Technology Development Pathways Research Articles

Integrated assessment models for resource–environment–economy coordinated development

AbstractResources–environment–economy coordinated development (REECD) is important for global sustainable development goals (SDGs). Integrated assessment model (IAM) is widely applied to investigate REECD‐related issues and design policy or technology development pathways. Accordingly, this study reviews existing literatures on the REECD related IAMs in terms of nexus mechanism, classification, theoretical basis and applicability, and puts forward possible expansion dimensions for improving the models. IAMs could be categorized into top‐down ones mainly based on computable general equilibrium and optimization theories, and bottom‐up ones generally based on engineering‐technological and ecology‐environmental analysis. Top‐down and bottom‐up combined IAMs are increasingly employed to evaluate the impacts of policy implementation, technological penetration and behavior modification, in order to improve the accuracy for decision‐making. Meanwhile, IAMs for REECD are need to be further developed to increase its applicability for analyzing high‐resolution and high‐frequency inventories of resource development and pollutant emissions. Existing IAMs should also embrace key resources consumption such as heavy and strategic metals. Due to tighter carbon emission space under 1.5‐degree and carbon‐neutral climate targets, the nexus mechanism of REECD would change significantly in future, which we need to characterize these variations in the models. Furthermore, researchers and developers should pay more attention to model improvement towards the developing and emerging economies.This article is categorized under: Sustainable Development > Emerging Economies Sustainable Development > Goals Human and Social Dimensions > Energy and Climate Justice

Foresighting Australian digital agricultural futures: Applying responsible innovation thinking to anticipate research and development impact under different scenarios

CONTEXTPublic and private research institutions are grappling with the challenges and opportunities of embedding dimensions of responsible innovation within their research and development programs, including those seeking to transform agricultural productivity and sustainability through digital technologies. Central to meeting this challenge is building institutional, organisational and professional capacity for anticipation and reflexiveness within multidisciplinary research communities. Foresighting methodologies provide a means by which this might be usefully and practically enabled, whilst also shedding light on the broader social and ethical implications of alternative agricultural technology development pathways under uncertain environmental and industry futures. OBJECTIVEThis paper presents the results of a participatory foresighting exercise undertaken as part of a large, publicly funded multi-disciplinary research initiative designed to build a common big data infrastructure to harness the benefits of the digital revolution for the Australian agricultural and land sectors. We seek to explore what role digital technology will play in the future of Australian agriculture and to consider the social and ethical implications. METHODSWe ran a one-day foresighting workshop comprised of four steps – 1) horizon scanning to identify trends 2) selecting two drivers of change 3) producing a matrix to generate scenarios 4) building and refining scenarios. Participants explored different possible futures of farming in Australia, with a focus on scenarios involving socio-technical dimensions of digital agriculture to consider the implications of these futures for research practice and for farming communities. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSFour scenarios were developed, distinguished by the interplay of two critical but uncertain drivers of change identified by participants, namely: the degree of resource security or insecurity that future agricultural enterprises are likely to experience; and the degree to which farming sectors maintain traditional farm business models and associated value chains or transition to more diverse or innovative business models. The process highlighted the need to increase the capacity and opportunity for more reflexivity in research and development, if positive outcomes were to be achieved. SIGNIFICANCEThe scenarios we produced provide a catalyst for conversation about the implications of digital technology development in Australia and globally, for industry, policy and research and development. In particular, the scenarios highlight potential changes in farm business models, decision making, and beneficiaries and inequities of new technologies and other components of food value chains. The paper also serves as a guide and prompt for others, by demonstrating one way reflexivity can be achieved in organisations attempting innovation.

In-flight thrust monitoring: an acoustics-based approach

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an acoustics-based method for measuring turbofan nozzle exhaust thrust, while assessing the potential of scaling the methods for in-flight measurements. Design/methodology/approach Although many methods proposed for achieving in-flight thrust measurements involve complicated, sensitive and expense instruments, an acoustics-based approach is discussed that greatly simplifies the technology development pathway to in-flight applications. Findings Results are provided for a minimum set of sensors applied in the exhaust of a research turbofan engine at Virginia Tech, showing the difference in acoustics-measured thrust and nozzle thrust found by integrating thermocouple and Kiel probe measurements to be less than 6 per cent at the maximum fan speed examined. Practical implications Measuring accurate thrust values in flight will prove immediately valuable for installed thrust validation and engine health monitoring. Acoustics-based methodologies are attractive because of the robustness and low cost of sensors and sources. The value of in-flight thrust measurements, along with the benefits of acoustic approaches, makes the current topic of great interest for further development. Originality/value This paper presents unique applications of a time-of-flight acoustic thrust sensor, while providing an original assessment of technological challenges involved with the progression of the technique for in-flight measurements.

Assessing the Potential to Reduce U.S. Building CO2 Emissions 80% by 2050

Summary Buildings are responsible for 36% of CO2 emissions in the United States and will thus be integral to climate change mitigation; yet, no studies have comprehensively assessed the potential long-term CO2 emissions reductions from the U.S. buildings sector against national goals in a way that can be regularly updated in the future. We use Scout, a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, to investigate the potential for the U.S. buildings sector to reduce CO2 emissions 80% by 2050, consistent with the U.S. Mid-Century Strategy. We find that a combination of aggressive efficiency measures, electrification, and high renewable energy penetration can reduce CO2 emissions by 72%–78% relative to 2005 levels, just short of the target. Results are sufficiently disaggregated by technology and end use to inform targeted building energy policy approaches and establish a foundation for continual reassessment of technology development pathways that drive significant long-term emissions reductions.

Review: far-infrared instrumentation and technological development for the next decade

Far-infrared astronomy has advanced rapidly since its inception in the late 1950's, driven by a maturing technology base and an expanding community of researchers. This advancement has shown that observations at far-infrared wavelengths are important in nearly all areas of astrophysics, from the search for habitable planets and the origin of life, to the earliest stages of galaxy assembly in the first few hundred million years of cosmic history. The combination of a still developing portfolio of technologies, particularly in the field of detectors, and a widening ensemble of platforms within which these technologies can be deployed, means that far-infrared astronomy holds the potential for paradigm-shifting advances over the next decade. In this review, we examine current and future far-infrared observing platforms, including ground-based, sub-orbital, and space-based facilities, and discuss the technology development pathways that will enable and enhance these platforms to best address the challenges facing far-infrared astronomy in the 21st century.

(Invited) The Role of Variability in Failure for High Energy and High Power Batteries

The demand for higher power and higher energy Li-ion and Li metal batteries continues to increase. In order to meet expectations the utilization of materials and cell designs need to be optimized. The result of the need for high utilization is that small variations within a group of cells can create significant difference in performance and failure. As part of an effort to advance the performance of Li metal batteries and specifically to increase specific energy closer to 500 Wh/kg recent work looking at the ability to more clearly understand and define the role that cell variability has on the performance of Li metal batteries has been undertaken. This work has shown that significant impact to performance arises as a set of cells, which at the beginning of life had low variability, age. Refined analysis of the electrochemical data enables key variation in Li utilization and other fade mechanisms to be clearly identified and quantified across the different cells. Complimentary work looking at the ability to fast charge, Li-ion cells in 10 minutes or less has also begun. This presentation will discuss the analysis methodology, key similarities in identifying the role of variability and how a more refined understanding can significantly impact the technology development pathway.

SWOT analysis of The Brain Dialogue, an Australian prototype Responsible Research and Innovation engagement program for neuroscience

ABSTRACTDialogue between diverse publics and scientists is essential to ensuring that fast-moving research such as neuroscience delivers knowledge and technologies that meet society’s needs, and align with its values. In Australia, neuroscience engagement programs typically promote brain research to the publics, rather than seek their input. We argue for a shift to Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI)-type engagement, where scientists share their knowledge, and non-scientists share their attitudes, needs, insights and expectations, starting early in the technology-development pathway. This would allow the developmental pathway to be modified to meet society’s needs and mores. We have developed a prototype RRI engagement program for neuroscience, adapted to local Australian conditions, called The Brain Dialogue. Our preliminary results suggest it is possible to alter developmental pathways. Here, we describe its components: knowledge sharing; structured issues-driven activities that include diverse stakeholders; and social research and policy development responding directly to end-user needs. To help others set up similar programs, and the development of the RRI field, we offer a detailed, warts-and-all analysis of The Brain Dialogue’s Strengths and Weaknesses, and the Opportunities and Threats it faces.

Converting clinical risks into economic value: The role of expectations and institutions in health technology development

The ability to handle clinical and business risks is critical to an academic spin-off that seeks to develop a new medical technology. The milestones it has to meet to materialize its innovation are objects of speculation for those who finance its operations, and also for stakeholders who comment publicly on its progress. Such future-oriented expectations are not, however, mere hype since they operate within a set of practices that are highly institutionalized. Building on insights from sociology of expectations and institutions, this paper elicits how specific institutional requirements provide potency to the expectations that pave the health technology development pathway. Nested within five years of qualitative fieldwork, our study relies on a media coverage analysis to examine, over a decade, technology development in five Canadian spin-offs. Our findings illustrate a three-step process that involves: 1) measuring clinical risks that are convertible into business opportunities; 2) structuring technological entrepreneurship for growth; and 3) mitigating commercial risks to protect the spin-offs' economic value. Over time, expectations and institutions redefine where risks and opportunities lie, converting clinical risks into economic value. While the spin-offs support speculative economic value extraction, the technologies they materialize may fall short of fulfilling their clinical promises.

Characterising CCS learning: The role of quantitative methods and alternative approaches

A number of energy scenario studies have suggested that carbon capture and storage (CCS) could make a significant contribution to reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This would require efforts to ensure rapid development and deployment. Since there is limited experience of CCS systems, it is hard to define ‘business as usual’ development. This leads to significant uncertainty for policy makers and other stakeholders with regard to characterising potential CCS pathways and assessing the scope for and risks of acceleration.Quantitative analytical approaches to projecting costs and other parameters typically depend on best current estimates of critical input data, as well as implicit or explicit assumptions about technology development pathways and contextual factors such as evolving regulatory requirements. There are significant limitations in current quantitative (and qualitative) data on CCS that lead to significant difficulties in identifying robust assumptions. One way to handle this is to develop multiple scenarios to illustrate the uncertainty. Another strategy is to make more use of qualitative methods for analysing CCS innovation processes. This latter approach could help to avoid some of the issues associated with CCS cost uncertainty and instead re-focus attention on understanding critical aspects of innovation processes.

Innovative characterization, monitoring and sensor technologies for environmental radioactivity at USDOE sites

The mission of the U. S. Department of Energy Office of EnvironmentalManagement (EM) is to clean up its contaminated sites from the past productionof nuclear weapons. Within EM, the Office of Science and Technology (OST)is responsible for providing a full range of science and technology resourcesneeded to support resolution of EM cleanup and long-term environmental stewardshipproblems. This responsibility includes implementation of a technology developmentpathway from basic research to development, demonstration, and deploymentof scientific and technological solutions needed by DOE sites. One OST Programis the Characterization, Monitoring, and Sensor Technology Crosscutting Program(CMST-CP), which aims to provide innovative technologies (i.e., faster, better,cheaper, and/or safer) for environmental characterization and monitoring.This paper describes several technologies that CMST-CP has supported for developmentwith significant benefits realized or projected over the baseline characterizationand monitoring practices. Examples of these technologies include mapping ofsubsurface radioactivity using Cone Penetrometer and drilling techniques;a Rapid Liquid Sampler for Sr, Ra, Tc, and Cs using 3M Empore™ Rad Disks;Long-Range Alpha Detectors; a Compact High Resolution Spectrometer; BetaScint™for determination of Sr in soil; Laser-Induced Fluorescence Imaging techniquesfor mapping U on surfaces; the Environmental Measurements While Drilling System;and the Expedited Site Characterization methodology.