Taylor Rule Research Articles

How influential are COVID–19 data points? A fresh look at an estimated small scale DSGE model for the Philippines

Shocks emanating from the global pandemic continue to reshape the macroeconomic landscape—dimming national growth prospects, prolonging widespread financial distress among households, firms, and governments and heightening uncertainty. Using a small-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Philippines, we examine the model’s sensitivity to COVID-19 datapoints or extreme observations. Relative to estimates during the base period (2002Q1 to 2019Q4), the inclusion of extreme datapoints worsens the model’s log data density progressively, from the consideration of the first quarter of 2020 to the full sample – an indication that shock propagation mechanisms associated with COVID–19 and other natural disasters should be integrated into the model. Even with the inclusion of said extreme observations, however, the model’s parameters are identified, provided identification schemes are evaluated at posterior median estimates. Judging from the sets of parameter estimates relative to the base sample, the effects of extreme observations are found to be non–uniform, especially the size of the shocks. But there are other parameters, notably those that are embedded in the Taylor rule, which are relatively as stable as some household related parameters. These results imply that the size of standard errors for demand, supply, and monetary policy shocks adjust to partially capture the impact of extreme datapoints.

Contractionary depreciations in Latin America during the 2000s

ABSTRACT This paper explores the effects of currency depreciations on output for the main Latin American countries that have been using Inflation Targeting for almost two decades. We construct VAR models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru for the last two decades and we find that depreciations have short-run contractionary effects in Brazil and Mexico. We illustrate some of the policy implications of that finding by building a simple model, and we show that contractionary effects of depreciations may have destabilizing effects when monetary policy is conducted using a standard Taylor Rule.

The Empirical Relevance of the Shadow Rate and the Zero Lower Bound

AbstractThis paper investigates the evolution of unconventional monetary policies under a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint for the U.S. economy. In doing so, this study provides a comprehensive empirical assessment on the economic and statistical implications of allowing conventional and unconventional monetary policies to work in mutually exclusive union using shadow rates. Shadow rate Taylor rules and policy counterfactuals implied by time‐varying coefficient structural vector autoregression (VAR) models show: (i) one can reconcile plausible economic results using shadow rates when short‐term interest rates approach the ZLB and (ii) unconventional monetary policies are a viable response to recession and facilitate stability during economic recovery.

Taylor rule estimation by OLS

We argue for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation of Taylor rules despite an endogeneity bias. To that end, we show analytically in the three-equation New Keynesian model that the OLS bias is proportional to the fraction of the variance of regressors due to monetary shocks. Using simulations, we show this relationship also holds in a quantitative model of the U.S. economy. Since monetary shocks explain only a small fraction of the variance of typical Taylor rule regressors, the bias tends to be small. Estimating a standard Taylor rule using U.S. data, we find quite similar OLS and Instrumental Variables estimates.

Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound

Abstract This paper examines the Taylor rule in the context of United States monetary policy since 1965, particularly with respect to the zero-lower-bound era of the federal funds rate from 2009 to 2016. A nonlinear Taylor rule is developed which features smooth transitions in the first two moments of the federal funds rate. This flexible specification is found to usefully capture observed nonlinearity, while accounting for the well-documented structural changes in monetary policy formation at the Federal Reserve in the last 50 years, and especially in the recent zero-lower-bound era.

Estimating the variance of a combined forecast: Bootstrap-based approach

This paper considers bootstrap inference in model averaging for predictive regressions. We first show that the standard pairwise bootstrap is not valid in the context of model averaging. This common bootstrap approach induces a bias-related term in the bootstrap variance of averaging estimators. We then propose and justify a fixed-design residual-based bootstrap resampling approach for model averaging. In a local asymptotic framework, we show the validity of the bootstrap in estimating the variance of a combined forecast and the asymptotic covariance matrix of a combined parameter vector with fixed weights. Our proposed method preserves non-parametrically the cross-sectional dependence between different models and the time series dependence in the errors simultaneously. The finite sample performance of these methods is assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate our approach using an empirical study of the Taylor rule equation with 24 alternative specifications.

Exchange rate predictability with nine alternative models for BRICS countries

This paper seeks to add to the literature on short-run exchange rate predictability by focusing on BRICS exchange rates. We utilize both time-varying and constant parameter models, and account for a variety of macro fundamentals, including those suggested by Taylor rules. For the sample of countries, a Taylor rule model with homogeneous coefficients without interest rate smoothing as well as PPP- and UIRP-based models offers a better exchange rate predictability than the random walk model. For this sample of countries, constant parameter models appear to predict exchange rates better than time varying approaches for monthly data but not quarterly. We provide a range of sensitivity analysis, which on some occasions influence the paper's conclusions. We rationalize these results as being partly due to relatively stable relationship among variables (fixed over time-varying) and sample size (monthly over quarterly).

Exchange rate forecasting with real-time data: Evidence from Western offshoots

This study explores the out-of-sample forecasting ability of exchange rate models using real-time macroeconomic data with bilateral exchange rates and short-term interest rates from the U.K. and Western Offshoot countries, that is, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. We employ the Taylor rule with monetary policy inertia to forecast the out-of-sample exchange rate changes across these economies using various methods, such as ordinary least squares, non-linear least squares, and generalized method of moments. Our findings show that the exchange rate forecasting performance of the relative Taylor rule model is mostly superior to that of a naïve random walk process even after utilizing real-time macroeconomic data. By comparing them to the results obtained from ex post revised data, we confirm the desirability of real-time data for estimating the model. Our results also present the invalidity of the assumptions concerning the homogeneous coefficient and symmetric reaction of real exchange rates. Furthermore, we split the sample at the point where some structural breaks occur through a policy interest rate’s deviation from its forecast obtained from the original Taylor rule model and estimate the exchange rate model in each subsample. The superiority of the model persists in terms of its predictability during relatively moderate deviation periods for each of the currency pairs. Using forward-looking inflation/output gaps, including stock prices, and employing alternative econometric approaches, we also corroborate the desirable forecasting abilities for several model specifications.

Composite Memristors by Nanoscale Modification of Hf/Ta Anodic Oxides.

Composite memristors based on anodic oxidation of Hf superimposed on Ta thin films are studied. A layered structure is obtained by successive sputtering of Ta and Hf thin films. The deposition geometry ensured components’ thickness gradient profiles (wedges) aligned in opposite directions. Anodization in citrate buffer electrolyte leads to a nanoscale columnar structuring of Ta2O5 in HfO2 due to the higher electrical resistance of the latter. Following the less resistive path, the ionic current forces Ta oxide to locally grow toward the electrolyte interface according to the Rayleigh–Taylor principle. The obtained composite oxide memristive properties are studied as a function of the Hf/Ta thickness ratio. One pronounced zone prominent for memristive applications is found for ratios between 4 and 5. Here, unipolar and bipolar memristors are found, with remarkable endurance and retention capabilities. This is discussed in the frame of conductive filament formation preferentially along the interfaces between oxides.

Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation of monetary policy rules produces potentially inconsistent estimates of policy parameters. The reason is that central banks react to variables, such as inflation and the output gap, that are endogenous to monetary policy shocks. Endogeneity implies a correlation between regressors and the error term – hence, an asymptotic bias. In principle, Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation can solve this endogeneity problem. In practice, however, IV estimation poses challenges, as the validity of potential instruments depends on various unobserved features of the economic environment. We argue in favor of OLS estimation of monetary policy rules. To that end, we show analytically in the three-equation New Keynesian model that the asymptotic OLS bias is proportional to the fraction of the variance of regressors due to monetary policy shocks. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we then show that this relationship also holds in a quantitative model of the U.S. economy. Since monetary policy shocks explain only a small fraction of the variance of regressors typically included in monetary policy rules, the endogeneity bias tends to be small. For realistic sample sizes, OLS outperforms IV. Finally, we estimate a standard Taylor rule on different subsamples of U.S. data and find that OLS and IV estimates are quite similar.

The European Central Bank: the time is ripe for a major revision of its strategy

A revision of the European Central Bank's (ECB) strategy is urgently needed. For the new strategy, it is important to define the inflation target explicitly in symmetrical terms. Environmental policy objectives can in principle be reconciled with the ECB's mandate as long as they do not conflict with the objective of monetary stability. An essential element of any strategy is a heuristic that makes it relatively easy for the public to monitor whether monetary policy decisions are in line with the mandate. Among the possible heuristics, monetary targeting and the Taylor rule have to be ruled out while ‘inflation targeting’ offers a relatively simple navigation system for monetary policy discussions.

How does the ZLB affect the properties of alternative exchange rate systems?

Abstract We use a standard, two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with multiple shocks and a Taylor rule to study the effects of the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) under alternative international monetary arrangements. Whether the ZLB constraint plays a stabilizing or destabilizing role depends on the exchange rate regime and the type of shock. Different shocks may favor different regimes, and the ZLB may lead to a reversal of the ranking of the regimes for some shocks, especially domestic ones. Notwithstanding such individual shock reversals, when considering the groups of external or domestic shocks or all shocks together in a typical economy that stochastically alternates between the ZLB and the non-ZLB states, we find that the introduction of a ZLB constraint does not by itself suffice to make policymakers rethink their choice of the exchange rate regime.

Risk-premium shocks and the prudent exchange rate policy

Using a medium-size New Keynesian open economy model, we examine the issue of a prudent exchange rate policy when the economy encounters an adverse risk-premium shock. We show that the shock leads to terms of trade (ToT) deterioration and an increase in both the aggregate output and inflation. While examining the choice of an appropriate exchange rate policy to deal with the effects of the shock, analytical results of our baseline model show that neither a fully flexible nor a fully pegged exchange rate policy can yield the desired outcome. In the absence of the supply-side effects of ToT and a cost channel of monetary policy, a managed exchange rate policy can stabilize both domestic inflation and aggregate output. However, in the presence of either a cost channel of monetary policy or supply-side effects of the ToT or both, the central bank faces a trade-off between aggregate output and domestic inflation stabilization. We find that the presence of a cost channel of monetary policy gives rise to a pro-cyclical exchange rate policy. Simulation of a more general model suggests that, instead of using the conventional Taylor rule, the central bank should follow a ToT-augmented Taylor rule, which involves further monetary tightening as the ToT deteriorates. We find that the need for monetary tightening is linked to both the nominal and real rigidities in economy, which gives rise to increased exchange rate volatility. We also briefly consider the case of a productivity shock.

Central bank interest policy: conceptual concepts and socio-economic context

The article reveals the goals and mechanisms of the interest rate policy of the central bank. The role of the discount rate in ensuring financial and macroeconomic stability is shown. The Taylor rule is presented and justified in a modified form, by including the money supply parameter in it. The phenomenon of negative interest rates is revealed.

Gini in the Taylor Rule: Should the Fed Care About Inequality?

This study investigates whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) should care about inequality. We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model, which generates empirically realistic inequalities and business cycle properties observed in the U.S. data. Households in the model economy are subject to the aggregate productivity shock and to the idiosyncratic labor efficiency and preference shocks. In addition, the model distinguishes the extensive and intensive margins of labor supply. We consider the income Gini coefficient in a monetary policy rule to see how an inequality-targeting monetary policy might affect aggregate and disaggregate outcomes, as well as economic welfare. First, we find that a monetary policy rule with an explicit inequality target can be welfare improving, even if inequality becomes volatile. Second, there is an efficiency-equity trade-off: an economy should sacrifice a more volatile output in order to have smaller cyclical variations in its inequality measures. Lastly, when the Fed targets the employment of a specific group of households, it can improve economic welfare and stabilize inequality at the same time.

Interest on reserves, helicopter money and new monetary policy.

We build a nonlinear dynamic model with currency, demand deposits and bank reserves. Monetary base is controlled by central bank, while money supply is determined by the interactions between central bank, commercial banks and public. In economic crises when banks cut loans, monetary policy following a Taylor rule is not efficient. Negative interest on reserves or forward guidance is effective, but deflation is still likely to be persistent. If central bank simultaneously targets both interest rate and money supply by a Taylor rule and a Friedman's k-percent rule, inflation and output are stabilized. An interest rate rule policy is just a subset of a more general monetary policy framework in which central bank can move interest rate and money supply in every direction.

Uncertainty shocks, precautionary pricing, and optimal monetary policy

Existing studies show that, in standard New Keynesian models, uncertainty shocks manifest as cost-push shocks due to the precautionary pricing channel. We study optimal monetary policy in response to uncertainty shocks when the precautionary pricing channel is operative. We show that, in the absence of real imperfections, the optimal monetary policy fully stabilizes the output gap and inflation, implying no policy trade-offs. Our result suggests that precautionary pricing matters only insofar as expected inflation is volatile. Thus, a simple Taylor rule that places high weight on inflation leads to a stabilized output gap, thereby attaining the “divine coincidence”.

Asymmetries in the monetary policy reaction function: evidence from India

Abstract This paper analyzes the reaction function of monetary authority in India from 1997Q 1 to 2019Q 4 using nonlinear Taylor rule. It has been found that monetary policy reaction function (MPRF) in India is asymmetric and is influenced by the state of the economy, determined by the lagged interest rate. To capture such asymmetry, we have used a set of nonlinear models including smooth transition regression (STR) model, threshold regression (TR) model and Markov-switching regression (MSR) model along with the instrumental variable estimation technique. The analysis discloses that the behaviour of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is asymmetric, reacts aggressively to output gap in general and particularly during periods of high interest rate. Furthermore, the RBI reacts more to inflation and output gap during low volatile regimes in MSR models compared to high volatile regimes. We also found that there is a high degree of inertia in the policy rates of the RBI. The study concludes that nonlinear models may not only help in understanding the behaviour of the RBI but also prevent from making incorrect and misleading conclusions in Indian context.

Monetary policy rules: An approach based on the theory of chaos control

This article explores the relationship between Taylor rules for monetary policy and those derived from chaos control methods. A similar structure of both rule types would theoretically support the stabilizing role of the Taylor rule for the control of inflation, which until now has been based on an empirical framework. This link between monetary policy and chaos control rules is illustrated using the OGY method of chaos control, resulting in a control rule that is applied to a monetary model that presents chaotic solutions and becomes stable at an objective equilibrium point with a stable inflation rate.

A fiscal perspective on nominal GDP targeting

AbstractThis paper studies fiscal policy in a model with nominal gross domestic product (GDP) targeting. We find that, with wage rigidity, nominal GDP targeting generates lower welfare losses than inflation targeting and a Taylor rule. On the other hand, adopting this regime makes standard fiscal policy rules, whereby distortionary tax rates are designed to respond to economic activity, dependent on the behavior of inflation instead. We also find that the fiscal multipliers with nominal GDP targeting are smaller than the multipliers under inflation targeting and the Taylor rule. Therefore, nominal GDP targeting does not necessarily outperform other monetary policy rules.