Changes In Temperatures Research Articles

TC activity affected the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula over the past 1500 years and its driving mechanism

Modern observational records indicate that the activity of tropical cyclone (TC) has been influenced by changes in tropical sea surface temperatures over the past century. However, due to a lack of direct observational records and the low resolution of current TC reconstructions, further investigation is needed to understand the driving factors behind TC activity. Additionally, key parameters such as TC paths and the extent of their impact remain unclear, with limited research on the characteristics of TC impacts in the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula. In this study, we utilized sedimentary records from the muddy area to reconstruct the TC impact history in the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula over the past 1500 years. Our reconstruction results indicate that TC activity affected the north China Sea region during the intervals 1000–1600 CE and 1850–2000 CE, TC activity showed an increasing and decreasing trend before and after 1300 CE, respectively. Research suggests that on a centennial scale, TCs affecting the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula are mainly controlled by ENSO. A stronger ENSO led to increased TC activity in the region of genesis, resulting TC tracks shifting northward, which result in higher TC activity affected the BS.

Understanding the complex dynamics of climate change in BRICS countries: Analyzing the COP26 and COP27 agendas

The urgency to address climate change becomes increasingly evident as we observe a rise in devastating natural disasters and significant changes in global temperatures. This comprehensive study critically assesses the adherence to climate targets set at COP26 and COP27, employing a dual approach encompassing theoretical and empirical aspects—basic and additional analysis. According to theoretical findings, China, Brazil, and South Africa are still experiencing an increase in climate change indicators despite their collective efforts. Notably, Brazil has shown limited progress in green financing initiatives. Moving to an empirical analysis covering 1995–2021, the study employs advanced econometric techniques, including panel ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, CS-ARDL, and Grey forecasting models (GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1)). The past data on energy production using both renewable and non-renewable sources spanning from 2010 to 2021 to forecast energy production for the next 8 years, extending up to 2029. Results indicate that green financing, renewable energy consumption, natural resource rents, and government effectiveness significantly reduce GHG emissions. Conversely, economic growth, including its cubic form, exacerbates GHG emission trends. Moreover, the study validates the environmental N-shaped hypothesis in the examined countries, providing a complete understanding of climate change's intricate and multifaceted impacts. The grey forecasting model shows that Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are actively endeavoring to curb greenhouse gas emissions by transitioning toward renewable energy sources for energy production. This research contributes valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions in green financing and sustainable practices to effectively address and mitigate climate change.

Viability of an Open-Loop Heat Pump Drying System in South African Climatic Conditions

Drying agricultural produce consumes a considerable amount of energy. As an energy-efficient system, a heat pump can improve the energy efficiency of the drying process and hence reduce the energy consumption, especially in South Africa, where both sub-tropical and temperate weather conditions dominate. The objective of this research is to experimentally investigate the impacts of weather conditions on the operational conditions and thermal performance of an open-loop air-source heat pump drying system. The experimental investigation was conducted in a climate chamber where the climate conditions were simulated from −10 °C to 20 °C with an interval of 10 °C for the typical temperature range of the harvesting season in South Africa. The findings indicate that ambient temperatures have a significant impact on both the operating conditions and thermal performance of an open-loop heat pump system; the change in ambient temperatures from −10 °C to 20 °C leads to a 141.6% improvement in the suction pressure, a 214.2% increase in the discharge pressure, and 30.1% increase in the compression ratio, as well as a consequent increase of 130.6% in the refrigerant mass flow rate (from 0.0067 to 0.0155 kg/s), resulting in a corresponding increase in the coefficient of performance (COP) of the heat pump drying system by about 42.1%. Therefore, this study suggests that, while using an open-loop air-source heat pump drying system utilising R134a refrigerant is feasible in South Africa, it may be practically limited to regions with warm climates or during warmer seasons.

Addition of calcium carbonate in the synthesis of flexible polyurethane foams

Within all their variability, foams constitute the largest segment in the polyurethane industry. Polyurethane is composed mainly of isocyanate (-N=C=O) and polyol (-OH) functional groups, presenting different characteristics by adding fillers. This polymer has a wide range of applications such as adhesives, coatings, varnishes, elastomers and foams. Aiming improvements in its thermal properties, calcium carbonate addition was investigated in proportions of 12.5%, 25% and 37.5% (w/w). This filler is widely used to change the properties of polymers, as it is easily found in nature and has a low cost. For the synthesis of polyurethane samples, isocyanate and polyol were reacted using "one shot" process. The obtained results demonstrated the change in the glass transition temperatures (Tg) of the material to higher values, which indicates a decrease in the mobility of the polymer chains. Also, an increase in decomposition temperature was observed via differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). With Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis, it was possible to analyze that the material was successfully synthesized by the appearance of the characteristic bands of PU foams. Furthermore, with the addition of calcium carbonate, it was possible to identify the presence of two phases, which indicate that the material underwent changes in its crystallinity, identified through X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Finally, it was possible to observe via optical microscopy (OM) analysis that the addition of filler significantly changed the morphology of the foams.

Spatio-Temporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Extremes: A Study of Malawi and Zambia (1981–2021)

Analyzing long-term climate changes is a prerequisite for identifying hotspot areas and developing site-specific adaptation measures. The current study focuses on assessing changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and potential evapotranspiration in Zambia and Malawi from 1981 to 2021. High-resolution precipitation and temperature datasets are used, namely, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (0.05°) and Multi-Source Weather (0.1°). The Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s Slope methods are employed to assess the changes. The trend analysis shows a non-significant increase in annual precipitation in many parts of Zambia and Central Malawi. In Zambia and Malawi, the average annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures show a statistically significant increasing trend (up to 0.6 °C/decade). The change in precipitation during the major rainy seasons (December–April) shows a non-significant increasing trend (up to 3 mm/year) in a large part of Zambia and Central Malawi. However, Malawi and Northern Zambia show a non-significant decreasing trend (up to −5 mm/year). The change in December–April precipitation significantly correlates with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Indian Ocean Dipole) in Southern (Northern) Zambia and Malawi. To minimize the impact of the observed changes, it is imperative to develop adaptation measures to foster sustainability in the region.

Latest Evolution of the X-Ray Remnant of SN 1987A: Beyond the Inner Ring

Based on our Chandra imaging-spectroscopic observations, we present the latest evolution of the X-ray remnant of SN 1987A. Recent changes in the electron temperatures and volume emission measures suggest that the blast wave in SN 1987A is moving out of the dense inner ring structure, also called the equatorial ring (ER). The 0.5–2.0 keV X-ray light curve shows a linearly declining trend (by ∼4.5% yr−1) between 2016 and 2020 as the blast wave heats the hitherto unknown circumstellar medium (CSM) outside the ER. While the peak X-ray emission in the latest 0.3–8.0 keV image is still within the ER, the radial expansion rate in the 3.0–8.0 keV images suggests an increasing contribution of the X-ray emission from less dense CSM since 2012, at least partly from beyond the ER. It is remarkable that, since 2020, the declining soft X-ray flux has stabilized around ∼7 × 10−12 erg s−1 cm−2, which may signal a contribution from the reverse-shocked outer layers of ejecta as predicted by the three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic models. In the latest ACIS spectrum of supernova remnant 1987A in 2022 we report a significant detection of the Fe K line at ∼6.7 keV, which may be due to changing thermal conditions of the X-ray emitting CSM and/or the onset of reverse shock interactions with the Fe ejecta.

Anthropogenic influence on seasonal extreme temperatures in eastern China at century scale

Due to the scarcity of observational data in the early 20th century, very limited research has explored the impact of human activities on temperature extremes at the regional scale. Here we used a newly developed homogenized near-surface air temperature dataset from the beginning of the 20th century to estimate the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures in eastern China and evaluate their anthropogenic influence based on models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found clear increases in warm extremes and decreases in cold extremes since 1901 for both annual and seasonal mean temperatures, with more pronounced changes in recent decades. The most significant warming occurred in spring and winter, approximately double the smallest warming observed in autumn. The CMIP6 models generally replicated the century-scale warming in annual and seasonal temperature extremes, showing increases in the frequency and intensity of warm extremes and corresponding decreases in cold extremes. The optimal fingerprinting detections suggest that the century-scale warming can be clearly attributed to anthropogenic forcing, including changes in seasonal extreme temperatures. Most observed changes in extreme temperatures were attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, partially offset by a smaller negative impact from anthropogenic aerosol forcing, whereas natural forcing has played a minor role. These results provide important information for accurately projecting future changes in temperature extremes.

Climate-driven shifts in decapod larvae assemblages in a temperate estuary

The study examines the complex impact of climatic patterns, driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on regional climate, hydrology, and sea surface temperatures. Focused on the period from 2003 to 2012, the research specifically investigates the influence of thermal variability on decapod larval communities. Monthly zooplanktonic sampling conducted at the Mondego Estuary, Portugal, entrance over a decade revealed the prevalence of Carcinus maenas, Diogenes pugilator, and Pachigrapsus marmoratus larvae. These assemblages displayed notable interannual and seasonal fluctuations, often corresponding with changes in sea surface temperatures. Significant system shifts around 2007, instigated by the large-scale NAO, led to subsequent modifications in sea surface temperature and decapod larvae communities' dynamics. Post-2007, there was an upward trajectory in both species’ abundance and richness. Phenologically during the former period, the community exhibited two abundance peaks, with the earlier peak occurring sooner, attributed to heightened temperatures instead of the unique peak exhibited before 2007. The research further elucidated the occurrences of Marine Heatwaves (MHW) in the region, delving into their temporal progression influenced by the NAO. Although water temperature emerged as a crucial factor influencing decapod larvae communities annually and seasonally, the study did not observe discernible impacts of MHW events on these communities. These communities represent essential trophic links and are crucial for the survival success of adult decapods. Given the rapid pace of climate change and increasing temperatures, it is imperative to assess whether these environmental shifts, particularly in thermal conditions, affect these meroplanktonic communities.

Analysis of the impacts of climate change, physiographic factors and land use/cover on the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows in southern Quebec (Canada)

The objective of this study is to compare the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows measured in 17 watersheds, grouped into three homogeneous hydroclimatic regions, during the period 1930–2023 in southern Quebec. With regard to spatial variability, unlike extreme daily flows, seasonal daily mean flows are very poorly correlated with physiographic factors and land use and land cover. In fall, they are not correlated with any physiographic or climatic factor. In winter, they are positively correlated with the rainfall and winter daily mean maximum temperatures. In spring, they are strongly correlated positively with the snowfall but negatively with the spring daily mean maximum temperatures. However, in summer, they are better correlated with forest area and, to a lesser extent, with the rainfall. As for their temporal variability, the application of six different statistical tests revealed a general increase in daily mean flows in winter due to early snowmelt and increased rainfall in fall. In summer, flows decreased significantly in the snowiest hydroclimatic region on the south shore due to the decrease in the snowfall. In spring, no significant change in flows was globally observed in the three hydroclimatic regions despite the decrease in the snowfall due to the increase in the rainfall. In fall, flows increased significantly south of 47°N on both shores due to the increase in the rainfall. This study demonstrates that, unlike extreme flows, the temporal variability of seasonal daily average flows is exclusively influenced by climatic variables in southern Quebec. Due to this influence, seasonal daily mean flows thus appear to be the best indicator for monitoring the impacts of changes in precipitation regimes and seasonal temperatures on river flows in southern Quebec.

Investigation the optical and structural properties of Mn-doped Sb2S3 nanocrystals embedded in host glass

The search for earth-abundant and non-toxic elements is essential for the manufacture of sustainable optical devices. In this context, dilute magnetic semiconductor (DMS) xMn-doped Sb2S3 nanocrystals (NCs) embedded in host glass were synthesized by the fusion method. Differential Thermal Analysis shows evidence of Sb2S3 phase crystallization peak and changes in glass transition and crystallization temperatures of the host glass with the presence of xMn-doped Sb2S3 NCs. Transmission electron microscopy images show the formation of xMn-doped Sb2S3 NCs with increasing size (2.1–3.8 nm) as a function of concentration (x = 0.00 to 0.40), respectively. X-ray diffraction measurements reinforced the evidence for the orthorhombic structure of xMn-doped Sb2S3 NCs embedded in glass. Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy analyses confirm the S, Sb and Mn precursor elements of DMS NCs. Atomic and magnetic force microscopy measurements show the magnetic contrast patterns resulting from the incorporation of Mn atoms into the Sb2S3 structure. The electronic paramagnetic resonance spectrum confirms the presence of Mn2+ ions (3d5) located in the crystal field of the Sb2S3 semiconductor due to six hyperfine transitions. The redshift of the Raman vibrational mode (1Ag) with increasing xMn concentration gives strong evidence for the presence of Mn2+ ions in sulfur vacancies (VS) in the Sb2S3 unit cell. Optical absorption and photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy measurements for xMn-doped Sb2S3 NCs show the subtle tunable redshift of the band gap and excitonic recombination in the green-red region, with increasing x concentration. PL confirms that dopant Mn2+ ions fill VS2 that are dominant in Sb2S3. Therefore, the position of the energy states after the increasing concentration of Mn2+ dopant ions gives rise to insight into luminescence for future research scenarios and applications involving sustainable DMS NCs.

Increased Extreme Precipitation in May over Southwestern Xinjiang in Relation to Eurasian Snow Cover in Recent Years

Abstract In this study, the interdecadal variations of extreme precipitation in May over southwestern Xinjiang (SWX) and related mechanisms were investigated. The extreme precipitation in May over SWX exhibited a decadal shift in the 1990s (negative phase during 1970–86 and positive phase during 2003–18). The decadal shift corresponded to strengthened moist airflow from the Indian Ocean and an anomalous cyclone over SWX during 2003–18. It is found that the interdecadal change of the wave trains in Eurasia might account for the differences in atmospheric circulation between the above two periods. Further analyses reveal that spring snow cover over Eurasia is closely linked to extreme precipitation over SWX during 2003–18. Increased snow cover in western Europe (WE) from February to March is accompanied by more snowmelt. This resulted in less local snow cover and lower albedo, leading to warm temperatures over WE in May. The changes in temperatures increase the local 1000–500-hPa thickness over WE. These factors provide favorable conditions for the enhancement of the Eurasian wave trains, which significantly influence extreme precipitation over SWX. On the other hand, corresponding to decreased albedo caused by the reduction of snow cover in northern Eurasia (NE) in May, anomalous surface warming occurs over NE. The anomalous warming results in positive geopotential height anomalies that intensify the meridional geopotential height gradient over Eurasia and cause an acceleration of the westerly jet in May. Anomalous upper-level divergence in SWX induced by the enhanced westerly jet provides a favorable dynamical condition for increased extreme precipitation.

Modulated Trends in Arctic Surface Air Temperature Extremes as a Fingerprint of Climate Change

Abstract Strengthened by polar amplification, Arctic warming provides direct evidence for global climate change. This analysis shows how Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) extremes have changed throughout time. Using ERA5, we demonstrate a pan-Arctic (>60°N) significant upward SAT trend of +0.62°C decade−1 since 1979. Due to this warming, the warmest days of each month in the 1980s to 1990s would be considered average today, while the present coldest days would be regarded as normal in the 1980s to 1990s. Over 1979–2021, there was a 2°C (or 7%) reduction of pan-Arctic SAT seasonal cycle, which resulted in warming of the cold SAT extremes by a factor of 2 relative to the SAT trend and dampened trends of the warm SAT extremes by roughly 25%. Since 1979, autumn has seen the strongest increasing trends in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as counts of days with SAT above the 90th percentile and decreasing trends in counts of days with SAT below the 10th percentile, consistent with rapid Arctic sea ice decline and enhanced air–ocean heat fluxes. The modulated SAT seasonal signal has a significant impact on the timing of extremely strong monthly cold and warm spells. The dampening of the SAT seasonal fluctuations is likely to continue to increase as more sea ice melts and upper-ocean warming persists. As a result, the Arctic winter cold SAT extremes may continue to exhibit a faster rate of change than that of the summer warm SAT extremes as the Arctic continues to warm. Significance Statement As a result of global warming, the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice is receding, exposing more and more areas to air–sea interactions. This reduces the range of seasonal changes in Arctic surface air temperatures (SAT). Since 1979, the reduced seasonal SAT signal has decreased the trend of warm SAT extremes by 25% over the background warming trend and doubled the trend of cold SAT extremes relative to SAT trends. A substantial number of warm and cold spells would not have been identified as exceptional if the reduction of the Arctic SAT seasonal amplitudes had not been taken into account. As the Arctic continues to warm and sea ice continues to diminish, seasonal SAT fluctuations will become more dampened, with the rate of decreasing winter SAT extremes exceeding the rate of increasing summer SAT extremes.

NUTRITIONAL PROFILING OF INDONESIAN SUPERIOR HYBRID AND BIOFORTIFICATION RICE VARIETIES: MACRONUTRIENT AND MICRONUTRIENT CHANGES UNDER DIFFERENT HEAT TEMPERATURES

Indonesia has developed rice varieties which are superior in cultivation yield. However, lack of information about the nutritional value and optimal temperature to preserve the nutrient content. This study was purposed to determine the nutritional values and micronutrient changes in different heat temperatures. Three varieties of rice namely Jeliteng black rice (JT), Inpari Arumba red rice (AR), and Inpari IR Nutri Zinc white rice (NZ) were analysed during September-October of 2021. Rice was provided from Indonesian Rice Research Centre, East Java, Indonesia. Macronutrient, lipid analysis, dietary fibre, sugar, salt, and micronutrient (vitamin and mineral) were analysed by proximate analysis, gas chromatography, enzymatic gravimetry, luff schoorl method, titrimetric, ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) respectively. All analyses were performed in duplicate. Rice of NZ had the highest protein and dietary fibre content with lowest moisture level. Kalium, magnesium, manganese, and zinc were mainly found in AR rice. However, vitamins were generally found in JT rice. Heating mostly diminished the vitamin B3, B7 and E in all rice, vitamin C in NZ rice as well as iron in colored rice. This study provided fundamental nutritional data for Indonesian rice superior variety. Future explorations are necessary for optimizing the process of milling, cooking, and fortification to maintain micronutrient values in these potential varieties.

Effect of thermal environmental factors on female students during summer and spring season: promoting a sustainable campus initiative

PurposeThe present study was conducted at the female campus of the United Arab Emirates University (UAEU), with a specific emphasis on the outside environment. This study aims to explore the influence of external conditions, including AC (AC), Time of Day (TD) variations, and Landscape Sites (LS) differences, on changes in physiological temperatures. Specifically, the focus is on understanding the dynamics of skin and abaya temperature (AT) when exposed to transient thermal environments, considering factors such as AC, LS, and different TD. By investigating these parameters, the research aims to gain insights into the thermal dynamics experienced by female students at the UAEU campus which can further lead to evaluate the thermal comfort (TC).Design/methodology/approachThe study involved three college-aged female participants simulating a daily walk to class on a arid tropical university campus. Real-time thermal measures were captured at 10-min intervals using the FLIR Thermal Camera. Statistical analyses, including the Kruskal–Wallis test and Don Bonferroni pairwise comparisons, were employed to assess significant differences in thermal conditions based on AC, TD, and LS. These tests rigorously analyzed the data to identify statistically significant variations in thermal conditions among the specified factors. Additionally, temperature data from the ECMWF ERA5 dataset, covering global climate from January 1940 to the present, was utilized. The GRADS application on a Linux-based system was used for data visualization and map chart creation.FindingsThe study reveals a slight influence of AC on both Abaya temperatures (AT) and Skin temperatures (ST) during the summer, with more pronounced diurnal changes in the afternoon significantly affecting both metrics. Site characteristics minimally impact AT, but they have a noteworthy effect on ST. In the spring season, AT and ST remain unaffected by AC, while temporal fluctuations, particularly in the afternoon, exert a significant influence. LS variations show statistically insignificant impacts on both AT and ST. Additionally, temperature maps for specific 2023 dates provide distinctive trends in the UAE, offering insights into dynamic climatic conditions varying by season and TD.Originality/valueThe study aims to address a knowledge gap by investigating the influence of AC, TD, and LS variations on physiological temperature change, specifically focusing on skin and AT. This investigation is conducted in the context of individuals exposed to thermal environmental factors within a arid tropical university campus setting.Practical implicationsThis research contributes to the existing knowledge by providing specific data on thermal conditions within the campus, enabling informed decision-making for creating a more comfortable and conducive environment for the students, thereby contributing to the goal of a sustainable campus.

Estimation of the Proton Resonance Frequency Coefficient in Agar-based Phantoms.

Agar-based phantoms are popular in high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) studies, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) preferred for guidance since it provides temperature monitoring by proton resonance frequency (PRF) shift magnetic resonance (MR) thermometry. MR thermometry monitoring depends on several factors, thus, herein, the PRF coefficient of agar phantoms was estimated. Seven phantoms were developed with varied agar (2, 4, or 6% w/v) or constant agar (6% w/v) and varied silica concentrations (2, 4, 6, or 8% w/v) to assess the effect of the concentration on the PRF coefficient. Each phantom was sonicated using varied acoustical power for a 30 s duration in both a laboratory setting and inside a 3T MRI scanner. PRF coefficients were estimated through linear trends between phase shift acquired using gradient sequences and thermocouple-based temperatures changes. Linear regression (R 2 = 0.9707-0.9991) demonstrated a proportional dependency of phase shift with temperature change, resulting in PRF coefficients between -0.00336 ± 0.00029 and -0.00934 ± 0.00050 ppm/°C for the various phantom recipes. Weak negative linear correlations of the PRF coefficient were observed with increased agar. With silica concentrations, the negative linear correlation was strong. For all phantoms, calibrated PRF coefficients resulted in 1.01-3.01-fold higher temperature changes compared to the values calculated using a literature PRF coefficient. Phantoms developed with a 6% w/v agar concentration and doped with 0%-8% w/v silica best resemble tissue PRF coefficients and should be preferred in HIFU studies. The estimated PRF coefficients can result in enhanced MR thermometry monitoring and evaluation of HIFU protocols.

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 Scenario

AbstractPermafrost, or ground that is continuously frozen for at least 2 years, contains vast stores of organic soil carbon. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) may prevent tipping points that lead to widespread permafrost thaw and carbon release by cooling surface and soil temperatures, but it is unclear if or when permafrost could stabilize after SAI deployment. Here we use output from the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 simulations to assess how permafrost may respond to a specific SAI strategy that maintains global mean surface temperature to 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. Permafrost responses under SAI are compared to responses under the control SSP2‐4.5 emissions scenario. We show that the rate of boreal permafrost thaw slows under SAI but does not fully stop, likely due to deep permafrost thaw processes that are resistant to surface temperatures changes. In both the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 and SSP2‐4.5 simulations, permafrost completely thaws and disappears along the southern edge of the permafrost area by 2069, indicating that some permafrost loss may be inevitable even if SAI successfully stabilizes global mean surface temperatures. SAI does prevent a potential local tipping point (talik formation) in roughly 1 million km2 of permafrost. Most of the talik prevention occurs in permafrost peatlands. Thus, a more aggressive SAI strategy than that of ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 is likely required to prevent all future projected permafrost thaw.

Thermal Modeling of the Sanbagawa and Ryoke Belts

The Sanbagawa and Ryoke belts were formed in a convergent plate boundary along the eastern margin of Eurasia. Thermal modeling using the geological records of these belts as constraints allows quantitative estimates of both shear heating along the Wadati-Benioff zone and magma fluxes beneath the volcanic arc. In contrast to real-time observations of crustal movement and heat flow, rocks record changes in pressures and temperatures that occur over periods of several million years and can be used to examine conditions from the surface to the mantle. Thermal modeling combined with such geological records helps to bridge the gap in our knowledge between real-time observations of ongoing geological processes and the development of orogenies in convergent plate margins over geological time.

Local reflects global: Life stage-dependent changes in the phenology of coastal habitat use by North Sea herring.

Climate warming is affecting the suitability and utilization of coastal habitats by marine fishes around the world. Phenological changes are an important indicator of population responses to climate-induced changes but remain difficult to detect in marine fish populations. The design of large-scale monitoring surveys does not allow fine-grained temporal inference of population responses, while the responses of ecologically and economically important species groups such as small pelagic fish are particularly sensitive to temporal resolution. Here, we use the longest, highest resolution time series of species composition and abundance of marine fishes in northern Europe to detect possible phenological shifts in the small pelagic North Sea herring. We detect a clear forward temporal shift in the phenology of nearshore habitat use by small juvenile North Sea herring. This forward shift might be linked to changes in water temperatures in the North Sea. We next assessed the robustness of the effects we found with respect to monitoring design. We find that reducing the temporal resolution of our data to reflect the resolution typical of larger surveys makes it difficult to detect phenological shifts and drastically reduces the effect sizes of environmental covariates such as seawater temperature. Our study therefore shows how local, long-term, high-resolution time series of fish catches are essential to understand the general phenological responses of marine fishes to climate warming and to define ecological indicators of system-level changes.

Multi-physics code coupling methodology for the simulation of accidental transients in sodium cooled fast reactors

The French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has played a substantial role in advancing fourth-generation reactor technologies, including Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFR), which are anticipated to offer enhanced efficiency, adaptability, and sustainability compared to existing nuclear technologies. In the context of safety assessment, it is crucial to precisely simulate accidental scenarios like Unprotected Loss Of Flow (ULOF) transients. These transients entail intricate multi-physics interactions within the reactor, particularly within the core, encompassing thermal-hydraulics, reactor physics, and fuel performance (e.g. changes in densities or temperatures will lead to neutronics effects, thus power, then causing feedbacks onto said densities and temperatures).In order to capture those complex phenomena, a multi-physics coupling approach for SFRs, which combines the CATHARE3 code for system scale thermal-hydraulics, the APOLLO3 code for reactor physics, and the GERMINAL V2 code for nuclear fuel performance has been developed at CEA in the recent years.This paper presents a comprehensive methodology of such coupling and its integration into a Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) process. The first part of the paper provides an introduction to the simulation tools used for the coupling. The following section explains the multi-physics coupling approach, facilitated by CEA’s Collaborative Code Coupling Platform (C3PO), which enables code integration through a Python interface to create a comprehensive simulation model. A detailed examination of the coupling algorithm and data transfer mechanisms is also provided.The generality and reliability of this approach are demonstrated by simulating two accidental transients: the Unprotected Loss Of Flow (ULOF) in the ASTRID reactor and the Loss Of Flow WithOut Scram (LOFWOS) in the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), both corresponding to a primary pump trip without control rods falling. The results show that the proposed multi-physics coupling scheme is effective and robust for SFR simulations. The coupled model enables a more accurate and realistic representation of the complex phenomena occurring in the reactor during an accident.This research underscores the significance of multi-physics coupling in the analysis of SFRs and serves as a valuable point of reference for future SFR studies. The proposed approach offers an efficient way to investigate SFR responses during accidents or incidents, thereby advancing the development of dependable and precise simulation tools for SFR design and evaluation.

ThermoPCD: a database of molecular dynamics trajectories of antibody-antigen complexes at physiologic and fever-range temperatures.

Progression of various cancers and autoimmune diseases is associated with changes in systemic or local tissue temperatures, which may impact current therapies. The role of fever and acute inflammation-range temperatures on the stability and activity of antibodies relevant for cancers and autoimmunity is unknown. To produce molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of immune complexes at relevant temperatures, we used the Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics (RCSB) database to identify 50 antibody:antigen complexes of interest, in addition to single antibodies and antigens, and deployed Groningen Machine for Chemical Simulations (GROMACS) to prepare and run the structures at different temperatures for 100-500ns, in single or multiple random seeds. MD trajectories are freely available. Processed data include Protein Data Bank outputs for all files obtained every 50ns, and free binding energy calculations for some of the immune complexes. Protocols for using the data are also available. Individual datasets contain unique DOIs. We created a web interface, ThermoPCD, as a platform to explore the data. The outputs of ThermoPCD allow the users to relate thermally-dependent changes in epitopes:paratopes interfaces to their free binding energies, or against own experimentally derived binding affinities. ThermoPCD is a free to use database of immune complexes' trajectories at different temperatures that does not require registration and allows for all the data to be available for download. Database URL: https://sites.google.com/view/thermopcd/home.