Annual Temperature Range Research Articles

Prediction of the Potentially Suitable Areas of Actinidia latifolia in China Based on Climate Change Using the Optimized MaxEnt Model

Actinidia latifolia, with the highest vitamin C content in its genus, is a unique wild relative of kiwifruit that could be important for genetic breeding research. Climate change significantly influences the distribution range of wild plants. Accurately assessing the potential distribution of wild kiwifruit and its response to climate change is crucial for the effective protection and sustainable utilization of its germplasm resources. In this study, we utilized the optimized MaxEnt model to predict the potential habitats of A. latifolia in China, employing the jackknife test to assess the importance of environmental variables in our modeling process. The results showed that annual precipitation (Bio12) and temperature annual range (Bio7) emerged as the most influential environmental variables affecting the distribution of this kiwifruit wild relative. As radiative forcing and time increase, the potential habitats of A. latifolia in China are projected to shrink southward, thereby exacerbating habitat fragmentation. This research offers significant scientific references for the investigation, protection, cultivation, and application of wild relatives of the kiwifruit.

Predicting the distribution of potentially suitable habitat in China for Cirsium japonicum Fisch. ex DC. under future climate scenarios based on the R-optimized MaxEnt model.

Cirsium japonicum contains a variety of medicinal components with good clinical efficacy. With the rapid changes in global climate, it is increasingly important to study the distribution of species habitats and the factors influencing their adaptability. Utilizing the MaxEnt model, we forecasted the present and future distribution regions of suitable habitats for C. japonicum under various climate scenarios. The outcome showed that under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. japonicum is 2,303,624 km2 and the highly suitable area is 79,117 km2. The distribution of C. japonicum is significantly influenced by key environmental factors such as temperature annual range, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation of the wettest month. In light of future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. japonicum is anticipated to progressively relocate toward the western and northern regions, leading to an expansion in the total suitable area. These findings offer valuable insights into the conservation, sustainable utilization, and standardized cultivation of wild C. japonicum resources.

MaxEnt-Based Potential Distribution Mapping and Range Shift under Future Climatic Scenarios for an Alpine Bamboo Thamnocalamus spathiflorus in Northwestern Himalayas

Thamnocalamus spathiflorus is a shrubby woody bamboo invigorating at the alpine and sub-alpine region of the northwestern Himalayas. The present investigation was conducted to map the potential distribution of Th. spathiflorus in the western Himalayas for current and future climate scenario using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM). In total, 125 geo-coordinates were collected for the species presence from Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Uttarakhand (UK) states of India and modelled to predict the current distribution using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, along with 13 bioclimatic variables selected after multi-collinearity test. Model output was supported with a significant value of the Area Under the “Receiver Operating Characteristics” Curve (AUC = 0.975 ± 0.019), and other confusion matrix-derived accuracy measures. The variables, namely precipitation seasonality (Bio 15), precipitation (Prec), annual temperature range (Bio 7), and altitude (Alt) showed highest level of percentage contribution (72.2%) and permutation importance (60.9%) in predicting the habitat suitability of Th. spathiflorus. The actual (1 km2 buffer zone) and predicted estimates of species cover were ~136 km2 and ~982 km2, respectively. The predicted range was extended from Chamba (HP) in the north to Pithoragarh (UK) in southeast, which further protracted to Nepal. Furthermore, the distribution modelling under future climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) for year 2050 and 2070 showed an eastern centroidal shift with slight decline of the species area by ~16 km2 and ~46 km2, respectively. This investigation employed the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC6)–shared socio-economics pathways (SSP245) for cross-validation purposes. The model was used to determine the habitat suitability and potential distribution of Th. spathiflorus in relation to the current distribution and RCP 8.5 future scenarios for the years 2021–2040 and 2061–2080, respectively. It showed a significant decline in the distribution area of the species between year 2030 and 2070. Overall, this is the pioneer study revealing the eco-distribution prediction modelling of this important high-altitude bamboo species.

Interrelationships and Environmental Influences of Photosynthetic Capacity and Hydraulic Conductivity in Desert Species Populus pruinosa

An improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying plant adaptation to habitat heterogeneity can be achieved by clarifying the climate-driving factors of the hydraulic and photosynthetic traits of different populations. With a focus on Populus pruinosa Schrenk, which is the predominant tree species in the desert riparian forests of the Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, this study investigated the hydraulic and photosynthetic trait relationships and their interactions with environmental factors in 11 P. pruinosa populations using a Pearson correlation analysis, plant trait networks, a redundancy analysis, and a least squares linear regression analysis. The results showed that the degree of variation in the hydraulic traits was higher than that in the photosynthetic traits. The net photosynthetic rate (Pn) showed a significantly positive correlation with leaf-specific conductivity (Kl) and the Huber value (Hv). The Hv exhibited a significantly positive correlation with the water-use efficiency and Kl, and the branch–leaf mass ratio significantly affected the hydraulic traits. The groundwater depth (GD) in natural P. pruinosa forest habitats ranged from 3.4 to 7.9 m. With an increase in the annual average temperature, the hydraulic conductivity of the xylem significantly increased; with an increase in GD, Pn and Kl significantly decreased. The temperature annual range, temperature seasonality (standard deviation), min temperature of the coldest month, and GD were significantly correlated with the diameter and average path length of the overall trait network parameters, and these environmental factors affected the coordination of the functional traits of P. pruinosa.

The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction.

Our study utilized 374 geographical distribution records of H. mutabilis and 19 bioclimatic factors, employing the MaxEnt model and the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). The key environmental variables influencing the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis were analyzed through the comprehensive contribution rate, permutation importance, and Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on this analysis, the contemporary and future suitable distribution areas and their extents were predicted. The results indicate that the key limiting factor affecting the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis is the precipitation of the driest month (bio14), with secondary factors being annual precipitation (bio12), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual temperature range (bio7). Under contemporary climate conditions, the total suitable area for H. mutabilis is approximately 2,076,600 km2, primarily concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions of southeastern China. Under low-to-medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), the total suitable area of H. mutabilis shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing compared to the current scenario. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), it exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The spatial pattern changes indicate that the retention rate of suitable areas for H. mutabilis ranges from 95.28% to 99.28%, with the distribution centers primarily located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces, showing an overall migration trend towards the west and north. These findings suggest that H. mutabilis possesses a certain level of adaptability to climate change. However, it is crucial to consider regional drought and sudden drought events in practical cultivation and introduction processes. The results of our study provide a scientific basis for the rational cultivation management, conservation, and utilization of germplasm resources of H. mutabilis.

Implications of Ecological Drivers on Roan Antelope Populations in Mokala National Park, South Africa

Climate change has massive global impacts and affects a wide range of species. Threatened species such as the roan antelope (Hippotragus equinus) are particularly vulnerable to these changes because of their ecological requirements. Attempts to address concerns about the roan’s vulnerability have not been well documented in South African protected areas. This study identifies the landscape use and distribution of the roan as well as habitat and forage suitability changes to help inform management decisions for the conservation of roan. We used fine- and broad-scale data from Mokala National Park, South Africa that includes roan occurrence data, vegetation condition indices, vegetation (structure and plant species composition), elevation and temperature differences, and precipitation strata to construct a suitability framework using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) and Random Forest statistical package. In Mokala National Park, roan occurred in the Schmidtia pappophoroides–Vachellia erioloba sparse woodland, Senegalia mellifera–Vachellia erioloba closed woodland, Senegalia mellifera–Vachellia tortilis open shrubland, Vachellia erioloba–V. tortilis closed woodland and Rhigozum obovatum–Senegalia mellifera open shrubland. The veld (vegetation) condition index (VCI) improved from 2019 (VCI < 50%) to 2021 (VCI > 60%), with the proportion of palatable grass species (Schmidtia pappophoroides and Eragrostis lehmanniana) also increasing. This study identified four key climatic conditions affecting roan distribution, namely annual mean daily temperature range, temperature seasonality, minimum temperatures of the coldest month, and precipitation of the wettest month. These results suggest that the conservation of roan antelope should consider these key variables that affect their survival in preferred habitats and foraging areas in anticipation of changing ecological conditions.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Quercus oxyphylla in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Global climate changes are expected to profoundly shape species distribution. Quercus oxyphylla, a valuable evergreen broad-leaved tree species, is rigorously conserved and managed in China owing to its substantial scientific, economic, and ecological value. However, the impact of projected climate change on its future distribution and potential climatic drivers remains unclear. Here, a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to explore the distribution of Q. oxyphylla in China under current conditions and three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. We optimized the model using the ‘ENMeval’ package to obtain the best parameter combination (RM = 1, FC = LQHPT), and multiple evaluation metrics (AUC ≥ 0.9; TSS ≥ 0.6; Kappa ≥ 0.75) verified the high accuracy of the model and the reliability of the prediction results. We found the following: (1) The potential distribution of Q. oxyphylla spans across 28 provinces in China under current climatic conditions, predominantly in southern regions, with Sichuan exhibiting the largest suitable area for survival. The total suitable habitat covers 244.98 × 104 km2, comprising highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats of 51.66 × 104 km2, 65.98 × 104 km2, and 127.34 × 104 km2, respectively. (2) Under future climate conditions, the overall geographical boundaries of Q. oxyphylla are predicted to remain similar to the present one, with an increase of 10.29% in the 2050s and 11.31% in the 2070s. In the 2050s, the total suitable habitats for Q. oxyphylla under the three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) might increase by 8.83%, 9.62%, and 12.42%, while in the 2070s they might increase by 10.39%, 17.21%, and 6.33%, respectively. (3) Moreover, the centroid of the suitable area is expected to migrate southwestward under the three scenarios in the future. (4) Annual precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range emerged as the main factors influencing the distribution of Q. oxyphylla, with contributions of 55.9%, 25.7%, and 13.5%, respectively. Our findings refined the spatial arrangement of Q. oxyphylla growth and revealed its climate resilience. This suggested that under climate change, Sichuan and Shaanxi are the optimal regions for cultivation and management, while appropriate conservation strategies should be formulated in Tibet and Hubei.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Future Distribution of Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, in China Based on the MaxEnt Model.

Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, belongs to the Coleoptera order, Staphylinidae family, and Paederus genus (Fabricius, 1775). It has a wide distribution and strong invasive and environmental adaptation capabilities. As a predatory natural enemy of agricultural and forestry pests, understanding its suitable habitat is crucial for the control of other pests. This study, for the first time, uses the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, combining known distribution information of P. fuscipes and climate environmental factors to predict the current and future suitable habitat distribution of this insect. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. fuscipes have been identified as mean diurnal range (mean of monthly (max temp-min temp)) (bio2), isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (*100) (bio3), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), temperature annual range (bio5-bio6) (bio7), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15). The highly suitable areas for P. fuscipes in China are mainly distributed in the hilly regions of Shandong, the North China Plain, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, with a total suitable area of 118.96 × 104 km2, accounting for 12.35% of China's total area. According to future climate change scenarios, it is predicted that the area of highly and lowly suitable regions will significantly decrease, while moderately suitable regions will increase (except for the 2090s, SSP2-4.5 scenario). These research findings provide important theoretical support for pest control and ecological conservation applications.

Patterns and processes underlying understory songbird communities in southern China

AbstractUnderstory bird communities, especially those comprising insectivores, are highly sensitive to forest loss and fragmentation. Currently, there is little knowledge regarding the large‐scale diversity patterns of understory bird communities, particularly in Eastern Asia. Consequently, we aimed to identify the distribution patterns of understory birds in southern China and the factors underlying these patterns. We analysed the diversity distribution patterns of taxonomic and functional α and β diversity for understory Passeriformes birds in southern China utilising cluster and ordination analyses. Subsequently, we analysed the effects of geographic distance, annual mean temperature, annual temperature range, annual mean precipitation, and annual precipitation range on diversity distribution patterns. In total, 9282 individuals belonging to 11 orders, 48 families, and 297 species were captured over 98,544 net hours, with Alcippeidae being the most abundant family in southern China. The understory bird communities of the 25 sites were categorised into six sub‐regions of the Oriental Realm (Indo‐Malayan Realm). The pattern in the distribution of taxonomic and functional β‐diversity of understory birds in southern China was consistent with zoogeographical regionalisation. Three distinct geographical groups were identified: Group 1 was located in the Min‐Guang Coast and Hainan sub‐regions; Group 2 was located in the East Hilly Plain, Southwest Mountains, and Western Mountains and Plateaus sub‐regions; and Group 3 was located in the Southern Yunnan Mountain subregion. The most critical factors related to the distribution patterns of β‐diversity were geographical distance, annual mean temperature, and annual temperature range. Our results showed that the understory bird communities of the Southwest Mountain, East Hilly Plain, and Western Mountains, and Plateaus sub‐regions were similar, as were those of the Min‐Guang Coast and Hainan sub‐regions. Our results underscore the joint roles of distance, temperature, and historical evolution in understory bird communities.

Predicting the potential distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus and its host Pinus massoniana in China under climate change conditions

IntroductionDendrolimus punctatus, a major pest endemic to the native Pinus massoniana forests in China, displays major outbreak characteristics and causes severe destructiveness. In the context of global climate change, this study aims to investigate the effects of climatic variations on the distribution of D. punctatus and its host, P. massoniana. MethodsWe predict their potential suitable distribution areas in the future, thereby offering a theoretical basis for monitoring and controlling D. punctatus, as well as conserving P. massoniana forest resources. By utilizing existing distribution data on D. punctatus and P. massoniana, coupled with relevant climatic variables, this study employs an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for predictions. With feature combinations set as linear and product (LP) and the regularization multiplier at 0.1, the model strikes an optimal balance between complexity and accuracy.ResultsThe results indicate that the primary climatic factors influencing the distribution of D. punctatus and P. massoniana include the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. Under the influence of climate change, the distribution areas of P. massoniana and its pests exhibit a high degree of similarity, primarily concentrated in the region south of the Qinling−Huaihe line in China. In various climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for these two species may expand to varying degrees, exhibiting a tendency to shift toward higher latitude regions. Particularly under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), D. punctatus is projected to expand northwards at the fastest rate. DiscussionBy 2050, its migration direction is expected to closely align with that of P. massoniana, indicating that the pine forests will continue to be affected by the pest. These findings provide crucial empirical references for region-specific prevention of D. punctatus infestations and for the rational utilization and management of P. massoniana resources.

Interpreting life-history traits, seasonal cycles, and coastal climate from an intertidal mussel species: Insights from 9000 years of synthesized stable isotope data.

Understanding past coastal variability is valuable for contextualizing modern changes in coastal settings, yet existing Holocene paleoceanographic records for the North American Pacific Coast commonly originate from offshore marine sediments and may not represent the dynamic coastal environment. A potential archive of eastern Pacific Coast environmental variability is the intertidal mussel species Mytilus californianus. Archaeologists have collected copious stable isotopic (δ18O and δ13C) data from M. californianus shells to study human history at California's Channel Islands. When analyzed together, these isotopic data provide windows into 9000 years of Holocene isotopic variability and M. californianus life history. Here we synthesize over 6000 δ18O and δ13C data points from 13 published studies to investigate M. californianus shell isotopic variability across ontogenetic, geographic, seasonal, and millennial scales. Our analyses show that M. californianus may grow and record environmental information more irregularly than expected due to the competing influences of calcification, ontogeny, metabolism, and habitat. Stable isotope profiles with five or more subsamples per shell recorded environmental information ranging from seasonal to millennial scales, depending on the number of shells analyzed and the resolution of isotopic subsampling. Individual shell profiles contained seasonal cycles and an accurate inferred annual temperature range of ~ 5°C, although ontogenetic growth reduction obscured seasonal signals as organisms aged. Collectively, the mussel shell record reflected millennial-scale climate variability and an overall 0.52‰ depletion in δ18Oshell from 8800 BP to the present. The archive also revealed local-scale oceanographic variability in the form of a warmer coastal mainland δ18Oshell signal (-0.32‰) compared to a cooler offshore islands δ18Oshell signal (0.33‰). While M. californianus is a promising coastal archive, we emphasize the need for high-resolution subsampling from multiple individuals to disentangle impacts of calcification, metabolism, ontogeny, and habitat and more accurately infer environmental and biological patterns recorded by an intertidal species.

Predictive ecological niche model for Cinnamomumparthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. (Lauraceae) from Last Glacial Maximum to future in Vietnam.

Cinnamomumparthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. is a tree in genus Cinnamomum that has been facing global threats due to forest degradation and habitat fragmentation. Many recent studies aim to describe habitats and assess population and species genetic diversity for species conservation by expanding afforestation models for this species. Understanding their current and future potential distribution plays a major role in guiding conservation efforts. Using five modern machine-learning algorithms available on Google Earth Engine helped us evaluate suitable habitats for the species. The results revealed that Random Forest (RF) had the highest accuracy for model comparison, outperforming Support Vector Machine (SVM), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The results also showed that the extremely suitable ecological areas for the species are mostly distributed in northern Vietnam, followed by the North Central Coast and the Central Highlands. Elevation, Temperature Annual Range and Mean Diurnal Range were the three most important parameters affecting the potential distribution of C.parthenoxylon. Evaluation of the impact of climate on its distribution under different climate scenarios in the past (Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene), in the present (Worldclim) and in the future (using four climate change scenarios: ACCESS, MIROC6, EC-Earth3-Veg and MRI-ESM2-0) revealed that of C.parthenoxylon would likely expand to the northeast, while a large area of central Vietnam will gradually lose its adaptive capacity by 2100.

Effects of Environment Change Scenarios on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in China

Changes in climate and environmental conditions have aggravated the severity and unpredictability of plant survival and growth. Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. is an economically important timber tree. Exploring its potential distribution and dynamic changes and identifying the leading environmental variables affecting it will help to adjust the planting range reasonably according to the habits and climate change, thus contributing to its survival and growth. Based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS tool, climate, soil, terrain, human activities, variable environment layers, and 395 C. lanceolata distribution points were used to simulate and analyze the geographical distribution characteristics of C. lanceolata in the current and future periods (the 2050s and 2070s) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. The results showed that C. lanceolata was suitable to grow in a subtropical monsoon climate with warm, humid, abundant rainfall and a relatively gentle topography. Additionally, using percent contribution, permutation importance, and the knife-cutting test, we noted that the annual precipitation (Bio12), human activities (Hfp), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), annual temperature range (Bio7), and elevation were the leading environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of C. lanceolata. Among them, it should be noted that the impact of human activities was negatively correlated with suitable habitat areas of C. lanceolata and led to the degeneration of suitable habitats and fragmentized distribution. In addition, predictions have shown that the areas of habitats under other scenarios will be characterized by an increasing and then decreasing trend by the 2050s and 2070s, except for the RCP2.6 scenario, under which the suitable habitats area of C. lanceolata will increase continuously. The core distributional shifts showed that the suitable habitats of C. lanceolata will gradually shift and migrate to high-latitude areas due to global warming. This study focused on the characteristics of suitable habitats of C. lanceolata under different climatic scenarios using more environmental factors and scenarios than before, aiming to provide a theoretical basis and guidance for the management and utilization of forest resources, the planning of suitable planting areas, and germplasm protection.

Redistribution of Qiongzhuea tumidinoda in Southwest China under Climate Change: A Study from 1987 to 2012

Qiongzhuea tumidinoda stands out as an endemic bamboo species of significant conservation importance in Southwest China, particularly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It holds a pivotal role in poverty alleviation through the commercialization of its wood and bamboo shoots. However, the suitable area of this species is undergoing rapid changes due to climate change, resulting in species redistribution and potential losses for bamboo farmers. We utilized 209 presence records and 25 environmental variables from 1987 to 2012 to predict the potentially suitable habitats for Q. tumidinoda using MaxEnt (version 3.4.1), ArcGIS (version 10.8.2), and R (4.3.3). We rigorously screened the recorded data for reliability and accuracy through expert consultations and observer interviews. We performed pre-processing to select the variables with high contributions for modeling, and 11 variables were selected for the final modeling. Our findings reveal that the top three most influential variables associated with Q. tumidinoda’s distribution were the mean monthly potential evapotranspiration (Pet), annual range of air temperatures (Bio7), and mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), and the rates of contributions from 1987 to 2012 were 4.8333, 3.5833, and 1.7000. There was a southeastward shift and an elevation increase in the potentially suitable habitats for Q. tumidinoda. The area of potentially suitable habitats in the study region exhibited fluctuating growth, expanding from 3063.42 km2 to 7054.38 km2. The mean monthly potential evapotranspiration (Pet) emerged as a critical determinant shaping the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Q. tumidinoda. Our study sheds light on the response of Q. tumidinoda to climate change, offering valuable insights for the development and management of plantation industries associated with this species. In the future, to enhance prediction accuracy, researchers could equally consider both organic and inorganic environmental variables. For better preservation of environment and development, Q. tumidinoda could be introduced into nature restoration projects in areas with a suitable habitat or as a commodity that participates in forest carbon sink trading.

Multi-Model Analysis to Predict the Potential Suitable Habitat for Quercus oblongata D. Don (Fagaceae) in the Western Himalayan Region

Quercus oblongata D. Don is an economically and ecologically important tree species. It is distributed in the western Himalayan region of India as well as Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The present study explored the potential distribution and habitat suitability of Q. oblongata using ensemble modeling. Eleven environmental variables (eight bioclimatic and three topographic), and 121 occurrence records were used in the analysis. Four algorithms: Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Random Forest (RF), and Maximum Entropy (Max Ent) were used to build the ensemble model for potential suitable habitat of Q. oblongata. To evaluate the model performance, AUC and TSS metrics were used, which showed high AUC (>0.94) and TSS (>0.86) metrics for all the models. The environmental variables that displayed high contribution in the prediction were temperature annual range (bio7, 48.5%), precipitation of wettest period (bio13 ; 41%), and elevation (elev ; 40%). The total suitable area was 22634 km2, including the least (12546 km2), moderate (7935 km2), and highly (2153 km2) suitable areas. Habitat suitability of Q. oblongata is predicted in most of the regions of Nainital, Almora, central Tehri Garhwal, eastern Mussoorie and Chakrata region of Dehradun District of Uttarakhand. A sizeable wide patch was found in Southern Chamba with Northern Kangra District, including the northern region of Mandi District of Himachal Pradesh. The predicted suitable habitat can be used for future exploration for the study of genetic diversity and conservation purposes.

Was there a low-altitude Younger Dryas Stadial glacier in south-east Wales? Re-interpretation of landforms and palaeo-climatic inferences

A glacial origin for cirque-like hollows cut into the western escarpment of the Usk valley near Abergavenny, South Wales has become widely accepted. Associated supposed extensive moraine ‘festoons’ have been depicted merging and contemporaneous with Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) deposits formed by ice occupying the adjacent Usk valley. We re-interpret these festoons as the product mainly of rock slope failures (RSFs) emanating from the hollows. A cirque glacier origin is preferred to account for a compact double-ridge feature in one of the hollows. The equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the reconstructed glacier (357 m) is >60 m lower than all similarly small, presumed Younger Dryas Stadial (YDS; c., 12.9–11.7 ka) glaciers elsewhere in South Wales. To test whether this glacier nevertheless might date from the YDS, we apply three approaches to reconstruct annual palaeo-precipitation amounts at the ELA, two based on relationships between accumulation and ablation for modern glaciers and the third on a simple degree-day model (DDM) using likely climatic characteristics for this event. The DDM can be tailored to represent the recognised large-amplitude YDS annual temperature range rather than the much smaller one experienced by modern glaciers, making it our preferred approach. Although conditions along the Usk valley escarpment during the LGM would have been well suited to cirque glacier formation, the DDM approach, using the large-amplitude annual temperature ranges, suggests that a YDS age might also be possible. The results have implications for re-assessing the likely ages of some former small glaciers in South Wales.

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change.

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change.

Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana's geographical distribution, including the driest month's precipitation, the coldest month's minimum temperature, the wettest month's precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 104 km2 in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.

Variation in Ventral Coloration Pattern and Aposematism in Tropical Warty Newts.

Aposematic coloration plays a crucial role in animal defense, and it is shaped by a complex interplay of factors such as physiological limitations and sexual and natural selection. Warty newts within the genus Paramesotriton exhibit significant variation in ventral coloration. In this study, we quantified the percentage of red ventral area to investigate aposematic ventral coloration in Paramesotriton deloustali and P. guangxiensis across eight populations in northern Vietnam. To assess the interaction between predators and the aposematic signals, we conducted experiments employing three types of clay replicas of newts: dorsal, red ventral, and black ventral models. Our findings revealed a significant variation in the red ventral area among different populations. Additionally, a significant correlation was detected between the red ventral area of the newt and the annual temperature range. In clay model experiments, a significant difference in predator attack rates was observed between dorsal and ventral clay models. Interestingly, there was no significant difference in attack rates between red and black ventral types. Our study suggested that the variation in the red ventral area of warty newts is probably influenced by multiple factors, including genetic constraints, sex, ambient environment, and diet. Furthermore, our results supported the effectiveness of displaying aposematic coloration as an antipredator defense mechanism in warty newts. However, variations in body size and the pressure of mammal predation might not play a significant role in determining aposematic coloration.

Functional convergence underground? The scale‐dependency of community assembly processes in European cave spiders

AbstractAimQuantifying the relative contribution of environmental filtering versus limiting similarity in shaping communities is challenging because these processes often act simultaneously and their effect is scale‐dependent. Focusing on caves, island‐like natural laboratories with limited environmental variability and species diversity, we tested: (i) the relative contribution of environmental filtering and limiting similarity in determining community assembly in caves; (ii) how the relative contribution of these driving forces changes along environmental gradients.LocationEurope.Time periodPresent.Major taxa studiedSubterranean spiders.MethodsWe used data on distribution and traits for European cave spiders (n = 475 communities). We estimated the trait space of each community using probabilistic hypervolumes, and obtained estimations of functional richness independent of the species richness of each community via null modelling. We model functional diversity change along environmental gradients using generalized dissimilarity modelling.ResultsSixty‐three percent of subterranean spider communities exhibited a prevalence of trait underdispersion. However, most communities displayed trait dispersion that did not depart significantly from random, suggesting that environmental filtering and limiting similarity were both exerting equally weak or strong, yet opposing influences. Overdispersed communities were primarily concentrated in southern latitudes, particularly in the Dinaric karst, where there is greater subterranean habitat availability. Pairwise comparisons of functional richness across caves revealed these effects to be strongly scale‐dependent, largely varying across gradients of cave development, elevation, precipitation, entrance size and annual temperature range. Conversely, geographical distance weakly affected trait composition, suggesting convergence in traits among communities that are far apart.Main conclusionsEven systems with stringent environmental conditions maintain the potential for trait differentiation, especially in areas of greater habitat availability. Yet, the relative influence of environmental filtering and limiting similarity change with scale, along clear environmental gradients. The interplay of these processes may explain the assembly of species‐poor subterranean communities displaying high functional specialization.