Abstract Aims Incisional hernia (IH) rates in midline incisions have been reported to be 12.8% in a systematic review of literature published in 2015. With updated guidance on abdominal wall closure techniques, the landscape of abdominal wall closure has changed. We aimed to update this literature to assess changes in both rates and risk factors for IH in midline incisions. Methods We undertook a systematic review of literature according to PRISMA guidelines and registered on PROSPERO. All papers reporting IH rates in midline incisions with primary suture closure between April 2013-October 2022 were included. Papers with two or more arms suitable for inclusion were extracted independently. Results Sixty three papers (21 RCTs, 36 cohort studies and 6 case-control studies), comprising 18 126 patients were included. The mean IH rate was 16.8% at a weighted mean follow up of 31.3 months. There was no significant increase in IH rates over time. Meta-regression identified two study level variables that correlated with an increase in IH rates (Use of radiology for diagnosis of IH and inclusion of patients undergoing a contaminated procedure) and one operative variable that corresponded with a decrease in rates (Small bites closure technique). Conclusions Incisional hernia rates have increased in midline incisions. Study level characteristics account for the majority of risk, suggesting standardisation of trial technique is aiding in IH detection. Small bites technique is associated with a significant reduction in IH rates, and future work should focus on strengthening the evidence base around this technique.
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