Technical Uncertainties Research Articles

Data science application in structural integrity analysis of fixed offshore jacket platform

Abstract Accuracy in analysing the integrity of a structure is critical for determining the structure’s fitness for service and reliability status. Today, a variety of techniques and approaches are applied, including the use of data science applications. Data science is a synthesis of computer science, mathematics, and statistics. Meanwhile, the integrity of a structure is susceptible to a mix of statistical and technical design uncertainties that may remain flexible as long as the structure is capable of successfully managing the encountered load. Numerous applications are used in the oil and gas sector to estimate the probability of failure (POF), but they all have a particular restriction. Integral interference equations based on load versus strength are reliable for determining the POF of fixed offshore structures. This study is a quantitative risk assessment, emphasising the Python application, an improved and reliable method for calculating the POF value. A representative sample of the monopod offshore structure was chosen and subjected to global non-linear analysis in this study. The most reliable form of distribution was predetermined, and the algorithm created using Python was used to apply and compute the suitable integral equation depending on the load and strength conditions. The Python method’s result demonstrated a high degree of confidence in calculating the new POF in intact condition from a design perspective, inspection interval, and risk to consider.

Rapid determination of ceftazidime/avibactam susceptibility of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales directly from blood cultures: a comparative evaluation of EUCAST disc diffusion RAST and direct Etest® RAST.

To evaluate the performance of two rapid antimicrobial susceptibility testing (RAST) methods to determine ceftazidime/avibactam susceptibility directly from blood cultures (BCs). A total of 246 Escherichia coli or Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates were tested for ceftazidime/avibactam susceptibility directly from BC bottles using EUCAST RAST and Etest® RAST. Results obtained after 4, 6 and 8 h of incubation were compared with those obtained by reference broth microdilution on pure overnight subcultures. In total, the proportion of readable zones after 4 h of incubation was 96.7% and reached 100% after 6 and 8 h of incubation. EUCAST RAST yielded >98% of categorical agreement (CA) with all reading times. Major error (ME) and very major error (VME) rates were inferior to 3%, for each of the reading times. The proportion of results in the area of technical uncertainty (ATU) was almost similar (3.8%-4.1%) at the different reading times. DET-RAST yielded 97.5%, 98% and 99.6% of CA with readings at 4, 6 and 8 h, respectively. One (0.6%) ME was observed at each reading time, whereas five (5.9%) and four (4.5%) VMEs were observed analysing readings at 4 and 6 h, respectively. No VME was observed with readings at 8 h. EUCAST RAST was accurate to determine ceftazidime/avibactam susceptibility of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae and E. coli directly from BC bottles. DET-RAST has the advantage of determining MIC values and avoiding ATU results but showed to be an accurate method only with reading at 8 h.

Environmental, Technical, and Representational Uncertainty: A Framework for Making Sense of the Hidden Complexity of Educational Change

School systems are increasingly working to foster more ambitious learning environments and disrupt institutionalized educational inequities. But such efforts are complicated by a number of uncertainties—about the aims of schooling and how they might be achieved or measured—that suffuse educational organizations. Although there is general agreement that uncertainty is both pervasive and consequential in educational settings, as a field we lack a more unified analytic framework for making sense of this uncertainty. In this article, I seek to advance such a project by drawing on educational and organizational scholarship to identify three forms of uncertainty that pervade school systems. While two of these forms of uncertainty—environmental and technical—are well established in organizational theory, I develop the concept of representational uncertainty as a third form of uncertainty that is particularly impactful in schools. I show how these three forms of uncertainty manifest across different contexts, aims, and levels of school systems; how they interrelate; and how they must be strategically mitigated or fostered in the service of educational improvement.

Cefiderocol: EUCAST criteria for disc diffusion and broth microdilution for antimicrobial susceptibility testing.

ObjectivesThe reproducibility of cefiderocol MIC determination using broth microdilution (BMD) in iron-depleted CAMHB (ID-CAMHB) was investigated, and the EUCAST disc diffusion (DD) method for cefiderocol susceptibility testing was developed and validated against reference BMD.MethodsCefiderocol values were determined for wild-type (WT) and non-WT isolates using BMD plates with ID-CAMHB (Thermo Scientific, Oakwood, USA) per EUCAST guidelines. DD was performed using standard EUCAST methodology on unsupplemented Mueller–Hinton agar with cefiderocol 30 μg discs. Control agents were included in all tests. MICs were correlated with zone diameters (ZD), and ZD breakpoints (BP) best corresponding to the MIC BPs were determined. Areas of technical uncertainty (ATU) were included where appropriate. External laboratory validation of cefiderocol DD was performed per the EUCAST SOP 9.2.ResultsMIC and ZD distributions for cefiderocol against WT isolates were established. Cefiderocol ZD BPs were set at susceptible ≥22 mm, resistant <22 mm for Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa and ATUs were decided. For Acinetobacter baumannii and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, ZD cut-off values of ≥17 mm and ≥20 mm corresponded to MIC values of ≤2 and ≤0.5 mg/L, respectively. Cefiderocol ZDs for Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 (target 27 mm) and P. aeruginosa ATCC 27853 (target 26 mm) were within ±3 mm of the target values. For DD, there was no problematic variation between discs, media or laboratories.ConclusionsDD is a robust and easy-to-perform method for cefiderocol susceptibility testing. For isolates with results in the ATU, an MIC test should be performed to confirm the results.

Adaptive management of large‐scale ecosystem restoration: increasing certainty of habitat outcomes in the Columbia River Estuary, U.S.A.

Ecological restoration programs in dynamic coastal environments can benefit from adaptive management, including an iterative process for identifying and addressing critical uncertainties. We highlight key developments under the three pillars that have increased the rate of restoration by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP) over 20 years: science, coordination, and management. We show how such programs can be institutionalized to ensure that estuary ecosystems are better understood, conserved, and restored. The principal conservation effort under CEERP is to reconnect historical floodplain wetlands to the mainstem. The program also supports other restoration actions that demonstrate a high potential to benefit ecosystem function and endangered salmon populations; however, there is greater uncertainty regarding these less‐utilized techniques. Through adaptive management, we address technical uncertainty regarding benefits to the environmental resource and programmatic uncertainty pertaining to decision‐making. Here, we examine three periods of CEERP growth to establish how complementary research and restoration actions have improved program outcomes over time. We highlight the tools and processes that were developed and integrated into the program to refine program strategy, improve project design, and maximize ecological benefits. CEERP supported 77 restoration projects and reconnected over 7,000 acres of floodplain habitat to the lower Columbia River between 2004 and 2021. Building on these successes, we outline current plans to better engage landowners and local communities, solicit new project types, and maintain enough flexibility within the program to adapt to new priorities.

Power System Transition with Multiple Flexibility Resources: A Data-Driven Approach

Power systems are transitioning toward having high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) with the help of flexibility resources. However, multiple flexibility resources on the generation, storage and demand sides introduce multiple technical and economic uncertainties, making the transition hard to predict. Moreover, the benefit of these resources in the transition is unclear. To fill these gaps, this paper proposes a data-driven approach to explore the transition to a high VRE share-oriented power system with multiple flexibility resources. This approach generates a wealth of possible transition paths under multiple uncertainties and then uses them to quantitatively analyze the transition. Specifically, the proposed method includes principal component analysis-based path visualization, multiple index-based transition milestone identification, cluster and distance calculation-based key influential factor identification, marginal index-based flexibility resource benefit comparison and Pareto frontier-based path recommendation. Case studies based on the Northwest China power system, which involves wind, photovoltaics and concentrated solar plants, validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and further indicate that flexibility resources increase rapidly with the growth of the VRE share. Of the multiple flexibility resources, storage contributes the most. Key influential factors include the capital cost of VRE and storage along with coal price. These factors should be the focus in a low-cost and low-carbon transition.

How can renewable hydrogen compete with diesel in public transport? Robust design optimization of a hydrogen refueling station under techno-economic and environmental uncertainty

Heavy-duty transport represents nearly 6% of the greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. Renewable hydrogen is a potential option to decarbonize heavy-duty transport, such as buses. Renewable hydrogen for buses promises excellent environmental performance, at the expense of a higher fuel cost, as opposed to a diesel-powered bus fleet. Despite the inherent uncertainty, feasibility studies in this framework generally assume deterministic techno-economic and environmental parameters, which can lead to a suboptimal performance that is sensitive to the random environment. To provide robust design alternatives, we applied robust design optimization on a wind- and solar-powered hydrogen refueling system and a hydrogen- and diesel-powered bus fleet, to optimize the Levelized Cost Of Driving (LCOD) and Carbon Intensity (CI), subject to technical, economic and environmental uncertainties. A fully diesel-powered bus fleet achieves the optimized LCOD mean of 1.24€/km, but it results in the worst LCOD standard deviation (0.11€/km), CI mean (1.33kg˙CO˙2,eq /km) and CI standard deviation (0.075kg˙CO˙2,eq /km) among the optimized designs. To reduce the LCOD standard deviation, CI mean and CI standard deviation, part of the diesel-powered bus fleet is converted into hydrogen-powered buses and the renewable-powered hydrogen refueling station is scaled accordingly. Converting 54% of the diesel-powered bus fleet into hydrogen-powered buses results in a decrease in LCOD standard deviation by 36%, a decrease in CI mean by 46% and a decrease in CI standard deviation by 51%, at the expense of an increase in LCOD mean by only 11%. Future work will focus on the integration of full-electric buses.

P43 In vitro activity of cefiderocol and comparators against Gram-negative pathogens: ARTEMIS study in the UK

ObjectivesCefiderocol (CFDC) is a novel siderophore cephalosporin approved in Europe for the treatment of infections caused by aerobic Gram-negative (GN) bacteria in adults with limited treatment options. The aim of the ARTEMIS study was to evaluate the in vitro activity of CFDC and comparators against recent clinical isolates collected across five countries in Europe. Here we report susceptibility data from isolates collected in the UK.MethodsFrom January to December 2020, GN clinical isolates were collected from hospitalized patients from all infection sites (excluding the urinary tract). Duplicate isolates of the same species from a single patient were excluded. As a prespecified target, each laboratory collected 75 isolates, with: 20 Klebsiella spp., 20 other Enterobacterales, 20 Pseudomonas aeruginosa and 15 Acinetobacter baumannii isolates expected to be included. CFDC susceptibility testing was conducted using disc diffusion (with 30 μg discs) on Mueller–Hinton agar and Sensititre™ broth microdilution (BMD) panels [EUMDROXF; centrally tested at International Health Management Associates (IHMA)]. Susceptibility by disc diffusion was reported using zone diameter breakpoints (BPs) of ≥22 mm (or ≥17 mm for A. baumannii isolates, corresponding to MIC values below the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic BPs of ≤2 mg/L). Comparator susceptibility was determined using custom research use only Sensititre™ BMD panels (CMP2SHIH) according to the EUCAST method for BMD. Antimicrobial susceptibility was interpreted according to EUCAST clinical BPs (v.11 2021).ResultsIn total, 517 isolates were collected from nine UK hospitals, of which: 308 (59.6%) were Enterobacterales [including 147 (28.4%) Klebsiella spp.], 148 (28.6%) were P. aeruginosa and 33 (6.4%) were A. baumannii. The most common sites of infection were bloodstream (n = 245; 47.4%), respiratory tract (n = 158; 30.6%) and skin (n = 59; 11.4%). A high percentage of Enterobacterales (90.2%), P. aeruginosa (96.6%) and A. baumannii (96.9%) isolates were susceptible to CFDC by disc diffusion. By central laboratory testing (MIC), 99.0% of Enterobacterales, 99.3% of P. aeruginosa and 93.9% of A. baumannii isolates were susceptible to CFDC. High susceptibility rates (>85%) were also observed for all comparator agents (Table 1). A total of 32/517 (6.2%) isolates were carbapenem resistant, the majority of which (22/32, 68.8%) were susceptible to CFDC by disc diffusion.Table 1.CFDC susceptibility based on disc zone diameters; CFDC and comparator agent susceptibility based on MIC from BMD (EUCAST clinical BPs v.11, 2021)Susceptibility, n/N (%)CFDC (disc)No. isolates in ATUCFDC (MIC)MEMaC/TCZAMVBI/RCSTEnterobacterales277/307 (90.2)40/307 (13.0)285/288 (99.0)295/308 (95.8)264/308 (85.7)298/307 (97.1)303/308 (98.4)286/306 (93.5)265/307 (86.3) P. aeruginosa 143/148 (96.6) 8/148 (5.4)144/145 (99.3)135/148 (91.2)140/148 (94.6)141/148 (95.3)137/148 (92.6)133/147 (90.5)142/148 (95.9) A. baumannii 31/32 (96.9)N/A31/33 (93.9)30/33 (90.9)N/AN/AN/A30/33 (90.9)30/33 (90.9)ATU, area of technical uncertainty; CFDC, cefiderocol; CST, colistin; C/T, ceftolozane/tazobactam; CZA, ceftazidime/avibactam; I/R, imipenem/relebactam; MEM, meropenem; MVB, meropenem/vaborbactam.aIsolates were defined as MEM-susceptible with a BP of ≤8 mg/L [relating to high-dose extended-infusion (2 g, 3 h infusion) MEM], based on EUCAST recommendations.ConclusionsAmong clinical GN isolates collected from UK hospitals in 2020, a high percentage (98.6%), including carbapenem-resistant isolates, were susceptible to CFDC by BMD. These data support the use of CFDC in patients with GN infections and limited treatment options. The differences identified between EUCAST disc diffusion and BMD using Sensititre™ panels for CFDC highlight that disc diffusion underestimates Enterobacterales susceptibility to CFDC, which is mainly a result of the area of technical uncertainty (where isolates with MIC of 2 mg/L have a zone diameter of <22 mm and are characterized as resistant). This requires further investigation to explore whether the EUCAST zone diameter BP is optimal for CFDC disc testing.

P44 Nosocomial neurosurgical meningitis due to XDR Pseudomonas aeruginosa: clinical experience with cefiderocol

BackgroundCarbapenem resistance due to MBL production is relatively uncommon in Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in the UK. We report a case of post-operative meningitis caused by a New-Delhi MBL-producing (NDM-1) strain, outlining the microbiological and management challenges.Patient caseThe patient was admitted to intensive care after craniotomy and evacuation for an intracerebral haemorrhage. Three weeks later she was febrile due to nosocomial meningitis. Purulent material evacuated from extradural and subdural spaces cultured P. aeruginosa, along with blood cultures and CSF. Susceptibility testing as per EUCAST methodology indicated the isolate was resistant to all β-lactams, aminoglycosides and quinolones but susceptible to colistin. Susceptibility to cefiderocol by disc diffusion was in the area of technical uncertainty at 21 mm (S≥22 mm). Immunochromatographic flow testing (CARBA5 NG Biotech) detected an NDM carbapenemase. WGS (Illumina) confirmed the presence of blaNDM-1 and a plethora of AMR genes responsible for the XDR phenotype {cephalosporins (blaPDC-10, blaOXA-488), aminoglycosides [aph(3')-VIa], quinolones (crpP), macrolides [mph(E), msr(E)], phenicols (catB7) and fosfomycin (fosA)}. No mutations in PBPs associated with resistance to β-lactams or iron acquisition systems involved in uptake of siderophore conjugated antibiotics were identified. The isolate belonged to ST1047, serotype 07, previously identified as a high-risk epidemic clone originating in Myanmar.ResultsTreatment was commenced with IV and intrathecal colistin as well as IV cefiderocol (Figure 1); a novel siderophore cephalosporin licensed for Gram-negative infections with limited treatment options. No synergy between the two drugs could be demonstrated in chequerboard assays. Although CSF sterility was achieved on three subsequent cultures with clinical response, the patient sadly died due to the underlying intracerebral injury. Four other patients subsequently became colonized with this strain and infection control measures (twice weekly screening of all patients, environmental cleaning, water testing, isolation of cases) were instituted, bringing the outbreak under control. Variable number tandem repeat analysis linked these strains to that of another patient discharged from the unit 9 months prior, but not previously reported in the UK.Figure 1.Clinical timeline, culture results, antimicrobial regimens and cefiderocol levels. BC, blood culture; Resp, respiratory specimen; Swab, craniotomy swab; Pus, subdural and extradural pus; Cro, ceftriaxone; Mero, meropenem; Cefid, cefiderocol; Vanc, vancomycin; IT, intrathecal; MU, million units; bd, two times a day; od, once daily.ConclusionsThe first problem encountered was a lack of evidence for the CNS penetration of cefiderocol and efficacy in the treatment of meningitis. The external ventricular drain required to administer intrathecal colistin enabled us to monitor CSF cefiderocol levels. Five CSF samples were shipped at −80°C for analysis in Germany by mass spectrometry. CSF cefiderocol levels of 1.22 μg/mL, 1.34 μg/mL, 2.39 μg/mL, 3.53 μg/mL and 3.90 μg/mL were disappointingly close to the pharmacodynamic breakpoint of 2 μg/mL and only available after treatment withdrawal. Dosing of cefiderocol was initially cautious starting at 1 g/8 h due to a creatinine clearance of 53 mL/min but later increased to 1.5 g/8 h. Further dose increases guided by serum and CSF monitoring could feasibly lead to therapeutic CSF cefiderocol levels. Clinical and pharmacological studies are needed in this area. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to treat a case of XDR neurosurgical meningitis using cefiderocol with precision treatment and achieving microbiological cure.

Using Real Options Thinking to Value Investment Flexibility in Carbon Capture and Utilization Projects: A Review

Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) is one of the key technologies that may help to reduce industrial emissions. However, the deployment of CCU is hampered by various barriers, including high levels of technical, policy and market uncertainty. The real options theory (ROT) provides a method to account for these uncertainties and introduce flexibility in the investment decision by allowing decisions to be changed in response to the evolution of uncertainties. ROT is already being applied frequently in the evaluation of renewable energy or carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, e.g., addressing the uncertainty in the price of CO2. However, ROT has only found a few applications in the CCU literature to date. Therefore, this paper investigates the specific types of uncertainty that arise with the utilization of CO2, identifies the types of real options present in CCU projects and discusses the applied valuation techniques. Research gaps are identified in the CCU literature and recommendations are made to fill these gaps. The investment decision sequence for CCU projects is shown, together with the uncertainties and flexibility options in the CCU projects. This review can support the real options-based evaluations of the investment decisions in CCU projects to allow for flexibility and uncertainty.

Multidisciplinary Assessment of a Novel Carbon Capture and Utilization Concept including Underground Sun Conversion

The current work investigates the feasibility of a novel Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) approach—also known as Underground Sun Conversion (USC) or geo-methanation. The overall objective of the current work is a comprehensive assessment on the technical, economic and legal aspects as well as greenhouse gas impacts to be concerned for establishing USC technology concept. This is achieved by applying multidisciplinary research approach combining process simulation, techno-economic and greenhouse gas assessment as well as legal analysis allows answering questions about technical, economic feasibility and greenhouse gas performance as well as on legal constraints related to large scale CCU using geo-methanation in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. CO2 from the industry and renewable H2 from the electrolyser are converted to geomethane in an underground gas storage and used in industry again to close the carbon cycle. Process simulation results showed the conversion rates vary due to operation mode and gas cleaning is necessary in any case to achieve natural gas grid compliant feed in quality. The geomethane production costs are found to be similar or even lower than the costs for synthetic methane from Above Ground Methanation (AGM). The GHG-assessment shows a significant saving compared to fossil natural gas and conventional power-to-gas applications. From a legal perspective the major challenge arises from a regulative gap of CCU in the ETS regime. Accordingly, a far-reaching exemption from the obligation to surrender certificates would be fraught with many legal and technical problems and uncertainties.

Ship-Based Carbon Capture and Storage: A Supply Chain Feasibility Study

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) calls for the maritime industry to restrict its CO2 emissions by −40% (IMO2030) and −70% (IMO2050). This paper answered the following research question: “Which technical, economic and emissions-related conditions predominantly determine the feasibility of a conceptual supply chain of liquid CO2 that is captured from the exhaust gases of LNG powered offshore vessels?” The captured CO2 is transported to land where it is utilized by a final customer. The study followed a systems engineering approach. Problem definition was followed by a requirements analysis (technology, emissions, economy and operations), design with scenarios and a case study with realistic vessel deployment, modeling and evaluation. All designs have technical uncertainties and financial risks, but the sale of captured CO2 could be a crucial advantage of the proposed concept over other concepts. The main conclusion is that emission and financial targets (payback time) can be met by aligning the offshore transportation distance with the capacity to store CO2 on board and the available means of transport to the final user. Specialists from the vessel owner indicate that capturing, storage and off-loading is likely to have minor implications for the vessel availability and regular operations.

Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways

Non-technical summary Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human–Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We argue that a greater diversity of models ought to be used for sustainability analysis to better address complexity and uncertainty. We articulate the steps to model global change socioeconomic and climatic scenarios with new models. Through these steps, we generate new scenario projections using a human–Earth system dynamics model. Our modelling brings new insights about the sensitivity of sustainability trends to future uncertainty and their alignment with or divergence from previous model-based scenario projections. Technical summary The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the global change scenarios, that is, the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated assessment model (IAM) of human–Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the adoption of established scenarios in new IAMs and (2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different realisations of these scenarios compared to other IAMs due to the new model's structural complexity. The results highlight the importance of enumerating global change scenarios and their uncertainty exploration with a diversity of models of different input assumptions and structures to capture a wider variety of future possibilities and sustainability indicators. Social media summary New study highlights the importance of global change scenario analysis with new, SDG-focused IAMs.

A Comprehensive Review of Control Strategies and Optimization Methods for Individual and Community Microgrids

Community Microgrid offers effective energy harvesting from distributed energy resources and efficient energy consumption by employing an energy management system (EMS). Therefore, the collaborative microgrids are essentially required to apply an EMS, underlying an operative control strategy in order to provide an efficient system. An EMS is apt to optimize the operation of microgrids from several points of view. Optimal production planning, optimal demand-side management, fuel and emission constraints, the revenue of trading spinning and non-spinning reserve capacity can effectively be managed by EMS. Consequently, the importance of optimization is explicit in microgrid applications. In this paper, the most common control strategies in the microgrid community with potential pros and cons are analyzed. Moreover, a comprehensive review of single objective and multi-objective optimization methods is performed by considering the practical and technical constraints, uncertainty, and intermittency of renewable energies sources. The Pareto-optimal solution as the most popular multi-objective optimization approach is investigated for the advanced optimization algorithms. Eventually, feature selection and neural network-based clustering algorithms in order to analyze the Pareto-optimal set are introduced.

SocioDemographic Variables and Social Connectedness as Predictors of Coping Mechanisms in College Students during COVID-19 Pandemic

Purpose: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has left the student community in distress. They have had to vacate their hostels and go home, which has restyled their enjoyable campus life into virtual online classes. The technical glitches and uncertainty of the future kept them in the doldrum. Our study explored the subgroups of socio-demographic variables (gender, educational qualifications, history of mental health condition, current experience of mental health condition, and current accommodation) and Social Connectedness as predictors of coping strategies during the pandemic in university students of Delhi-NCR. Method and Materials: A cross-sectional research design was implemented. Through purposive sampling, 248 students were recruited. The sample consisted of males and females aged 18-34 years (Mean=21, SD=2.86). Data was collected using Google forms consisting of the Sociodemographic Form, The Brief Cope and Social Connectedness Scale. Online informed consent was taken from the participants. Results: Regression results suggested that the current experience of mental health conditions predicted active emotional and avoidant emotional coping strategies. Social Connectedness positively predicted avoidant emotional coping strategy and negatively predicting problem focus strategies in the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant differences were found in active emotional and avoidant emotional coping strategies between students having a past and current history of mental health conditions (anxiety/depression) vs. those who were in sound mental health. Students with past experience of mental health issue were reported to be significantly more socially connected than who did not have any mental health issue. Conclusions: The potential effects of Social Connectedness, a history of the mental health condition on coping strategies during COVID-19, were found to be necessary.

Unattended gap in local adaptation plans: The quality of vulnerability knowledge in climate risk management

A risk-based management approach to climate change is dominant in local adaptation plans integrating climate-science data with place-based vulnerability assessments. While the former has a regional character and uncertainty is approached by means of probabilities and confidence, the latter is context-specific, relies on local knowledge and uncertainty is barely assessed. The objective of this paper is to highlight the relevance of uncertainty analysis in the vulnerability assessment of local adaptation plans by enhancing the Knowledge Quality Assessment tool. This analytical proposal differs from technical uncertainty analysis because it addresses both the social context and the process of knowledge production. Next, the advanced uncertainty dimensions have been applied in the vulnerability assessment used in two Mediterranean adaptation plans. Findings show that institutional arrangements and the role of intermediate parties (contextual dimension) shape the knowledge used, produced, and reproduced (substantive dimension) and hamper community-engaged assessments (procedural dimension). Resulting vulnerability representations, which are poorly grounded on context-sensitive knowledge, compromise the relevance of risk-assessment outputs and local agency in adaptation governance. The present research contributes to the academic study of plans evaluation and of the adaptation science-governance interface at the local scale.

Assessment of Construction Project Complexity

Objective:Project complexity is a crucial factor in project management that presents auxiliary obstacles to reaching project objectives (cost, time, safety, and quality). This study aims at understanding project complexity and factors affecting project complexity. The overall objective of the study is to determine the nature of complexity and characteristics, identify the important complex factors that influence the complexity of the project, factor weight of the complex factors, and develop a proposed construction complexity index (CCI).Methods:According to the literature review, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to measure the affecting factors of project complexity.Results:This paper developed an index to measure complexity based on factor weights called construction complexity index (CCI). The validity of this index was verified by studying 3 cases. The construction complexity index (CCI) proposed here allows measuring the complexity of the projects in Egypt. The results of this paper provide guidelines on how to successfully manage the complexity of the project.Conclusion:Project complexity management relates to the challenge of dealing with technical competence, professional diversity, uncertainties, and unforeseen events in project implementation. Project managers, who are critical to effectiveness or failure, need skills such as adaptation, creativity, and flexibility to meet this challenge. Therefore, this study provides guidelines to help practitioners to develop their capabilities in managing complex projects. Moreover, this paper enables participants to identify factors affecting the complexity of projects and how to calculate this complexity through the complex index. The outcomes of this study can be used by practitioners to develop a complexity assessment and management tool, which would enable industry practitioners to allocate resources effectively on complex construction projects. This research aimed to develop a measure by which the complexity of construction projects in Egypt can be evaluated and establish guidelines on avoiding complexity in projects.

Uncertainty management in engineering-service development: the role of organisational capabilities

PurposeEngineering-service (ES) development is characterised by high uncertainty, the management of which is crucial for the success of the offering during the provision of ESs. This paper studies suitable organisational capabilities to address different uncertainty types.Design/methodology/approachBased on conceptualisation of individual uncertainty types and organisational capabilities, this study investigated their empirical links through six case studies of ES development projects. The data consisted of 64 semi-structured interviews, 10 weeks of observational data and 166 supporting documents describing the projects.FindingsThe findings provide empirical evidence for four distinct uncertainty types (environmental, organisational, technical and relational uncertainty) and the organisational capabilities needed for addressing them. The authors identified unique dominant capabilities for each uncertainty type (commercialisation for environmental uncertainty, coordination for organisational and technical uncertainty, and relational capabilities for relational uncertainty), which were complemented with supporting capabilities, including project management and integration.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the service operations literature by merging previously separate research streams on uncertainty and organisational capabilities in ESs and servitization. Through this merge, this study offers a more coherent understanding by extending previously sporadic insights into specific links between individual uncertainty types and individual capabilities.

Main features of modeling terrigenous deposits in East-Siberia using the example of the Hamakinsky horizon

Background. The article considers the results of updating the geological model of the khamakinskii horizon reservoirs of the Chayandinskoe oid and gas field. The main aim is project the production of the oil rims and form a positive business case of the project. &#x0D; &#x0D; Materials and methods. Conceptual sedimentary model bases on the core of the 14 wells. Updating of the petrophysical model is the key to identify post-sedimentary transformations (like anhydritization and halitization) and the opportunity to correct the permeability trend. The tectonic pattern of the horizon based on the interpretation of 3D seismic data. There are two groups of faults were identified: certain and possible. Neural networks algorithm uses for a creating the predictive maps of anhydritization, which are used in the geological model. &#x0D; &#x0D; Results. Estuary sands influenced by fluvial and tidal processes dominate the khamakinskii horizon. The reservoir is irregular vertically: at the base of the horizon, there are sandstones of the delta front and there are alluvial valley with fluvial channels in the middle and upper parts. Eustary sands eroded by incised valleys (alluvial channels). According to the core and thin section analysis, the main uncertainty is sedimentary transformations of reservoir. It affects the net thickness and then the volume of oil in productive wells. 3D geological model includes the trends of anhydritization and halitization over the area, which makes it possible to obtain a more accurate production forecast. &#x0D; &#x0D; Conclusion. As part of the probability estimate of oil reserves, the main geological parameters that affect the volume of reserves were identified. Pilot project is planning to remove geological and technical uncertainties.

An integrated framework for new sustainable waste-to-energy technology selection and risk assessment: An R-TODIM-R-MULTIMOOSRAL approach

Safe and economical solid and hazardous waste disposal is a serious global concern and challenge. Therefore, the production of new environmentally friendly products for safe waste disposal and its conversion into energy is a major need of governments and companies manufacturing waste management products. An R&D project mainly aims to present an innovation and solve a problem in the real world, and is thus very expensive and riddled with technical complexity and uncertainty. The accurate selection of the project and its risk assessment improve the project's success rate and limit the companies' costs. This article aims to review the important criteria for the accurate selection of new projects for safe municipal solid waste disposal and also to identify and evaluate the risk factors affecting these projects' performance. Herein, a new fuzzy risk-based decision model is presented to achieve the stated goals. This model utilizes MCDM methods and develops them based on R-numbers method which has recently been developed to model the risk of fuzzy numbers in dynamic environments. The proposed model is successfully applied in the Waste Management Organization of Tehran, Iran. The results reveal the superiority of the plasma pyrolysis system project over other projects, e.g., launching power plants based on landfill, plasma gasification, and waste pyrolysis system. The scores of the four technologies evaluated based on the R-TODIM method are1, 0.835, 0.789, and 0, respectively. The results of risk assessment of the plasma pyrolysis system also indicate the importance of risk factors, e.g., access to technology and laboratory equipment and new scientific resources, compared to other risk factors. The scores of the three mentioned risk factors are 4.864, 4.798, and 1.1, respectively.