Telephone Subscription Research Articles

RobertMacDougall, The people's network: the political economy of the telephone in the gilded age (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2014. Pp. 344. 11 figs. ISBN 9780812245691 Hbk. £36/$55)

Robert MacDougall, The people’s network: the political economy of the telephone in the gilded age (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2014. Pp. 344. 11 figs. 9780812245691. Hbk £36/$55) The US telephone system was a monopoly of the Bell company in the late nineteenth century; then it briefly was not; and then it was a monopoly again in all but name until the courts forced the breakup in 1984 of what was now AT&T. For about twenty years following the end of Bell’s key patents in 1894, thousands of ‘independent’ and fiercely competitive telephone service providers emerged. By the mid- 1900s Bell had only half of American subscribers and half the cities had at least two competing telephone companies. Within about a decade, however, oligopolistic consolidation under the Bell umbrella was well under way. Robert MacDougall’s The People’s Network recounts the story of the independent era. Although it is not the unknown or forgotten story MacDougall claims – there are earlier general histories and many local ones and there is a Museum of Independent Telephony in Abilene, Kansas – MacDougall’s is the most thorough and deeply researched account. MacDougall credits the independents with democratizing telephone subscription in the US by forcing the Bell companies, most of which sought only business and wealthy residential subscribers, to slash prices and court the masses. MacDougall draws on detailed archival materials, uses the Canadian case at points to highlight the special dynamics of the US experience, and effectively presents case studies of Muncie, Indiana (site of the famed Middletown sociological studies in the 1920s and ‘30s) and of Kingston, Ontario, to same end. He describes the internal evolution of the Bell system, focusing in particular on its takeover in 1879 from the A.G. Bell family by Boston financiers who fixedly believed that telephony was only for elites. He documents the town-by-town battles of local independent providers with Bell – the US government being essentially a bystander until the 1910s – and the national debates in Canada about federal policy. MacDougall’s explanation for the rise and fall of independent telephony in the US presents a struggle between alternative business visions played out in the hard-nosed politics of American towns and small cities. To clear space for his analysis, MacDougall describes previous authors of telephone history – this reviewer included – as naifs misled by decades of Bell public relations. (Much of the last chapter is devoted to Bell’s efforts to manage its historical image.) The mid-twentieth-century telephone system in America was not, MacDougall argues, the inevitable result of a ‘natural monopoly’ nor of consumer demand as some suggest, but the result of political struggles. For a brief period, the vision of a ‘people’s telephone’ flourished in the US, especially in the Midwest region, because local municipalities, which had the power to permit and regulate telephone lines within their borders, fought the Bell companies. They, unlike most Canadian cities, welcomed local entrepreneurs who would compete with Bell. The new enterprises attracted local customers by providing much lower and flat rates, connecting to nearby rural telephone cooperatives, and innovating. Independent, local telephony, argues MacDougall, could have lasted were it not for national politics. The US government undercut the independents by allowing Bell to buy them out or to subvert them. By World War I (when the US government temporarily nationalized the telephone system, hiring on Bell to run it), the independents were doomed and the ‘local, egalitarian’ moment was lost. Some readers may recognize this analysis as an instance of the ‘organizational’ theory of American history in which nineteenth-century local democracy is overridden by twentieth-century institutions of mass society.

Mobile Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from China

We contribute to the role of telecommunications infrastructure on economic growth in three ways. We separately examine fixed-line and mobile telephone subscription levels. We compare an early build out period to a later more mature industry phase. And we develop a method designed to address endogeneity of telecommunications with respect to growth. We find that mobile services contribute much more to growth but that the effect diminishes over time as the markets for these services become more mature.

Risks for Central Nervous System Diseases among Mobile Phone Subscribers: A Danish Retrospective Cohort Study

The aim of this study was to investigate a possible link between cellular telephone use and risks for various diseases of the central nervous system (CNS). We conducted a large nationwide cohort study of 420 095 persons whose first cellular telephone subscription was between 1982 and 1995, who were followed through 2003 for hospital contacts for a diagnosis of a CNS disorder. Standardized hospitalization ratios (SHRs) were derived by dividing the number of hospital contacts in the cohort by the number expected in the Danish population. The SHRs were increased by 10–20% for migraine and vertigo. No associations were seen for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, multiple sclerosis or epilepsy in women. SHRs decreased by 30–40% were observed for dementia (Alzheimer disease, vascular and other dementia), Parkinson disease and epilepsy among men. In analyses restricted to subscribers of 10 years or more, the SHRs remained similarly increased for migraine and vertigo and similarly decreased for Alzheimer disease and other dementia and epilepsy (in men); the other SHRs were close to unity. In conclusion, the excesses of migraine and vertigo observed in this first study on cellular telephones and CNS disease deserve further attention. An interplay of a healthy cohort effect and reversed causation bias due to prodromal symptoms impedes detection of a possible association with dementia and Parkinson disease. Identification of the factors that result in a healthy cohort might be of interest for elucidation of the etiology of these diseases.

Modelling waste generation by the telecom sector in Nigeria: the grey side of the impressive outing

Since the introduction of digital mobile technology into Nigeria in 2001, there has been a phenomenal improvement in mobile subscription, service delivery and in the overall penetration of mobile telecommunication into rural areas in the country. For instance, the country's teledensity increased from less than 1% in 2001 to about 25% in 2006 - an increase of more than 3000%. The aim of this paper is to predict improvements in telephone penetration and waste generation by the Nigerian telecommunications sector. This was achieved by regression analysis of available data on telephone subscription in the country. Our estimations indicate that an average of 3 million phones will be retired annually in the country. Considering an economic phone life of 4 years, the over 32 million phones, (weight estimated at about 3200 tons) in use in 2006 would be at their end-of-life (EoL) by 2010. This volume of waste may contain up to 1800 tons of waste plastics, 15 tons of lead and 124 tons of copper. Our derived regression equation also indicates that mobile phone penetration in the country would be about 40% by 2010. This implies that over 55 million mobile phones would be in use by 2010. The grey side of this impressive statistics is that waste generation by the telecommunications sector will also follow this trend. This paper also highlights the need to introduce a framework for the effective management of waste from this sector considering the toxicity of some of the components of mobile phones and accessories and the prevailing inappropriate disposal practices for such potentially 'toxic' materials.

Cellular Telephone Use and Cancer Risk: Update of a Nationwide Danish Cohort

The widespread use of cellular telephones has heightened concerns about possible adverse health effects. The objective of this study was to investigate cancer risk among Danish cellular telephone users who were followed for up to 21 years. This study is an extended follow-up of a large nationwide cohort of 420,095 persons whose first cellular telephone subscription was between 1982 and 1995 and who were followed through 2002 for cancer incidence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated by dividing the number of observed cancer cases in the cohort by the number expected in the Danish population. A total of 14,249 cancers were observed (SIR = 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93 to 0.97) for men and women combined. Cellular telephone use was not associated with increased risk for brain tumors (SIR = 0.97), acoustic neuromas (SIR = 0.73), salivary gland tumors (SIR = 0.77), eye tumors (SIR = 0.96), or leukemias (SIR = 1.00). Among long-term subscribers of 10 years or more, cellular telephone use was not associated with increased risk for brain tumors (SIR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.44 to 0.95), and there was no trend with time since first subscription. The risk for smoking-related cancers was decreased among men (SIR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.86 to 0.91) but increased among women (SIR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.21). Additional data on income and smoking prevalence, primarily among men, indicated that cellular telephone users who started subscriptions in the mid-1980s appeared to have a higher income and to smoke less than the general population. We found no evidence for an association between tumor risk and cellular telephone use among either short-term or long-term users. Moreover, the narrow confidence intervals provide evidence that any large association of risk of cancer and cellular telephone use can be excluded.

How does the entry of new firms change demand? An empirical estimation for a Thai telecommunications company

This paper uses cointegration, error correction mechanism (ECM) and causal effect techniques to estimate the demand for the services supplied by the Telephone Organization of Thailand (TOT). The entry of new competitors reduces access demand but increases usage demand in both long-run and short-run. Access and usage externalities exist and the former has stronger effects than the latter. It is also found that consumers initially overreact to increases in income and telephone subscription but they do not overreact to services price changes. Causality examination shows that the number of telephone subscribers and income cause demands for access and usage, vice verse.

Optional telephone subscription scheme: a unique experiment in Korea

In 1998, Korea adopted an optional telephone subscription scheme (OTSS), under which new or existing subscribers could choose either the old or the new subscription plan. The main difference between these two plans is the ratio of the connection fee to the monthly charge. This paper attempts to investigate several policy questions related to the change of the telephone subscription scheme. First, the paper examines the relationship between the telephone subscription scheme and competition in telecommunications, especially local competition. Secondly, we conduct international comparisons of the connection fee and the monthly charge to examine economically efficient fixed rate structures. Finally, after describing how the price levels for the new plan are determined, a consumer choice model is set up in order to predict the number of subscribers who will buy the new plan. The experience of the OTSS in Korea provides various implications for telecommunications policy issues in many countries.

Cross-sectional analysis of residential telephone subscription in Canada using 1994 data

This paper presents the results of a cross-sectional analysis of residential telephone subscription in Canada using a sample of 37,000 households. A generalized extreme value model is used to relate the probability of subscription to zero, one, or more than one line to socio-economic and demographic factors, including price. The model results corroborate previous results which show that access to residential telephone service in Canada is highly price inelastic. At 1994 prices and predicted subscription rates it is found that the demand for an additional line is much more price responsive than the demand for access, but is also price inelastic.

Cross-sectional analysis of residential telephone subscription in Canada

This paper provides an analysis which identifies and quantifies, through a cross-sectional household level logit model, the relationship between Canadian residential telephone subscription, local access prices, and socio-economic and demographic attributes. The model is estimated using a sample of 34,000 Canadian households. The model results show that the probability of subscribing to telephone service is related to a number of socio-economic and demographic factors. In addition, the model results indicate that telephone subscription in Canada is highly price inelastic. Telephone subscription price elasticities are found to vary inversely with the level of household income, the age of the household head and the size of the area of residence.

The use of telephones in Sri Lanka

This article reports some findings from a survey designed to investigate the use of telephones in Sri Lanka, perceptions of the socioeconomic impact of telecommunications, and attitudes toward telecommunications policy. Although it was found that telephone subscription had significant impacts on social relations, social status and economic activity, the participants in the survey did not perceive any urgent need for investment in telecommunications.

Use of surnames in ethnic research: The case of Kims in the Korean-American population

This paper introduces a method for estimating the size of the Korean American population in communities in the United States. Since about 22 percent of Korean Americans have the surname Kim and the telephone subscription/listing rate for Korean Americans is extremely high, a fairly simple equation for such estimation can be constructed. The number of Kims listed in the published telephone directory for a community, the mean size of the Kim households, the residence telephone subscription/listing rate, and the proportion of Kims are the factors included in the equation. A specific value for each of the factors has been derived from various "unobtrusive" and nongovernmental sources. Only insignificant differences have been found between estimates made using this method and the enumeration figures from the 1980 census for the Korean American population in the New York metropolitan area and Los Angeles and Orange counties. It appears that the equation is effective in estimating the size of the Korean American population in a community and could be a useful instrument in evaluating the accuracy of the 1980 Census enumeration of Korean Americans. The paper also describes the potential utility of Kims listed in published telephone directories as a sampling frame of Korean Americans in the United States. The ideas and procedures presented here can be extended to other ethnic populations with unique surnames, such as Nguyen for the Vietnamese American population and those starting with "Yama" . . . for the Japanese American population.