Temperature In Korea Research Articles

Global Climate Change Analysis based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios and Disaster Damage Analysis Using Hazards-US (HAZUS)

In this study, a global temperature rise by +1.9 to 5.2 ℃ was expected at the end of the 21st century due to greenhouse gas emissions based on a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a 1.6 ℃ increase in annual average temperature in Korea over the last 109 years (1912 to 2020) was confirmed. These climate changes have increased heat waves and extreme climate indices worldwide, and natural disasters have increased in Korea due to irregular changes in heat waves and precipitation. In addition, this study on disaster damage estimation was conducted using Hazards-US-Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH), a disaster damage assessment platform used in the United States. HAZUS-MH was selected because it is stable and robust for various disaster scenarios as well as specific geographical and climate conditions and is reliable for disaster management and response even though it has difficulty reflecting specific domestic environments. The results showed that seismic damage reduction costs can be significantly decreased through the integration of early warning and preventive measures under the scenario of Pohang earthquake magnitude 5.4. This study provides insight into domestic climate change and disaster management and emphasizes the need for future response and model development. An effective response to climate change is expected to play an important role in ensuring national and regional safety and stability.

체계 변위 전후 기간 동안 남한 12월 기온 변동에 대한 원격상관 패턴의 영향 변화

This study analyzed how the impacts of major teleconnection patterns on December mean temperature in Korea have been changed during the period before and after the regime shift of 1986 for the last 61 years from 1958 to 2018. During the period before the regime shift, the teleconnection patterns originating from the North Atlantic mainly affected the temperature variability in Korea, but its influence almost disappeared after the regime shift. On the other hand, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and warm Arctic and cold Eurasia (WACE) patterns played a more important role in the temperature variability in Korea after the regime shift. Regression analysis showed that the AO could explain about 12% of the total temperature variability before the regime shift, but about 22% after the regime shift. WACE pattern also explained about 4% before the regime shift, but after the regime shift, the importance increased by about 4.5 times to 18%. On the other hand, East Atlantic pattern (EA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which are east-west teleconnection patterns, explained 27% and 11%, respectively, before the regime shift, but had little influence within 3% after the regime shift. This means that the influence of east-west teleconnection patterns disappeared after the regime shift, and teleconnection patterns by the Arctic Circle became more important.

Temperature Prediction Based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory and Convolutional Neural Network Combining Observed and Numerical Forecast Data.

Weather is affected by a complex interplay of factors, including topography, location, and time. For the prediction of temperature in Korea, it is necessary to use data from multiple regions. To this end, we investigate the use of deep neural-network-based temperature prediction model time-series weather data obtained from an automatic weather station and image data from a regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS). To accommodate such different types of data into a single model, a bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) model and a convolutional neural network (CNN) model are chosen to represent the features from the time-series observed data and the RDAPS image data. The two types of features are combined to produce temperature predictions for up to 14 days in the future. The performance of the proposed temperature prediction model is evaluated by objective measures, including the root mean squared error and mean bias error. The experiments demonstrated that the proposed model combining both the observed and RDAPS image data is better in all performance measures for all prediction periods compared with the BLSTM-based model using observed data and the CNN-BLSTM-based model using RDAPS image data alone.

A New Estimation Method for the Timing of Unprecedented Climate Using a GEV Distribution: An Example with Winter Temperature in Korea

As global warming continues, we expect extreme climate events to occur more frequently and intensively and the extremes to become normal eventually. Such timing of when the climate extremes in the present climate become normal in a future climate has been estimated in previous studies, but these studies used different methods and definitions, making an interpretation and application of the results difficult. Defining the year of beginning of a new normal climate as the timing of unprecedented climate (TUC), this study suggests a new estimation method using a return level of extreme temperatures. The TUC was estimated using CMIP5 climate model simulation data with an application to the wintertime daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Korea. With a 50-year return level obtained from Generalized Extreme Value distribution of the CMIP5 historical experiment data, overall in the models, TUC was estimated to come in the 2070s under RCP 8.5 (a business- as-usual) scenario and in the 2090s under RCP 4.5 (an intermediate level of emissions) scenario. Using this new method, TUC can be estimated for various fields globally or regionally in different seasons with different variables, providing a useful guideline for climate change mitigation and adaption policy and also a timetable for the actions.

Changing human-sensible temperature in Korea under a warmer monsoon climate over the last 100 years.

This study explores changes in means and extreme events of human-sensible temperature (HST), which is quantified by selective combination of Universal Apparent Temperature, Heat Index, and a new Wind Chill Index, in Korea for the last 100years (1919-2018) and illustrates the synoptic patterns of the East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) for extreme HST events. The time series analyses show that HST has increased much faster than near-surface air temperature (AT) in winter due to decrease in wind chill as well as to increase in AT. On the other hand, HST in summer, which is higher than AT on average because of high humidity in monsoon climate, has increased at a slow rate compared with those in other seasons. However, more extremely hot, long-lasting HST events have been observed in recent decades, as in 1994, 2013, 2016, and 2018, with shorter recurrent intervals. Greater increases of HST than AT are more distinct in the southern region under maritime subtropical climate than in the temperate climate zone in the north in all seasons. Composite maps for multiple high or low HST extreme events reveal that a dipole pressure anomaly pattern, rather than the intensity at the center of these air masses, is more closely related to the frequency of extreme HST events in Korea: A west high-east low pattern in winter formed by the expansion of the Siberian High accompanying an intense migratory low pressure system, and a south high-north low pattern formed by the westward intrusion of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high in summer after earlier terminations of summer rainy period (Changma). These indicate that monitoring of changing EAMS's characteristics is crucial to the mitigation of potential damages caused by unprecedented HST extreme events in the warmer twenty-first century.

A System Dynamics Analysis of Urban Heat Waves

In this study, we analyzed the potential determinants of urban heat waves in Korea and their dynamic relationship using a system dynamics analysis approach. We developed an integrated causal loop diagram and identified the direct and indirect factors influencing urban heat waves. The followings are the main findings of this study. First, the rise of temperature in Korea is not simply due to the increase of impervious areas affected by urbanization but should be seriously recognized as a critical issue of heat waves which may lead to the annihilation of the areas. Second, for more accurate prediction of the temperature increase and development of effective policy responses, we need a new approach that focuses on a non-linear and dynamic relationship between urban heat wave process and urban safety. Third, it is critical to explore policy measures for maintaining socioeconomic conditions and improving the level of urban safety based on the multi-dimensional examination of causal relationships across various determinants for urban heat waves in South Korea.

The Effects of Atmospheric River Landfalls on Precipitation and Temperature in Korea

The Effects of Atmospheric River Landfalls on Precipitation and Temperature in Korea

국내 지역별 일사량 및 급수온도에 따른 가정용 태양열온수시스템의 적용성 평가

The objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of small-scale residential solar water heater (SWH) according to solar radiation and water supply temperature in Korea from energy, environmental and economic perspectives. In this study, it was assumed that SWH consists of storage tank of 300 L and solar collectors of 6 m2 with an azimuth angle of 0° and a tilt angle of 35°. The results show that the solar radiation incident on the collector and the effective solar radiation actually used in the hot water supply are not in a proportional relationship, thus it is necessary to estimate the energy performance of the SWH based on an effective solar radiation rather than a solar radiation of the meteorological data. It is also observed that greenhouse gases emission reduction of SWH vary by region, up to 14% and it is about 120% better to replace electric boilers than gas boilers through the application of SWH. The economic evaluation results show that if the SWH replaces the gas boiler without receiving the subsidy, the investment cost is not recovered within analysis period of 20 years, whereas if the SWH replaces the electric boiler, the cost is recovered in 12~13 years. This is because electricity saving cost is about 108~132% larger than gas saving cost. Therefore, it is expected that the SWH will provide better economic effect when replacing electric boiler.

Current and Projected Burden of Disease From High Ambient Temperature in Korea.

The objective of the present study was to estimate the current and projected burden of disease from high ambient temperature using population-based data sources of nationwide mortality and morbidity in Korea. Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were estimated using noninjury-related deaths, and cerebrovascular and cardiovascular diseases from recently released nationwide health and mortality databases. Years of life lost and years lost due to disability were measured based on the point prevalence and number of deaths during the study period. Future DALY attributable to heat waves were estimated from projected populations, and temperature predictions for the years 2030 and 2050 were under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 with summertime temperatures above threshold. Relative risks (RR) of total mortality and of cardiovascular disease were 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01, 1.02) and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06, 1.09) for each 1°C increase in temperature above threshold, respectively. The morbidity of heat-related disease was RR 1.67 (95% CI, 1.64, 1.68) for each 1°C increase in temperature above threshold. DALY for all-cause death were 0.49 DALY/1000 in 2011, 0.71 (0.71) DALY/1000 in 2030 and 0.77 (1.72) DALY/1000 in 2050 based on RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). DALY for cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases were 1.24 DALY/1000 in 2011, 1.63 (1.82) DALY/1000 in 2030, and 1.76 (3.66) DALY/1000 in 2050 based on RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). Future excess mortality due to high ambient temperature is expected to be profound in Korea. Efforts to mitigate climate change can provide substantial health benefits via reducing heat-related mortality.

A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea

Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.

온난 및 한랭시즌의 우리나라 지상기온 평가 알고리즘 개발

시공간적 기온정보는 지구온난화와 기후변화의 이해에 있어서 중요한 기상요소이다. 본 연구에서는 인공위성 원격탐사로부터 획득된 공간적으로 균질한 지표면 정보를 이용하여 우리나라 지상기온 평가 알고리즘을 개발하였다. LST(Land Surface Temperature), NDWI(Normalized Difference Water Index), NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)를 독립변수로 하는 지상기온 추정을 위한 다중회귀모형을 제안하고, 우리나라의 지역기후변화를 고려하기 위하여 온난시즌과 한랭시즌에 대한 모형의 회귀상수 및 회귀계수를 도출하였다. 개발된 기온 추정 알고리즘에 의해 산출된 온난 및 한랭시즌의 기온정보는 지상관측기온과 비교하여 우수한 상관관계를 보였고, 3℃ 미만의 RMSE와 거의 0에 가까운 BIAS로 매우 높은 일치성을 보였다. 따라서 인공위성 지표면 원격탐사자료를 활용하고 온난 및 한랭시즌의 구분을 적용한 기온 평가 알고리즘은 우리나라의 지역기후를 평가하는데 있어서 간략하고 유용한 수단이 될 수 있으리라 기대된다.

GARP 모형과 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 잣나무의 지리적 분포 변화

본 연구는 그간 우리나라에서 경제적인 가치를 인정 받아온 수종인 잣나무를 대상으로 잣나무의 현존 분포를 파악하고, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 기후변화 시나리오와 생태적 지위 모형에 기반하여 향후 잣나무의 분포 변화를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 이를 위해 5년간의 NFI 자료에서 조사지점별 잣나무의 풍부도 자료를 추출하여 사용하였으며, 수종에 영향을 미치는 환경요인변수를 선정하기 위해 생태적 지위 모형 가운데 하나인 GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production)를 이용하였다. 총 27개의 환경요인변수에 대해 각각 모형을 구동하고 컨퓨전 매트릭스(Confusion Matrix) 기반 산출 통계량인 AUC (Area Under Curve)가 0.6 이상인 변수들을 선발하여 최종 잠재분포모형을 작성하였다. 그 결과 작성된 모형은 비교적 높은 적합도를 나타냈는데 잣나무는 현재 표고의 범위가 300m에서 1,200m 사이인 지역 및 남부에서 북부에 이르기까지 넓게 자리 잡고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 작성된 모형에 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 결과, 잣나무는 2020년대부터 잠재분포역이 큰 폭으로 축소되며, 2090년대에는 우리나라 대부분의 지역이 잣나무의 생육에 불리할 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구를 통해 기후변화가 잣나무 분포에 미치는 영향을 파악하고, 잣나무와 기후변화와의 상관성에 대한 이해를 높임으로써 향후 지역별 조림수종 선정 및 경제수종 교체 등의 조림적 관점에서 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. The main purpose of this study is to understand the potential geographic distribution of P. koraiensis, which is known to be one of major economic tree species, based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenarios and current geographic distribution from National Forest Inventory(NFI) data using ecological niche modeling. P. koraiensis abundance data extracted from NFI were utilized to estimate current geographic distribution. Also, GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model, one of the ecological niche models, was applied to estimate potential geographic distribution and to project future changes. Environmental explanatory variables showing Area Under Curve (AUC) value bigger than 0.6 were selected and constructed into the final model by running the model for each of the 27 variables. The results of the model validation which was performed based on confusion matrix statistics, showed quite high suitability. Currently P. koraiensis is distributed widely from 300m to 1,200m in altitude and from south to north as a result of national greening project in 1970s although major populations are found in elevated and northern area. The results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of P. koraiensis and projecting their future changes. Future model for P. koraiensis suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090s showing dramatic habitat loss. Considering the increasing status of atmospheric <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> and air temperature in Korea, P. koraiensis seems to experience the significant decrease of potential distribution range in the future. The final model in this study may be used to identify climate change impacts on distribution of P. koraiensis in Korea, and a deeper understanding of its correlation may be helpful when planning afforestation strategies.

Climatological variability of air temperature and precipitation observed in South Korea for the last 50 years

This study analyzed decadal variability in the near-surface air temperature and precipitation and key climatological elements in South Korea from 1960 to 2010. The decadal trend toward increases in annual temperature was conspicuous in large cities at a rate of 0.29 ± 0.08 °C decade−1 compared with 0.11 ± 0.08 °C decade−1 in other stations. The increasing rate in January temperatures has resulted in a rise in annual temperature. The 1990s marked an all-time high in decadal January temperatures, which caused a shift of −3 °C in the northern boundary of the subtropical climate zone, compared with the 1960s–1980s. The shift of −3 °C isotherm to the north occurred in the inland and on the western parts of South Korea in the 1990s. The increasing trend of air temperature in Korea is associated with the general increase in greenhouse gases in East Asia. The decadal precipitation trend has caused a large increase in summer precipitation at a rate of 40.6 ± 4.3 mm decade−1, resulting in an increase of annual precipitation of 27.7 ± 5.5 mm decade−1. The spatial variability of the overlapping 30-year precipitation grew due to increases in precipitation on the southern and eastern parts of South Korea from 1981 to 2010. The northward shift of the subtropical zone has resulted in a rise of heavy rainfall days (≥30 mm day−1) from 1981 to 2010.

온도 증가와 건조 스트레스에 따른 소나무 풍매차대묘의 가계간 생장, 광합성 및 광색소 함량 차이

본 연구는 국내 주요 경제수종인 소나무 풍매차대묘의 가계간 온도 증가와 건조 스트레스에 따른 생장 및 생리 반응 변화를 알아보고자 실시하였다. 온도변화 및 건조 처리에 따른 소나무의 근원경 상대생장율은 대조구와 건조 처리구 모두 온도 변화와 상관없이 강원74가 가장 우수하였다. 3가계 모두 온도 증가와 건조 처리구에서 근원경 생장은 감소하였으며, 저온처리구인 <TEX>$-3^{\circ}C$</TEX> 처리구에서도 <TEX>$0^{\circ}C$</TEX> 처리구보다 낮은 생장율을 보였다. 광합성 속도, 기공전도도 및 증산속도는 3가계 모두 건조 처리구와 온도가 증가할수록 감소하였고, 저온 처리구인 <TEX>$-3^{\circ}C$</TEX> 처리구에서도 <TEX>$0^{\circ}C$</TEX> 처리구보다 낮은 값을 보였다. 그러나 수분 이용효율은 온도 증가와 건조 처리구에서 높았다. 광색소 함량은 온도 증가와 건조 처리구에서 3가계 모두 감소하였지만, 엽록소 a와 b의 비는 건조 처리와 온도가 증가할수록 증가하였다. 총 엽록소 함량은 대조구와 건조 처리구 모두 온도변화와 상관없이 강원74가 가장 높았다. 결론적으로, 온도 증가 및 감소는 소나무의 생리적 반응에 부정적인 영향과 함께 생장을 저하시켰다. 또한, 건조 스트레스도 소나무의 생장 및 생리적 반응에 많은 영향을 미쳐, 생장이 저하되는 것을 알 수 있었다. 특히, 소나무는 온도 감소보다 온도 증가에 더 많은 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났으며, 향후 우리나라의 평균 온도가 <TEX>$6^{\circ}C$</TEX> 이상 증가하게 되면 지역에 따라서 소나무 유묘의 생장이 매우 불량해 질 수도 있을 것으로 생각된다. 본 연구에서는 온도변화 및 건조 스트레스에 의한 생장 및 생리적 반응에 있어 가계간 차이를 확인 할 수 있었는데, 유묘의 초기생장이 가장 우수한 강원74가 다른 두 가계보다 온도 및 건조 스트레스 하에서도 생장 및 생리반응이 가장 우수하였다. The impacts of high temperature and drought were studied on the seedlings of three families (superiorgangwon74, intermediate-gangwon77 and inferior-gangwon132) of P. densiflora which had been selected by the based on the growth indexes of 32-year-old. The seedlings were grown in controlled-environment growth chambers with combinations of four temperatures (<TEX>$-3^{\circ}C$</TEX>, <TEX>$0^{\circ}C$</TEX>, <TEX>$+3^{\circ}C$</TEX> <TEX>$+6^{\circ}C$</TEX>; based on the monthly average for 30 years in Korea) and two water conditions (control, drought). The growth performance, photosynthetic parameters and photosynthetic pigment contents were measured at every 30 days under four temperatures and drought condition, and the end of each treatment. The superior family showed higher relative diameter at root collar growth rate and the dry weight than intermediate and inferior family in all treatments. Under elevated temperature and drought condition, growth rate was decreased, and seedlings showed lower growth rate than that of control in three families under low temperature. Photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and transpiration rate of three families decreased with the increase of temperature and drought condition, and that of seedlings under low temperature was lower than control. But under elevated temperature and drought condition, water use efficiency increased in three families. Photosynthetic pigment contents of leaves decreased under the increase of temperature and drought condition, but chlorophyll a/b ratio increased with the increase of temperature and drought condition in three families. The superior family showed higher total chlorophyll content than intermediate and inferior family in all treatments. In conclusion, P. densiflora is under changed temperature and drought condition, growth was decreased, seedlings more affected in elevated temperature than that of decreased temperature. The increase in monthly average temperature in Korea of more than <TEX>$6^{\circ}C$</TEX>, P. densiflora seedling growth in depending on region may decrease. In this study, the superior family(gangwon74) showed more excellent growth and physiological responses than intermediate (gangwon77) and inferior(gangwon132) family under changes temperature and drought.

Modeling behavior control of golden apple snails at different temperatures

The golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata) is a detrimental invasive pest of rice in Asia. Temperature is a critical factor to determine their invasiveness including the behavior and distribution of snails. In this study, the behavioral responses of golden apple snails acclimated to different water temperatures (15°C, 20°C, 25°C, and 30°C) were examined based on Markov chain analysis, Shannon entropy, and Random forest modeling. Markov chains revealed that most snails maintained their previous behavior at low temperatures, while behavior transition tended to be higher at high temperature. Shannon entropy was also dependent on temperature (low at low temperature and high at high temperature), indicating that snails maintained their previous behavior for a long time at low temperature regardless having motion and motionless behavior, whereas they changed continuously their behavioral types at high temperature. The Random forest model showed that Shannon entropy at low temperature was influenced by crawling at the bottom or at side of the aquarium (motion behavior), while clinging to the side of the aquarium or clinging to the side of the aquarium with stretching out antennae were important behaviors determining Shannon entropy at high temperature. Our results showed that snails controlled their behavior to reduce their thermal stress and maintain a stable internal state in harsh environment. With this mechanism, they are able to overwinter in the open fields with low temperature in Korea, resulting in the increase of potential damage in agricultural ecosystems. Therefore, further study on the development of adequate management system is required to avoid their invasiveness to open water systems and ecological impacts. Finally, Shannon entropy, Markov chain, and Random forest model are useful computation methods to quantify the effects of temperature changes on the behavior of golden apple snails.

PC기반의 철도 온도환경에 적합한 모니터링 장치 구현

The diurnal range of temperature in korea is increasing. We know that the environment has deteriorated through report about railway damage and economic loss caused by climate. In these conditions, Monitoring device for railway must operate to support the operations and maintenance. Therefore, In this paper, COM-based monitoring device implemented using Industrial-Extended electronic components and made, We tested compliance about temperature environment of actual railway. We verified through testing about cold and dry heat of monitoring device. Used components in this product will be able to utilize the development of the railway industry of electronics.

텔레매틱스 기술을 이용한 자동차 주행 패턴 및 냉간 배출거리 평가에 관한 연구

In this study, the telematics device was installed on the car (OBD-II) to collect the information on the operation conditions from each sample vehicle. Based on the information the domestic driving pattern was analysed and the ratio of cold start length was estimated. As a result of analysis for driving pattern, we found a difference in the frequency of driving on the hourly or seasonal basis. Then, the driving pattern of the rush hours, weekdays, and weekends could be derived. Also, from the study, an average of 2.22 times per day occurred in a single trip and average driving distance for the trip was 15.72 km. In addition, the proportion of cold start length was analyzed to be 16.11%. The seasonal cold start length has big difference from season to season(Winter 26.63%, Summer 8.22%, Intermediate 12.65%). There was an inverse relationship between the outside temperature and ratio of cold start length. In order to improve the accuracy of the cold emission estimation, it is necessary to apply domestic ratio of cold start length that driving pattern and temperature in Korea is reflected.

RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 극한지수 변화 전망

본 논문에서는 미래 극한기후의 변화를 확인하고자 지역기후모형을 이용하여, STARDEX에서 제시한 극한지수를 계산하고 경향성 분석을 통해 미래 극한기후의 지속성과 공간적 분포의 변화양상을 파악하였다. 강수관련 극한지수를 분석한 결과, 수도권과 경기도, 강원도 영동지역, 남해안 지역에서 증가경향성이 확인되었고, 중부 내륙지역에서는 감소경향성이 전망되었다. 기온관련 극한지수를 분석한 결과 기후변화로 인해 미래 우리나라의 평균 기온이 현재보다 증가하는 것을 알 수 있었다. 강수관련 극한지수 중 집중호우 한계점은 경향성에 대한 기울기 값이 서귀포에서 0.229, 지속기간 5일 최대 강수량은 서귀포에서 5.692, 최대 건조지속기간은 속초에서 0.099로 확인되었다. 기온관련 극한지수 중 Hotdays 한계점의 경향성에 대한 기울기 값은 인천에서 0.077, 최대혹서기기간은 울진에서 0.162, Coldnight 한계점은 인제에서 0.075, 동결일수는 통영에서 -0.193으로 확인되었다. The study uses a regional climate model to check future changes in extreme climate, to calculate extreme indexes presented by STARDEX, and to analyze the trends to predict the continuity and changes in the spatial distribution of extreme climate in the future. An analysis of extreme climate indices showed that they are likely to increase in the Seoul metropolitan area, in Gyeonggi-do, in Yongdong in Gangwon-do, and in the southern shore region of Korea. It is, however, forecasted to diminish in the central inland region. The analysis also showed that the average temperature in Korea will increase because of climate change. On the other hand, an analysis of extreme rainfall indexes showed that the trend of heavy rainfall threshold is 0.229 in Seogwipo, the greatest five-day rainfall is 5.692 in Seogwipo, and the longest dry period is 0.099 in Sokcho. Of extreme temperature indexes, the trend of Hotdays threshold is 0.777 in Incheon and the longest heat wave is 0.162 in Uljin. The Coldnight threshold is 0.075 in Inje and -0.193 in Tongyeong, according to the analysis.

Spatial modeling of the highest daily maximum temperature in Korea via max-stable processes

This paper examines the annual highest daily maximum temperature (DMT) in Korea by using data from 56 weather stations and employing spatial extreme modeling. Our approach is based on max-stable processes (MSP) with Schlather’s characterization. We divide the country into four regions for a better model fit and identify the best model for each region. We show that regional MSP modeling is more suitable than MSP modeling for the entire region and the pointwise generalized extreme value distribution approach. The advantage of spatial extreme modeling is that more precise and robust return levels and some indices of the highest temperatures can be obtained for observation stations and for locations with no observed data, and so help to determine the effects and assessment of vulnerability as well as to downscale extreme events.

Does cold spell make problem these days when global warming is on the progress?

Global warming is raising the average temperature in Korea throughout the country and all the seasons and the rate of increase is particularly high in the winter as reported by many previous studie...