Temperature Variance Research Articles

Multiphysics modelling of constant power microwave heating of model juice

Constant power microwave heating (CPMH) based on solid-state generators, a new microwave heating system, shows better repeatability than traditional microwave heating (TMH) powered by magnetron when performing experiments, while its detailed heating patterns and field distribution are still not fully understood. In this study, numerical simulations for model juice (about 1–5 mL) heated by CPMH and TMH systems were carried out to compare the heating performance. The simulation was performed through coupling electromagnetic, thermal and fluid fields, using a laminar flow model to simulate the flow behaviour of the model juice during the heating operation. Both surface temperature distributions and inner point temperatures were investigated for model validation, and the simulated data agreed well with the experimental ones, indicating that the modelling was rational and correct. Results showed that CPMH gave higher heating efficiency and better temperature uniformity, which was verified by determining both inner point temperature and surface temperature distribution. Besides, influences of sample volume and microwave input power on the heating performance of the CPMH system were studied, suggesting that greater sample volume could cause worse temperature uniformity, although a faster temperature increase was observed. When fixing total microwave input energy to 3 kJ, different input powers were found to achieve similar final average volumetric temperatures (50.46 °C–51.22 °C) but significantly different heating uniformity (final coefficient of temperature variance: 0.065–0.115), indicating that smaller microwave input power could contribute to better heating uniformity. It is hoped that this study could provide references to further understand the heating effects of CPMH systems, leading to better design and upgrade for microwave heating systems.

Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses

Abstract. The inter-dataset agreement of trends in subweekly near-surface (850 hPa) temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere midlatitude land masses is assessed among 12 global atmospheric reanalysis datasets. A comparison of the climatological temperature variance and dominant sources and sinks of the variance reveals that, except for NCEP-NCAR (R1) and NCEP-DOE (R2), there is a relatively good agreement for their magnitudes and spatial distributions during the satellite era (1980–2022), which indicates that the key features of subweekly variability are sufficiently well represented. A good agreement is noted for the positive trends found in subweekly variability over the satellite era affecting South Africa in September–October–November (SON) and South America in December–January–February (DJF). Although there is agreement in most of the reanalyses concerning the positive trend affecting Australia in SON, this has not yet emerged from the noise associated with interannual variability when considering only the satellite era. It is significant, however, when the period is extended (1954–2022) or limited to the most recent decades (1990–2022). The trends are explained primarily by a more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature advection. This generation is also identified as a source of biases among the datasets. The trends are found to be reproduced even in those reanalyses that do not assimilate satellite data (JRA-55C) or that assimilate surface observations only (ERA-20C, 20CRv2c, and 20CRv3).

The intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of extinction risk in lemurs (Lemuroidea)

Understanding why some species are more susceptible to extinction than others is critical for implementing effective conservation strategies. Phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) have been used to understand the drivers of extinction risk, and are most effective when applied to an entire lineage. Lemurs are a monophyletic group that evolved in Madagascar in relative isolation over millions of years, representing a unique and diverse lineage that provides an excellent case study for the drivers of extinction risk. We investigated the drivers of extinction risk in lemurs using intrinsic (species' traits) and extrinsic (environmental) variables related to ecology, life-history, and biogeography. We evaluated the tempo and mode of trait evolution and used PCMs to examine correlations between traits and extinction risk. We used models of trait evolution and historic and future climate data to predict how lemurs will fare under climate change. The predominant drivers of extinction risk in lemurs were diurnal activity and longevity, which were positively and negatively associated with extinction risk, respectively. Body size, as well as temperature mean and temperature variance across a species' range, were also predictors of risk. We found no evidence for evolution punctuated by short periods of rapid change in response to environmental shifts or other factors (punctuated equilibria), suggesting that traits will not evolve to track Madagascar's changing climate. These results may inform conservation strategies in Madagascar by differentiating the role of intrinsic vs. extrinsic traits in extinction risk. Moreover, findings may contribute to preventing declines in other endangered and endemic taxonomic groups.

Circadian Temperature in Moderate to Severe Acute Stroke Patients.

Stroke patients often present circadian disruption due to multiple causes e.g., primary disease, comorbidities, medication, immobilization, reduced daylight entrainment and sleep disturbances. To investigate the circadian rhythm of temperature in forehead skin in patients with moderate to severe stroke admitted for rehabilitation. A physiologic study in form of a secondary analysis of a former randomized study. In total 27 patients with moderate to severe stroke were included between May 1st 2014, and June 1st 2015. Circadian temperature was collected approx. seven days after admission at the acute stroke unit by a skin surface temperature probe as part of a Polysomnography (PSG) measurement. Temperature variations show no circadian rhythm (Type 3 tests of fixed effects by SAS, p = 0.1610). The median temperature variance did fluctuate, but not significantly, and the small changes in circadian temperature variance did not follow the normal temperature variance. Patients with moderate to severe stroke show an abrogated circadian rhythm of temperature. There is an unmet need to understand the mechanisms for this, significance for stroke outcome and treatment.

Comparing Atmospheric Temperature Fluctuations Across Landed Missions

AbstractWe analyze and compare atmospheric temperature data from three landed missions: Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover, Phoenix lander, and Pathfinder lander. Pathfinder and Phoenix were lander missions that operated for 84 and 151 sols, respectively. MSL Curiosity is a rover that operates on the surface of Mars. It has recorded air temperature for more than five Mars Years (MY). We denoise and detrend temperature data from each mission and use those results to calculate variance in air temperature as a diagnostic for atmospheric variability at the surface. The results show a consistent seasonal pattern in MSL air temperature variance with little interannual variability outside major dust storms. The global dust storm in MY 34 was accompanied by a decrease in temperature variance and a muted response in peak MY 35 variance the following year. Phoenix (68°N, 2 m measurement height) and Pathfinder (19.7°N, 1.1 m measurement height) air temperatures have larger variance than air temperature from environmental data records at the MSL location (5.4°S, 1.6 m measurement height) at its equatorial latitude. Pathfinder variances per sol are larger than those of Phoenix, possibly due to a combination of Pathfinder's lower albedo surface and lower latitude. This occurs despite the Pathfinder location's higher thermal inertia, which would act to decrease noontime variance relative to a lower thermal inertia surface. Comparison of MSL temperature variance to pressure drops related to convective vortex activity shows consistent seasonal patterns; however, pressure drops tend to increase with increasing rover elevation, while variance remains consistent.

Pulpal Temperature Variances During Step-by-step Adhesive Restorative Procedure Using Three Different High-irradiance Light-curing Units.

The rise in temperature in pulp tissues is related not only to heat transfer by high-irradiance light-curing units (LCUs), but also to restorative procedures. This research aimed to compare the rise in pulp temperature (PT) induced by three LCUs at each restorative step while considering the influence of resin composite shade and thickness. To accomplish this, the investigators used a proposed experimental model replicating pulp fluid circulation with a controlled, simulated intraoral temperature in bovine incisors. The recorded external and internal PT ranged from 36.7°C to 37.1°C and 32.7°C to 33.0°C, respectively. A significant decrease of internal temperature was recorded during class V preparation, followed by a progressive and representative rise of temperature in the subsequent restorative steps. The temperature was significantly higher during light curing of the adhesive system using Valo compared to light curing using Elipar and Radii Cal. However, none of the analyzed devices produced a temperature that exceeded the pulp tolerance limit (a temperature increase over 5.5°C). The paired test showed no significant difference in pulp temperature associated with the thickness of the increment of resin composite. However, shade was found to have more influence on the amount of energy absorbed by pulp tissue-A1 samples showed significantly higher temperature variation compared to samples using the A4 shade of resin composite. To conclude, the microcirculation and the performance of procedures under constant air-water flux dissipate the heat absorbed by the pulp. Additionally, the data suggest that all three LCUs analyzed can be safely used in clinical procedures, and that the resin composite shade may influence the amount of irradiance delivered to the tooth surface and represents a significant factor in pulp temperature variance.

The effect of a spinal thrust manipulation's audible pop on brain wave activity: a quasi-experimental repeated measure design.

High velocity thrust manipulation is commonly used when managing joint dysfunctions. Often, these thrust maneuvers will elicit an audible pop. It has been unclear what conclusively causes this audible sound and its clinical meaningfulness. This study sought to identify the effect of the audible pop on brainwave activity directly following a prone T7 thrust manipulation in asymptomatic/healthy subjects. This was a quasi-experimental repeated measure study design in which 57 subjects completed the study protocol. Brain wave activity was measured with the Emotiv EPOC+, which collects data with a frequency of 128 HZ and has 14 electrodes. Testing was performed in a controlled environment with minimal electrical interference (as measured with a Gauss meter), temperature variance, lighting variance, sound pollution, and other variable changes that could have influenced or interfered with pure EEG data acquisition. After accommodation each subject underwent a prone T7 posterior-anterior thrust manipulation. Immediately after the thrust manipulation the brainwave activity was measured for 10 seconds. The non-audible group (N=20) consisted of 55% males, and the audible group (N=37) consisted of 43% males. The non-audible group EEG data revealed a significant change in brain wave activity under some of the electrodes in the frontal, parietal, and the occipital lobes. In the audible group, there was a significant change in brain wave activity under all electrodes in the frontal lobes, the parietal lobe, and the occipital lobes but not the temporal lobes. The audible sounds caused by a thoracic high velocity thrust manipulation did not affect the activity in the audible centers in the temporal brain region. The results support the hypothesis that thrust manipulation with or without audible sound results in a generalized relaxation immediately following the manipulation. The absence of a significant difference in brainwave activity in the frontal lobe in this study might indicate that the audible pop does not produce a "placebo" mechanism.

Comparative analysis of time dependent temperature profiles of hydrating mass concretes of different mix ratios

In mass concrete, heat due to cement hydration in most cases is not easily released and is otherwise confined within its core. Consequently, mass concrete may exhibit quite remarkable increase in temperatures internally depending on majorly the vicinity temperature and the proportion of cement in mixture ratio. When the surface tensile stresses resulting from temperature difference between its core and surface exceeds the strength of the concrete, cracks could develop at the surface. Two mass concrete blocks of dimensions 1.10 m × 1.10 m × 1.10 m each and mixes of 1: 2: 4 and 1: 3: 6 with constant water cement ratio (w/c) of 0.60 were used in the study. Type-K thermocouples were used to monitor the temperature variance in mass concretes. BK Precision 710 temperature meter dual input was used to determine the temperature readings at time intervals. Thermometer was used to measure the environment temperatures within the vicinity of the mass concretes. Generally, the trends of the temperature profiles exhibit an initial uniform temperature which rises to peak values at 24 hours of concrete placement and then declined to constant temperature at mostly 120 hours and beyond. The sole source of heat in hydrating concrete is the cement paste, and higher cement content leads to higher quantity of heat release. Therefore, the mass concrete block of mix ratio 1:2:4 exhibited higher quantity of heat release than that of 1:3:6 especially at the core.

Impact of global warming on extreme hot and cold weather

After the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide emissions have continued to grow rapidly and global warming has become evident. Along with the warming, heat waves, cold waves, and protracted droughts are only a few examples of the extreme weather and climatic phenomena that additionally happened regularly, causing many casualties and property damages. In order to offer a foundation for future decision-making about the avoidance and reaction to severe hot and low temperature weather, we analyzed the reaction of future temperature to rising temperatures in the context of global heating in this study. This paper first analyzed the impact of global warming on extreme hot weather based on the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), in terms of the probability of occurrence of extreme hot weather when the average and temperature variance increase individually and together. Secondly, by examining the causes of the intensified polar vortex brought on by stratospheric warming as in setting of climate warming, the effects of global warming on extreme low degree weather were examined. The findings demonstrated that climate warming had an important impact on the occurrence of extreme high and low temperature weather. Warming on the one hand may make the average temperature and temperature variance change in some regions larger, and extreme high heat occurrences are more likely to occur as the temperature's average and variation both rise. Warming on the other hand will warm the stratosphere, which in turn will cause the asymmetric polar vortex to strengthen, making extreme low temperature events more likely to occur.

Dendroclimatological study of Sabina saltuaria and Abies faxoniana in the mixed forests of the Qionglai Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau

Tree-ring chronologies were developed for Sabina saltuaria and Abies faxoniana in mixed forests in the Qionglai Mountains of the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Climate-growth relationship analysis indicated that the two co-existing species reponded similarly to climate factors, although S. saltuaria was more sensitive than A. faxoniana. The strongest correlation was between S. saltuaria chronology and regional mean temperatures from June to November. Based on this relationship, a regional mean temperature from June to November for the period 1605–2016 was constructed. Reconstruction explained 37.3% of the temperature variance during th period 1961–2016. Six major warm periods and five major cold periods were identified. Spectral analysis detected significant interannual and multi-decadal cycles. Reconstruction also revealed the influence of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, confirming its importance on climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

Geo-physical seasonal deviations of land use, terrain analysis, and water cooling effect on the surface temperature of Pune city

Abstract Urban heat islands are hotter than rural places. Sustainable urban growth and improving urban environments need understanding Urban Heat Island (UHI) causes and finding effective mitigation techniques. This research examines the seasonal deviations in surface temperatures for the UHI effect in Pune, India, focusing on land use patterns and water body cooling. Land use categorization included residential, commercial, industrial, vegetation, and open spaces. The research studied the cooling potential and temperature variance by distance from water bodies in the form of lakes, rivers, and ponds. These aquatic bodies have surface and ambient temperature sensors. Roads, soil, commercial areas, residential areas, industrial areas, and vegetation have all shown increases in NDBI, ranging from 15.84 to 36.45%. Urban regions with heat accumulation and dissipation have been revealed by DEM and contour maps. The research found that the water bodies have a cooling effect on LST till the distance of 350 m. The research finds hotter places and shows how natural features mitigate UHI by analyzing land use patterns and water body cooling. The findings emphasize the significance of green areas and water bodies in urban design and development to improve Pune's climate resilience and inhabitability.

Modeling the Effects of River Inflow Dynamics on the Deep Layers of Lake Biwa, Japan

Climate change-induced extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts and intense rainfall, exert a significant influence on river inflows. These inflows act as vital conduits for nutrient transport, water quality modulation, and the regulation of thermal dynamics in lakes and oceans. In this context, this study conducts a comprehensive examination of the multifaceted effects stemming from river water characteristics, snowmelt water influence, and shifts in precipitation patterns on the stratification dynamics of Lake Biwa in Japan. To facilitate these investigations, a hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate thermal stratification in Lake Biwa. The results demonstrate that an increase in precipitation and river water flow, specifically doubling these factors, leads to noticeable cooling of the lake’s surface layer and a consequent destabilization of stratification during the stratification period. Conversely, halving these factors stabilizes stratification. Furthermore, elevating river water temperature by 5 °C raises water temperature near the upper thermocline, encouraging vertical mixing within the surface layer. Conversely, a 5 °C decrease induces significant temperature fluctuations and an unstable stratification extending from the surface to deeper layers. Notably, the spatial variance in water temperature within Lake Biwa is profoundly influenced by fluctuations in river water temperature. This study underscores the critical importance of considering river plumes in the study of material circulation, stratification dynamics, and ecological well-being in lakes and oceans. Given the mounting concerns related to eutrophication and the prevalence of anoxia in aquatic ecosystems, this research provides invaluable insights into assessing the impacts of river plumes on Lake Biwa’s stratification structure and seasonal dynamics.

On the Contribution of Transient Diabatic Processes to Ocean Heat Transport and Temperature Variability

Abstract Time-varying processes contribute to ocean heat transport and are important to understand for accurate climate modeling. While past studies have quantified time-varying contributions to advective transport, less attention has been given to diabatic processes such as surface forcing and mixing. Using a global eddy-permitting ocean model we quantify the contribution of time-variable processes to meridional and diathermal (warm to cold) heat transport at different time scales using a temporal eddy-mean decomposition performed in the temperature–latitude plane. Time-varying contributions to meridional heat transport occur predominantly at mesoscale eddy-dominated midlatitudes and in the tropics, associated with the seasonal cycle and tropical instability waves. The seasonal cycle is a dominant driver of surface flux– and mixing-driven diathermal heat transports. Nonseasonal (and nondiurnal) processes contribute up to about 10% of the total. We show that transient contributions to diathermal heat transport can be interpreted as sources of Eulerian temperature variance. We thus extend recent work on the drivers of temperature variability by evaluating the role of mixing. Mixing dampens seasonal and diurnal temperature variability, except near the equator where it can be a source of seasonal variability. At mesoscale time scales mixing drives variability within and near the base of the boundary layer, the mechanisms of which are explored using a column model. We suggest that climate models that do not resolve the mesoscale may be missing the rectified heat transport associated with high-frequency diabatic processes, in addition to the adiabatic eddy fluxes that are commonly parameterized. Significance Statement Ocean heat transport plays a key role in determining how the climate responds to changes in forcing. This transport is influenced by a range of processes that vary with time. Previous research has quantified time-varying sources of lateral heat transport, such as mesoscale eddies and overturning circulation cells. However, time-varying “diabatic processes,” such as surface forcing and unresolved turbulent mixing, have received less attention. Here, we quantify these effects using a global ocean model. We find a dominant role for the seasonal cycle in driving diabatic heat transport, but processes on shorter time scales also contribute. Our results suggest that temporal variations in turbulent mixing are an important contributor to heat transport but may not be resolved in coarse-resolution climate models.

Direct numerical simulation of internally heated natural convection in a hemispherical geometry

Internally heated (IH) natural convection can be found in nature, industrial processes, or during a severe accident in a light water reactor. In this accident scenario, the nuclear reactor core and some internal structures can melt down and relocate to the lower head of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) and interact with the remaining coolant. Subsequent re-heating and re-melting under decay and oxidation heat creates a transition from a debris bed to a molten pool. The molten pool, which can involve more than hundred tons of dangerously superheated oxidic and metallic liquids, imposes thermo-mechanical loads on the vessel wall that can lead to a thermal and/or structural failure of the vessel and subsequent release of radioactive materials to the reactor pit, and can possibly make its way to the environment. This study uses Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) to investigate homogeneous IH molten pool convection in a hemispherical domain using Nek5000, an open-source spectral element code. With a Rayleigh number of 1.6 × 1011, the highest reached through DNS in this confined hemispherical geometry, and a Prandtl number of 0.5, which corresponds to a prototypic corium, the study provides detailed information on the thermo-fluid behavior. The results show a turbulent flow with three distinct regions, consistent with the general flow observations from the BALI experiments. The study also presents detailed information on turbulence, such as turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), turbulent heat flux (THF), and temperature variance. Additionally, the study provides 3D heat flux distributions along the boundaries. The heat fluxes along the top boundary fluctuate due to the turbulent eddies in the vicinity, while along the curved boundary the heat fluxes increase nonlinearly from the bottom to the top.

Rotational effect of a cylinder on hydro-thermal characteristics in a partially heated square enclosure using CNT-water nanofluid

Rotating cylinder movement in a cavity flow is an exciting field of study in heat transfer. Considerable research has been carried out on rotating cylinders under MHD mixed convection in various types of enclosures. However, considering partially heated square enclosure and magnetic field using CNT-water nanofluid is very limited. This study's goal is to assess the hydrothermal phenomena in a square enclosure with a rotating cylinder. Simulation has been conducted for different rotational speeds (Ω) and dimensionless times (τ) to observe the thermal and fluid flow behaviour. The Galerkin Residual based finite element method has been used to conduct numerical calculations. The results are shown as isotherms, streamlines, and average Nusselt number at the cylinder wall. Moreover, the drag force at the moving wall, and the fluid properties such as the root mean square (rms) of velocity, the temperature, the vorticity functions, and the average fluid temperature are also presented. The heat transfer rate, drag force, rms velocity, and temperature increase with the rise of rotational speed and dimensionless time rise. Maximum vorticity occurs at Ω = 8 and τ = 1. The maximum vorticity function increases 12 times with the increasing rotational speed. Higher rotational speed leads to increased average fluid temperature. The case of Ω = 8, τ = 1 shows the most temperature variance, while Ω = 1, τ = 0.1 has the least. Increasing rotational speed results in higher drag force on the cylinder's surface. At Ω = 4, the drag force is 2.8 times greater than at Ω = 2. Overall, the fluid flow and thermal performance boost up while the rotating speed of the cylinder is higher.

Shape-Stabilized PEGylated Silica Aerogel-Composite as an Energy Saving Building Material.

Balancing thermal and visual comfort in buildings necessitates effective insulation to counteract heat loss and gain, especially with temperature variances. One promising approach is to combine phase change materials, such as poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG), with high-performance insulators like silica aerogel (Siag). To bolster opto-thermal performance in building envelopes, we introduce a smart insulation composite material through PEG integration, i.e., PEGalyation with Siag. Central to this thermal behavior is the PEG's phase change properties, which foster a shape-stabilized framework with Siag through their porous confinement. Preliminary observations indicate notable capabilities of obstructing near-infrared light while preserving satisfactory visible transparency. An optimized Siag@PEG composite with 5% loading of PEG has the visible range transmission of ∼92%, a decrease of ∼72% in thermal conductivity which is lower than pure glass and PEG, leading to a temperature dependent switchable hydrophobic to hydrophilic wettability characteristics. As a prototype window, the thermal performance evaluation of the synthesized composite, through experimental and computational studies, shows a decrease in indoor temperature of ∼20% with a higher temperature difference of ∼20 °C between outdoor and indoor weather conditions. This lightweight composite can act as sponge media to fill inside the double-paned window and for retrofitting existing glazing to boost the energy efficiency of buildings with facile manufacturing and scalability.

Estimating the observation errors of FY-3C radio occultation dataset using the three-cornered hat method

This study uses the three-cornered hat (3CH) method to estimate the observation error variances (ErrVars) of FY-3C RO refractivity, temperature, and specific humidity for the first time. The FY-3C RO data was compared to the three reference datasets including radiosonde observations and NCEP and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The ErrVars of FY-3C RO data are estimated at 18 globally distributed radiosonde stations by using the three reference datasets and are compared to corresponding gridded ErrVars estimated using only the two model datasets as references. The two types of estimates show good correlations at different heights, while the gridded estimates are generally the smaller ones, which may be attributed to the neglection of error correlations among the datasets when applying the 3CH method. Due to the lack of radiosonde data in oceanic and polar regions, the global distributions of FY-3C RO observation errors are presented based on the estimated 5° × 5° gridded ErrVars. The global distribution of the FY-3C RO fractional error standard deviations (ErrSDs) demonstrates that the observation error varies greatly at different pressure levels and latitudes. Specifically, the refractivity ErrSDs at 200 hPa and 50 hPa are significantly higher around 30°N and 30°S than in other areas. The specific humidity ErrSDs generally increase as pressure levels decrease. In addition, statistics show that the fractional ErrSDs of refractivity are generally the lowest between 45° N–75° N and 45° S–75° S at all pressure levels, and land-sea differences exist in the fractional ErrSDs for all three types of RO data.

Experimental study on the spark ignition characteristics at elevated temperature and pressure under flow conditions

This study investigates the fundamental spark-ignition characteristics under engine-relevant environments, focusing on spark discharge energy and the shapes of spark channels. The pressure, temperature, and mean flow velocity conditions were independently controlled (up to 20 bar, 567 K, and 18 m/s, respectively) to study the individual effects on spark channels. In terms of analyzing spark discharge energy, the breakdown and arc/glow phases were individually examined. Results showed that the breakdown voltage and energy are predominantly affected by ambient density, which is consistent with Paschen's law. During the arc/glow phases, the total discharge energy increased with an increase in mean flow velocity, whereas relatively minor effects on the total discharge energy were observed with pressure and temperature variances. In terms of the shapes of spark channels, it was found that the shapes vary significantly under different thermodynamic and flow conditions. Specifically, ambient pressure and spark channel stretching by flow had considerable effects on the shapes of spark channels, such as the thickness of spark channels and the extent of corrugation. This study also proposes a mechanism for forming short circuits, which explicates the spark behaviors under flow conditions, based on the prior analyses of spark characteristics. In the process of examining the mechanism, the formulae for the required voltage for short circuits and the resistance of spark channels are additionally suggested.

Impacts of large-scale climatic circulation on floods through precipitation and temperature in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

The importance of large-scale climatic circulation impacts on precipitation and floods in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) has been widely acknowledged. However, the mechanisms related to the impacts of circulation on floods are not yet fully understood. To address this issue, circulations were characterized by using the climate indices, and floods were represented by the flood volume and simulated using an improved hydrological-hydrodynamic model. The linear regression model was used to assess the impacts of circulation on precipitation and temperature, and also to quantify the impacts of precipitation, temperature, and circulation on floods. The results show that circulation affects precipitation with large spatial variability, while affects temperature with small spatial variability. On average, a unit change in different climate indices can cause a 2.5 %–6.1 % change in precipitation and a 0.3 %–1.2 % (0.09 °C–0.16 °C) change in temperature. Further, precipitation has a positive impact on floods, while temperature mainly has a negative impact. On average, a unit increase in precipitation and temperature can cause a 22.6 % increase and a 9.3 % decrease in floods, respectively. Consequently, circulation affects floods mainly through its impact on precipitation, while its impact on temperature also plays an important role. On average, a unit change in different climate indices can cause a 3.1 %–8.7 % change in floods. In addition, a multi-linear regression model was used to discuss the explained variance and relative contribution of climate. The results show that circulation can explain 12 %–23 % of the precipitation, temperature, and flood variances, while temperature and precipitation can explain 69 % of the flood variance. Among all circulations, the monsoon systems, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation dominate precipitation, temperature, and floods in the LMRB with the largest contributions and the most affected regions.

Impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Volcanic Forcing on the Late Summer Temperature of the Southern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract In this paper, we present a late summer (August–September) temperature reconstruction over the period 1792–2020 based on a tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology for the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The reconstruction explained 66.2% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period 1960–2020 and captured the warming trend since the 1960s, which would support the current warming on the TP. In addition, a warming hiatus existed during 2001–12 and the last 20 years (2000–20) were the warmest period in the past two centuries. The reconstruction matched other MXD- and mean latewood density (LWD)-based late summer temperature reconstructions from neighboring regions, and fluctuated in synchrony with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature during 1850–2020. Multitaper method analysis and wavelet analysis revealed significant periodicities of 2–3, 20–30, and 40–60 years in the reconstructed series. Our reconstructed series was very consistent and highly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). During the warm phase of the AMO, higher pressure and divergent horizontal winds over the TP contribute to warmer summers in the region. In addition, we found that the southern TP experienced the lowest temperature and downward solar radiation in the second year following large volcanic eruptions. The decrease in downward solar radiation may be directly responsible for the occurrence of the lowest temperatures. The results indicate that the AMO and large volcanic eruptions were impacting factors on temperature in our study area.