Technology Foresight Research Articles

Análisis metodológico de los estudios prospectivos que exploran el futuro de la bioeconomía

La innovación basada en ciencias de la vida aspira a hacer frente a las metas ambientales y de desarrollo. En este contexto nos proponemos caracterizar las metodologías para explorar el futuro de la bioeconomía. En virtud de que la prospectiva tecnológica incorpora diversas herramientas para hacer frente a la complejidad tecnológica y social, nos interesa identificar cuáles han predominado en la investigación académica y cómo se han complementado para explorar el desarrollo del sector y diseñar escenarios de futuro. Método: Condujimos una investigación documental, basada en revistas académicas indizadas en Scopus. Emprendimos un análisis bibliométrico sobre una base de 31 artículos de investigación publicados entre 2015 y 2019. Continuamos con una revisión de la literatura con el propósito de codificar variables sobre el alcance y la metodología, a fin de estar en condiciones de comparar nuestros resultados con las mejores prácticas desprendidas del Diamante de Popper. Clasificamos las herramientas de prospectiva encontradas conforme a su dependencia de fuentes de “evidencia”, “experticia”, “interacción social” y “creatividad”. Finalmente, realizamos un análisis de la red de complementariedades entre enfoques y herramientas en el programa Gephi 0.9.2. Resultados: Con relación al alcance, predominó la exploración de futuros con escenarios hacia el 2030 (33%) y 2050 (5%), con preferencia por la escala nacional (43%), por encima de la internacional (38%) y subnacional (20%), en temas relacionados con la factibilidad ambiental y económica de la energía y la biomasa, y en menor medida sobre el análisis de la bioeconomía en su conjunto. En términos de enfoque metodológico, prevalecieron las herramientas basadas en evidencia cuantitativa (71%) y en la opinión de expertos (21%); marginando la incorporación de la opinión de diversos actores sociales (8%) y el uso de herramientas basadas en creatividad (0%). De un total de 33 herramientas de uso común en la práctica prospectiva, se emplearon 11, optando por la incorporación de 1 a 2 por ejercicio (1.3 en promedio). Conclusión: Nuestros hallazgos se distinguen de estudios previos sobre ejercicios prospectivos que habían documentado la escasa relevancia del sector de estudio en la elección de las herramientas y mostraban la prevalencia de herramientas cualitativas. Por otro lado, corroboran otros estudios que han comenzado a documentar el surgimiento de nuevos campos de aplicación y nuevas combinaciones de herramientas. Para el sector de bioeconomía, consideramos que la cantidad de enfoques, y el nivel de combinación de herramientas empleadas, resulta limitado para explorar la transición hacia un sistema económico sustentable apoyado por la innovación en ciencias de la vida. El análisis de tendencias tecnológicas necesita retroalimentarse de la opinión de actores sociales clave e incorporar elementos creativos en correspondencia con la multiplicidad de factores que explican la adopción de nuevas tecnologías por amplios colectivos sociales.

A global race to dominate the internet of things: how China caught up

PurposeIn the ongoing Industry 4.0 era, the internet of things (IoT) has become a global race in the current information technology climate. However, little is understood about the pattern of the global competitive arena or its players’ set up strategy. This paper aims to attempt to compare the cross-country development of the IoT industry. In particular, from the lens of industrial policies, this paper highlights how China, as a latecomer, gains momentum to emerge victorious as a leader in this global race.Design/methodology/approachBased on five dimensions, namely, foundation, trajectory, characteristic, application and social impacts, this paper presents the evolution of the IoT industry in the USA, European Union, Japan, South Korea and China. From the lens of windows of opportunities, this paper analyzes how China seized the opportunity with the emerging technology, thereby, enabling it to create a competitive advantage.FindingsThis paper finds that China’s IoT industry takes a distinct trajectory, where scientific institutions, enterprises and governmental policies collaborate in unison, during which the first phase was when scientific research institutions introduced the conceptual new technology from developed countries. This technological foresight allowed for the identification and realization of critical technologies, strategic fields and technological trends. The second phase was the continuous dissatisfaction of capabilities of critical technologies, which creates disruptions that significantly altered the environment of technological competition.Originality/valueThis paper provides a comprehensive and comparative review of IoT industries in a global context, with the critical and influential role of the windows of opportunities on those enterprises lagging behind the technological wave.

Technological foresight as support for the planning of research and development centers: the case of EI-UNAM

PurposeThis study aims to present a method to carry out technological foresight exercises in university technological research and development centers (TRDCs). The results support the organizational planning process.Design/methodology/approachThe authors review the literature on the frameworks of foresight. The authors propose the use of quantitative (bibliometrics) and qualitative (expert meeting, Delphi) techniques. The authors apply this method to each research topic of interest of the TRDCs.FindingsThe application of the method to a research topic allows us to analyze the relevant knowledge areas for the development of that topic and its global trend. For each area, the authors identify the specific lines of research with the greatest growth and relevance. Considering these lines, the authors make a diagnosis of the TRDC situation regarding how to provide knowledge to decision-makers.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper reviews the results of the application in the Engineering Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico and in the research topic “Seismic risks in civil engineering.” It is necessary to adjust the application of the method in other TRDCs to the conditions of the organization and to the development achieved by the TRDCs in the analyzed research topic.Originality/valueThere is no detailed literature on technological foresight exercises in university TRDCs that support the planning process of the organization. The method represents a proposal to establish priority research topics and specific research lines in research institutes, particularly universities. The authors present the application in a university TRDCs in Mexico.

Research Design for an Integrated Artificial Intelligence Ethical Framework

Artificial Intelligence (AI) regulatory and other governance mechanisms have only started to emerge and consolidate. Therefore, AI regulation, legislation, frameworks, and guidelines are presently fragmented, isolated, or co-exist in an opaque space between national governments, international bodies, corporations, practitioners, think-tanks, and civil society organisations. This article proposes a research design set up to address this problem by directly collaborating with targeted actors to identify principles for AI that are trustworthy, accountable, safe, fair, non-discriminatory, and which puts human rights and the social good at the centre of its approach. It proposes 21 interlinked substudies, focusing on the ethical judgements, empirical statements, and practical guidelines, which manufacture ethicopolitical visions and AI policies across four domains: seven tech corporations, seven governments, seven civil society actors, together with the analysis of online public debates. The proposed research design uses multiple research techniques: extensive mapping and studies of AI ethics policy documents and 120 interviews of key individuals, as well as assorted analyses of public feedback discussion loops on AI, employing digital methods on online communities specialising in AI debates. It considers novel conceptual interactions communicated across the globe, expands the regulatory, ethics, and technological foresight, both at the individual level (autonomy, identity, dignity, privacy, and data protection) and the societal level (fairness/equality, responsibility, accountability and transparency, surveillance/datafication, democracy and trust, collective humanity and the common good). By producing an innovative, intercontinental, multidisciplinary research design for an Ethical AI Standard, this article offers a concrete plan to search for the Holy Grail of Artificial Intelligence: Its Ethics.

37319 A Technology Evaluation Framework for Rural Health Research

ABSTRACT IMPACT: As technologies emerge at an increasing pace, the product developed through this work will guide rural health experts through a repeatable method of technology evaluation and selection at a faster and more reliable pace than otherwise possible. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: New technologies are emerging at an increasing pace, which leads to the question: ‘how is one to select a specific technology for their research?’ In response, this project endeavored to develop a technology evaluation and selection framework for rural health researchers. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The approach selected for this project included three phases. Phase one was to gain an understanding of rural health challenges, health-related emerging technologies, and rural health resources. Phase two involved using the information from phase one to select and adapt a set of technology foresight and forecasting analysis tools to be compiled within a framework. The third phase of the project was to prototype the framework, obtain researcher feedback, and iteratively implement improvements. Recommendations for the future of the framework were also developed during the third phase. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The resulting product is the ‘Rural Health: Evaluation and Selection of Technology (RHEST) Framework.’ The RHEST Framework is a guide made available to use to aid in technology selection during the development of a new rural health project. The framework guides researchers through various stages, including ideation, analysis, and decision. Technology analysis tools are introduced in each stage, with links to additional information. The guide also contains a resource catalog for quick information look-up to find data sources, funding opportunities, and expert connections. Quantitative and qualitative data captured indicate that the product would add value for rural health researchers. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: The initial version of the RHEST framework is limited in value because it is a static document and the primary audience are researchers. The value potential could improve considerably, however, if the framework were expanded to be a dynamic resource available to rural health care providers.

Impact assessment of Vision 2023 defense technology foresight

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide information about the long-term ex-post impacts of Vision 2023 technology foresight (TF) on the defense sector and to identify critical success factors (CSFs) of impactful foresight.Design/methodology/approachIn the present research, a theory-based evaluation approach was adopted with the logic-model of defense TF to identify the intended outcomes, impacts and leading mechanisms. The impact assessment framework developed by Johnston, R. (2012) was adopted to identify (un)intended impacts and possible measures.FindingsTF had some effects on technological developments, foresight capacity and capability and skills on the sector. The overall impact was assessed at the “some contribution” level with 2.9 out of 5.0 points. It contributed to the development of science technology and innovation (STI) policies and research and development programs, awareness-raising in STI, increase in cooperation between government-university-industry and the development of foresight culture. However, the impacts were more visible in the early years of TF. Additionally, country/sector-specific CSFs were identified. In consequence, it was proposed to measure the maturity of strategic technologies with technology readiness level as a tangible indicator.Originality/valueAccording to the authors, this is the first study to assess the long-term ex-post impact of TF in defense. An instrument was developed to assess TF’s contribution to impact measures. The constructs and weights of the instrument differentiated from the adopted framework/schema reflecting the national/sectoral context of TF. Additionally, the study revealed country/sector-specific CSFs and new tangible impact measures.

Smart agriculture – Urgent need of the day in developing countries

Smart agriculture is based primarily on three platforms, namely science, innovation and space technologies. These are considered as the three pioneer pillars of nation building. Space technologies play a vital role in improving soil quality, reducing the waste of water during irrigation and sharing agricultural information with farmers. With the help of terrestrial, aquatic, and aerial sensors, satellites and surveillance equipment, a large volume of geo-spatial data from diversifying sources is collected, analyzed, and utilized for smart farming and shielding of crops. The technology foresight will introduce innovations such as the use of drones in agriculture, precision gene processing in plants, epigenetic, big data and internet of things (IoT), utilizing efficiently all types of energy like smart wind and solar energy, artificial intelligence-based application of robotics, desalination technology in mega-scale and so on. Some of these innovations are already being used in developed nations. Agriculture plays an important role in developing economy so the use of digital farming in rural areas will be a boon for agriculture sector. By 2030, 85% of the world's population is expected to live in developing countries. In this context, data-driven technological development is urgently needed for developing countries to increase gross domestic product (GDP) and ensure food security for the population.

Strategic Technology Foresight in Organizations through Quality Management and Business Excellence Concepts: A Case Study

We are living in an era of accelerated change and uncertainties where disruption in all aspects of our modern lives is the norm. In such context, foresight supported by quality management systems and organizational excellence frameworks comes into prominence as strategic toolset to face these social and economic challenges in organizations and societies and ensure sustainability. Foresight has been widely used by organizations as a strategy to support leadership and decision makers in situations that involve big uncertainties towards the future. The present paper is a conceptual study in the sense it discusses the relationship between organization`s foresight capability and quality management and organization excellence approaches. Essentially, we will attempt to answer the fundamental research question: “To what extent quality management and organizational excellence approaches and models lead to enabling and building future foresight capability of modern organizations?” For that purpose, a survey questionnaire was developed based on literature review, and administered online to leadership of Saudi organizations national wide. Statistical analysis performed. The analysis showed that quality management and organization excellence frameworks implementation in Saudi organizations would be an enabler for successful foresight implementation. This led to pronounce that in order to achieve their strategic objectives in line with the national vision 2030, Saudi organizations should implement quality management systems such as ISO 9001:2015 and the national quality award (KAQA). It is believed that the paper opens a discussion between quality professionals and foresight experts on the potential link between quality management principals and foresight capability in modern organizations operating in an accelerated change environment and disruption.

Systemic imperatives of the integration of education, science and business

According to international experience, the coordinated activities of higher education institutions, science, including new innovative structures (such as technology parks, foresight centers, expert and futuristic communities) and business should be main resource for the formation of effective innovation-driven economy. The focus of integration of education, science and business is on an innovative-entrepreneurial university that contributes to the strengthening and optimization of education and market. The attitude towards the main productive force that is towards an individual of highly intellectual and highly productive labor is changing.The role of specialists of the new format in innovation-driven economy is significant and will constantly grow. The main growth vectors should be intensity of innovations, leading education (with focus on technological progress and innovations), student-centeredness and strategic partnership. Innovative modernization can affect not only the qualitative transformations of socio-economic development, but also destabilize the balance of the economy and contribute to the manifestation of instability. This requires strengthening the interaction between education, science and entrepreneurship through synergy. The mechanism for the formation of an innovative model for the development of higher education should represent relations and institutions that guarantee the transformation of knowledge into new technologies, form a favorable competitive economic environment that provides innovative activity and the development of a fundamentally new innovative production. A problem in the educational activities of universities is the need for the earliest possible development of new areas of broad training of specialists in the field of management of innovative processes and commercialization of technologies, coupled with an insufficient level of real opportunities and incentives.

Technology Foresight and Sustainable Innovation Development in the Complex Dynamical Systems View

Information and communication technologies (ICT) which are transforming most areas develop non-linearly. Failure to take into account the nonlinear principles of complex dynamic systems hinders development of balanced innovation strategies. Companies and governments lose the ability to effectively respond to “grand challenges”. The linear approach does not allow covering a wide range of critical areas simultaneously in the scope of Foresight projects, prevents from applying an interdisciplinary approach to developing innovation strategies, correct risks assessment, and making informed decisions. The paper proposes a solution: management based on “cyber-physical systems” (CPS) built on dynamic complexity and nonlinearity principles. Such systems not only integrate computing and physical action but are embedded in everyday environment; they are more than the sum of multiple intelligent computing devices. CPS transforms into collective social systems, integrate information, energy, and material flows, and adapt to physical processes. Cyber-physical systems can offer a sustainable information infrastructure which serves as a prerequisite for building up the innovation potential of a company, region, or country. They make it possible to analyse all stages of an innovation project from the technical and organisational points of view simultaneously, cover all possible social consequences and challenges, and identify unexpected promising developments. CPS have a decentralised structure which allows to solve complex problems and manage large and complex structures in real time, such as an energy grid, transport, smart city, healthcare, etc.

Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0

The main purpose of this publication is an attempt to treat phenomenon of uncertainty as the one of main research facility in future studies and not as the background for future research — by answering the following research question: “What is the methodical relation among the scope of the uncertainty phenomenon vs. levels of knowledge and types of the future in the foresight approach?”. The study uses the results of the analysis and criticism of the literature as the main research method. On this basis were performed deductive reasoning. Proposed by the author of the paper types of future and scope of uncertainty allowed to define the author’s scale of knowledge levels. This paper has attempted to draw together three methodological fields: uncertainty, foresight, and knowledge. Author analysed complex relations among above areas on the basis of their characteristic which are author’s extensions of existing concepts available in the literature. In the author’s opinion conclusions from the results presented in the article can be a valuable contribution to the development of the area of management in the area of future management. In management of complex systems (such as Industry 4.0), from the foresight methodological point of view, it seems relevant to determine which specific uncertainties can be managed by which classes of foresight methods, and which foresight methods by what level of knowledge, will be appropriate for the analysis of a specific types of future. According to the author, the results of research presented in the publication may be used in creating research methodology of technological foresight projects and as a complementary element of research devoted to the issues of development of modern technologies, which include Industry 4.0.

Plausible scenarios for microturbine technology development: case study of an Iranian national technological program

Purpose Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special technologies. The microturbine is a developed technology that is remarkable for its relatively high performance and ability to use several types of fuels. Microturbines are economically feasible because of the production of combined heat and power and small-scale applicability. This study aims to investigate microturbine technology development to support modern energy access in a developing country (i.e. Iran). Design/methodology/approach This paper presents a technology foresight methodology to create plausible futures of microturbine development in Iran when the country faces different driving forces and uncertainties. On other hand, the paper deals with a theoretical question: how to select appropriate foresight methodology? A procedure is proposed, which equipped the research team to select appropriate method combinations based on Popper’s diamond. Finally, the selected methodology includes defining focal issues environmental scanning and patent analysis aimed at developing five plausible scenarios for microturbine development future in Iran and creating shared visions among policymakers. Findings This paper proposed a series of scenarios on the path to developing microturbine technology. The scenario development logic in a participatory way contains a common four-quarter technique that attempts to depict scenarios based on two critical uncertainties inclusive energy price and technology obsolescence, which will shape the future. Also, a scenario is presented to describe a wild card that can disturb the desired futures. Such materials help decision-makers to policies under plausible conditions that guarantee a robust policy basket. Originality/value The originality of this paper can be studied based on two aspects, first, the methodology that provides a systematic method selections procedure in an emerging complex technology development program. Second, from the practical aspect, this paper is one of the very first attempts to manage the microturbine technology development program. Then, results are used to feed the policy-making process in Iran.

TOWARDS TECHNOLOGICAL AWARENESS AND WISDOM

This article aims to enhance technology foresight by contributing to technological awareness and wisdom. It is based on an understanding of the fundamental nature of technology, and requires an overarching view. This needs at least three constituents: (1) a universal definition of technology; (2) a central organising framework; and (3) a methodology for measuring technological advance at the national level. The article then addresses these constituents. It examines the status of each and projects what needs to be done.

자동차 산업 측면에서 통신기술 특화 미래기술 예측 프로세스 디자인을 위한 요구사항 분석 및 고찰

자동차 산업 측면에서 통신기술 특화 미래기술 예측 프로세스 디자인을 위한 요구사항 분석 및 고찰

READY, STEADY, DIGITAL?! How foresight activities do (NOT) affect individual technological frames for managerial SENSEMAKING

This qualitative study explores how managers use their individual technological frames for sensemaking during technology foresight activities. Although the positive effects of technology foresight activities are well documented, there is limited research, which analyzes the influence of foresight on managerial frames for sensemaking. We lack detailed descriptions how managers sensemaking processes are influenced, since most research studies do not analyze individual technological frames before, during, and after foresight activities are conducted. This study targets this gap by analyzing managerial frames for sensemaking at three different points in time. To do so, we conducted several technology foresight workshops with participants from the German construction sector. The collected data comprises 32 in-depth interviews, 12 group discussions, and complementary records from six companies, three organizations, and two universities. The findings show that managers apply and adapt their individual technological frames during foresight activities. Technological advantages are recognized, and the managers are able to create a detailed vision of their organization's future development. However, to our surprising, the managers returned to their initial technological frames after the workshop, because the daily business life and established routines did not allow to apply the adapted sensemaking mechanisms. The study's findings offer three contribution: First, we show that managers distinguish their sensemaking in perceived sensegiving and sensebreaking during foresight activities. Second, we describe the gravitating influence of a dominating organizational frame, which leads managers to ignore the results of foresight activities. Third, we question the long-term interrelations of foresight activities and technological frames.

Unveiling the Technological Outcomes of Microgravity Research Through Patent Analysis: Implications for Business and Policy

The relevance of microgravity research—i.e., research activities related to the possibility to generate and/or take advantage of an environment scantly affected by gravitational effects—is becoming more and more important for both policymakers and executives, not only in the aerospace domain but also in many other domains. However, tracing the evolution of the technological landscape deriving from microgravity research is very complex due to the fast-growing solutions emerging from such a research activity as well as their diversified nature in terms of actors and domains of relevance. This makes difficult to identify/foresee the most exploited/promising solutions related to microgravity research, set the research budget for subsequent R&D activities, recognize relevant business opportunities, and regulate access to space. Therefore, this article aims to delve into the technological outcomes of microgravity research, so revealing their main development trends (i.e., temporal trends, the geographic origins of related solutions, main technological areas, key research organizations, and the highly impacting technologies) to provide visions of the future (i.e., technology foresight) and derive implications for business and policy. To do so, we collected and analyzed a unique sample of 4401 patents, applied between 1960 and 2020, in the wide domain of microgravity research.

Roadmapping in Regional Technology Foresight: A Contribution to Nanotechnology Development Strategy

In the article, the authors describe their approach to creating regional nanotechnology development roadmaps. Original visualization and roadmaps for selected nanotechnologies are showcased. The creation of roadmaps was preceded by technology mapping and the selection of priority technologies, for which technology characteristics sheets were developed. Human resources (skills), financial resources, and tangible assets were a basis for the creation of the roadmaps specifying the development of priority nanotechnologies in the studied region (Podlaskie, Poland). The development of the technologies described in the roadmaps is stimulated by the R&D domain, which constitutes one of the roadmap layers. Potential technology application areas form the background for the “market” layer of the roadmaps. Segments related to the general development of a particular technology in time are additional elements enriching the roadmaps. All layers were presented in three-time perspectives. The conducted analysis served as a basis for the integration of the selected priority nanotechnologies into four nanotechnology development scenarios of the region. The obtained results contributed to the formulation of the Regional Nanotechnology Development Strategy. The research was conducted in a framework of the “Technological foresight ‘NT FOR Podlaskie 2020’ Regional strategy of nanotechnology development” project.

Issue on Defence Technology Foresight

Issue on Defence Technology Foresight

Методика відбору критичних технологій

An important condition for the stable development of the country is quality predictive research, in international practice better known as foresight. In this paper, authors analyze the most popular methods of technological foresight, which are used both in Ukraine and in other countries. The positive and negative traits of each of them are determined. This research showed that the most common methods of technological foresight are Delphi, SWOT analysis, expert panels, scenarios, modeling, bibliometric and patent analysis, etc. The analysis also indicated that methods, such as benchmarking, polling, brainstorming, roadmaps and scenarios, conferences, seminars and SWOT analysis cannot be applied to technological foresight in defense sphere. We also cannot talk about the use of exclusively methods of bibliometric and patent analysis, if the statistical data is not enough to predictive research. Therefore, we cannot forecast future technological directions without expert methods, but it should be borne in mind that expert estimates always have an error. The authors proposed a new method of technological foresight to determine the list of critical technologies in the defense sector of Ukraine - the method of critical technologies. It combines expert methods (Delphi and expert panel method) and statistical methods (patent and bibliometric analysis). The paper describes the complete algorithm of conducting predictive research regarding to determine the critical technologies list in the defense sector of Ukraine. In addition, the full decision-making structure the selection of technologies to the list of critical ones was demonstrated, with a description of the composition of the expert commission and generalized selection criteria. A new principle is proposed for cutting off non-priority technologies based on differentiation of the approximated function and determination of the point of equal increments of abscissa and ordinate. The algorithm involves carrying out two stages of the survey, the Delphi method and method of pairwise comparisons, bibliometric and patent analysis. As a result of the foresight by the method of critical technologies, we get an objective ranking of critical technologies.

HYBRID ROUGH SET AND DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS APPROACH TO TECHNOLOGY PRIORITISATION

The complexity and speed of change in technological systems pose new challenges to technology management. Particular attention should be given to the issue of modelling the uncertainty of assessments and creating rules for determining the weights of the technology assessment criteria. The article aims to present a comprehensive hybrid technology prioritisation model based on the Data Envelopment Analysis and the concept of Rough Sets. The technology prioritisation process that uses the proposed model includes three consecutive stages: (i) the formulation of technology assessment matrix, (ii) the removal of the criteria redundancy based on indiscernibility relation defined in the Rough Set Theory, (iii) the development of rough variables and prioritisation using the DEA super-efficiency model. The combination of DEA and RS is a unique proposal to classify and rank objects based on the tabular representation of their conditional attributes under circumstances of uncertainty. Application of the developed hybrid model to the real data of the technology foresight project “NT FOR Podlaskie 2020” positively verified the assumed effects of its use. The obtained results allow a more objective and rational justification of the chosen technology, simplification of interpretation and better authentication of results from the perspective of decision-makers.