Technology Foresight Studies Research Articles

Sustainable management and the prospects for innovation and technological development in Poland

Introduction. Science and technology policy should be the most dynamic policy domains in Poland. The strong political interest in science and technology reflects a wide recognition of the relevance of scientific research and technological development in relation to industrial competitiveness and societal problems. In preparing for the challenges our country faces in the 21st Century, research and development are regarded as vital, whether they concern aging, transportation and mobility issues or sustainable development. Analysis of recent researches and publications has shown that the published up to date papers aren’t systematic and can’t claim to be a complete analysis in the chosen field. The aim of the articleis to present a recent prospective technological study aimed at reconciling technological development with the long-term goal of achieving sustainable development. Methods. General scientific methods such as the systematic approach, theo­retical generalization and comparison, analysis and synthesis have been used in the research. Results. The aim of the long-term strategies for sustainable development of the state is to provide information and analysis necessary to maintain the leading position in the field of technological development and innovation in the foreseeable future. Currently, a significant method of supporting this activity is technology foresight.In Poland technology foresight activities play an important role in targeting science and technology towards present and future societal needs. Technology foresight is regarded as the most upstream element of the identification of prospects for innovation and technological development. It provides inputs for the formulation of technology policies and strategies that guide the development of the technological infrastructure. In addition, technology foresight provides support to innovation, and incentives and assistance to enterprises in the domain of technology management and technology transfer, leading to enhanced competitiveness and growth.The technologyforesight initiative also provides suitable metho­dologies to promote sustainable and innovative development, fostering economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels. Its outcomes are policies and programs that deal with innovation, industrial growth and competitiveness. Conclusions. The main conclusion of the technology foresight study (especially in their ecolo­gical aspects) is that technology offers opportunities for sustainable development. But alignment of techno­logical developments with sustainability is necessary. The secondary effects like shifting the burden from environment to space should be counteract. Also, more attention is needed for system innovations. The government is an important player on different levels (regulation, stakeholder) and should start the dialogue with relevant parties. The system approach and societal needs offer a useful conceptual frame­work to bring parties together. The technology foresightstudy could form a basis for this dialogue.

Technological Prospection of Oil Nanoparticles: Primary Characteristics and Profiles.

The search for technological applications for oils has been growing largely due to their potential nutritional and economic applications. Encapsulation makes it possible to reduce the disadvantages of oils, such as physical instability or thermodynamics, or to improve their technological properties, enabling their use in various industrial areas. Nanoencapsulated oils have the potential to improve oil bioavailability and achieve controlled release and are able to target bioactive compounds with greater precision than microencapsulated oils. The present study aims to evaluate the primary characteristics and profiles of the technological prospection of oil nanoparticles. This technology foresight study investigates the patenting activity and the academic literature to map out the technological progress and difficulties in the area of nanoencapsulation. Exponential growth in patent filing was noted with a peak in 2017, with China filing the highest number of patents. Regarding the area of application, the food industry was most common followed by the pharmaceutical industry. The most commonly used terms in patent documents on the subject were nanoemulsion and nanoparticle. The most commonly used oil, technique, wall materials and emulsifiers were soybean oil, emulsification, chitosan and lecithin, and Span 80, Tween 80 and Tween 40, respectively. The obtained articles were typically patent documents. The main depositor was Jiangnan University, and most inventors filed the same number of patent documents. Nanoencapsulation of oils has many known advantages that have been widely published in the literature and used by industry. There is a trend in the growth of patent document deposits and related scientific publications, indicating that many innovations have been made, highlighting the importance of oil nanoencapsulation.

Advanced text-mining for trend analysis of Russia’s Extractive Industries

The world economy relies on access to industrial metals, oil and gas for maintaining its critical industrial infrastructure. Although demand is likely to remain high, the most accessible deposits have been depleted. Future capacity growth will be facilitated through further technological developments. Russia as a leading producer is paying great attention to strengthening its competitive edge in global markets. This paper reports on a large-scale technology foresight study of the Russian extractive sector (including oil and gas), which combined expert-based foresight activities with statistical analyses and text-mining techniques based on artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. The presented methodology helped to link the technologies to dominant discussions (e.g. climate change vs rural development) and to flag key trends. Furthermore, quantitative estimates can be identified quickly. The study’s methodology should function as an example for similar studies to support policy planning and investment decisions based on text-mining techniques.

Expert forecast and realized outcomes in technology foresight

Contrary to what happens in forecasting, in which the repetitive nature of events lends itself to the ex post validation of expert judgments, it is usually very difficult to compare directly the forecast of technology foresight studies with realized outcomes. When the comparison is feasible, therefore, there is large opportunity for learning and methodological refinement. The authors of this study had the opportunity to re-examine the findings of a technology foresight exercise on the medical device industry with realized technological performance, five years later. Among the findings of the comparison exercise, intriguing false positive as well as false negative cases have been identified. The paper suggests that these cases are due to specific cognitive and motivational biases of experts and examines the way in which they are at work in the foresight process. It argues that these biases are due to the inability of experts to reason systematically in abstract (or “functional”) terms during the whole foresight process. It also suggests a methodology to mitigate the biases and to manage the emergence of false positives and false negatives.

Technology foresight study on assistive technology for locomotor disability

Technology foresight study on assistive technology for locomotor disability

Technological Prospection on Membranes Containing Silver Nanoparticles for Water Disinfection.

Membrane separation is an established technological process, and since 1980s, it has been used commercially at large industrial plants worldwide. Water and wastewater disinfection is one of the applications of membrane technologies, but fouling and biofouling are still a challenge for the sector. The use of silver nanoparticles in membranes has attracted research interest because of their biocidal action. This technology foresight study investigates the academic literature and patenting activity to map out the technological progress and difficulties in the area. One hundred and sixty-seven articles on the subject published between 2005 and 2017 were retrieved, and it was found that the greatest number of publications were undertaken in 2016. A wide range of materials being used to make membranes and institutions involved in researching this technology were identified. Fifty-nine patents of relevance were also retrieved, with 2011 and 2013 seeing the highest number of patent applications filed. The countries with the most academic output and priority patents are the United States and China, but no institution stands out from the others in this area.

New industrial platforms and radical technology foresight: the case of 3D printing in Finland and Europe

This article presents futures oriented analyses of 3D printing, which are based on technology foresight study performed in Finland in 2013. The methodological framework of the Finnish technology foresight study is shortly introduced and explained in this article. The analysis reflects current discussion about 3D printing technology options in Finland, as is reflected in report of Linturi et al. (2013, 2014). The analyses of 3D printing provided in this article are also linked to broader international and European context. TechCast study (Halal, 2013) and FutMan scenarios of JRC (Geyer et al., 2003a, 2003b) are elaborated. The analyses reveal several emerging aspects and bottlenecks of 3D printing and new industrial revolution. The emerging aspects are related to the rise of new technological possibilities and new production processes. The bottlenecks include issues such as lacking capacities and competencies of industrial actors in adopting new technological solutions, uncertainties in the efficiency and performance of 3D printing solutions, problematic of wider societal transition, and potential risks potentially generated by 3D printing systems and technologies.

New industrial platforms and radical technology foresight: the case of 3D printing in Finland and Europe

This article presents futures oriented analyses of 3D printing, which are based on technology foresight study performed in Finland in 2013. The methodological framework of the Finnish technology foresight study is shortly introduced and explained in this article. The analysis reflects current discussion about 3D printing technology options in Finland, as is reflected in report of Linturi et al. (2013, 2014). The analyses of 3D printing provided in this article are also linked to broader international and European context. TechCast study (Halal, 2013) and FutMan scenarios of JRC (Geyer et al., 2003a, 2003b) are elaborated. The analyses reveal several emerging aspects and bottlenecks of 3D printing and new industrial revolution. The emerging aspects are related to the rise of new technological possibilities and new production processes. The bottlenecks include issues such as lacking capacities and competencies of industrial actors in adopting new technological solutions, uncertainties in the efficiency and performance of 3D printing solutions, problematic of wider societal transition, and potential risks potentially generated by 3D printing systems and technologies.

A multiple correspondence analysis model for evaluating technology foresight methods

Technology foresight (TF) studies the appropriate extrapolation methodologies for predicting the most likely technology development scenarios in the future. Although there is a vast literature dealing with the classification and development of technology foresight methods (TFMs), the problem of selecting those that best reflect the characteristics of an organization is challenging and remains mostly overlooked. We propose a TFM evaluation procedure that allows decision makers and managers to successfully address this problem. The proposed procedure identifies the most relevant TFMs and organizational criteria and uses them in a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) model to select the most suitable method(s) for implementation. The proposed MCA model combines the doubling data technique with a row principal scoring procedure to allow for the reduction of dimensionality and, consequently, the graphical analysis of the patterns of relationships among TFMs and evaluation criteria. We present a case study in a knowledge-based organization to demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed evaluation procedure. The results show that the proposed model can be properly adapted to allow for a wide range of applications involving business organizations and government agencies.

Foresight of modern urban infrastructure

The article is devoted to ways of interaction between authorities and residents of the megalopolis based on the penetration of intelligent systems and technologies in the sector of the city, aimed at improving the life’s quality in the “smart city.” The results of studies that allow us to offer include interactive services that enable residents of the metropolis to organize cooperation with the city administration; in the technology foresight study prospects of urban infrastructure development are given. An attempt was made to present the conceptual foundations of strategic foresight. Materials of article are of practical value and can be used by preparation of actions for increase in information availability to residents of the megalopolis of quality and variety of the rendered services.

Technology foresight in asset intensive industries: The case of Russian shipbuilding

Developing competitive national shipbuilding industries is a strategic priority for many countries. Shipbuilding has evolved into a high tech industry over the last few decades that is strongly driven by customer needs and wishes. Consequently economic development of the industry is now far more complex than previously.International competition in the shipbuilding industry is very strong in all segments of the industry. The article assesses the future development of the shipbuilding industry globally and evaluates the position and opportunities for Russian shipbuilding. International experience of estimating industries' future development shows that a necessary condition of success is building a vision of the industry's long-term future in the context of social and economic development. One way to create such a long-term vision is through developing scenarios based on factors including wild card events, global challenges, trends, threats, drivers, barriers, and limitations.One of the most effective approaches to enhance competitiveness of the industry is Technology Foresight. The paper presents results of Foresight for civil shipbuilding in Russia on the basis of benchmarking, expert procedures and scenario analysis. It demonstrates how Technology Foresight was adjusted to the special conditions of Russia as an emerging country and how the special features of strategic industries which are in the national interest of countries can be included in Technology Foresight studies. Finally the article derives strategies for policy making to set priorities for revitalizing the industry.

A Product-Based Strategic Technology Management Methodology for Developing Countries

As the degree of globalization increases, developing country’s race with countries practicing knowledge society norms requires creative techniques. Countries with limited technological capabilities tend to confront with middle-income trap that makes them create strategies profiting from technological innovation. The well-known method is to perform a technology foresight study and establish the technologies that the country must develop to improve its wellbeing. This paper proposes a differed approach in which a high technology product is serving as the prime motivation behind the nations planning of technology progress. The outcome of the methodology is the selection, prioritization and planning of necessary technologies of the product using all technological capabilities of the nation. Results of the exercise are instrumental in establishing the technology base of the country and enhance its promise of improving technological capability to a higher level. The paper explains the developed methodology and discusses its outputs.

A MOBILE COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY WITH SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH

Although the importance of mobile computing is gradually being recognized, mobile computing technology development and adoption have not been clearly realized. This paper focuses on the technology planning strategy for organizations that have an interest in developing or adopting mobile computing technology. By using scenario analysis, a technology planning strategy is constructed. In this study, thirty mobile computing technologies are classified into six groups, and the importance and risk factors of these technologies are then evaluated under two possible scenarios. The main research findings include the discovery that most mobile computing software technologies are rated high to medium in importance and low risk in both scenarios, and that scenario changes will have less impact on mobile computing devices and on mobile computing software technologies. These results provide a reference for organizations interested in developing or adopting mobile computing technology. To cite this document: Wei-Hsiu Weng and Woo-Tsong Lin, A mobile computing technology foresight study with scenario planning approach, International Journal of Electronic Commerce Studies, Vol.6, No.2, pp.223-232, 2015. Permanent link to this document: http://dx.doi.org/10.7903/ijecs.1242 Â

A Delphi Technology Foresight Study: Mapping Social Construction of Scientific Evidence on Metagenomics Tests for Water Safety.

Access to clean water is a grand challenge in the 21st century. Water safety testing for pathogens currently depends on surrogate measures such as fecal indicator bacteria (e.g., E. coli). Metagenomics concerns high-throughput, culture-independent, unbiased shotgun sequencing of DNA from environmental samples that might transform water safety by detecting waterborne pathogens directly instead of their surrogates. Yet emerging innovations such as metagenomics are often fiercely contested. Innovations are subject to shaping/construction not only by technology but also social systems/values in which they are embedded, such as experts’ attitudes towards new scientific evidence. We conducted a classic three-round Delphi survey, comprised of 107 questions. A multidisciplinary expert panel (n = 24) representing the continuum of discovery scientists and policymakers evaluated the emergence of metagenomics tests. To the best of our knowledge, we report here the first Delphi foresight study of experts’ attitudes on (1) the top 10 priority evidentiary criteria for adoption of metagenomics tests for water safety, (2) the specific issues critical to governance of metagenomics innovation trajectory where there is consensus or dissensus among experts, (3) the anticipated time lapse from discovery to practice of metagenomics tests, and (4) the role and timing of public engagement in development of metagenomics tests. The ability of a test to distinguish between harmful and benign waterborne organisms, analytical/clinical sensitivity, and reproducibility were the top three evidentiary criteria for adoption of metagenomics. Experts agree that metagenomic testing will provide novel information but there is dissensus on whether metagenomics will replace the current water safety testing methods or impact the public health end points (e.g., reduction in boil water advisories). Interestingly, experts view the publics relevant in a “downstream capacity” for adoption of metagenomics rather than a co-productionist role at the “upstream” scientific design stage of metagenomics tests. In summary, these findings offer strategic foresight to govern metagenomics innovations symmetrically: by identifying areas where acceleration (e.g., consensus areas) and deceleration/reconsideration (e.g., dissensus areas) of the innovation trajectory might be warranted. Additionally, we show how scientific evidence is subject to potential social construction by experts’ value systems and the need for greater upstream public engagement on metagenomics innovations.

Future Industrial Platforms and Radical Technology Foresight: The Case of 3-D Printing in Finland

This article presents futures oriented analyses of 3D printing, which are based on technology foresight study performed in Finland in 2013. The methodological framework of the Finnish technology foresight study is shortly introduced and explained in this article. The analysis reflects current discussion about 3D printing technology options in Finland, as is reflected in report of Linturi et al (2013; 2014). The analyses of 3D printing provided in this article are also linked to broader international and European context. TechCast study (Halal 2013) and FutMan scenarios of JRC (Geyer et al. 2003a & 2003b) are elaborated. The analyses reveal several emerging aspects and bottlenecks of 3D printing and new industri-al revolution. The emerging aspects are related to the rise of new techno-logical possibilities and new production processes. The bottlenecks in-clude issues such as lacking capacities and competencies of industrial ac-tors in adopting new technological solutions, uncertainties in the efficien-cy and performance of 3D printing solutions, problematic of wider societal transition, and potential risks potentially generated by 3D printing systems and technologies.

OMICS 2.0: A Practice Turn for 21st Century Science and Society

OMICS 2.0: A Practice Turn for 21^st Century Science and Society

Exploring the impact of technology foresight studies on innovation: Case of BRIC countries

This paper explores technology foresight activities in the BRIC countries. The article starts from recent trends in foresight research, including the generation models, methodologies, connections with innovation, and influence of globalization. The case analysis section will focus on the development of technology foresight activities in BRICs. Some common technology foresight issues and characteristics are identified and summarized for the BRICs and other emerging countries.

The future of science and technology and pro‐poor applications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The paper looks to re‐orient the technology foresight community to adopting an explicit pro‐poor perspective when considering future developments in science and technology (S&T).Design/methodology/approachThe paper presents a general overview of existing technology foresight studies from organizations located in North America, Europe, and Asia. By describing the key points made in a selection of foresight studies, the paper emphasizes the conceptual links between forward‐looking analysis related to S&T and poverty‐related issues.FindingsThe paper reaches two main conclusions about the role of S&T foresight and development. The first is that the foresight research community needs to interact more closely with the development community in order to enhance the value of the findings in each field to the other. Second, the pressing matter of poverty alleviation requires that the foresight community should come together and create a sense of urgency in issues that have long‐term implications but need immediate action and attention.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper is limited to an approach that provides an overview of existing work in technology foresight. While no such review could be comprehensive, this paper provides examples of technology foresight analysis from a range of geographies, sectors, and perspectives to help mitigate this gap.Practical implicationsThe argument suggests that technology foresight practitioners should make issues of poverty an explicit topic or category of analysis in future technology foresight activities. Including poverty issues in future scenario activities would go a long way to closing this gap.Originality/valueThis paper synthesizes ideas from a variety of forward‐looking studies addressing the future of science and technology and identifies the need to include poverty as a dimension for analysis in future studies. In addition, the paper provides an introduction to technology foresight work being conducted in Asia by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.

Cost development of future technologies for power generation—A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments

Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development.

Comparing recent technology foresight studies in Korea and China: towards foresight‐minded governments?

PurposeThis paper seeks to compare recent third generation technology foresight studies in South Korea and mainland China. Both studies were released in 2005.Design/methodology/approachReview of the foresight reports released by the Chinese and Korean governments (not available in English), interviews with the project leaders of foresight studies.FindingsChina is relatively behind Korea in the sophistication of its technology foresight methodology. Chinese foresight is second generation (technology focus) whereas Korea's is third generation (society focus). There is no example of policy up‐take of TF results in China so far but there was one very recent example in Korea. There was no private sector participation in using Chinese foresight results; however, there was limited participation in Korea. Foresight methodology should be generally enhanced.Practical implicationsA better link between policy‐making and foresight process is needed. This requires changes at both ends. Governance issues of foresight are addressed towards the end of the paper.Originality/valueOriginal, unpublished competitive paper for the ASIALICS 2006 International Conference, Shanghai, April 2006.