Risk Assessment Techniques Research Articles

Risk prioritization in a core preparation experiment using fuzzy VIKOR integrated with Shannon entropy method

Accident rates in academic laboratories are increasing rapidly day to day. The incorporation of complex activities with the inclusion of modern technologies and human behavior during experiments often makes it difficult to manage health and safety risks. Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) is widely used risk assessment technique that consider (03) risk parameters which include severity (S), occurrence (O), and detection (D), and calculate a risk priority number (R.P.N), which facilitates in failure modes ranking. However, there are some shortcomings associated with this method. This study aims to propose a framework for prioritizing the health and safety risks (failure modes) in an experiment using a widely used Multi-criteria decision-making method, i.e., Fuzzy VIKOR supported by criteria objective weights determined using the Shannon entropy concept. The fuzzy VIKOR method is employed to rank the failure modes based on the maxi group utility and the minimum individual regret. In this study, an experiment related to preparing rock core samples is taken as an example for implementing the proposed technique. Core sample preparation is one of the most common and dangerous experiments in the petroleum industry. The performance of the experiment allows rock sample preparation of desired shape and size to be tested for its hydrocarbon producing potential. The final results indicate that applying the proposed method in a fuzzy environment can efficiently prioritize the experiment’s health and safety risks, which is further considered for the implementation of control measure prioritization. The proposed approach can be applied to other experiments with the same or different domains.

Development of a solubility parameter calculation-based method as a complementary tool to traditional techniques for indoor dust microplastic determination and risk assessment

Herein, a method based on solubility parameter calculation was first used to analyze microplastics in indoor dust. The limit of quantification (LOQ) reached 0.2 mg/g, and the result of reference material SRM 2585 (n = 3) was 14.8 mg/g ± 1.8 %, suggesting satisfying sensitivity and precision. Recoveries of spiking experiments were > 80 % with no obvious matrix interferences observed, except ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) MPs. Further, 69 indoor dust samples were analyzed to verify the method and to assess exposure scenarios for graduate students in Tianjin, China. EPDM was identified in an indoor environment for the first time as the second most widely detected type after PET in this work. The mass-based result is complementary to the outcomes from thermogravimetric analysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and laser direct infrared imaging. Significant correlations were found between total organic carbon (TOC), microplastics, and BDE-209 concentrations, indicating microplastics important contaminant vectors in indoor dust. Dormitory stays and PET contributed the most to health risks among the three exposure scenarios and detected four polymers, respectively. This work provides an approach with the potential for the standardized determination of microplastics in complex environmental matrices and reveals exposure characteristics of indoor dust microplastics.

Determining essential criteria for selection of risk assessment techniques in occupational health and safety: A hybrid framework of fuzzy Delphi method

A large number of techniques have been developed to assess risks in the field of occupational health and safety (OHS). These techniques are applied to identify, analyze, and evaluate the risks. Ambiguity and lack of explicit instruction and a structured framework in the selection sometimes result in applying inappropriate techniques. Before selecting, it is necessary to evaluate and prioritize alternatives based on weighting in precise and well-defined criteria. In this study, to determine the essential criteria with a mixed approach in the form of a hybrid framework, first, influential factors in risk assessment technique selection mentioned by previous studies were studied. Then through meta-synthesis of data, these factors were separated into four categories, 1) factors related to the organizations’ characteristics, 2) factors related to the characteristics of techniques, 3) factors related to stakeholder participation, and 4) selection criteria for weighting risk assessment techniques. The fourth category, separated as selection criteria, was put to the opinion and judgment of OHS experts for validation. Using the fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), which decreases the degree of uncertainty in the results by fuzzy calculations, after two rounds of questionnaire interviews, 89% of the experts and above with moderate agreement, equivalent to the value of Fleiss kappa coefficient of 0.4, rated the specified criteria as relatively to undoubtedly important. Finally, a ranked list of 25 essential weighting criteria was presented in the form of nine dimensions, along with their comprehensive definitions. In the opinion of this study’s experts, the dimension ‘To be comprehensive’ gained the maximum importance, especially in two criteria, ‘System components coverage’ and ‘Hazards and failures coverage’. The criteria rating in this study was without considering a specific organization or industry. Therefore, decision-makers can apply these criteria to select risk assessment techniques for various industries and organizations. The priorities of the criteria, however, may vary in other specific situations depending on the participation of other stakeholders in weighing the criteria to compare the techniques and select the most efficient ones.

Risk Analysis on The Construction Project of The 150 KV Bangkalan High Voltage Transmission Network

Electricity project implemented by PT. PLN (Persero) UIP JBTB is a construction project of the High Voltage Transmission Network and High Voltage Cable Channel 150 kV Bangkalan. The construction will certainly stretch across various terrains that have various levels of risk in the construction process. In addition, the construction project of the High Voltage Transmission Network and High Voltage Cable Channel 150 kV is a very complex project so that each stage has different obstacles so that it has the potential to have high risks in its implementation. The risk management will be based on SNI 8615:2018 ISO 31000:2018 regarding Risk Management – Guidelines and SNI IEC/ISO 31010:2016 Risk Management – Risk Assessment Techniques. The risk management process begins with determining the scope, context and risk criteria and then proceeds with the risk assessment process which includes identification, analysis, risk evaluation and risk treatment. This research was conducted to identify the risks that arise in the High Voltage Transmission Network and High Voltage Cable Channel 150 kV Bangkalan transmission development project and formulate the most effective response for each extreme, very high and high risk category of the project. The risk analysis of the Transmission Network project was carried out using a qualitative method to obtain a risk category. At risk that have extreme, very high, and high categories are risks that cannot be tolerated and a quantitative analysis will be carried out using the Expected Monetary Value method as measured data. Furthermore, with the Decision Tree Analysis diagram, several alternative risk treatment branches will be obtained which will then be analyzed using the multiplication of the response success value with the cost impact value in order to obtain the most effective treatment option. The results of the risk treatment will be categorized into risk mitigation, transferring risk, and accepting risk and the result of residual risk will be known through testing the effectiveness of handling risk treatment. The highest risk in this study is the risk of less than optimal contractor performance which causes project completion to be late with risk treatment by means of the good/services provider process being selected through an auction process which is included in the list of selected providers. The recording the risk register is also carried out as a database in risk analysis research on the construction project of the 150 kV Bangkalan high voltage transmission network.

Dynamic Bayesian network-based operational risk assessment for industrial water pipeline leakage

Water losses become a major problem that threatens Water Distribution System (WDS) and require serious investigations and sophisticated control process. Water utilities and industries are mainly concerned to understand the cause of hydraulic failures and to manage it efficiently in order to maintain a careful water supply. For instance, a comprehensive dynamic risk assessment task is highly recommended to carry on the water leakage and the Dry-out scenario in WDS. In this context, we propose a Water leakage risk management system that addresses the failure probability of each WDS unit and component in the Tunisian Chemical Group Industry. Furthermore, a new dynamic Bayesian network-based operational risk assessment technique is proposed and simulated to identify the risk factors and take the adequate initiative to reduce the WDS failure probability.

The research progress of next generation risk assessment in cosmetic ingredients and the implications for traditional Chinese medicine risk assessment

IntroductionThe advancement and advocacy of the 3R principle and safety evaluation and risk assessment technology has given rise to an innovative method on a global scale, which known as the Next Generation Risk Assessment (NGRA). This progressive approach adopts a tiered assessment strategy based on prepositive hypothesis and exposure analysis. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods that rely on toxicological endpoint animal tests, NGRA lays emphasis on evaluating the exposure process by outlining the mechanisms and significant key events leading to adverse outcomes. The NGRA process entails prioritizing the robust high-throughput screening and prediction tools to enhance the accuracy, efficiency, and relevance of the assessment. ResultThis review provides an overview of the principles, framework, and tools of NGRA as recommended by the International Cosmetics Regulatory Cooperation Organization (ICCR). Furthermore, the review encompasses published case studies of cosmetics ingredients and elucidates the potential applications and technical challenges associated with NGRA while considering the extant safety evaluation requirements for cosmetics ingredients in China. Moreover, the review synthesizes a selection of case studies of cosmetics ingredients and hope to proffer implications for the assessment of risk in traditional Chinese medicine. ConclusionIt was hoped to help researchers to investigate novel techniques of safety risk assessment and propose research concepts for both cosmetics and traditional Chinese medicine.

A review on understanding the risk factors for coronary heart disease in Indian college students

ABSTRACT College students shift from being adolescents to becoming adults, and they are more likely to embrace habits that increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). India has 253 million teenagers and is the second-most populous nation in the world. The current situation in India shows that young people there are at risk for CHD-related diseases. The long-term CHD risk in the future is highly predicted by the current risk factors in young people. The purpose of the current study is to describe all the research that was done among Indian college students to show the depth of CHD exposure in young people. This analysis emphasizes the demand for better risk assessment techniques and more youth awareness among Indians. The evidence of the persistence of CHD risk factors in these college-bound students comes from various cross-sectional studies. However, they are largely modifiable risk factors for diabetes, hypertension, and CHD that are very common among India’s student population. These CHD risks can be changed in 80% of cases. Therefore, a community-based approach will be helpful in this multicultural nation to prevent CHD. To correctly identify and manage CHD, increased screening should play a crucial role in tandem with education.

Assessment of Reliability and Technical Risks in the Operation of Heat Engineering Units

Assessment of Reliability and Technical Risks in the Operation of Heat Engineering Units

Automatic Inference of Fault Tree Models Via Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms

Fault tree analysis is a well-known technique in reliability engineering and risk assessment, which supports decision-making processes and the management of complex systems. Traditionally, fault tree (FT) models are built manually together with domain experts, considered a time-consuming process prone to human errors. With Industry 4.0, there is an increasing availability of inspection and monitoring data, making techniques that enable knowledge extraction from large data sets relevant. Thus, our goal with this work is to propose a data-driven approach to infer efficient FT structures that achieve a complete representation of the failure mechanisms contained in the failure data set without human intervention. Our algorithm, the FT-MOEA, based on multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, enables the simultaneous optimization of different relevant metrics such as the FT size, the error computed based on the failure data set and the Minimal Cut Sets. Our results show that, for six case studies from the literature, our approach successfully achieved automatic, efficient, and consistent inference of the associated FT models. We also present the results of a parametric analysis that tests our algorithm for different relevant conditions that influence its performance, as well as an overview of the data-driven methods used to automatically infer FT models.

An Overview of Landslide Management: Scope, Difficulties, Limitations with Future Directions and Opportunities

This study explores the scope, difficulties, limitations, and future directions of landslide management. Landslides pose significant threats to human lives, infrastructure, and the environment, necessitating effective management strategies. The study begins by introducing the topic of landslide management and its importance in mitigating landslide risks. It then delves into the scope of landslide management, including activities such as early warning systems, hazard mapping, and slope stabilization. The study highlights the various challenges faced in landslide management, such as limited resources, technical expertise, and data availability. Additionally, it discusses the limitations of current landslide management practices, emphasizing their inability to completely prevent landslides and the reliance on available technologies. Furthermore, the study presents case studies to provide real-world examples and insights into landslide management approaches. Future directions and opportunities in landslide management are explored, including the integration of advanced technologies, community-based approaches, and improved risk assessment techniques. The study concludes by emphasizing the need for a holistic approach that combines scientific expertise, community engagement, and policy support to achieve effective landslide management and reduce the impacts of these natural hazards.

Financial Feasibility Assessment for PT ABC LNG Production Facility Expansion Plan

PT ABC is an LNG producer that has been producing a reliable LNG for its customers since 2013. Initial GSA with upstream parties is set to be expired in 2026, however, recent development indicates that upstream parties have secured PSC extension for another 20 years. Considering this development, PT ABC is considering an opportunity to secure a long-term gas supply that enables production capacity expansion which will create additional revenue and improve plant reliability. A technical feasibility study has been performed and 2 options with estimated construction time of 30 months are considered feasible. This final project aims to provide a financial feasibility assessment of the production capacity expansion project with capital budgeting and risk assessment technique. Capital budgeting analysis using base case scenario indicates that both options will provide additional value to DSLNG with an estimated NPV 52.1 MUSD, IRR 20.57%, DPBP 9.4 years, and PI 1.52 for Option 1, and estimated NPV 117.8 MUSD, IRR 28.77%, DPBP 8.62 years, and PI 2.68 for Option 2. However, this study also found that some variables are affecting the project financial feasibility significantly, such as LNG and feed gas price, plant availability, Capex realization and long-term debt interest rate. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the project has a probability of success (NPV > 0) of 54.24% for Option 1 and 65.80% for Option 2.

Review of risk assessment tools and techniques for selected aspects of functioning aerodrome operator

The safety risk management is crucial for aviation industry companies. Each of aviation organizations (i.e. airlines, aerodrome operators, General Aviation entities, etc.) has different specificity and deals with different factors. Numerous studies on safety risk management have been conducted, however authors of presented paper have seen a need to review one of the its numerous aspect - the risk assessment from the perspective of aerodrome operator. The variety of risk assessment tools and techniques gives many possibilities, but can also cause disarray if rules or selection criteria for their use have not been developed. The aim of the article is to present the risk assessment tools and techniques, that may be the most beneficial and useful for selected safety aspects of aerodrome functioning. For this purpose, existing risk assessment techniques and tools were collected and briefly reviewed, as well as their usefulness for the aerodrome operator was verified according to the proposed issues related to the safety of aerodrome operations. Analysis have shown that a manual summarizing and reviewing risk assessment tools and techniques could be useful for aerodrome operators.

A review of the effects of environmental hazards on humans, their remediation for sustainable development, and risk assessment.

In the race for economic development and prosperity, our earth is becoming more polluted with each passing day. Technological advances in agriculture and rapid industrialization have drastically polluted the two pillars of natural resources, land and water. Toxic chemicals and microbial contaminants/agents created by natural and anthropogenic activities are rapidly becoming environmental hazards (EH) with increased potential to affect the natural environment and human health. This review has attempted to describe the various agents (chemical, biological, and physical) responsible for environmental contamination, remediation methods, and risk assessment techniques (RA). The main focus is on finding ways to mitigate the harmful effects of EHs through the simultaneous application of remediation methods and RA for sustainable development. It is recommended to apply the combination of different remediation methods using RA techniques to promote recycling and reuse of different resources for sustainable development. The report advocatesfor the development of site-specific, farmer-driven, sequential, and plant-based remediation strategies along with policy support for effective decontamination. This review also focuses on the fact that the lack of knowledge about environmental health is directly related to public health risks and, therefore, focuses on promoting awareness of effective ways to reduce anthropological burden and pollution and on providing valuable data that can be used in environmental monitoring assessments and lead to sustainable development.

Risk Assessment of Substation Integrated Anti-Misoperation System Considering Human Reliability

The integrated substation automation system (ISAS) based on IEC-61850 is the development direction of the intelligent substation. Currently, the reliability research of the ISAS rarely involves the quantitative influence of human factors. Therefore, a risk assessment technique of ISAS considering human reliability is proposed. The technique is based on Human Factors Analysis and Classification System framework, Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis methodology, and Functional Decomposition method. Then, it's applied to the integrated anti-misoperation system in ISAS. The system's reliability considering human error is quantitatively evaluated through a series of studies. The results show that a quantitative method is valuable in assessing the reliability of ISAS. The main contributions of this paper are: 1) to give explicit formulas for risk assessment of ISAS, which objectively describes the system risk and provides risk prompts for dispatch operators; 2) to intuitively reflect how the reliability attributes of the system's equipment and network interfere with the reliability of the system; 3) to prove that human errors will seriously affect the risk level of the system. As the rate of human error increases, the risk level of the system rises until it collapses.

Assessment of reliability and technical risks in the operation of heat engineering units

Приведен способ оценки технических рисков, возникающих при работе теплотехнических агрегатов. Оценка рисков производится на основе данных об остаточном ресурсе футеровки агрегата и оценки степени тяжести последствий аварии. Для получения первичных данных при оценке остаточного ресурса применяется приборный метод, который позволяет вести непрерывный мониторинг теплового состояния футеровки. При этом определяющий фактор разрушения ― термомеханические напряжения, превышающие предел прочности материала, которые рассчитываются по разработанной схеме на основе численных методов.

A long term expected risk estimation of maritime accidents through Markov chain approach and probabilistic risk matrix

Among many risk assessment techniques, qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative, risk matrix is a common tool to assess risk by allocating frequency and consequence of an accident to one of the pre divided frequency and consequence categories. However, since there is no standardized way to define these categories, risk matrix with its strength of being straightforward to use and easy to interpret has inherent uncertainties including objective categorization determination and consistency of decisions on frequency and consequence among different users, which usually results in multiple risk outcomes leading to incorrect conclusion about decision making on risk initiated from accidents.The purpose of the study is to predict a long term risk of maritime accident using a 5 × 5 probabilistic risk matrix where each category of frequency and consequence is probabilistically estimated by a Markov chain model. The proposed method to calculate accident risk is illustrated using maritime accident data over 2016–2020 years. The findings are that the most probable frequency and consequence ranges of maritime accidents will be between 182 and 235 with probability of 0.3878 and between 6.8 and 11.6 fatalities with probability of 0.3791, respectively. The expected risk value was computed as 4.6506 on a scale of 2–10. For the validation of the proposed method 90 %, 95 %, and 99 % confidence intervals were constructed which were shown to contain the predicted risk value. The probabilistic risk matrix with Markov chain approach can be applied to predicting risks in different fields of industries.

Quantitative risk assessment for human Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis exposure through consumption of pork in Mpwapwa District of Dodoma Region, Tanzania.

Pig farming is a livelihood activity undertaken by many rural communities in Tanzania. However, pigs in rural communities become infected with Taenia solium, a zoonotic parasite leading to porcine cysticercosis (PCC). Thus, routine meat inspection is fundamental in ensuring that the meat consumed is PCC-free. However, routine meat inspection is constrained by low sensitivity as a diagnostic test. Regardless of its low sensitivity, at the local level, no substitute tool would potentially lead to meat being risk-free for human infection. This study aimed at quantifying the risk of humans getting exposed to T. solium taeniasis through the consumption of pork approved safe for human consumption by employing a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model. A cross-sectional study employing a quantitative risk assessment technique was conducted to quantify the risk of human infection in Mpwapwa District through exposure to T. solium infection through consumption of officially inspected pork. The input parameters in this study were simulated in @risk software to obtain the risk of exposure and the risk factors for exposure to T. solium taeniasis. The risk of one getting exposed to T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis (TSTC) through consumption of pork approved for human consumption was found to be 0.018 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.00-0.0250). Likewise, the probability that a cyst is localized in a pork portion was found to be the most influencing input risk factor of getting exposed to TSTC. Furthermore, the probability of developing T. solium taeniasis was estimated to be 0.73605 (95% CI = 0-0.950) when infected undercooked pork portion is consumed and 0.99652 (95% CI = 0.98161-0.99908) from consuming raw pork portion. Likewise, about 47 (95% CI = 42-52) people who consumed undercooked pork and 26 (95% CI = 22-30) who consumed raw pork would get infected in Mpwapwa District per year. The results from this study are anticipated to create public awareness of the problem and promote the use of one-health approach in the control and prevention of the consumption of infected pork.

Parasympathetic Cholinergic Dysfunction in Severe Asthma

Aortic dissection (AD) is a cardiovascular disease with a high mortality rate. With the rapid development of genetic testing technology, genomics can be used to predict, diagnose and treat AD. In this review, we summarize studies on AD using the genome, epigenome, transcriptome, proteome and metabolome. Multi-omics analysis can further clarify the mechanisms of AD and provide risk assessment techniques. Although related studies on the different omics of AD have been conducted, the combined analysis of multiple omics has not been studied in depth. In this paper, we will conduct an in-depth discussion of AD research using multiple omics.

Current Progress in Multi-Omics Studies of Aortic Dissection

Aortic dissection (AD) is a cardiovascular disease with a high mortality rate. With the rapid development of genetic testing technology, genomics can be used to predict, diagnose and treat AD. In this review, we summarize studies on AD using the genome, epigenome, transcriptome, proteome and metabolome. Multi-omics analysis can further clarify the mechanisms of AD and provide risk assessment techniques. Although related studies on the different omics of AD have been conducted, the combined analysis of multiple omics has not been studied in depth. In this paper, we will conduct an in-depth discussion of AD research using multiple omics.

A Study on the Risk Assessment Technique of Aviation Sector in the Serious Accidents Punishment Act

A Study on the Risk Assessment Technique of Aviation Sector in the Serious Accidents Punishment Act