Technology Foresight Studies Research Articles

Sensor foresight—technology and market

A technology foresight study on sensor technology has been carried out in order to enhance a strategic outlook on sensor technology. The conclusions of the sensor technology report are based on: 1) technology mapping and scanning existing forward-looking literature on sensor technology, 2) a number of structured expert workshops with international participants, and 3) an international, internet-based Delphi survey with respondents from 24 countries. The study has analysed six categories of sensors (electromagnetic, mechanical, electrical, magnetic, chemical, nuclear) covering 13 sub-categories and a number of systemic issues. All sources of information (i.e. the literature survey, expert judgements, the questionnaire survey) indicate the same pattern regarding future attractiveness of sensor categories. MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems) and optical sensors, biochemical/biological sensors, and systemic issues are all expected to be the most interesting sensor categories over the next 10 years regarding market volume. Expectations for the future development of biosensors have conflicted. General technological key features are expected to be quite generic: low price, small size, robustness, dispensability, and the ability to be self-calibrating. Future sensors are expected to be integrated systems in multiple objects.

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.

Public foresight exercises at an intermediate level: the French national programmes and the experience of Bordeaux

The article aims at describing an experience of technology foresight at the regional level. That experience was built upon previous national (and international) foresight studies. It is possible to analyse the institutional process of such a project in a global context, and also to draw some conclusions on the possibility and usefulness of articulating different geographical levels. The experience enlightens the notion of intermediate level in process of foresight, assessment or policy evaluation. Our study gives good confirmation of the fact that public technology foresight studies are often more valuable as a process of communication, network building and collective learning than for their results. The choice of the operators, their legitimacy and the right timing proved also to be crucial aspects for the success of such programs.

The ECT angle

This paper examines future trends in the environment and clean technologies (ECT) sector. Seven national technology foresight studies have been reviewed with the purpose of (i) screening the main issues linked to environmental and clean technologies (ii) highlighting major developments that are likely to play a crucial role for future paths towards sustainability.

Food for the future

This paper aims to identify the future trends in the agro‐food sector over the next two decades. Ten national technology foresight studies have been reviewed with the purpose of (i) envisaging the future socio‐economic and technology framework of the sector and (ii) highlighting major agro‐food technology clusters and their future application.