Temperature-dependent Development Rates Research Articles

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.

The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-TL)(TH-T)1/2) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.

Assessing dengue risk globally using non-Markovian models

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak conditions and quantifying the outbreak risk. Given that the life cycle of Aedes mosquitoes is strongly influenced by habitat temperature, numerous studies have utilized temperature-dependent development rates of these mosquitoes to construct virus transmission and outbreak risk models. In this study, we contribute to existing research by developing a mechanistic model for the mosquito life cycle that accurately captures its non-Markovian nature. Beginning with integral equations to track the mosquito population across different life cycle stages, we demonstrate how to derive the corresponding differential equations using phase-type distributions. This approach can be further applied to similar non-Markovian processes that are currently described with less accurate Markovian models. By fitting the model to data on human dengue cases, we estimate several model parameters, allowing the development of a global spatiotemporal dengue risk map. This risk model employs temperature and precipitation data to assess the environmental suitability for dengue outbreaks in a given area.

Modeling linear and nonlinear relationship between temperature and development rate of Amblyseuis swirskii (Acari: Phytoseiidae)

In recent years, the utilization of biocontrol agents to administer agriculture pests has received more attention, which has conduce to an growth in companies generating biocontrol agents, including predators and parasitoids. Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot as a part of predatory communities in greenhouses is currently used worldwide as a biocontrol agent against small insects and various mites, especially to suppress the population of the two-spotted spider mite (TSSM), Tetranychus urticae Koch. To improve mass rearing of A. swirskii and optimize its application in integrated pest management programs, its development rate was determined at seven constant temperatures ranging from 15 to 34 (±1)°C, 50±10% RH and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h under laboratory conditions. None of the eggs hatched at 34°C and no development was observed. To determine the lower temperature threshold (T0) and thermal constant (K) of different stages of the predator, two linear models (ordinary and Ikemoto) were used. In addition, 26 nonlinear models were fitted to evaluate the development rate at different temperatures. The lower temperature threshold (T0) and thermal constant (K) of total immature stages were estimated by the ordinary (3.72°C and 133.22 DD) and Ikemoto (10.64°C and 86.51DD) linear models. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the best model for the description of the temperature-dependent development rate of the egg, larval, protonymphal, and dutonymphal stages was the Ratkowsky model and for the whole pre-adult stage, it was the Logan-6 model. Our results provided a detailed evaluation of the thermal requirements of A. swirskii, which can be important in improving the role of this mite in biological control programs.

Developmental Differentiations of Major Maize Stemborers Due to Global Warming in Temperate and Tropical Climates

While many insects are in decline due to global warming, the effect of rising temperatures on crop insect pests is uncertain. A capacity to understand future changes in crop pest populations remains critical to ensure food security. Using temperature-dependent mathematical models of the development of four maize stemborers in temperate and tropical regions, we evaluated the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on development time. While recognizing the limitations of the temperature-dependent development rate approach, we found that global warming could either be beneficial or detrimental to pest development, depending on the optimal temperature for the development of the species and scenarios of climate change. Expected responses range from null development to 1.5 times faster development than expected today. These results suggest that in the medium term, the studied species could benefit from global warming with an accelerated development, while in the long term, their development could either be delayed or accelerated, which may impact their dynamics with implications on maize cultivation.

Temperature-Dependent Development Models Describing the Effects of Temperature on the Development of the Fall Armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

The fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is an economically important pest that recently invaded Africa and Asia; however, information regarding its biological capacity to establish itself in newly invaded environments is largely unknown. We investigated the effects of temperature on the development and survival of the invaded populations of S. frugiperda and selected mathematical models to evaluate its development in a new environment. S. frugiperda exhibited optimum survival and growth at temperatures between 28 °C and 30 °C. The lower and upper thermal thresholds for the egg-to-adult life cycle were 13.51 °C and 34.13 °C, respectively. We compared seven mathematical models and found that the Shi model was the most suitable for describing the temperature-dependent development rate of S. frugiperda. Therefore, the Shi mathematical model may be used to predict both the occurrence of particular developmental stages and the geographic distribution to implement measures for the management of S. frugiperda in agricultural fields.

Modeling Temperature-Dependent Development Rate in Insects and Implications of Experimental Design.

Characterizing the temperature-dependent development rate requires empirical data acquired by rearing individuals at different temperatures. Many mathematical models can be fitted to empirical data, making model comparison a mandatory step, yet model selection practices widely vary. We present guidelines for model selection using statistical criteria and the assessment of biological relevance of fits, exemplified throughout a Lepidoptera pest dataset. We also used in silico experiments to explore how experimental design and species attributes impact estimation accuracy of biological traits. Our results suggested that the uncertainty in model predictions was mostly determined by the rearing effort and the variance in development times of individuals. We found that a higher number of tested temperatures instead of a higher sample size per temperature may lead to more accurate estimations of model parameters. Our simulations suggested that an inappropriate model choice can lead to biased estimated values of biological traits (defined as attributes of temperature dependent development rate, i.e., optimal temperature for development and critical thresholds), highlighting the need for standardized model selection methods. Therefore, our results have direct implications for future studies on the temperature-dependent development rate of insects.

Temperature-dependent development models describing the effects of temperature on the development of Spodoptera eridania.

The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a polyphagous species native to the American tropics that recently invaded Africa. Knowledge of the impact of temperature on its development and survival is important to understand the risks of this species spreading to other regions and to develop phenological models for pest management. This study evaluated the effects of temperature on the development and survival of S. eridania and selected mathematical models to simulate its development. The southern armyworm completed its development between 15 and 32 °C, but eggs did not hatch at 34 °C. Lower survival and higher rates of deformities in adults were recorded at 15 and 32 °C. Among the ten mathematical models evaluated, Briere-2, Lactin-2 and Shi were considered suitable for describing the temperature-dependent development rate of S. eridania. The lower thermal threshold estimated by these models for the egg to adult life cycle ranged from 10.8 to 12.1 °C, whereas the upper threshold ranged between 33.9 and 35.0 °C. The southern armyworm can develop within a wide range of temperatures, which partially explains its wide distribution in regions with different climatic conditions, and demonstrates its potential to occur in regions outside its native range. Our findings can be employed in the development of management strategies using the selected models to predict the occurrence of S. eridania in the field and determine the most effective times to implement control measures.

Development of the limpet Testudinalia testudinalis (O.F. Müller, 1776) (Patellogastropoda, Mollusca) from the White Sea, with special reference to the radula

ABSTRACT Development of the limpet Testudinalia testudinalis collected from the White Sea was studied using light and scanning electron microscopy. Cleavage and early development of T. testudinalis were consistent with the general pattern of patellogastropod development, differing in only minor details, such as temperature-dependent developmental rates. A pre-torsional veliger radula was detected by calcofluor white staining of unpolymerized chitin. The veliger radula consisted of nine transverse rows with three teeth per row, which transformed into the radula of newly settled juveniles with five teeth per row (one central and two pairs of lateral teeth). The juvenile radula, with two pairs of lateral and one pair of hook-like marginal teeth, resembled the adult radula in terms of teeth form and co-localization. Radula formation differs between the larva and adult in that each tooth is formed by several odontoblasts and microvillar secretion in the former, whereas it is formed by numerous cells and apocrine secretion in the latter.

Effect of the temperature on development of Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae) feeding on cucumber leaves

ABSTRACT The effect of seven constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, and 35 ± 1°C) on developmental time of Tetranychus urticae Koch on cucumber leaf discs was determined under laboratory conditions of 60 ± 5% RH and a photoperiod of 16 L:8D. The egg-to-adult developmental time decreased significantly with increasing temperature, except at 35°C. To describe the developmental rate of T. urticae as a function of temperature, one linear, and nine nonlinear models (Logan-6 & 10, Lactin-1& 2, Briere-1& 2, Analytis-3, Polynomial, and Equation-16) were fitted to data. By means of the linear model, the lower temperature threshold (T 0) and thermal constant (K) were estimated for the entire immature development of female mites as 7.11°C and 227.27 ± 9.72 DD, respectively. Based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and R 2 adj, Logan-10, Lactin-1, Analytis-3, Logan-10, Analytis-3 were found to be the best models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of eggs, larvae, protonymphs, and deutonymphs, as well as of total immature development from egg to adult. The results may serve as input for the development of a simulation model that can be used to predict the population dynamics of T. urticae inhabiting cucumber crops.

Life history and temperature-dependence of cassava-colonising populations of Bemisia tabaci

The whiteflies belonging to the species group Bemisia tabaci transmit viruses that are the greatest constraint to the production of cassava, Africa’s most important food security crop. We studied the life history of an endemic African population of B. tabaci SSA-ESA at six constant temperatures (16, 20, 24, 28, 32, 36 °C) in controlled environment chambers, and for 10 generations in the field. Oviposition occurred between 20 and 28 °C, with highest fecundity (114.5 ± 88.2) eggs per female at 20 °C. Similarly, B. tabaci adult females average survival time was longest (19.7 days) at 24 °C, and shortest (8.5 days) at 36 °C. Immature development time decreased with increasing temperature from 59.3 days at 16 °C to 16.3 days at 28 °C, and increased above 28 °C. A constant temperature of 36 °C was lethal to eggs and first instars and no immature stage developed further to adults at this temperature. Several temperature-driven models were fitted for describing the species development, survival and reproduction using Insect Life Cycle Modelling (ILCYM®) software. Median temperature-dependent development rates in individual immature life stages were statistically described by Taylor, Briere 1 and Tb (Logan) models. Temperature-dependent mortality and senescence rates in immature stages were described by using parabolic nonlinear models. The longevity of adult females and oviposition time was best described by the Weibull distribution. Maximum population growth was predicted between 26 and 28 °C. These results will be useful for spatio-temporal analysis of climate change impacts on the distribution and abundance of this pest.

Temperature-dependent development and survival of small hive beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)

The small hive beetle (SHB) Aethina tumida Murray, (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is an invasive pest of honey bees recently found in Korea. We investigated the influence of temperature on the development and survival of immature SHBs. The beetle’s immature stages were exposed to different constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 37 and 39 °C) under stable and continuous dark conditions and a relative humidity of 75 ± 5%. All immature stages successfully developed to the next stage at the temperature range from 15 to 39 °C, except for the egg at 15 °C and wandering larvae and pupae, which suffered 100% mortalities at 39 °C. Total immature developmental period at 18.6 and 35 °C ranged from 53.9 days to 20, respectively. Lower developmental thresholds were determined according to a linear model as 16.0, 11.6, 9.6, 12.6, and 11.8 °C for eggs, feeding larvae, wandering larvae, pupae and total immatures, respectively. Among the non-linear models, Analytis-3/Briere-1 was selected as the best to describe the temperature-dependent developmental rate of all immature stages of SHBs based on Akaike information criterion corrected (AICc) values and biological adequacy. According to this model, optimum and high developmental threshold temperatures for eggs, feeding larvae, wandering larvae, pupae and total immatures were 39.1, 36.5, 33.2, 35.5, and 34.8 °C and 46.5, 44, 40.4, 42.5 and 41.5 °C, respectively. According to the polynomial regression model, maximum survival was estimated at temperatures of 28.2, 28.7, 26.7 and 26.5 °C, of eggs, feeding larvae, wandering larvae and pupae, respectively. This study can be used to predict the potential distribution of SHB in non-native locations.

PhenModel: A temperature-dependent phenology/voltinism model for a herbivorous insect incorporating facultative diapause and budburst

A comprehensive phenology/voltinism model was developed for Phratora vulgatissima, an important pest of bioenergy crops. The model, phenModel, was developed based on development times of different life cycle stages (eggs, larvae, pupae, pre-oviposition, oviposition, sexual maturation) obtained from constant temperature laboratory experiments. As part of this study, a number of linear and non-linear models which describe the temperature-dependent development rate (inverse of development time) for each of the different life cycle stages were fitted. Based on the criteria of model parsimony and model fit, the non-linear Lactin-2 model was chosen as the optimum model to describe temperature-driven development in P. vulgatissima. To account for the variation in development times between individuals, an important but often ignored aspect in phenology models, a number of stochastic models (2- and 3- parameter Weibull and logistic models) were evaluated, based on the assumption that normalised development times conform to a similar shaped ('same shape') distribution. Novel aspects of the phenology model include the incorporation of a biologically relevant biofix, based on a budburst model for Salix viminalis, and a photoperiod threshold to induce facultative diapause. The model, which is written in R for accessibility, requires inputs of daily minimum and maximum temperature and site latitude and produces outputs describing the timing of completion of developmental stages for specified proportions of the population. It was evaluated against available field data and found to largely reproduce the observations providing a measure of its potential utility. A key component of the model allows for a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. The model is structured so that it can easily be adapted for other leaf-feeding beetles which display a facultative reproductive diapause cued by photoperiod, and where the onset of oviposition is dependent on budburst, assuming relevant life cycle stage parameters are available.

Temperature-Dependent Development of Immature Phyllonorycter ringoniella (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) and Its Stage Transition Models.

Asiatic apple leafminer, Phyllonorycter ringoniella (Matsumura), is an important insect pest of apple in Northeast Asia. Its larvae mine the leaves and are best managed by targeted sprays. Little is known about its thermal development characteristics, thus, immature P. ringoniella development was investigated under eight constant temperatures (13.3, 15.3, 20.7, 23.6, 26.1, 30.0, 32.3, and 35.0°C) in the laboratory. The total developmental period of the immature stage (egg-pupa) was inversely related to temperature and decreased from 76.4 d at 13.3°C to 25.9 d at 26.1°C. The developmental periods of eggs, larvae, and pupae ranged from 4.8 to 15.2, 15.5 to 40.3, and 5.7 to 21.6 d, respectively. Eggs, larvae, and pupae did not survive at 35.0°C. According to the ordinary linear model, the lower developmental threshold temperatures for egg, larva, pupa, and total immature stage were estimated as 6.7, 6.7, 9.6, and 7.1°C, and the thermal constants as 93.5, 286.5, 94.6, and 480.1 degree-days (DD), respectively. There were large differences among 11 nonlinear models for estimating lower and upper temperature thresholds, and small differences in estimating optimal temperature. Nonlinear temperature-dependent developmental rates were best represented by Lactin-1 model for egg and Briere-1 model for other stages. Stage transition models from eggs to adults of P. ringoniella were constructed by two-parameter Weibull function with the respective selected nonlinear developmental rate models. This study provides a fundamental understanding of thermal traits of P. ringoniella development which will be a useful tool to predict stage transition and for developing decision-based spray timings for integrated pest management.

Thermal Requirements and Development Response to Constant Temperatures by Nesidiocoris tenuis (Hemiptera: Miridae), and Implications for Biological Control

Nesidiocoris tenuis (Reuter) (Hemiptera: Miridae), a common zoophytophagus bug, is a biological control agent for several groups of noxious agricultural pests, including whiteflies, aphids, and leafminers. To improve mass-rearing of this species and to optimize its application in integrated pest management, nymphal survival and developmental times of this predator were examined at seven constant temperatures ranging from 14 through 34°C. Eggs developed to adulthood at all temperatures tested. Egg-adult developmental time decreased sharply with increasing temperature, except at 34°C (17.21 d), for which developmental time was significantly longer than that obtained at 31°C (15.59 d). The lowest (11.36%) and highest (28.26%) percentage of mortality was found at 28 and 14°C, respectively. To describe the development rate of immature stages of N. tenuis as a function of temperature, two linear and 26 nonlinear models were fitted. The lower temperature threshold (T0) and thermal constant (K) of total immature stages were estimated by the ordinary (10.94°C and 318.37 DD) and Ikemoto (10.28°C and 339.57 DD) linear models. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Lactin-1, Analytis-1/Allahyari and Janisch/Kontodimas were the best models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of egg, nymph and whole immature stages of the predator, respectively. Our findings provide information on N. tenuis biology that will improve application of this predator as a biological control agent.

Novel Temperature-Dependent Development Rate Models for Postdiapause Egg Eclosion of Three Important Arthropod Pests Found in Commercial Christmas Tree Plantations of Southern Québec, Canada.

The balsam twig aphid Mindarus abietinus Koch (Hemiptera: Aphididae), the spruce spider mite Oligonychus ununguis (Jacobi) (Acari: Tetranychidae), and the pine needle scale Chionaspis pinifoliae (Fitch) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) are three important pests for the Christmas tree industry of Québec, Canada. Temperature-dependent development rates for postdiapause overwintering eggs of these species have never been studied for populations of southern Québec, where the vast majority of Christmas trees are grown. The accumulation of physiological time in growing degree days (GDD) is a standard tool to predict egg eclosion dates for pests, when first generation immatures are most vulnerable to insecticidal control. Development rates for postdiapause eggs were tested at four or five constant temperatures in the 11-23°C range under controlled conditions, based on time before hatching for eggs collected in a balsam fir plantation in late winter. The standard linear model and three published nonlinear models were fitted to the data and compared for their ability to estimate key biological temperature parameters and to predict development rates of postdiapause eggs. Validation of model predictions of egg eclosion time on balsam fir in the field was reasonably accurate using the classical linear model where field-accumulated GDD were calculated with a particular interpretation of the average method based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The linear model could predict mean egg eclosion within around 5 d of eclosion dates observed in the field.

Comparison of Thermal Performance Equations in Describing Temperature-Dependent Developmental Rates of Insects: (III) Phenological Applications

National Natural Science Foundation of China (31400348); Jiangsu Provincial Forestry Innovation Project (LYSX[2016]04 ); PAPD of Jiangsu Province; U.S. Department of Agriculture (1009746)

Using the loess method to describe the effect of temperature on development rate

Temperature has a significant influence on development rates of insects and mites. Many parametric models were built to describe the temperature-dependent development rates. However, these models provided different shapes of the curves of development rate versus temperature. For different datasets, investigators have to spend much time on considering which the parametric model is the best for describing the temperature-dependent development rates. In the present study, we encourage investigators to use an important non-parametric model, the loess method, which belongs to local regression methods. The loesS method is used to fit some published data on the development rate of aphids to check the goodness-of-fit. We find that the loess method is very flexible for fitting the given datasets. Thus, we consider that the loess method can be used to describe the effect of temperature on the development rate of insects or mites.

Temperature-dependent development of diapausing larvae of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

Temperature-dependent development rate, percent diapause induction (hibernation at low temperature and aestivation at high temperature), and survival of diapausing larvae of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe, 1885) were examined on 13 constant temperatures ranging from 8 to 40°C. Development of hibernating and aestivating larvae occurred from 10 to 25°C and 27–38°C, respectively. However, no development occurred at 8°C and 40°C. To determine actual thermal conditions that affect development and trigger both kind of diapause (hibernation and aestivation), various thermal parameters were estimated by fitting the development rate data to two linear (Ordinary equation and Ikemoto & Takai) models and thirteen non-linear models. The lower thermal thresholds (Tmin) for development of diapausing larvae of C. partellus were calculated as 9.60°C and 10.29°C using the ordinary linear model and Ikemoto & Takai model, respectively. Similarly, the thermal constants (K) estimated using the ordinary linear model was 333.33 degree-days and that estimated with Ikemoto & Takai model was 338.92 degree-days. Among the non-linear models, Lactin-2 followed by Lactin-1 were found to be the best as these models estimated the critical temperatures (Tmin, Tmax and Topt) similar to those of observed values. Conclusively, the Ikemoto & Takai linear model and Lactin-2 followed by Lactin-1 non-linear models are useful and efficient for describing temperature-dependent development and estimating the temperature thresholds of diapausing larvae of C. partellus. Our findings provided fundamental information for estimation of thermal requirement and temperature based development models for diapausing larvae of C. partellus. This information will be highly useful for predicting the occurrence, seasonal emergence, number of generations and population dynamics of C. partellus.

Timing of cherry tree blooming: Contrasting effects of rising winter low temperatures and early spring temperatures

Phenology reflects the interplay of climate and biological development. Early spring phenological phenomena are particularly important because the end of diapause or dormancy is related not only to heat accumulation in the early spring but also probably to winter low temperatures. Although a warmer winter can reduce overwintering mortality in many insects and plants, it also reduces the accumulation of chilling time that often triggers the end of diapause or dormancy. We examined a continuous 67-year time series of the first flowering date of cherry trees and compared three phenological models based on the temperature-dependent developmental rate: (i) the accumulated degree days (ADD) method, (ii) the number of days transferred to a standardized temperature (DTS) method, and (iii) the accumulated developmental progress (ADP) method. The ADP method performed the best but only slightly better than the DTS method. We further explained the residuals from the ADP method by an additive model using the mean winter minimum daily temperatures, the number of days with low temperatures (represented by daily minimum temperature) below a critical low temperature, and the minimum annual extreme temperature. These three temperature variables explained more than 57.5% deviance of the ADP model residuals. Increased mean winter low temperatures can delay the blooming of cherry trees by reducing the accumulation of chilling time, whereas reduced numbers of cold days can shift the blooming to become earlier. Overall, rising winter low temperatures will delay the flowering time, while rising early spring temperatures directly shift earlier the flowering time. The flowering time has been shifted to earlier, and the balance from the opposing effects of rising winter low temperatures and early spring temperatures explains this shift.

Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Model Improved With Relative Humidity and Precipitation-Driven Egg Hatching.

We propose an improved Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance model that takes into account the effect of relative humidity (RH) on adult survival, as well as rainfall-triggered egg hatching. The model uses temperature-dependent development rates described in the literature as well as documented estimates for mosquito survival in environments with high RH, and for egg desiccation. We show that combining the two additional components leads to better agreement with surveillance trap data and with dengue incidence reports in various municipalities of Puerto Rico than incorporating either alone or neither. Capitalizing on the positive association between disease incidence and vector abundance, this improved model is therefore useful to estimate incidence of Ae. aegypti-borne diseases in locations where the vector is abundant year-round.