The decline in marine resources, exemplified by the Sakura shrimp (Lucensosergia lucens), highlights the pressing need for aquaculture solutions. This study pioneers the development of the first individual-based model (IBM) to explore the impact of temperature on Sakura shrimp larvae development. By integrating novel experimental data on the effect of temperature on larvae development and survival, and individual variability, our model provides insights crucial for informed artificial rearing practices. In our breeding experiments, larvae were successfully raised to the third protozoa stage, with development time and survival rates showing high sensitivity to water temperature. Notably, embryonic development times exhibited significant variations across temperature conditions, with durations of 3 days at 14 °C, 2 days at 18 °C, and 1.3 days at 26 °C. However, none of the individuals reached adulthood, highlighting the complexity of larval development under different thermal regimes. Our individual-based model, integrating experimental data and insights from Omori's (1971) work, revealed the Ratkowsky et al. (1983) equation as the most suitable representation of temperature-dependent larval growth. Similarly, the Gaussian equation emerged as the optimal choice for capturing temperature-dependent survival patterns. Notably, the model predicted an optimal larval temperature of 24 °C. By scrutinizing these patterns, our model not only elucidates the temperature-dependent dynamics of Sakura shrimp larval development but also provides a valuable framework for optimizing artificial rearing practices. Moving forward, future iterations of the model should incorporate considerations of salinity and environmental effects on hatching success to further refine our understanding of Sakura shrimp aquaculture.
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