Global Climate Change Analysis based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios and Disaster Damage Analysis Using Hazards-US (HAZUS)

Abstract

In this study, a global temperature rise by +1.9 to 5.2 ℃ was expected at the end of the 21st century due to greenhouse gas emissions based on a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a 1.6 ℃ increase in annual average temperature in Korea over the last 109 years (1912 to 2020) was confirmed. These climate changes have increased heat waves and extreme climate indices worldwide, and natural disasters have increased in Korea due to irregular changes in heat waves and precipitation. In addition, this study on disaster damage estimation was conducted using Hazards-US-Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH), a disaster damage assessment platform used in the United States. HAZUS-MH was selected because it is stable and robust for various disaster scenarios as well as specific geographical and climate conditions and is reliable for disaster management and response even though it has difficulty reflecting specific domestic environments. The results showed that seismic damage reduction costs can be significantly decreased through the integration of early warning and preventive measures under the scenario of Pohang earthquake magnitude 5.4. This study provides insight into domestic climate change and disaster management and emphasizes the need for future response and model development. An effective response to climate change is expected to play an important role in ensuring national and regional safety and stability.