive statistics and analysis of temporal trends.

Spatio-temporal variability of surface temperatures in High Arctic periglacial environment using UAV thermal imagery and in-situ measurements

ABSTRACT The rapidly changing climate in the High Arctic is posing significant challenges to its ecosystem. To better understand the changes, this study uses Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology equipped with a thermal camera to investigate ground and water temperatures in the catchments of southwest Spitsbergen. This approach provides high-resolution, real-time data, offering a detailed understanding of surface temperatures in this remote and harsh environment. Integrating UAV technology with in-situ measurements enables data collection at high spatial and temporal scales, facilitating a thorough analysis of temperature trends and patterns. The research introduces a new processing workflow using open-source packages to create thermal orthomosaics, enhancing the analysis’s accuracy and efficiency. The final developed orthomosaics examine spatial variations in Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Water Surface Temperature (WST) and explore factors influencing them. Additionally, the study investigates thermal patterns in Arctic hydrological systems, such as channels and ponds, allowing for the identification and characterization of flow paths, including groundwater intrusions and surface water mixing, within the catchments. This multidimensional approach aims to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between cryo-, hydro-, and meteorological dynamics in the High Arctic.

Innovative and polygonal trend analysis of temperature in agro climatic zones of India

Understanding the long-term trends in temperature is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, human and animal health, and natural habitats. An in-depth analysis of long-term spatio-temporal trends of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures along with Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) from 1951 to 2022 in various Agro-Climatic Zones (ACZs) of India was performed using newly introduced Innovative Polygonal Trend Analysis (IPTA) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) along with traditional Mann-Kendall (MK) or modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) tests. The MK/m-MK and IPTA assessments detected significant trends in 44.6% and 86% of the time series data, respectively, while the ITA method detected significant trends in every time series data. The southern, western, and central parts of India are consistently experiencing rising monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The western dry region, Central Plateau & Hills, East Coast Plains & Hills, Gujarat Plains & Hills, West Coast Plains & Hills, Southern Plateau & Hills, Western Plateau & Hills and Eastern Himalayan Region predominantly show increasing trends in both maximum and minimum temperatures in all months. The Indo-Gangetic Plains (Middle, Trans, Upper and Lower) exhibit decreasing trends in maximum temperatures during January, February, May, and June. The DTR showed increasing trends in the northern and western parts, while it has increasing trends in the central and southern parts of the country. The results of this study provide valuable information to assist in precise and informed decision-making on agricultural resource management and socio-economic policies.

Trend analysis and change-point detection of temperature and rainfall in southern Peruvian Amazon and its relation to deforestation

The study aimed to identify the change points, tendencies, and trends in climatic parameters (precipitation and temperatures) and to investigate their relationship with deforestation in the southeastern Peruvian Amazon (Tambopata). Rainfall and temperature data for the Puerto Maldonado station from 1970 to 2023 was used. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation as well as temperature (maximum, minimum, and mean) were analyzed for possible trends using nonparametric Mann-Kendal statistic test, while the Pettitt test was employed to detect the abrupt change point in time series. The Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to identify the relationship between deforestation and climate parameters. The results revealed a rise in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures. Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope revealed significant trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures in the study period. However, in contrast to the temperature variation trend, the monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation did not present a significant trend. Significant positive correlations were obtained between deforestation and temperatures but its association with precipitation was not significant.

A multi-method and multi-duration trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in Istanbul, Turkey, by using meteorological records, MERRA-2 reanalysis, and IMERG estimations

In this study, temperature and precipitation trends in Istanbul were analyzed using data from a ground-based station for the 1960–2019 interval, Integrated Multi-SatellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) for 2000–2019, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) temperature reanalysis for 1980–2019. Single-duration analysis revealed significant increasing temperature trends with minor downward and major upward tendencies in precipitation. Multi-duration analysis resulted with dominant decreasing and increasing temperature trends, respectively, in 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, alongside decreasing precipitation trends in 1980–1999 winter and 2000–2019 spring, which were undetected in the single-duration analysis. As a novel attempt, trends based on MERRA-2 and IMERG data were compared with ground-based records in Istanbul and revealed better compatibility in MERRA-2, especially in 2000–2019 compared to IMERG data. By comparing various statistical methods and data sources, this study offers valuable insights into hydrometeorological trend analysis and aids transition from conventional to novel data sources.

Assessing the characteristics of extreme floods in Nepal

Abstract. This study examines the characteristics (magnitudes, trends, and frequency of occurrences) of extreme floods in Nepal, a country that is at significant risk from floods. Daily discharge data from 1980 to 2015 of three gauging stations (Chisapani of Karnali Basin, Devghat of Narayani Basin, and Chatara of Koshi Basin) were used to assess the largest 1 % of flows, the annual top five high flows, and floods of different return periods (2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 100-year). In addition, temporal trend analysis of the flood peaks was carried out using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates. Results show that the magnitudes of the largest 1 % flows range from 6310 to 17 900, from 6967 to 12 100, and from 6080 to 9610 m3 s−1 at Chisapani, Devghat, and Chatara, respectively. The monsoon, especially from mid-June to early September, consistently witnesses over 90 % of 1 % extreme flows, with August registering more than 51 % of these occurrences. July and August combine for 81 % of the top five flow events, predominantly in August. Despite insignificant flow changes at a 95 % confidence level, extreme floods (2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 100-year return periods) are concentrated heavily in July and August, with August's second fortnight recording the most flood events. This assessment emphasizes July and August as critical months for extreme floods, aiding Nepalese authorities in planning dynamic resource allocation, disaster response, and effective flood management.