Seasonal Temperature Research Articles

Assessment of biometrics and stress indicators of the adult Village Weaver birds (Ploceus cucullatus) during breeding and post-breeding seasons in Jos, Nigeria

In this era of climate change, some biological conservationists' concerns are based on seasonal studies that highlight how wild birds' physiological fitness are interconnected with the immediate environment to avoid population decline. We investigated how seasonal biometrics correlated to stress parameters of the adult Village Weavers (Ploceus cucullatus) during breeding and post-breeding seasons of the Weaver birds in Amurum Forest Reserve. Specifically, we explored the following objectives: (i) the seasonal number of birds captured; (ii) whether seasonal baseline corticosterone (CORT), packed cell volume (PCV), and heterophil to lymphocytes ratio (H:L) were sex-dependent; (iii) whether H:L ratio varied with baseline (CORT); (iv) whether phenotypic condition (post-breeding moult) and brood patch varied with baseline (CORT) and H:L ratio; and (v) how body biometrics co-varied birds’ seasonal baseline (CORT), (PCV) and (H:L) ratio. Trapping of birds (May–November) coincided with breeding and post-breeding seasons. The birds (n = 53 males, 39 females) were ringed, morphologically assessed (body mass, wing length, moult, brood patch) and blood collected from their brachial vein was used to assess CORT, PCV and H:L ratio. Although our results indicated more male birds trapped during breeding, the multiple analyses of variance (MANOVA) indicated that the seasonal temperature of the trapping sites correlated (P < 0.05) significantly to baseline (CORT). The general linear mixed model analyses (GLMMs) indicated that the baseline (CORT) also correlated significantly to H:L ratio of the male and female birds. However, PCV correlated significantly to body size of the birds (wing length) and not body mass. Haematological parameters such as the baseline CORT and the H:L ratio as indicators of stress in wild birds. Hence, there is the possibility that the Village Weaver birds suffered from seasonally induced stress under the constrained effect of environmental temperature. Hence, future studies should investigate whether the effect observed is also attributable to other passerine species.

Evaluating Seasonal Variations in Human Contact Patterns and Their Impact on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.

Human contact patterns are a key determinant driving the spread of respiratory infectious diseases. However, the relationship between contact patterns and seasonality as well as their possible association with the seasonality of respiratory diseases is yet to be clarified. We investigated the association between temperature and human contact patterns using data collected through a cross-sectional diary-based contact survey in Shanghai, China, between December 24, 2017, and May 30, 2018. We then developed a compartmental model of influenza transmission informed by the derived seasonal trends in the number of contacts and validated it against A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza data collected in Shanghai during the same period. We identified a significant inverse relationship between the number of contacts and the seasonal temperature trend defined as a spline interpolation of temperature data (p = 0.003). We estimated an average of 16.4 (95% PrI: 15.1-17.5) contacts per day in December 2017 that increased to an average of 17.6 contacts (95% PrI: 16.5-19.3) in January 2018 and then declined to an average of 10.3 (95% PrI: 9.4-10.8) in May 2018. Estimates of influenza incidence obtained by the compartmental model comply with the observed epidemiological data. The reproduction number was estimated to increase from 1.24 (95% CI: 1.21-1.27) in December to a peak of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.31-1.37) in January. The estimated median infection attack rate at the end of the season was 27.4% (95% CI: 23.7-30.5%). Our findings support a relationship between temperature and contact patterns, which can contribute to deepen the understanding of the relationship between social interactions and the epidemiology of respiratory infectious diseases.

Anthropogenic influence on seasonal extreme temperatures in eastern China at century scale

Due to the scarcity of observational data in the early 20th century, very limited research has explored the impact of human activities on temperature extremes at the regional scale. Here we used a newly developed homogenized near-surface air temperature dataset from the beginning of the 20th century to estimate the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures in eastern China and evaluate their anthropogenic influence based on models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found clear increases in warm extremes and decreases in cold extremes since 1901 for both annual and seasonal mean temperatures, with more pronounced changes in recent decades. The most significant warming occurred in spring and winter, approximately double the smallest warming observed in autumn. The CMIP6 models generally replicated the century-scale warming in annual and seasonal temperature extremes, showing increases in the frequency and intensity of warm extremes and corresponding decreases in cold extremes. The optimal fingerprinting detections suggest that the century-scale warming can be clearly attributed to anthropogenic forcing, including changes in seasonal extreme temperatures. Most observed changes in extreme temperatures were attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, partially offset by a smaller negative impact from anthropogenic aerosol forcing, whereas natural forcing has played a minor role. These results provide important information for accurately projecting future changes in temperature extremes.

Metabolic and immune status of Pacific white shrimp Penaeus vannamei concerning farming conditions

Biomarkers for monitoring shrimp health have been proposed but scarcely evaluated at the farm level. We analyzed several indicators of energy status in shrimp under farming conditions concerning stocking densities (100 m-2 with biofloc, 15 and 7 m-2). The influence of the year's season (temperature) was also analyzed, and, finally, an unfortunate event of White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) infection occurred on the 7 m-2 farms, adding another condition. At shrimp sampling from ponds, the effect of acute handling stress was also analyzed for indicators typically affected by such procedure with a 3- and 10-fold increase in glucose and lactate levels in hemolymph, respectively, regardless of density. This response was partially blunted at lower temperatures and WSSV incidence. Increased levels of protein in the hepatopancreas, adenylic energy charge (AEC) in both hepatopancreas and muscle and phosphagens in muscle were observed in shrimp from the 100 m-2 farms, suggesting a better nutritional and energetic status in shrimp cultured at high density with biofloc technology. Shrimp with WSSV presented lower hemocyanin levels in hemolymph, most likely associated with its role in the immune response. In WSSV-infected shrimp, the stress response regarding glucose increase was blunted, whereas a stress-induced increase in triglycerides (TG) levels in hemolymph was observed only with WSSV. Increased TG levels in those shrimp hepatopancreas could indicate a switch from carbohydrate to lipid-based metabolism associated with the preferential use of carbohydrates (Warburg effect) for virus replication in the early infection state.

Shark critical life stage vulnerability to monthly temperature variations under climate change

In a 10-month experimental study, we assessed the combined impact of warming and acidification on critical life stages of small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula). Using recently developed frameworks, we disentangled individual and group responses to two climate scenarios projected for 2100 (SSP2-4.5: Middle of the road and SSP5-8.5: Fossil-fueled Development). Seasonal temperature fluctuations revealed the acute vulnerability of embryos to summer temperatures, with hatching success ranging from 82% for the control and SSP2-4.5 treatments to only 11% for the SSP5-8.5 treatment. The death of embryos was preceded by distinct individual growth trajectories between the treatments, and also revealed inter-individual variations within treatments. Embryos with the lowest hatching success had lower yolk consumption rates, and growth rates associated with a lower energy assimilation, and almost all of them failed to transition to internal gills. Within 6 months after hatching, no additional mortality was observed due to cooler temperatures.

Comprehensive thermal performance analysis of an air-cooled staggered configured Li-ion battery pack- A numerical and experimental approach

The discharge rate, ambient temperature, and airflow cooling velocity of a Li-ion battery pack BTMS have a direct impact on the battery's temperature, performance, and safety. Monitoring these is essential for avoiding overheating, ensuring optimal performance, and extending the battery's lifespan. This study comprehensively assesses the thermal performance of staggered structured cells of a 24.00V, 10.00Ah Li-ion battery pack cooled by ambient air. Both experimental and numerical methods are employed to achieve this evaluation. The primary objective is to investigate how varying discharge rates (0.50, 1.00, 1.50, 2.00, and 2.50; C), the seasonal temperatures in Prayagraj, India (282.00, 296.00, 305.00, and 315.00; K), and airflow velocities (0.50, 1.00, 1.50, and 2.00; m/s) influence the battery pack's thermal behaviour. A comparative analysis is also conducted between the present study and the author's prior research, focusing on the aligned configuration. The study observed a temperature increase in the airflow direction, from the inlet to the outlet, with the highest temperature recorded in the second-to-last column of the battery pack. Both numerical analysis and experimental testing confirmed that decreasing the airflow velocity from 2.00 m/s to 0.50 m/s reduced thermal performance by enhancing temperature in the airflow path, as well as transverse and circumferential temperature variations. Conversely, as the load on the battery (discharge rate) decreased from 2.50 C to 0.50 C, the thermal performance estimating parameters; Tmax, Tavg., ΔTmax, and σT, exhibited a declined trend. This is due to the greater heat generation at higher discharge rates. Furthermore, it was observed that as the ambient temperature increased from 282.00 K to 315.00 K, the temperature of the battery cells also increased. Nonetheless, the cooling patterns remained similar across these different temperature range conditions. Moreover, experimental results compete with the numerical outcomes with a maximum absolute percentage error of 1.21%. The staggered configuration gives lower and uniform temperature distributions within the battery packs than the aligned arrangements.

Exploring Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Variations in Istanbul: Trends and Patterns from Five Stations across Two Continents

This study aims to reveal the long-term station-based characteristics of precipitation in Istanbul, a mega city located on the continents of Europe and Asia, with complex topography and coastline along the Marmara and Black Seas. Using data from five different stations, three located in the European continent and two in the Asian continent, with measurement periods ranging from 72 to 93 years, wet and dry days have been identified, statistics on precipitation conditions during the warm and cold seasons have been generated, categorization based on precipitation intensities has been performed, and analyses have been conducted using extreme precipitation indices. At stations located in the northern part of the city, higher annual total precipitation has been observed compared to those in the south. A similar situation applies to the number of wet days. While during the cold season, the wet and dry day counts are nearly the same across all stations, this condition exhibits significant differences in favor of dry days during the warm season. Apart from dry conditions, “moderate” precipitation is the most frequently observed type across all stations. However, “extreme” events occur significantly more often (6%) during the warm season compared to the cold season (2%). Long-term anomalies in terms of annual precipitation totals have shown similarity between stations in the north and south, which has also been observed in longitudinally close stations. Despite the longer duration of the cold season and stronger temperature gradients, extreme rainfall events are more frequent during the warm season, primarily due to thunderstorm activity. While trend analyses revealed limited significant trends in precipitation intensity categories and extreme indices, the study highlights the importance of comprehensive examination of extreme rainfall events on both station-based and regional levels, shedding light on potential implications for regional climate change. Lastly, during the cold season, the inter-station correlation in terms of annual total precipitation amounts has been considerably higher compared to the warm season.

Two-Decadal Glacier Changes in the Astak, a Tributary Catchment of the Upper Indus River in Northern Pakistan

Snow and ice melting in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is crucial for regional water availability for mountainous communities. We analyzed glacier changes in the Astak catchment, UIB, from 2000 to 2020 using remote sensing techniques based on optical satellite images from Landsat and ASTER digital elevation models. We used a surface feature-tracking technique to estimate glacier velocity. To assess the impact of climate variations, we examined temperature and precipitation anomalies using ERA5 Land climate data. Over the past two decades, the Astak catchment experienced a slight decrease in glacier area (−1.8 km2) and the overall specific mass balance was −0.02 ± 0.1 m w.e. a−1. The most negative mass balance of −0.09 ± 0.06 m w.e. a−1 occurred at elevations between 2810 to 3220 m a.s.l., with a lesser rate of −0.015 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1 above 5500 m a.s.l. This variation in glacier mass balance can be attributed to temperature and precipitation gradients, as well as debris cover. Recent glacier mass loss can be linked to seasonal temperature anomalies at higher elevations during winter and autumn. Given the reliance of mountain populations on glacier melt, seasonal temperature trends can disturb water security and the well-being of dependent communities.

Comparative analysis on the mechanism of climate responsiveness strategies on indoor thermal performance of Yaodong dwellings in the Loess Plateau region of China

The vast rural architecture, while contributing significantly to enormous building energy consumption, also brings about substantial energy-saving potential. This underscores the need for a profound understanding of sustainable and intelligent green construction practices for vernacular dwellings. This study focuses on investigating the mechanisms of climate-responsive strategies on the indoor thermal environment of traditional dwellings in the Loess Plateau region, using the cave dwelling, known as Yaodong in Yulin, as a case study. Through on-site measurements, the study examines the effectiveness of climate responsiveness strategies on the indoor thermal conditions of different types of Yaodong (cliff-side style and independent style). Simultaneously, dynamic simulations are employed to analyze energy consumption of heating season (ECHP) and indoor temperature on the coldest day, while adjusting variable parameters of various passive strategies to identify the influences of factors affecting the indoor thermal performance of different types of Yaodong. The results indicate that the traditional Yaodong, employing passive design methods can contribute to enhancing indoor comfort under adverse climate conditions. The average indoor temperatures of cliff-side and independent Yaodong bedrooms are −1.9 °C and −3.2 °C, respectively, compared to the outdoor temperature of −12.8 °C, outperforming modern brick dwellings with an average indoor temperature of −9.3 °C. For cliff-side Yaodong, factors such as orientation, window-to-wall ratio (WWR), the aspect ratio, and sunspace prove to be the four most critical elements influencing indoor thermal performance. For independent Yaodong, the ranking of key factors is orientation, the aspect ratio, wall thermal resistance, and window-to-wall ratio. This study can provide guidance and reference for the preservation and revitalization of cave dwellings in the Loess Plateau region.

Potential climates and habitability on Gl 514 b: a super-Earth exoplanet with high eccentricity

ABSTRACT The recently discovered super-Earth Gl 514 b, orbiting a nearby M0.5-1.0 star at 7.6 pc, is one of the best benchmark exoplanets for understanding the potential climate states of eccentric planets. The elongated (e = 0.45$^{+0.15}_{-0.14}$) orbit of Gl 514 b, which only partially lies in the Conservative Habitable Zone, suggests a dynamically young system, where the spin-orbit tidal synchronization may not have yet occurred up to the present time. In the present work, we use a seasonal-latitudinal energy balance model, EOS-ESTM, to explore the potential impact of both constrained and unconstrained planetary, orbital, and atmospheric parameters on the Gl 514 b habitability, mapped in terms of surface temperature. We test three distinct CO2-dominated atmospheres by varying the CH4 concentration values (0 per cent, 0.1 per cent, and 1 per cent) and the total surface pressure. As a general trend, we find that habitable conditions are favoured by high-CH4 and high-pressure regimes. Habitability also increases for high-axis obliquities (at least until the appearance of an icebelt), long-rotation periods, and high-ocean fractional coverage. If the ocean fraction is low, then also the argument of periastron becomes relevant. Our results are robust against changes of the continental distribution. Thus, we conclude that Gl 514 b can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions with modest seasonal temperature variations under a wide variety of planetary, orbital, and atmospheric conditions. Despite no transit have been detected yet, the results found in this work should motivate the community to invest time in future observations.

Analysis of the impacts of climate change, physiographic factors and land use/cover on the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows in southern Quebec (Canada)

The objective of this study is to compare the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows measured in 17 watersheds, grouped into three homogeneous hydroclimatic regions, during the period 1930–2023 in southern Quebec. With regard to spatial variability, unlike extreme daily flows, seasonal daily mean flows are very poorly correlated with physiographic factors and land use and land cover. In fall, they are not correlated with any physiographic or climatic factor. In winter, they are positively correlated with the rainfall and winter daily mean maximum temperatures. In spring, they are strongly correlated positively with the snowfall but negatively with the spring daily mean maximum temperatures. However, in summer, they are better correlated with forest area and, to a lesser extent, with the rainfall. As for their temporal variability, the application of six different statistical tests revealed a general increase in daily mean flows in winter due to early snowmelt and increased rainfall in fall. In summer, flows decreased significantly in the snowiest hydroclimatic region on the south shore due to the decrease in the snowfall. In spring, no significant change in flows was globally observed in the three hydroclimatic regions despite the decrease in the snowfall due to the increase in the rainfall. In fall, flows increased significantly south of 47°N on both shores due to the increase in the rainfall. This study demonstrates that, unlike extreme flows, the temporal variability of seasonal daily average flows is exclusively influenced by climatic variables in southern Quebec. Due to this influence, seasonal daily mean flows thus appear to be the best indicator for monitoring the impacts of changes in precipitation regimes and seasonal temperatures on river flows in southern Quebec.

Facing climate change: Range dynamics and chromosome diversity in Hedeoma multiflora Benth., a South American aromatic-medicinal plant at risk

Climate change could significantly affect the geographic distribution of plant species. Hedeoma multiflora is a vulnerable medicinal and aromatic herb that distributes in the Pampa, Espinal and Chaco biogeographic provinces in austral South America. This integrated approach combines ecological models and cytogenetic evidence to assess the effects of climate change on this species. Species distribution modelling using the Maxent model was implemented under current climatic conditions and three future climate change scenarios, integrating data from three Global Climate Models. The most suitable areas span 68,557 km2, encompassing the Sierras Pampeanas in San Luis and Córdoba provinces, and the Tandilia and Ventania systems in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The primary variables influencing the models include elevation (500 to 2000 m.a.s.l.), annual mean temperature (10 to 17 °C), annual precipitation (500 to 900 mm) and precipitation seasonality (50 to 75%). While the results project an expansion in the potential distribution of the species, heterogeneous patterns of range shifts are predicted across the three mountain systems: expansion in Sierras Pampeanas, march in Ventania and retraction in the Tandilia system. Variations in chromosome numbers within four distinct localities were reported, indicating the presence of polyploidy. This could potentially provide adaptive advantages in response to changing climates. This plant lives in habitats that face human-induced alterations and insufficient area protected coverage, then we propose strategies for both in situ and ex situ conservation of this medicinal species in each area.

Optimization of the Water–Energy–Carbon Nexus in the Residential Water Uses of Shanghai, China

Residential water use in urban areas directly affects household energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. Reducing residential water use through water saving can lead to substantial energy saving and lower carbon emissions. Household choices in water appliances and fixtures and water-use behaviors shape water consumption patterns. This paper presents a study in Shanghai, China, where the water consumption structure of households was analyzed through a comprehensive survey. In addition, a season-differentiated water–energy–carbon nexus optimization model with Monte Carlo simulation was built to minimize the costs associated with water and energy usage while maximizing carbon emission reduction. The survey data revealed Shanghai’s water demand structure, thereby highlighting the water-use influence in the city on urban household energy consumption and carbon emissions, which are affected by seasonal temperature variations. The results provide useful insights into the intricate relationships among water use, energy consumption, and carbon emissions at the scale of urban households.

Climate Changes on the Amount of Rain and Temperature from 1990-2018 in Madaba, Jordan using Geographical Information Systems

Climate change is an important topic requiring thorough study due to the importance and increasing impact on the various environmental and human systems. Therefore, this study aimed to clarify the changes observed in the minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the calculation of rainfall rates during the period spanning 1990 to 2018 in the governorate of Madaba. The amount of rain as well as the average minimum and maximum temperatures were examined through annual, seasonal, and monthly analyses. The comparison results from 2018, 2010, 2000, and 1990 showed that there was an increase in the seasonal, annual, and maximum temperatures for the month of June reaching about 1.51 °C. The month of July and Shahrab reported an elevation of 1.06 °C and 1.26 °C with an annual increase in maximum temperatures of 1.44 °C. Similarly, rainfall rates decreased by 0.05 mm between 1990 and 2018, hence legislative laws were enacted against individuals contributing to climate change. This started with individuals practicing waste and garbage burning, as well as developing unified programs and plans to address the consequences.

Climate-Change-Driven Shifts in Aegilops tauschii Species Distribution: Implications for Food Security and Ecological Conservation

Climate change has diverse effects on the planet’s environment, including changes and shifts in the distribution and abundance of species. In this paper, we present a robust prediction ensemble algorithm for the current and future species distribution of Aegilops tauschii. Four modeling approaches were trained using various environmental variables (bioclimatic and soil variables) to accurately predict the species distribution for future scenarios. The results showed that GBM and RF demonstrated the most accurate predictions with an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) of 0.80 and 0.83, respectively. The results of variable importance depicted that the temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most important and effective factor in determining the habitat suitability of Ae. tauschii, followed closely by the precipitation seasonality (bioclimate 15) and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10). Then, the distribution maps of Ae. tauschii were produced under climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070. The results showed that Ae. tauschii will lose some of its suitable habitats under climate change and that this loss will be more severe in the east part of the study area. The results of the present study have important implications for ecological conservation as they can assist in identifying critical habitats and inform conservation planning efforts. Our model provides a valuable tool for understanding the potential future distribution of Ae. tauschii and highlights the need for continuous monitoring and protection of this species.

Seasonal exploitation of intertidal resources at El Mazo (N Iberia) reveals optimized human subsistence strategies during the Mesolithic in Atlantic Europe

Over the last few decades, research has significantly enhanced our understanding of the role played by shellfish in human subsistence during the Mesolithic period along the Atlantic coast of Europe. Instrumental to this advance has been the analysis of stable oxygen isotope measurements (δ18O) from mollusc shells, which offers valuable insights into the seasonality of shellfish exploitation. The δ18O values serve as reliable indicators of past seasonal seawater temperature variations experienced by the molluscs, enabling us to accurately determine the time of year when past humans collected them. Recent studies using this approach have successfully identified seasonal exploitation patterns of the topshell Phorcus lineatus (da Costa, 1778) in Atlantic Europe. However, uncertainties remain regarding the exploitation schedule of Patella depressa Pennant 1777, one of the most abundantly collected species in Mesolithic sites. Here we used shell δ18O values of P. depressa from the Mesolithic sites of El Mazo (Northern Iberia) to determine its seasonality of exploitation. Our study reveals that P. depressa was prevalently exploited during colder months. Modern specimens of the same limpet species were also collected during two annual cycles to assess potential seasonal changes in meat yield return. Results obtained has profound implications for better understanding how last coastal foragers managed available littoral resources throughout the year.

Grouped mixtures of air pollutants and seasonal temperature anomalies and cardiovascular hospitalizations among U.S. Residents

BackgroundAir pollution is a recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Temperature is also linked to CVD, with a primary focus on acute effects. Despite the close relationship between air pollution and temperature, their health effects are often examined separately, potentially overlooking their synergistic effects. Moreover, fewer studies have performed mixture analysis for multiple co-exposures, essential for adjusting confounding effects among them and assessing both cumulative and individual effects. MethodsWe obtained hospitalization records for residents of 14 U.S. states, spanning 2000–2016, from the Health Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases. We used a grouped weighted quantile sum regression, a novel approach for mixture analysis, to simultaneously evaluate cumulative and individual associations of annual exposures to four grouped mixtures: air pollutants (elemental carbon, ammonium, nitrate, organic carbon, sulfate, nitrogen dioxide, ozone), differences between summer and winter temperature means and their long-term averages during the entire study period (i.e., summer and winter temperature mean anomalies), differences between summer and winter temperature standard deviations (SD) and their long-term averages during the entire study period (i.e., summer and winter temperature SD anomalies), and interaction terms between air pollutants and summer and winter temperature mean anomalies. The outcomes are hospitalization rates for four prevalent CVD subtypes: ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, and arrhythmia. ResultsChronic exposure to air pollutant mixtures was associated with increased hospitalization rates for all CVD subtypes, with heart failure being the most susceptible subtype. Sulfate, nitrate, nitrogen dioxide, and organic carbon posed the highest risks. Mixtures of the interaction terms between air pollutants and temperature mean anomalies were associated with increased hospitalization rates for all CVD subtypes. ConclusionsOur findings identified critical pollutants for targeted emission controls and suggested that abnormal temperature changes chronically affected cardiovascular health by interacting with air pollution, not directly.

Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors.

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner&Buhrer) Nickle is a global quarantine pest that causes devastating mortality in pine species. The rapid and uncontrollable parasitic spread of this organism results in substantial economic losses to pine forests annually. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and GIS software ArcGIS10.8 to predict the distribution of B. xylophilus based on collected distribution points and 19 environmental variables (with a correlation coefficient of|R| > 0.8) for the contemporary period (1970-2000), 2041-2060 (2050s), 2061-2080 (2070s), and 2081-2100 (2090s) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the key environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of B. xylophilus and suitable distribution areas. Our results indicate that in current prediction maps B. xylophilus had potential suitable habitats in all continents except Antarctica, with East Asia being the region with the most highly suitable areas and the most serious epidemic area currently. Precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest month, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were identified as key environmental variables that determine the distribution of B. xylophilus. Under future climatic conditions, the potential geographic distribution of B. xylophilus will expand relative to current conditions. In particular, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2081-2100, suitable areas will expand to higher latitudes, and there will be significant changes in suitable areas in Europe, East Asia, and North America. These findings are crucial for future prevention and control management and monitoring.

Extraction and spatio-temporal analysis of phenological dates of winter wheat in north Henan Province of China from 2003 to 2018 based on MODIS NDVI time series.

Monitoring of spatio-temporal changes in crop phenology is an important part of the remote sensing of agricultural ecosystems. In this study, the segment turning point method was utilised to determine several phenological dates of winter wheat in northern Henan from 2003 to 2018. The spatio-temporal variation characteristics of these main phenological dates were analyzed, and the effects of temperature and precipitation on phenological changes were investigated. The results showed that: (1) The segment turning point method had strong space-time adaptability, and the RMSE of extracted phenoloical dates of multi-stations in a single year or single station in multi-years was less than 10d. (2) Roughly bounded by 114°E, the trefoil stage, tillering stage, overwintering stage and rising stage of winter wheat in the west were earlier than those in the east of northern Henan in 2018. (3) From 2003 to 2018, the interannual change rates of the trefoil date, tillering date, overwintering date, rising date, booting date, and milky date of winter wheat were 6.92 d/10a, 4.36 d/10a, 0.74 d/10a, -0.1 d/10a, -3.97 d/10a and -2.91 d/10a, indicating the trend of delaying pre-winter phenology and advancing post-winter phenology. (4) The delay of pre-winter phenology and the advance of post-winter phenology of winter wheat were significantly related to the increase in growing season temperature. The results of the study should provide a basis for further understanding of the effects of climate change on winter wheat phenology and to provide a reference for remote sensing monitoring of winter wheat phenology.

Seasonal extreme temperatures and short-term fine particulate matter increases pediatric respiratory healthcare encounters in a sparsely populated region of the intermountain western United States

BackgroundWestern Montana, USA, experiences complex air pollution patterns with predominant exposure sources from summer wildfire smoke and winter wood smoke. In addition, climate change related temperatures events are becoming more extreme and expected to contribute to increases in hospital admissions for a range of health outcomes. Evaluating while accounting for these exposures (air pollution and temperature) that often occur simultaneously and may act synergistically on health is becoming more important.MethodsWe explored short-term exposure to air pollution on children’s respiratory health outcomes and how extreme temperature or seasonal period modify the risk of air pollution-associated healthcare events. The main outcome measure included individual-based address located respiratory-related healthcare visits for three categories: asthma, lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), and upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) across western Montana for ages 0–17 from 2017–2020. We used a time-stratified, case-crossover analysis with distributed lag models to identify sensitive exposure windows of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) lagged from 0 (same-day) to 14 prior-days modified by temperature or season.ResultsFor asthma, increases of 1 µg/m3 in PM2.5 exposure 7–13 days prior a healthcare visit date was associated with increased odds that were magnified during median to colder temperatures and winter periods. For LRTIs, 1 µg/m3 increases during 12 days of cumulative PM2.5 with peak exposure periods between 6–12 days before healthcare visit date was associated with elevated LRTI events, also heightened in median to colder temperatures but no seasonal effect was observed. For URTIs, 1 unit increases during 13 days of cumulative PM2.5 with peak exposure periods between 4–10 days prior event date was associated with greater risk for URTIs visits that were intensified during median to hotter temperatures and spring to summer periods.ConclusionsDelayed, short-term exposure increases of PM2.5 were associated with elevated odds of all three pediatric respiratory healthcare visit categories in a sparsely population area of the inter-Rocky Mountains, USA. PM2.5 in colder temperatures tended to increase instances of asthma and LRTIs, while PM2.5 during hotter periods increased URTIs.